Jeff Campbell
Analyst · KBW. Please go ahead
Well. Thanks, Toby, and good afternoon, everyone. We’re off to a solid start to 2017. Our earnings per share for Q1 was $1.34 and we’re encouraged by the momentum we see in our revenue performance. As you know, accelerating revenue growth through capturing opportunities across our diversified business model has been a key priority for us. In addition, we’re seeing the benefits of our cost reduction efforts and continue to return significant amounts of capital to shareholders through our dividend and share buyback programs. In many ways, our Q1 results show the steady progress we’re making on the range of growth and cost initiatives that we have put in place over the last couple of years and that we reviewed at our Investor Day last month. These initiatives have been supported by the spending that we did over the last two years. We expect that these efforts will all come together to help us produce steady results during 2017 and position us well for the longer-term. Going forward we remain focused on delivering improvement in EPS as we progress through 2017 and beyond this, we’re equally focused on our strategies to generate sustainable revenue and earnings growth. While it is still early in the year and we have work to do, our first quarter is a positive start to hear. With that, let me turn to the detailed results, starting with the summary financial performance on Slide 2. Revenue for the first quarter was down 2% reflecting lower discount revenue and net interest income following the Costco portfolio sale in Q2 of last year. When excluding FX and Costco related revenues in the prior year, our adjusted revenue growth accelerated modestly to 7% on a sequential basis. The first quarter also included as expected given the volume growth we’re seeing a greater year-over-year increase in provision and rewards than we experienced in the fourth quarter. Net income was down 13% versus the prior year first quarter. As we continue to grow over the co-brand exits from 2016. As we move through 2017, we expect net income and EPS to grow due to the benefits from our cost reduction initiatives and the seasonality of revenue. Of course we expect a return to year-over-year net income and EPS growth as we get to the second half of 2017. Earnings per share of $1.34 reflects our net income performance and also the benefits of our strong capital position. Over the last year, we returned $4.1 billion of capital to shareholders through our share repurchase programs, which has resulted in a 6% reduction in average shares. These results brought our ROE for the 12 months ended in March to 25%. So with that is the summary, let me now turn to a more detailed review of our results starting with billings. You can see on Slide 3 the world wide FX adjusted billings were flat in the quarter versus the prior year. To get a better understanding of the underlying trends on Slide 4 as we have in recent quarters, we show billings growth adjusted for both changes in foreign exchange rates and the impact of Costco. Here you can see that adjusted billings growth accelerated modestly to 8% in the quarter. The acceleration was broad based. As you can see in both the segment view of billings on Slide 5 and the geographical view of billings on Slide 6. Across all of these views, I would point out a number of trends in our billings performance this quarter. In the GCS segment, we continue to see strong growth in the small business and middle market customer segments. Adjusted volumes in the U.S. grew at 11% in the quarter and outside the U.S. volume growth accelerated. In the large and global GCS customer segment spending volumes were up a bit as compared to last year. As we have said for a while now we would expect that this will remain a slower growth segment absent an uptick in travel and entertainment spending by larger corporations, which we have not yet seen. The U.S. consumer segment growth rate was consistent with Q4 2016. We are pleased with the impact of the initial changes we made last October in our U.S. consumer platinum product. It’s too early to comment on the most recent changes to the product as they just took effect at the end of the first quarter. In the international consumer and network services segment the billings growth rate improved sequentially to 8% on an FX adjusted basis. Looking at the two parts of the segment, volumes from proprietary cards grew at 11%, reflecting continued strength in several international markets. In GNS, the FX adjusted growth improved from 4% in Q4 to 6% in Q1, as we saw sequential improvements in all of EMEA, JAPA and LACC. GNS plays an important role in strengthening our global network. I would remind you though that going forward as we previously discussed we do expect pressure on GNS volumes due to the changing regulatory environment specifically in the EU, Australia and China. Given the lower margins we are in GNS however, this will have a less bottom line impact. Moving to international in total, you can see on Slide 6 that our billings growth rates remained strong. As we saw our fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit in FX adjusted terms growth and overall international accelerated to 13% FX adjusted growth. The improvement in international is broad-based, with strength in both our corporate and consumer businesses. As we look at a few key markets for example we see continued strong FX adjusted growth in the UK up 17%, in Mexico of 15% and in Japan also up 15%. Finally I would briefly note a couple of calendar impacts to growth rates in the quarter. As I mentioned at Investor Day, the leap day in February 2016 negatively impacts growth rates this quarter by about 1%. Offsetting that somewhat we did see a benefit in March is the Easter holiday mood from Q1 last year to Q2 this year. In many international markets there is an extended holiday around Easter, which impacts volumes. Stepping