Sean J. Breslin - AvalonBay Communities, Inc.
Analyst
Sure, it's Sean again. Happy to address that; and then Tim or others may have comments as well. But, at the beginning of the year, our expectation across our footprint is that supply would be just over 2% of inventory, about 2.1%. As we massaged it mid-year, both on a sort of bottoms-up basis and a top-down basis with our teams and third-party data sources, the expectation right now, based on what people are telling us, is that 2.1% is still generally intact, but what's happened is, it shifted pretty dramatically. There's probably – out of the roughly 85,000 units that are expected across our footprint for 2017, about 7,000 units have been shifted from the first half to the second half. So the way that plays out is, if you look at the first half of the year, we're running around 44 to 45 basis points in each of the first two quarters, that's going to tick up close to about 60 basis points in terms of supply of stock in each of Q3 and Q4. So, it's basically been back-end weighted, particularly, as you get to Q4, which is north of 60 basis points. I think what that tells us is, based on what we're experiencing and others, that the number is probably not going to come in at 2.1% for this year, it's probably going to come in shy, because everything that was pushed to the fourth quarter, not all of it's going to make. So, our expectation is it probably will come off of that 2.1%, maybe into the high 1% range, 1.9%, 1.8%, who knows. And some of that inventory will get pushed into 2018. So, the peak for supply probably will be in the back half of 2017, first half of 2018 before you start to see any moderation.