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AXIA Energia S.A. (AXIA)

Q4 2025 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 27, 2026

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to AXIA Energia's conference for the discussion of the results of the fourth quarter of 2025. Present here today are Mr. Ivan de Souza Monteiro, President of AXIA Energia; Mr. Eduardo Haiama, Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations; Mr. Antonio Varejão de Godoy, Executive Vice President of Operations and Security; Ms. Camila Araujo, Executive Vice President of Governance and Sustainability; Mr. Elio Wolff, Executive Vice President of Strategy and Business Development; Mr. Italo Freitas, Executive Vice President of Commercialization and Energy Solutions; Mr. Juliano Dantas, Executive VP of Technology and Innovation; Mr. Marcelo de Siqueira Freitas, Executive VP of Legal Affairs; Mr. Renato Carreira, Executive VP of Learning People and Services; Mr. Robson Pinheiro De Campos, Executive VP of Expansion Engineering; and Mr. Rodrigo Limp, Executive VP of Regulation, Institutional and Markets. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded and will be made available on the company's Investor Relations website along with the presentation being shared today, both in Portuguese and English. To view the presentation of the slides in your preferred language, select the corresponding tab located in the upper left corner of the screen, Portuguese screen for Portuguese or English screen for the English version. For those who require simultaneous translation, a tool is available via the globe icon labeled interpretation located at the bottom center of your screen. Upon selecting it, please choose your preferred language. For those listening to the video conference in English, there is an option to mute the original audio in Portuguese by clicking mute original audio. [Operator Instructions] Before we proceed, we would like to clarify that any statements made during this conference call regarding the company's business outlook, projections, operational and financial targets, constitute the beliefs and assumptions of AXIA Energia's executive management as well as on information currently available to the company. Forward-looking statements are not guarantee of performance as they involve risks and uncertainties and therefore, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Investors should understand that general economic conditions and other operational factors may affect the results expressed in such forward-looking statements. We now invite Mr. Ivan Monteiro, President of AXIA Energia to begin the presentation. Please, you may proceed.

Ivan de Souza Monteiro

Analyst

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for attending AXIA's conference call for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the year 2025. This was a year marked by a series of accomplishments and the construction of what we call a base for the company's sustained growth. In the executive Board, the feeling is that the turnaround, the traditional turnaround is concluded. The budget for 2026 already reflects the conclusion of this turnaround. So let's talk a little bit about the deliveries during 2025. There was a consistent reduction of liabilities and the trajectory of the reduction of the compulsory loans and the liabilities related to that as well as PMSO. And here, I'd like to make the first comment about PMSO. The contribution we have today in the use of artificial intelligence in the reduction of PMSO is still small, but there's a huge potential to be tapped into in the coming years. We also began to change the level of investments, the company that invested around BRL 2.3 -- BRL 2.5 million to BRL 3 million per year 5 years ago has a growth trajectory, consolidating at a level above BRL 10 million, BRL 9.6 million in 2025 and now more than BRL 10 million in the projection for the coming years that we released earlier this morning. Another landmark in this consistent deliveries was the agreement with the government and the sale of our stake at Eletronuclear. Those were the 2 important moves in what we call the reduction of risk perceived by our investors when they decide to acquire assets, both by buying shares or fixed income assets by AXIA. Another important evolution relates to energy allocation and portfolio management and our relationship with the customers. Those are the highlights. In capital allocation and growth, I'd like to…

Eduardo Haiama

Analyst

Thank you, Ivan. Good morning, everyone. Before we begin the presentation on Slide 7, I would like to point, as Ivan just mentioned, that for us, it's the conclusion of the turnaround and a step moving forward reflects in the publication of the annual results. I think it must have been the first time that the company was able to publish with quality, the results in the month of February. So when our results have always been published at the end of March or by mid-March, of course, this is not only an accounting -- a work of the accounting department, but it's a huge work done by the entire company, generating controls, processes, getting things to flow more smoothly, and that results in this publication and this release in the month of February. Now getting into Slide 7 and the key highlights. Part was already mentioned, the allocation of the energy portfolio and the execution of the capital allocation methodology. with record dividends of BRL 8.3 billion, but also the consistent increase in investments, winning again a series of lots in the transmission auction in 2025 and reaching the highest investment level since 2015 in the company. In terms of portfolio management, we completed the sale of the thermal power plant and executed the sale of our stake at Eletronuclear in efficiency, in addition to PMSO that Ivan already discussed, we are developing supplier chains that are international. And we are certain that we'll be a lot more resilient when this investment level grows further as we foresee. And in people and culture, something we're very proud of, and I'll talk more about later, was the launch of the first stock purchase program with a very high participation of our employees, showing their confidence in the path that the…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question, Daniel Travitzky Safra.

