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Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI)

Q3 2017 Earnings Call· Thu, Jun 29, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to Acuity Brands Fiscal 2017 Third Quarter Financial Conference Call. After today’s presentation, there will be a formal question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Today’s conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. Now, I would like to introduce Mr. Dan Smith, Senior Vice President, Treasurer and Secretary. Sir, you may begin.

Dan Smith

Analyst

Thank you and good morning. With me today to discuss our third quarter results are Vern Nagel, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Ricky Reece, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We are webcasting today’s conference call at acuitybrands.com. I would like to remind everyone that during this call, we may make projections or forward-looking statements regarding future events or future financial performance of the Company. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties such that actual results may differ materially. Please refer to our most recent 10-K and 10-Q SEC filings and today’s press release, which identify important factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those contained in our projections or forward-looking statements. Now let me turn this call over to Vern Nagel.

Vern Nagel

Analyst

Thank you, Dan. Good morning everyone. Ricky and I would like to make a few comments and then we will answer your questions. I know many of you have already seen our results and Ricky will provide more detail later in the call, but I would like to make a few comments on the key highlights for the third quarter of 2017. Net sales for the third quarter were a record $892 million, an increase of 5% compared with the year ago period. Reported operating profit was $131.5 million compared with $121 million in the year-ago period. Reported diluted earnings per share was a $1.90 compared with $1.69 in the year-ago period. There were adjustments in the year ago quarter for certain special items as well as certain add-backs made in both quarters for our results to be comparable between periods as Ricky will explain later in the call. And adding back these items, one can see adjusted operating profit for the third quarter of 2017 was $148.3 million compared with adjusted operating profit of $146.1 million in the year-ago period, an increase of 2%. Adjusted operating profit margin was 16.6%, a decrease of 60 basis points compared with a record quarterly margin reported in the prior year. Adjusted diluted earnings per share was a third quarter record of $2.15, up 4% from the year ago period. During the quarter, we purchased approximately 2 million shares of our common stock in the open market at an average price of $179 per share supporting our bullish view of the long-term prospects for Acuity. We closed the quarter with $190 million of cash on hand leaving us with plenty of financial firepower to execute our growth strategies. Looking at key highlights for the third quarter. Net sales in the quarter were up…

Ricky Reece

Analyst

Thank you Vern and good morning everyone. As Vern mentioned earlier, we had some adjustments to the GAAP results in fiscal 2017 and 2016 which we find useful to add back for the results to be comparable. In our earnings release we provide a detailed reconciliation of non-GAAP measures. Primarily due to the impact of the four acquisitions completed in fiscal year 2016, we experienced noticeable increases in amortization of acquired intangible assets, share-based compensation expense since we used restricted stock as a tool to improve retention and to align the interest of key leaders of acquired businesses with those of shareholders, acquisition-related cost, special charges, manufacturing inefficiencies related to the closing of a facility and a gain on the sale of an investment in an unconsolidated affiliate. We believe adjusting for these items and providing these non-GAAP measures provide greater comparability and enhanced visibility into our results of operations. We think you'll find this transparency very helpful in your analysis of our performance. In addition, many of our peer companies especially as we become more of a technology company make these same adjustments, so it will help as you compare our performance to other public companies in our industry. The effective tax rate for the third quarter was 34% compared with 34.3% in the third quarter of last year. We expect the effective tax rate for fiscal year 2017 to be approximately 34.5% before any additional discrete items and if the rates in our taxing jurisdictions remain generally consistent throughout the year. At May 31, 2017, we had a cash and cash equivalent balance of $189.7 million, a decrease of 223.5 million since August 31, 2016. Our operating working capital defined as receivables plus inventories, less payables at May 31, 2017 increased $34.4 million during the nine months of…

Vern Nagel

Analyst

Thank you, Ricky. At Acuity, we continue to see significant long-term growth opportunities that are ever changing and evolving in a positive direction for our company. Recent economic and industry data shows the end markets we serve in North America and certain markets in Europe through the first three quarters of our year moved along at a much slower and more inconsistent pace than was originally anticipated by various forecasting organizations. In fact it now appears from various data sources we collect that total growth for the lighting fixture market will be up in the low-single digit range for the balance of calendar 2017, primarily driven by softness in end user demand, particularly for certain smaller projects that have short lead times. Additionally, we continue to hear from customers that labor shortages in certain markets continue to cause delays in larger projects. Current forecasts are calling for a rebound in luminaire sales for 2018 supported by growth in the overall economy as well as a more consistent growth rate for non-residential and residential contract awards. Therefore we remain bullish regarding the company's long-term prospects for continued profitable growth, particularly as we bring more value added solutions to the market for both new construction and the conversion of the installed base. We continue to see signs that give us optimism regarding the future growth of the markets we serve. Leading indicators for the North American market such as architectural billing index, vacancy rates, office absorption, lending availability, and favorable employment trends continue to improve at varying paces. So the following are a few of our key assumptions as we focus on the second half of the calendar year 2017. Given the information just noted, we expect the lighting market in North America, our largest market to grow modestly in the second…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Vishal Shah of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.

