Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Avient Corporation's webcast to discuss the company's 2022 fourth quarter and full year results. My name is Katherine, and I will be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. We will have a question-and-answer session following the company's prepared remarks. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the call over to Joe Di Salvo, Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations. Please proceed.

Thank you, Katherine. And good morning to everyone joining us on the call today. Before beginning, we'd like to remind you that statements made during this webcast may be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements give current expectations or forecasts of future events and are not guarantees of future performance. They're based on management's expectation and involve a number of business risks and uncertainties, any of which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by a forward-looking statement. Please refer to the investor presentation for this webcast for a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ. During the discussion today, the company will use both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the presentation posted on the Avient website, where the company describes non-GAAP measures and provides a reconciliation for historical non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. Joining me today is our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Bob Patterson; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jamie Beggs. Now, I'll hand the call over to Bob.

Thanks, Joe, and good morning. Today, we reported fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA of $107 million and adjusted EPS of $0.42. Orders were slightly better than expected in Europe, and Asia and we saw an uptick in December orders for composites, including Dyneema used in personal protection applications. This, in combination with better margins, led to adjusted EPS of $2.69 for the year, which exceeded our prior guidance of $2.60. That being said, the fourth quarter was certainly a challenging one as global demand conditions and inventory destocking negatively impacted nearly every industry and region, resulting in a year-over-year decline in EPS. We focused on controlling costs and reducing working capital. During the quarter, we generated $120 million of free cash flow, ending the year with total free cash of $290 million. We've put this extra cash to work by paying down an additional $200 million of variable rate debt. Net debt to EBITDA leverage ended at 2.9 times, which is below our previous expectations of ending the year at 3.1 times. This is really important as the strength of our balance sheet will be an asset while we navigate through these uncertain times. We have no near-term debt maturities, expect to deliver strong free cash flow in 2023 and an objective to keep leverage below 3 times for the foreseeable future. Despite the challenges in the second half of the year, I'm incredibly proud of what we accomplished in 2022. We completed two transformational deals with the acquisition of Dyneema and the sale of our Distribution business. These enabled us to significantly increase the size of our composites platform, which is a key growth driver for the company; allowed us to strengthen our balance sheet by paying down debt; and improved total company EBITDA margins to 16%, the highest in…

Thank you, Bob. The strength of our culture has certainly been an asset, especially as we have grown through significant acquisitions. It's the foundation of how we execute our strategy and stay the course even when the macro environment is challenging. As Bob shared earlier, the fourth quarter ended slightly ahead of our projections. That being said, demand was down in just about every region. The war in Ukraine and concerns about energy availability negatively impacted consumer sentiment in Europe. China was constrained by its zero-COVID policy, and while the government relaxed its policy during the fourth quarter, the region has yet to recover. Globally, rising interest rates and inflation have further weakened demand. The EBITDA bridge shown here highlights the negative impact of lower demand, as well as higher energy costs and negative foreign exchange. These were partially offset by the net benefit of our pricing actions, a reduction in SG&A costs, as well as synergies associated with the Clariant Color acquisition. Free cash flow generation has been an enabler for our company with this year being no exception. This slide shows our historic free cash flow generation. The bars on the chart represent free cash flow dollars, while the blue dots represent Avient's free cash flow conversion percentages. For comparative purposes, we also added the free cash flow conversion percentage for the S&P 500 as a green line. The data illustrates that we consistently generate strong free cash flow in any macroeconomic environment and there continues to be an upward trend. Looking specifically at 2022, disciplined working capital management resulted in $120 million of free cash flow during the quarter and over $290 million for the full year. This has allowed us to quickly delever to below 3 times, providing us with a strong balance sheet to navigate…

