Mitchell Butier
Analyst · Barclays Capital
Thanks, Dean. Starting with Slide 6 and talking through to Slide 9. Sales in the second quarter were up as reported by 3% but down about 2% organically. As Dean discussed, volume was the driver of the organic sales decline, particularly in our Pressure-sensitive Materials and Retail Branding and Information Solutions segments. Volumes for the company were down approximately 5%, dropping off dramatically in June, historically the largest month in the quarter. The volume declines, of course, impacted our second quarter consolidated operating margin. Our operating margin of 8.2% was down 80 basis points from last year, as the negative impact of lower volume was partially offset by a reduction in employee-related costs, including lower expense for incentive compensation. We've talked a lot about rising raw material cost over the last few quarters and they remain high. We've made great progress in offsetting inflation by implementing the productivity initiatives and price increases that we've been talking about during our past few earnings reports. As for marketing, general and administrative expense, it declined versus last year due to lower employee-related costs. Last quarter, we talked about stepping up growth in IT infrastructure-related investments. We're still making investments in our most promising and critical initiatives while we reduce costs across the rest of the company, both through structural changes and general belt-tightening. Before getting into the segments, I want to point out that our year-to-date adjusted tax rate increased from 23% to 29%, largely reflecting an increased portion of our profit now expected to be in higher tax rate jurisdiction. I also want to comment on our year-to-date free cash flow, which included a net outflow in the second quarter, very atypical for us. This net outflow is largely due to the combination of lower operating results, an additional $25 million pension payment and changes in working capital. Now the changes -- the working capital changes primarily relates to the timing of cash payments for inventories. While we reduced inventories in the second quarter from the relatively high levels in Q1, the benefit to free cash flow will occur in the third quarter. These working capital changes and pension payments, while negative to the quarter in the first half, are not expected to impact the full year. Now I'm sure you've noticed that our free cash flow was out-of-sync with earnings in the quarter. This is largely because of reduction in our expectations for employee-related costs in 2011 are noncash this year and will not benefit free cash flow until the first quarter of next year. Turning to Slide 10. Our Pressure-sensitive Materials segment delivered roughly flat organic sales growth, driven by declines in volume, largely offset by pricing. PSM's volume reflected year-over-year declines in all of Label and Packaging Materials regions and the most categories. Volume in Graphics and Reflective solutions was up in the quarter. Dean shared with you our insights to the volumes in the segment, so I won't repeat them here. PSM's operating margin in the quarter was down 20 basis points year-over-year, reflecting the decline in volume and of lower employee-related costs. Sequentially, margin benefited from our narrowing of the price inflation gap. Retail Branding and Information Solutions turned in a 6% decline in organic sales in the second quarter, traditionally, this segment's largest quarter of the year. The lower sales were due to lower unit volume reflecting the softness in the market for our apparel units that Dean discussed earlier. With the decline in volumes, the relatively high operating leverage in this business worked against us this quarter, more than you can see in the 140 basis point drop due to our lower employee-related costs. Dean covered Office and Consumer products, which came in as expected. The second quarter is a seasonally higher quarter for this business relative to Q1, as it includes part of the back-to-school season which concludes in Q3. We continue to expect margins for this business to be in the upper single digits for the full year. And our Other Specialty Converting businesses delivered flat sales growth in the quarter, with margins up 90 basis points from last year. Moving on to the outlook for 2011. On Slide 13, we summarized the key factors that we expect to contribute to our P&L and cash flow in 2011. Slide 14 has our EPS and free cash flow guidance. I'll highlight just a few key assumptions that have changed from what we discussed last quarter. We now estimate organic sales growth in 2011 of approximately 1.5% to 3.5%, a big difference from the 7% assumption we made last quarter. Our current uncertainty about the market causes us to provide a pretty wide range for the top line in the second half. We've increased our restructuring actions since last quarter and have accordingly increased our expectation of the cost to implement these actions. Annualized savings associated with 2011 restructuring actions are expected to total approximately $40 million with about 1/3 of the benefit to be realized this year. We continue to evaluate further opportunities to reduce cost, potentially including additional restructuring action. And we've reduced our estimate for capital expenditures for the year by $25 million. Based on estimated sales and other assumptions, including a list of factors, we now expect adjusted earnings per share in 2011 of $2.45 to $2.75, and free cash flow of $250 million to $275 million. Notwithstanding the recent slowdown, we are confident about our position and prospects. Our businesses have market-leading positions with clear competitive advantages. And even with our lowered guidance for free cash flow in 2011, we will maintain our financial strength, achieving our targeted debt level again later this year and then increasing our return of cash to shareholders. Now I would be happy to take your questions.