Vishal Shah

Analyst

Congratulations on strong execution, I was just wondering if you can maybe talk a little bit about your contribution margins during the quarter and also what you’re seeing in stock and flow business, it looks like the business is still soft. What percentage of your product business today is stock and flow and how do you think that's going to trend over the next couple of quarters? Thank you.

Vern Nagel

Analyst

Now with regard to our contribution margin, quite frankly we had nice growth relative to market conditions. We grew in our US and Canadian business more than 6%, so against the backdrop of a marketplace that we believe was up 2, that’s a meaningful outperformance. We would have expected contribution at the gross profit level much greater than what we had. So let me just do some math for everyone. If you imagine that we target our variable contribution margin to sort of be in the mid to upper 20s, when you take away freight and commission expense, the rest of it would be in gross profit. So, clearly there was a shortfall. As we look at what's happening in our business, we continue to have challenges within our supply chain and we call it supply chain, but it's really more connected than that. Some of the issues as we continue to accelerate the introduction of new products and new solutions that the connectivity between engineering and manufacturing and then further our component supply base continues to be a challenge for us. We pride ourselves on being very, very good at this, but we have seen issues that have given rise to some quality issues that we have to address as well as the fact that we're incurring greater inbound freight as we try to better align our supply base. Let me give you one example around this. We have a key supplier that has supplied us with some products for quite a long time for a small subset of what we do, but an important subset of what we do. This particular supplier has moved their manufacturing operations to a more low cost environment and in that process they have struggled. They struggled to keep up with the demand…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Tim Wojs of Baird. Your line is now open.

Josh Chan

Analyst

Hi good morning, this is our Josh Chan on for Tim. Thanks for taking our questions. Yes, my first question is following up on some of the gross margin discussion. Vern, you mentioned that the supply chain issues and then you also mentioned rising costs in other areas as well. So just wondering as we look forward, do these issues - how long do these issues persist and how should we think about gross margin trajectory next quarter and then obviously into the next year?

Vern Nagel

Analyst

So again it's an interesting dynamic. When I look at our labor cost within our supply chain as a percentage of sales, we continue to drive productivity, we continue to see improvements in that area. So if some of these exogenous areas that have more to do with, if you will business processes and then those folks that help supply us. Again, if our supply chain and I don't necessarily mean our internal capacity to assemble or to paint or to do some of the things that we have great core competencies around, it's how material is moving from suppliers into our system. If those are not precisely connected or those folks are having issues, they're going to impact us. We have with this one particular example I gave you, we've seen that now for, what probably three quarters in a row Ricky?

Ricky Reece

Analyst

Yes.

Vern Nagel

Analyst

And we're seeing improvement, but it's slow and this is an important supplier. We're taking actions to help mitigate to help support to do some of these things. I expect that we will continue to see progress. As I mentioned to you earlier, when we look at our variable contribution margin, third quarter compared to the second quarter. So sequentially we were up 28% which is reflective of the improvements that we're making. I would expect those to continue as we wrestle through some of these issues. A number of the quality issues that we're experiencing really are from solutions and business processes that were a year ago and we're now experiencing some of these. We believe that we have addressed a number of the business processes. What we mean by that is you know the handoff from engineering and product development to manufacturing and then to supply base, we think we have addressed many of those issues, but we're dealing with the lingering effects of that. So my expectation is that we'll still see some headwinds if you will as we fix those things, but again I'm robust and positive that this is in our wheelhouse, we're good at this stuff, it's just that we're experiencing - have been experiencing some issues here within the supply chain. If we had performed and I'm not suggesting we didn't, but if we did what we normally do, I think that the variable contribution margin that had been more in that mid to upper 20s, the growth and performance would have been more in line with the kinds of expectations and performance that we're capable of delivering. So I'm optimistic about the actions that we're taking. I like how we're driving productivity, I like our focus around these things. But my guess is we'll still be dealing with some of the lingering, the lag effect of fixing some of those items over the next quarter or so.

Josh Chan

Analyst

And if I can switch gears to the tier 3 and 4 solutions that you talked about, obviously, there's been a lot of headlines on retail recently. So wondering what your thoughts are on whether the online effect is impacting your opportunity set there and also do you have targets for other verticals and are you making headway in those other verticals as well. Thanks.