Daniel Travitzky

Analyst

I have 2 questions on my side. The first about the very high income that you reported this quarter. I'd like to ask how this result may reflect in future dividend payout and capital allocation for the company? That would be my first question. And the second question, looking at the auction pipeline that we have this year, both in generation [ LR caps ] in March and in the future for batteries and the transmission auctions that will be very relevant this year, I'd like to understand how the company sees these opportunities. If you can give us some color on how you see that.

Ivan de Souza Monteiro

Analyst

Thank you, Daniel. So to begin, in terms of capital allocation and dividends, we worked a lot in the company's structural results and its predictability. And that makes us very comfortable with what we may come to capture and what we did capture in terms of energy price. So those conditions that were under the management's -- the directors' management were worked on and the prediction for the future don't give a lot of highlights for the net income of the fourth quarter. But I would like to mention the company's consistent results since it was privatized -- with a cap an intense work to reduce liabilities, reduce PMSO, adjust the strategy and also a change in culture that was a lot -- detailed a lot by Haiama. But I'll turn the floor to him, and then Elio to talk a little bit about our strategy in the future auctions, both on battery and capacity auctions and transmission. Haiama, please.

Eduardo Haiama

Analyst

Thank you, Daniel. As for dividends, considering what happened with the activation and what was acquired, it doesn't change with our capital allocation methodology. We have that capital allocation in dividends and buyback or new investments, we always look at a 5-year horizon based on a prediction of cash flow leverage, always using conservative prices for the uncontracted energy part. And with that, we check whether or not we have room for that to allocate more capital, paying more dividends or buybacks or more investments. So the income itself that was due to this IR activation is just a constructive view on the very long term for the company, not on the short term. On the short term, this methodology is what goes. I mean, as Ivan talked about, we have a lot of things that help in our risk perception, but profit or income alone is not the driver to pay out more or less. That's our view. It's always from the 5-year view.

Elio de Meirelles Wolff

Analyst

Thank you, Daniel. Good morning, everyone. We mentioned in the past that the transmission auction activity is a continuous activity that we do. Since 2023, we've been actively participating in the auctions. If you have an order of magnitude, we offered about 39 lots transmission since 2023. The group, the AXIA Group participates and always being competitive with a lot of responsibility and a strong focus on value generation. We participated in 34 of these 39. We study all of them, if not all, we may not participate in some, but we always do that based on technical objective factors. In the 34 that we participate, we succeeded in 9. So that's the recent history. Of course, that this background, the future is not based on that. But that shows how competitive we are. And we've been growing our capacity to be competitive, especially in terms of engineering and supply. That's essential. The company's DNA with its engineering capacity. And that is something we bring to 2026, of course. And in '26, we generate in a more organized way, at least 3 auctions, maybe even 4, 5. In March, there are 2 already we counted right. The first one is the capacity auction where we are able to participate on the hydropower plant. We see that we're very good -- in a very good line. And Ivan mentioned that about the pipeline. In the hydropower capacity alone, we look at the potential income in the medium, long term, maybe even exceeding 6 gigawatts. And a portion of that, of course, will participate and try to enable these projects in the auction of March 18. Transmission, it's the same line, as we mentioned. We always study all of the lots. There's an auction now March 27 and another prescheduled for October. And there may be a sub auction or something with a different player that may occur in April or May, and we may look at it as well. But this is a continued activity. We're always looking into it and studying. And once we get close to the auction, we decide how we're going to participate or which lots we're going to actively bid on. We always say that very comfortable, always focused on value generation. And finally, without a date yet, but already expected, there will be the battery auction that we're also looking -- we have been studying it since the pipeline, we already exceeded with 4 gigawatts of pipeline in batteries. We want to see the rules and understand how much of these 4 gigawatts we are actually able to offer. But the group has been increasing its pipeline progressively to be able to enable this with disciplined value generation and the auctions are a wonderful opportunity to materialize those investments. I think that's it.