Thanks, Jamie. I'll offer a little more color on our projections for 2023. From a regional perspective, Europe seems to have flattened out and our team reports improving customer sentiment in the New Year. So, that's a good thing. I think inflation and higher interest rates in the U.S. are impacting consumer demand in Q1 to a slightly greater degree than we saw in the fourth quarter. And in Asia, China really is the main driver for us and it's unclear how the economy is going to respond to the relaxed COVID restrictions. We're certainly optimistic that local consumer demand will improve over the course of the year, which could accelerate with government stimulus. In our model for the year, I also think that we've been conservative with respect to margins as raw material deflation should be a positive. And candidly, we are just balancing that with the uncertain demand conditions, which I think is prudent at this time. And I expect to have more clarity on that in the coming months. From an end market perspective, our full year view is that defense, energy and telecom will be positive, whereas we'll likely see further weakness in consumer, building and construction and industrial applications. Now, while some end markets and regions are projected to be down this year, that doesn't change our long-term growth rate assumptions for sustainable solutions, composites, healthcare and Asia. These are the four key growth drivers that we outlined in our Investor Day in December of '21. We discussed how they have contributed to our expansion over the years and how they will be a continued source of growth in the future. Organically and with Dyneema, 2022 really did show the stability and resilience of the composite businesses. There's really a pressing almost urgent need for…

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research. Your line is open.

Thank you, and good morning, and thank you for the recap. I was curious about the destock impact in 4Q and what you're seeing in 1Q, and where does that stand within your portfolio?

I mean, I certainly don't think that destocking is finished. And I think that's yet to play out here in the first quarter. I feel like customers are very cautious with respect to their inventory levels and really don't want to add to their positions, I think, until they've got a better sense that the growth is going to be there and the economy is going to pick up. I do feel like Europe has flattened out to some extent. So -- and as I mentioned in my remarks, I'm just encouraged by sort of the sentiment and the statements that I'm getting from my team and how they feel about conditions there. Whereas I feel like the U.S. has maybe a little bit further to go here in Q1.

But over by the end of the first quarter?

We'll see. I mean, I think that even if destocking ends, that doesn't necessarily means that buying begins. So, I think that's a dynamic that we just have to see play out likely in the first half.

Appreciate it, Bob. And then, looking at the 2023 guidance, interestingly, kind of similar to where the Street is right now. I was wondering how you frame your expectations on the upside and the downside case relative to your point guidance?

I think -- in my remarks, I really commented that I think we're being conservative with respect to margins. I think that there is upside potential with respect to raw material deflation. As you know, I've been here for a number of years and we've typically done very well in that type of an environment. We haven't obviously seen that for a few years, so we'll see how that plays out this year. But then, with respect to the guidance and how we put that together, if you like that, at this point, is sort of a prudent position to take with respect to where demand is. So, at this point, we're kind of modeling the demand is down for the year, as Jaime framed, significantly in the first half, but picking back up in the second half. So, probably the best way I can just frame that, obviously, we've got second half growth assumptions based on the economy getting better at that time.

Thank you so much.

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Michael Sison with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Hey, good morning, guys. In the fourth quarter, what was your volume delta year-over-year? It looks like it was down. And was there a big difference between October, November and December? And then, what's your outlook for the first and second quarter for volume growth or volume declines?

Yes. So, it was about 14% in the fourth quarter. There was -- if you recall from our announcement back then when we were looking at our sort of November view on orders, that was going to be down even more. December ended up being a little bit better than we expected, which really accounts for sort of the change in EPS we delivered versus what we said at that time. When I look at the first quarter, Mike, it's actually pretty similar. The only thing that I'd say is maybe a little different is, the U.S. is down a little bit more, but [you've got] (ph) Europe and Asia as flat, if you just kind of think about how that is proceeding from Q4 to Q1.

Got it. And then...

By flat -- you may be clear, by flat, I mean, similar...

Sequential. Yes. And then, you gave guidance of $125 million EBITDA for the first quarter, implies you need a better second half. And I guess the second half improvement is really just driven by better volume versus anything else, meaning is there other things that could help drive that better second half besides better demand?

Yes. Well, I mean, I do think that one is we have taken some actions to reduce cost, which actually will start to kick in here in the second quarter. So that will actually have a greater effect in the second half than in the first half. I also think it just kind of remains to be seen how things play out from a raw material standpoint, but could see some benefit from that as well. But yes, if you look at how the quarters play out, I'd say it follows really some normal level of seasonality to the extent that this year is normal in that regard, but we'll have to see, with some additional cost actions that help the back half of the year.

Got it. Thank you.

Yes.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mike Harrison with Seaport. Your line is open.

Hi. Good morning.

Hi.