Vern Nagel

Analyst

Yes. So we believe that as the folks in retail who have a massive installed base look to adjust, enhance their business models on how they serve customers and take advantage of their proximity and location, we think it provides a unique opportunity for the Atrius solution set to drive real value to enhance those capabilities. I didn't mention those, but we are very excited about taking Atrius, not only from indoor, but to the outdoor opportunity, so we create an entire campus capability if you will to provide the types of analytics and asset tracking and other things that we're able to provide that are really value add to these types of, whether it's retailers or public spaces or healthcare and educational campuses, we see it as a unique opportunity to add value. When we think about the base, these things take longer than most people anticipate because folks are testing these solution sets and they're looking at do others to provide capabilities and why is this capability so robust. This quarter I believe was a bit of a watershed quarter because we now have customers that are moving from implementation to an accelerated implementation. We have a number of customers who are now moving from pilot programs to implementation. So as I mentioned in our prepared remarks, just the base that we have today and with orders and commitments that we have in hand, we would expect to quadruple the amount of space that is covered under the Atrius solution platform over the next 12 to 18 months. And as you all probably saw here just recently, we announced partners that are now engaged in utilizing the Atrius IoT platform as embedded into their capabilities. This is a hugely exciting opportunity for us to really drive growth and there will be more announcements around these types of folks, because we have a robust platform. When I think about the number of square footage and the customers that we're dealing with in multiple verticals and how these things are moving along, we still have competitors that are trying to figure out how to do it in one space. So when you think about one space versus the thousands that we're now and it's a huge difference, so very excited about what that opportunity is and it will continue because it's a long spec cycle to roll out, but the momentum is building and we're excited about that. That's why when we point out what we -- our growth in our tier 3 area was in the kind of the mid-30s, 35% growth and now represents 13% of our business for these types of solution set. So very exciting for us and we think that this is additive to our overall growth beyond just what market and some of our ability to gain shares in our local market.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Brian Lee of Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.

Brian Lee

Analyst

I guess, first off, Vern with the new data that you're looking at suggesting a low single digit growth for the industry moving through the rest of calendar ’17, does that change your thoughts around the growth recovery. I think in the past, you had talked about sort of exiting this year and early 2018. So I would be curious if one, the timing of your view on growth recovery for the industry is changing and then two, historically, you guys have kind of grown at close to 2x over industry growth rate. Is that still the ratio you're sort of targeting? I know you haven't quantified it more recently, but just wondering if anything has changed there.

Vern Nagel

Analyst

Sure. So let me answer the second question first. The last couple of quarters, we've seen the marketplace slowdown relative to the year ago quarter whatever that was and kind of be in this more low single digit range and yet, our growth this quarter, when I look at US, Canada, which is -- I put Europe which is a small piece of our business and Mexico aside which have some political issues going on, our growth was, we believe, 3x the market. So pretty robust. What we target is just to meaningfully outperform. I think that Acuity, over the last, go back three or four years, has meaningfully outperformed the growth rate of the overall market. And so our expectation is that we will continue to do that. And we'll do that in an aggressive way. We think that providing our Atrius platform and our tier 3 and tier 4 solution set that really bring along the quality of our lighting and building management products is an opportunity just to facilitate an even greater growth rate than the overall market growth rate. Our competitors don't have this capability. When we think about the growth rate of the markets, coming into 2017, all of the market forecasters on a consensus basis were projecting more growth and I think that that enthusiasm was built off of just generally improving economic activities, employment so on and so forth. This bifurcation in what, larger projects versus smaller projects, there's lots of speculation as to what's causing that. I do think that folks are taking a bit more of a wait and see approach. So, is that causing a delay in the overall market growth? Could be. I don't know precisely why, but I know it's happening. 2018, our view is that and we're looking at the same data that all of you look at, whether it's Dodd's, Global Insights', different economic forecasts from different organizations, I think people are expecting that there will be sort of a clearing of the air around some of these clouds, whether it's tax policy or some of the other things that are overhanging people, political views around what's going to happen with NAFTA, so on and so forth. I think as these things kind of move away, move off the table, I think that there's a lot of underlying pent-up demand for a lot of these things, the value propositions for renovation and retrofit are really strong and I think that as we continue to bring even more value in terms of the Atrius platform, I think that we're going to see an acceleration of our growth, but I also believe that the underlying market growth rate will continue to improve.

Brian Lee

Analyst

Just second question, I'll pass it on, is, I know you guys don't necessarily think about the business in these terms, but you do break it out. So we tend to look at it this way from the software community. The LED segment growth, it's nothing to see that in the mid teens here, but it has degraded faster than I think a lot of people would have expected here and you're now kind of back in line with what the growth rate is for peers after a long time of outgrowing peers. Any specific drivers you can point to there, is this just the new normal after a period of outsized growth in that particular technology segment or when you mention reacceleration in the business, would that be a particular area where we might see those growth rates start to take back up, especially with Atrius embedded in those numbers. Thank you.