Operator

Operator

Next question, Bruno Amorim from GS.

Bruno Amorim

Analyst

Congratulations on the results I have 2 questions. The first one about the energy price dynamics. I understand that there is a view that structurally, the energy price is going up and it may continue to increase. But on the other hand, we are having a drier year in the cyclic point of view that puts prices at a higher level. So my question is, how have you been operating in this environment? Are you making the most of the cyclic dynamics when it's more favorable? Or is the strategy still to wait for a materialization of higher prices looking forward? So how do you think about the cycle in the short term and the long term? And the second question is to understand as you can open this, but how do you see the opportunities coming from data centers, if you see -- if you want to have discussions going on or if you understand this as an opportunity for the country and the industry, the demand of electricity over the next 3 to 5 years? Or is it too soon to tell?

Ivan de Souza Monteiro

Analyst

Thank you for your question. I'll turn the floor to Pedro to talk about this view. And then LPSMG, I'd like to hear from Italo as well, and he can complement to our strategy for data centers, but thank you for your question.

Rodrigo Nascimento

Analyst

Thank you, Bruno. Actually, we have been facing in recent years a change in the dynamics of price in the energy market. In some period in '22, '23 until mid-'24 price -- a vision of prices very close to the lowest levels, including longer-term view. And starting in the second half of 2024, we saw a big change and something that didn't exist so much in our industry as the volatility in the same day in terms of reliability, flexibility, the prices ended up not reflecting that. There was no our metering. But even in the first few years, we didn't have this perception. I also think that the move to reduce subsidies going in the right decision to have a better signaling of prices have also contributed to this change of perception in the market. We came from a very different level that the industry saw in '23 and '24 for coming years compared to what we have today. And we see that not only in this current year, but 1, 2, 3 -- and naturally, for this year, as you said, we are a little bit more pressured in terms of price because of the hydrology. Until January, we had a weak rain season. In February, we had an increase that I think brought some break for the industry, more reliability for the year, but nothing so far that brings any structural transformation in terms of prices throughout the year. And on our side, in portfolio management, we do consider all of these scenarios. It's a fact that now we have a lot more volatility than we had in the past. And that means that prices in the next 1, 2 months may shift up and down strongly. And a point that we consider with a lot of…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Next question, Fillipe Andrade, Itau BBA.

Filipe Andrade

Analyst

I'm here with the AXIA team. I'd like to address 2 topics, if I may. First, talking about trading. The company presented a contribution market on the ACL, the short-term market, close to BRL 300 per megawatt hour in our view that is closer to BRL 30 per megawatt hour. So considering the price level that we're seeing in the first quarter of '26, what is the level that the company sees in terms of modulation, the same level or any change? And how do you see the impact of El Nino in the prices in the second half of the year? And finally, also, if you can talk about the best expectation of the management for a potential conclusion of the Novo Mercado migration process.

Ivan de Souza Monteiro

Analyst

Fillipe, as relating to trading, I will ask Limp's, I'm sorry, Haiama's participation for Novo Mercado migration. Haiama, Camila, please feel free.