Bob, I had a question on the composites business. The pro forma slide that you show says that it's about a 25% EBITDA margin business for 2022. Is the plan to grow at that kind of mid-20%-s EBITDA margin? Or should we think of there being some operating leverage or price cost opportunity to get margins higher over time? Just kind of curious if you have an EBITDA margin target for composites longer term?

Longer term, it should be higher than 25%. And last year, in particular, our business in Europe was negatively impacted by higher energy costs, including the Dyneema business. And so that impacted margins in 2022. As energy costs abate here or at least flatten out, hopefully that becomes a little bit better comparable in '23. But as you know, what we presented before on a pro forma basis, Dyneema is historically operated above that, and I really believe the same can be true for a balance of our composite businesses as well.

All right. And just curious with your leverage below 3 times, congratulations on the strong free cash flow and working capital management by the way, can you give some thoughts on how you're thinking about capital allocation for 2023? Are you going to continue focusing on getting that variable rate debt paid down? Are you going to be looking at share repurchases? Maybe comment on whether the M&A market is getting more attractive? Any thoughts there would be helpful. Thanks.

Yes. I mean, first and foremost, we have some important investments that we want to make in the business to accommodate and capture some of the remaining Clariant synergies. As you know, there were some that we had delayed as a result of COVID and plan to effectuate those in this year. There's additional investments that we're planning to make to help actually drive growth for our composites. In some cases, we're bumping into some capacity things that we'll solve this year. And plus, I kind of view operating the business, obviously, is priority number one. And candidly, in terms of priorities thereafter, I think keeping that leverage below 3 times takes priority over share repurchases or anything else. We'd be looking to -- every year, we've been increasing the dividend for the last 11 or 12 years. We hope that we could do that again next year, but that would be something we would announce sometime in the fourth quarter.

All right. Thank you very much.

Thank you. And our next question comes from Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I was hoping you could give us a little bit more color just on the order trends as they kind of -- how it developed in January, February and just roughly what you're seeing kind of in terms of early orders for March?

I mean right now, I don't think there's anything unique or special to highlight about what we've seen so far. It's in line with what we're projecting. As is typical for us though, March is typically a bigger month than the other two as we head into the second quarter. So, to some extent that, that is actually baked into our analysis as well. So, nothing really helps to report on January, specifically.

Got it. And then, you talked about some potential upside from deflation or just margin and the conservatism baked in there. Could you just, I guess, give us or help us quantify maybe what are the assumptions underlying your guidance in terms of raw materials, whether it's energy prices or just basically what the assumptions are there? And then, also on the restructuring and savings front, what the kind of expected benefit of that is throughout the quarters?

Yes. Look from an energy standpoint -- and I'm going to kind of give you a global view of this, okay? So, clearly, it varies by region, but total energy costs were up 35%. That was actually about $20 million in '22 versus '21. In fact, we probably could split that out on Slide 17 of this deck that we had that's in the segments right now. We have energy costs going up about 6% in total for '23 versus '22. Obviously, that has some level of skewing here in the first half compared to last year. And then, we'll see how that plays out in the second half. Obviously, right now I would say Europe is feeling a lot better with respect to getting through preponderance of this winter where energy storage are right now and hopefully that provides some relief in that region. And then, look with respect to raw materials, and -- we are, obviously, seeing some deflation as we go into this year. We've modeled a little bit of that. I really couldn't put a quantification to it, but I would say that there is more opportunity there. And as I said in my prepared remarks, we're just kind of balancing that with uncertainty around demand. So, we'll see how that plays out in the next couple of months and hopefully can give some more clarity on that on our first quarter call.

Got it. And then, on the cost savings side?

Oh, I'm sorry if I missed that latter part of that thing. So, in total there is about -- if I just look at reductions in cost, there are some things that we have as inflationary costs. If I look at the net of cost reductions and some inflationary items, that's about $24 million. As I said, that kind of really starts to play in here in the second quarter with respect to the timing of those and then through the balance of the year.

Very helpful. Thank you.

Yes, sure.

Thank you. And our next question comes from David Huang with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Hi, good morning. For '23, what would the carryover pricing be from your prior price increase initiatives?