back we are encouraged by the momentum we see in the adjusted billings growth rate. The improvement is coming across our segments globally and reflects returns on the investments we have made over the last couple of years. We still have work to do. And the competitive environment especially in U.S. consumer remains intense, but we are focused on driving more volume onto our network from our wide range of growth opportunities. Turning now to our worldwide lending performance on Slide 7, our total loans were up 12% versus the prior year on an FX adjusted basis, slightly below the growth rate we saw in the fourth quarter of last year. As we have for several years now, we continue to grow U.S. loans faster than the industry, driven primarily by our success in growing loans from existing customers. During the first quarter, more than 50% of the growth in U.S. consumer loans came from existing customers, consistent with the trend we described at our Investor Day. As we look forward, we believe that we can continue to grow loans above the industry rate given our unique growth opportunities, while maintaining best in class credit performance. Looking at the right hand side of the slide, you can see that net interest yield has been steadily expanding and rose again sequentially in Q1 to 10.3%. Yields typically widen in the first quarter due to seasonality. But the steady trend we are seeing is driven by the impact of a number of factors, including a shift in mix to non-cobrand customers, who are more likely to revolve, less revolving loans at introductory rates. Some specific pricing actions, and of course a benefit from increases in bench mark interest rates without an offsetting change to our personal savings deposit rate. We do expect deposit rates will move up overtime, but we remains to be seeing when that change will occur and how much rates will increase. Before turning to provision, let me touch on our credit metrics. Delinquency in last metrics across our lending in charge card portfolios continued to be very strong. And the worldwide loan portfolio, you can see that the delinquency rate was flat to Q4 and loss rates increased slightly both sequentially and year-over-year. The modest increase and lending loss rates versus the prior year is in line with our expectations and consistent with our view, the loss rates would begin to increase due to the seasoning of the new accounts and the shift towards non-cobrand products, which have a slightly higher right of way rate, but also generate greater yield. And this quarter’s lending results reflect that dynamic. The combination of continued strong loan and receivable growth and modestly higher year-over-year loss rates, including in certain charge card segments, has caused our provision, as expected to grow well above the growth rate in loans as you can see on Slide 9. As we look forward to the balance of the year, we expect that provision will continue to grow faster than loans, a trend that is fully contemplated in our earnings expectations. Turning to our revenue performance on Slide 10. FX adjusted revenues were down 2%, when we adjust for both FX and Costco related revenues to get at the underlying trend, revenue grew at 7%. I will say that adjusted revenue growth in the quarter outperformed our own internal expectation as in the month of March billings and revenue both came in above our plans. We are pleased with the momentum in our adjusted revenue growth rate. And we are encouraged to begin the year bit above the full year range, we’ve provided at Investor Day of 5% to 6% adjusted revenue growth. Looking at the components of revenue in more detail. Discount revenue declined by 3%, but increased by 6% on an adjusted basis. The discount rate in the quarter was 2.45% up 1 basis point year-over-year, due to lower rate volumes coming of the network more than offsetting the impact from merchant negotiations mix and the continued rollout of OptBlue in the U.S. Well the discount rate increased year-over-year, the ratio of discount revenue to build business declined by 4 basis points, which I welcome back to in just a minute. Net card fees grew by 7% in the quarter, reflecting continued strength in our premium U.S. portfolios including Platinum, Gold and Delta, as well as growth in key international markets like Japan and Australia. The Platinum fee increases we announced in March are not yet impacting the results as the fee increase for existing customers does not go into effect until September. Other fees and commissions grew 5% in the quarter, while other revenue declined by 16%. Other revenue growth is impacted by the sale of a small business, which provided back office systems to run third party loyalty programs, during December 2016. Net interest income is down 5% due to lower average loans, but increased 15% on an adjusted basis driven by the 12% growth in adjusted loans in the higher net interest yield that I mentioned previously. Coming back now to the ratio, discount revenue to build business on Slide 12. You can see that this ratio was down 4 basis points versus the prior year, while the reported discount rate was up one basis point. The decline in the ratio, discount revenue to billings this quarter is driven by a shift in billings mix towards GNS and higher incentive payments to cobrand and corporate card partners as the volumes in those categories accelerate. Turning now to our total expenses on Slide 13. Our expenses were 1% higher than the prior year during the first quarter, though I’d note that performance trends varied across the different expense lines. At Investor Day, we highlighted that are spending on card member engagement is reflected across marketing and promotion, rewards and Card Member services expenses. And I’ll discuss the changes in those P&L lines on the following slide. Moving to operating expenses, total operating costs during the quarter were down 3% versus the prior