Eduardo Haiama

Analyst

Fillipe, first, you were asking about modulation. In the fourth quarter, we even have in our presentation in the attachment that the fourth quarter generated close to BRL 15 per megawatt hour for the hydropower plant. And when you sell that to energy that we have allocated, it will run at around BRL 300 million, maybe a little bit less in the quarter. And the trend going forward, obviously, as the system is have more insertion as Itau said, with more intermittent sources and demands that may have peaks due to heat waves and it may grow over time. But going forward, I'd like to ask the expert to talk about this a little bit more. Yes, even as I mentioned earlier, today, we have an increasing presence of this daily modulation, the price volatility at different hours of the day. For example, in February 4, that was a very atypical time. At this time, it got to BRL 1,600 and modulation exceeded BRL 40. And today, we're looking on average BRL 15 to BRL 20, a slight increase in this first quarter compared to the fourth quarter. And the trend is for it to grow in the next few years. Of course, that new technologies, capacity auctions, storage systems in the future end up maybe attenuating or mitigating this in a relevant way. But today, the price indication and the daily PLD results bring this effect in modulation. That's always positive for hydropower plants because of the role they play and the characteristics of that source that is the only one and in fact that provides this flexibility that the system requires so much and this must be valued. Now talking about Novo Mercado, Fillipe. Our expectation in April 1 is to have the general meeting with the Class A B preferred shares and common shares. I think the market showed a little bit of what the meeting should be. I think it was very well received. The share prices went up. And I think even you and the analysts present here, I think everybody understood this movement, but it's part of the normal natural move in the company's current stage. So we are relatively confident with this process, expecting to be able to unify these, but only with the future agenda going forward. Camila, if you'd like to add. Camila Gualdo Araújo: I think Haiama mentioned it well. We believe in the model that we are using for the approval. The meeting in April 1. It's not -- it's April fool, but it's a real deal. We're going to hold the 3 meetings with a positive expectation considering the results we're seeing and the comments we're receiving about this move. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question, Raul Cavendish from XP.

Raul Cavendish

Analyst

Can you hear me well?

Operator

Operator

Yes, we do.

Raul Cavendish

Analyst

I have a question here. Thinking about the energy allocations that you disclosed in your materials and considering GSF and so on. I've been noticing difficulty to reconciliate the volume of energy sold in the quarter versus the allocations that you published ahead of time. Is there any element that is not captured in the disclosure of allocation that impacts the energy sale volume, and we're not able to model, for example, trading activities or something like that to help us be more accurate in our modeling over the quarters, even if the annual view doesn't really change that much.

Ivan de Souza Monteiro

Analyst

Thank you, Raul. I'll turn to Haiama.

Eduardo Haiama

Analyst

Thank you, Raul. There's an information here that's very confidential that's our assured energy. When we disclose the information, we disclose what's in the MRE. That's what we've included in the slide even. So from physical assurances allocated with the projected GSF. So that's a difference that occurs. As of '27, this difference won't be there anymore. So that's going to be easier. But in addition, and we have to look at how you're modeling it. Remember that our contracts that are on the ACR, the long-term contracts with the distributors all of them have the GSF, some 92%, others 100%. And that, of course, has an impact when we do this calculation. So that may be generating some desreption when you make your projections compared to what's realized. But without that, everything that we release in liquidation and sales is what's, in fact happening, but there may be these differences here from the projection to what we see. I don't know if it's clear, Raul.

Raul Cavendish

Analyst

Yes, it is Excellent. And then I think, finally, an additional question. So in addition to the LR cap of the hydro products, we have the storage, maybe I'd like to take Elio's and his team's perspective. And the group's mindset about the storage auction, if it makes sense and if this recent discussions about the battery, if it's on this range of [ 1.2 ] to [ 1.7 ]. If you think it's adherent or do you see any discrepancy considering the CapEx of batteries anyway, to hear a little bit of your view.

Ivan de Souza Monteiro

Analyst

Thank you, Raul. Please, Elio.

Elio de Meirelles Wolff

Analyst

Okay. So Raul, so this is a topic about this auction, this capacity auction. But what we see is that the system needs more and more power. So that's the first auction to be objective. It's not the end of it. There will be others -- other opportunities to sell our capacity and our potential -- our pipeline here. Batteries, it's still too soon to fine-tune what we may or may not consider. It's different. There's a lot of suppliers. We've been working alongside a lot of them for a year or two trying to develop this, and we will evolve the way we participate and, of course, as long as it makes sense for the group. But it's still too soon to discuss this on the battery.

Operator

Operator

The questions-and-answer session is concluded. We would like to turn the floor to Mr. Ivan Monteiro to deliver the company's closing remarks.

Ivan de Souza Monteiro

Analyst

I would like to thank you all for your participation. Any additional doubts, please contact AXIA'S IR department. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

AXIA Energia conference is now closed. We thank everyone for their participation, and wish you all a good day. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]