Yes. We have, I think, in the front half, it's about 6%. If you look at Q1, a little bit lower than that if you get to sort of the full year assumptions.

Okay. And then also, what's your expectation for working capital this year?

Really, the expectation is that we kind of maintain a level of working capital commensurate with sales. So, we look at that as a percentage of sales. I don't really see that changing meaningfully as a percentage through the course of this year. Obviously, we did generate a lot of cash here in the fourth quarter of 2022. I think our free cash flow number for the year is $200 million -- sorry -- for '23. Yes. So, a little bit of working capital on that. But mostly it is EBITDA converted.

So, would working capital be a source of cash or use of cash in '23, I guess?

The model we assume is basically flat on working capital for the full year, David. So, really...

Okay. Thanks.

One moment for our next question. We have a question from Kristen Owen from Oppenheimer. Your line is open.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. So, really strong price cost performance all year and in particular, in the fourth quarter in Color. Just two questions around that. What's working in the pricing playbook? And we've talked a lot about the cost side of the equation in 2023. Given some of the moving parts, how we should think about the spread between price and cost moving throughout 2023?

Yes. I guess the -- remind me if I don't get the second half of your question answered as I address the first. So, I think really one of the things that we did well was that we went early and often really going back to the end of 2020, the beginning of '21. And just we're routinely getting price. And I think that was across the board in all regions and all businesses. So, there wasn't any moment in time where we just really raised prices in a particular quarter. I think we just did that steadily over time. In our prior quarter remarks, we really said that, I think, peaked in the third quarter, obviously, with demand coming down and changes in supply dynamics, and now you're kind of seeing raw material deflation as a result. So that just kind of, I think, puts things into perspective with respect to what we did over time that helped us to deliver the results that we did in '22. So, it wasn't necessarily just something in '22, but things that started even before that. We do have a small, I think, positive price mix number in the model right now. And, look, as I said, that if we do better from a raw material standpoint in '23, that could be better than what we have model today. We're being conservative in that regard.

You touched on sort of the moving pieces, which is the back half of the question, what's the spread throughout the year. But, I guess, if I could ask then just my follow-up is your ability to maintain that degree of pricing capability in a deflationary environment, obviously, from your own cost perspective, you're going to manage what you can, but just how you view that pricing capability in this type of environment?

Yes. I mean, look, it's -- when demand is down, I think that's when you see the most pressure on price. And I think that historically, we have made accommodations where we have needed to or felt like that was prudent to do. We've also visited formulations with our customers to look at lower cost alternatives if that is an option for them as well, which can sometimes maybe a lower price but better mix or a change in mix anyway. So, look, historically, I think we've done very well in periods of deflation in terms of maintaining and/or lowering prices at a slower pace than what we see from a deflationary standpoint. It really does very greatly by end market and application. It's kind of hard to paint a broad sweeping generalization around it, but that's the best thing I can probably say in that regard.

That's very helpful. Thank you so much.

Our next question comes from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Your line is open.

Good morning. I have two questions. First, on the kind of longer-term 20% target, do you think your current portfolio can get there? Or do you need scale or a further shift in mix? Just can you give us a sense of kind of what you think is most likely available path? And secondly, to what degree have you screened your products for PFAS content, particularly with respect to, for example, the EU potential ban on PFAS, how much of your products would be challenged to meet that just in terms of contamination from intermediate chemicals?

One of the things to put that 20% EBITDA target into perspective is if you went back to the initial modeling that we had in '21 for what the business looks like pro forma with Dyneema added and with Distribution out, we were actually pretty close to 18%. That has come down, of course, in 2022 as demand declined in the second half of the year. So, I think you can go back in time and actually see something reasonably recent that actually has us about half of the way there. So, growth is obviously an important part of that characteristic. But I think improving mix now that we have these businesses and they are the fastest-growing being composites and sustainable solutions, which all have higher margins, I really believe that, that 20% is something that we can get to for the company as a whole. Obviously, managing costs in terms of the corporate side and everything else helps in that equation too. And then, I mean, we viewed our sort of PFAS exposure as minimal and specifically in Europe. I don't view that as a significant risk of any kind. We review that as well as a number of other regulatory changes every quarter, and that's been one of the things that we reviewed that we've I think categorized as minimal.