year. I’d remind you that in the prior year operating expenses were impacted by $127 million gain from the JetBlue portfolio sale and an $84 million restructuring charge. We continue to make progress on our cost reduction initiatives and believe that we are on track to remove $1 billion in the company’s cost based on a run rate basis by the end of 2017. As we highlighted at Investor Day, we expect the year-over-year decline in operating expenses to be larger as we exit 2017 than what we saw in Q1. Our effective tax rate during the quarter was 31.9%, which is below our full year 2017 expectation of 33% to 34%. The Q1 tax rate benefited from some discrete tax items, we continue to believe that our full year rate will be more in line with our 33% to 34% expectation. Moving to the summary of our Card Member engagement spending on Slide 14, total engagement spending in Q1 was $2.8 billion or 4% higher than the prior year. Looking at the components of that spending as expected, M&P was down 4% versus the prior year. These results are consistent with our comments at Investor Day about anticipating a reduction in our M&P spending versus 2016 levels. We continue to focus on improving the efficiency of our marketing spend by using our scale to consistently drive cost savings from our ongoing marketing operations. We also continue to shift our focus towards existing card members and increase our use of digital channels both of which can add efficiencies. With all these efforts, despite a lower level of marketing spend, we acquired more new cards during the first quarter than we did during Q4, including 1.7 million cards across our U.S. issuing businesses and 2.6 million on a worldwide basis. Over 60% of the Global Consumer cards we acquired in the quarter came through digital channel. And digital is particularly important as you know, for acquiring new millennial card members. And going forward, we continue to anticipate that full year 2017 M&P will be lower than 2016 and more similar to the full year 2015 levels. I’d note however, that the ultimate level of marketing expenses will be influenced by our financial performance and the opportunities present in the marketplace. Moving to rewards, consistent with our Investor Day expectations, rewards expense was up 6% despite a small decline in proprietary billing volumes versus the prior year. Adjusting for the Costco cobrand volumes in the prior year, rewards expense would have increased in the quarter by 20%, while adjusted proprietary billings grew by 6%. This growth in rewards resulted in a ratio of rewards cost to proprietary billings of 87 basis points. The greater year-over-year increase in reward expense during the quarter reflects the impact of the enhancements to our U.S. platinum products that we implemented at the beginning of Q4 2016, as well as continued strong growth our Delta co-brand portfolio. Cost of card member services increased 14%, reflecting higher engagement levels across our premium travel services including airport lounge access and co-brand benefits such as First Bag Free on Delta. As we highlighted in Investor Day, this is an area where we can offer differentiated benefits and we’ll continue to invest as evidenced by the rollout of the new Uber benefits on our platinum cards a few weeks ago. Turning now to Slide 15 and touching on capital. We continue to use our strong balance sheet position to return a significant amount of capital to shareholders. Over the last nine quarters, we have returned a 101% of the capital we have generated. I think this shows the commitment we have over time to leveraging our business model and capital position steadily create shareholder value. Now we of course just completed our submission for the 2017 CCAR process earlier this month. And as I’m sure you all aware the process continues to revolve each year. We remain confident in the strength of our business model and our ability to drive shareholder value to capital returns. Now of course, we also use capital to support business building activities such as growth and our loan balances, potential M&A activity. In addition to returning capital through dividends and share buybacks. I’d also remind you that our capital plan for the upcoming year will be dependent upon the Fed review and we expect to hear back from them about our submission in June. Step in back, over the past several years we have embarked on a serious of initiatives to reposition the company drive sustainable revenue growth. Those efforts which we covered in Investor Day, include, amongst others, focusing on further penetrating commercial payments by leveraging our small business and middle market assets on our global commercial segments, driving more organic growth through expanded engagement with existing customers, better leveraging our digital and big data capabilities for new customer acquisition and other targeting, growing our merchant network and pursuing lending expansion opportunities. These action for targeted to provide a mix of returns over the short, medium and longer-term. While the impact from those efforts, we’ll play out over time. We are encouraged with the trend that we have seen in our business metrics and revenue growth over the past several quarters and believe that these initiatives are driving real momentum. As we look out to the balance of the year, we believe that our outlook for the full year 2017 EPS to be between $5.60 and $5.80 remains appropriate. As we discussed at Investor Day we anticipate that EPS will grow through the year and as we have in the past, we will continue to balance delivering earnings to the bottom-line and investing for the moderate to long-term. We do believe that our 2017 plans appropriately balance shorter-term profitability with the steps we need to take to generate sustainable revenue and earnings growth over the longer-term. With that, let me turn it back over to Toby and we’ll move to Q&A.