Thank you.

Yes.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Eric Petrie from Citi. Your line is open.

Hi. Good morning, Bob.

Good morning.

Your sustainable solutions sales increased roughly 50% year-over-year. How much of that was attributed to Dyneema? And then, can you talk about kind of the main segment drivers and how they grew on an underlying basis?

Yes. So, Dyneema, for the most part, we have, if you look at the business recall that about half of that is human health and safety for personal protection, then maybe 25% to 30% is in sustainable infrastructure. So largely, we're capturing that as part of the sustainability portfolio, some of the consumer applications that are in consumer products and such may not be in there. And then, if you just look at '23 over '22, sustainable solutions were up about 3.5% on a constant dollar basis. And really, what that reflects is the decline in demand in the second half of the year for even things like food and beverage packaging, which I didn't read through as a direct pull through from consumers so much as I think it was destocking. So, not a lack of interest in those particular applications, but just the overall level of, I think, inventory reduction that was taking place at the time.

Helpful. On masterbatch operations, can you just give us an update in terms of how utilization fared particularly in Europe for the quarter and what you're expecting in the first half?

Could you give me that timeframe or did you say fourth quarter?

Yes. During the quarter, how utilization declined and then what you're expecting for first half from masterbatch operating rates?

Yes. I mean, look, typically, we don't cite utilization rates. One of the reasons for that is that look, if you were to visit our Color facilities, you'd actually see that they're all relatively small. We've got small lines largely for a myriad of niche batch processing applications, often which that have a fair amount of turnover time. So, I don't really look at it so much per nameplate capacity in that respect. Obviously, with demand being down as much as it was in the fourth quarter, you can assume that we had more capacity as a result. I do think that there is opportunity for some capacity reduction in Europe. That's not news to anybody. That's just part of what we had been modeling all along with respect to some of the Clariant synergies. Those are in process right now, but don't really expect to see cost benefit from those until the second half of the year.

Thank you.

Yes.

Thank you. And we have a question from Vincent Anderson from Stifel. Your line is open.

Yes, good morning. So, you mentioned strong personal protection demand in Dyneema out of the gate. Can you just refresh our memory on the order patterns for that business, and so far as what you saw in 4Q might be helping you derisk your 2023 outlook there?

Yes. I mean, look, some of our businesses do have a seasonal pattern to them. And I don't know that, that necessarily applies to -- historically what we've seen for personal protection, I think that is sort of demand agnostic, if you will, across the quarters, it's probably not the right word, but I don't really think there's a seasonal element to that. I do think that there are trends that are resulting in higher levels of personal protection gear, particularly with respect to the military. And war in Ukraine, for example, many countries have been stepping up the level of investment that they're making in their own defense applications, and we are really just starting to see that, I think, in the fourth quarter. In fact, as we were discussing Dyneema through the course of the year, there was some potential that, that might have started to happen earlier. It didn't. But I think maybe Q4, we started to see a little bit of that, and that has got upside potential for us in '23.

Understood. Thank you. That's helpful. And then, going back through your health care exposure, between COVID-related demand, all while integrating Clariant, I know you mentioned elective care as a potential headwind this year. But can you step back and maybe break down your exposure to health care a bit more between what you would view as the more defensive parts of that portfolio and what specifically would be more exposed to household spending power?

Yes. I couldn't actually break the portfolio down for you by elective versus non-elective. And really, it's actually hard for us to even determine where things go. But for the most part, we are in medical devices, drug delivery devices, minimally evasive catheters and applications like that, as well as some pharma and pharma-related packaging, right, which is with respect to health care. So, I do think that there is a fair amount of that, that is exposed to discretionary spending. So, not necessarily just elective procedures, but also the amount of money that people are willing to spend on -- related to health care, almost personal care type items. So, right now, I'm kind of viewing that as a potential challenge for '23. That's what we've actually built into the model. I don't think it looks like it did in 2020 when people just flat out didn't go anywhere. But I think it's a possible challenge for '23.

Okay. Understood. Thank you.

Okay. That was our last question. We appreciate everyone's time and attention this morning, and look forward to updating you on our next call following our first quarter. Thank you. Take care, everyone.

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.