Vern Nagel

Analyst

I believe that our LED growth rate is exceeding the market growth rate. Ricky, when we look at some of the data that we have around sales relative to others, it's positive for that. So I don't know that I completely agree with the statement of the premise that we're now at peer levels. [indiscernible] is important. A lot of folks have come out as you and asked this question, but I'll look to address it a bit. What's happening in the pricing in the market and certain things, our overall price mix and we believe was mostly price as quarter of as a point, right, but we don't participate in every aspect of the market. So where there is, if you will, aggressive price pressures where people are talking about that folks do certain channel checks, Acuity doesn't always participate in that. So when we look at our growth rates and look at what's happening in our luminaires. We participate and always have in a bid market and so pricing is always competitive and what happens in one geography may not be happening in another for a certain set of product, so on and so forth. But when I look at our overall luminaire business and it depends on what type of product set it is, I mean, we are robustly now in full penetration. When I look at down lighting and things of that nature, Ricky, I mean, it's a high number. And so you're continuing to add value in different ways to bring solutions to the market that are not just based on competitive price pressures. Again, we have said that we expect component costs to continue to decline, though we believe at somewhat of a decelerating rate and some of that goes back into the marketplace.…

Ricky Reece

Analyst

The only other thing I'd mention is, on the LED, as Vern said, we participate in much of that broad market, but there are segments like the lamps, the LED tubes, some of those areas which are experiencing nice growth and in some areas as they're replacing incandescent and so forth, but are seeing huge price declines and challenges and all there. So as you look at our results and compare it to some of our peers recognize that that's a part of the LED market that we have strategically chosen not to participate in.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Christopher Glynn of Oppenheimer. Your line is now open.

Christopher Glynn

Analyst

Interesting headline on the Atrius Partners. I'm wondering if you could speak to how substantive that partner engagement is versus sure will be interested in lighting and what the real buy-in on the notion of luminaire as a truly core edge device is.

Vern Nagel

Analyst

Yeah. So the Atrius platform is a broad based platform. It's collecting -- it has the ability to collect data from multiple sensor sources, not just lighting. We see lighting and our partners in this regard see lighting as a very dense ubiquitous capability to create a robust sensory network that can tie into many other types of sensory networks. So there goes HVAC, think of other building things, literally any sensor that you can imagine. The Atrius platform has the again robust ability to collect that information and then in a very, very user friendly way, provide that data so that people with their own SDKs can create apps or analytics and the solution set and how they can do that through Atrius is really simple and really efficient and it's a point of significant differentiation. So what these partners see is the ability to say, oh instead of using a very less efficient data collection sensor, battery enabled beacon some type, I'm just using that as an example, we could collect that data. But because we have this again very robust sensory network from lighting, it's a great source for many of their solution sets, so the data is now being made available to them. Our team has done an extraordinary job of really creating sort of the API that is robust and secure and scalable and the SDK kits are really very, very efficient. So Chris, these partners see this as an enabling capability that makes them very, very efficient in how they then get the data to then use it in the apps where they're bringing differentiated value. So we're very excited about this. As you know, the investment that we've made over the years to create the Atrius platform, whether it's acquisitions of Geometri, eldoLED, DGLogik, many of these kinds of things and then the -- our only investment of our software engineer and our various engineering teams, again you know we have now hundreds of people that are focused on this. So the coming out party, under the Atrius platform, various pieces and parts have been in the market today now will flow in. It's no longer proof of concept. We are engaging people to have this become, if you will, the standard within their system to be able to collect data and then they do their thing, their value add in terms of what they're providing to that end customer. So we're very excited about this. There's very significant demand and we're aggressively putting resources behind this to market these programs and solutions to these folks. I would just say to the -- to all of the listeners here, you know, in the last quarter, if I think about how we have net added folks in our salaried workforce, probably 90% of them are focused on this type of solution set that is really part of the broader Atrius IoT platform and solution set, the big deal.

Christopher Glynn

Analyst

And if I can ask you to, I mean speculatively, you mentioned the quadrupling of the installed base. A couple of questions, is that off and running on more backend loaded as momentum follows a normal build pattern and is the quadruple kind of a snapshot, what you see now versus you know maybe that is dynamic you know metric as momentum builds and we get updates the next few quarters?

Vern Nagel

Analyst

Yeah. I think it will be important, because this is all new and developing, it's spotty, right? It's not like you can say, okay, here is the overall market, it grows at this rate and then you can gauge what we're doing. We're developing if you will a solution set into a marketplace that has been rudimentary. So people are testing it, people are working with it, they're experimenting with it. Those that were the early adopters are now moving more and more to a more rapid implementation, because they now are using it to do things that create real value to them and they're driving that. Folks that were in pilot programs are now moving from pilot to implementation, so it will go through its normal rollout. We just want folks to understand that the significant difference that Acuity has relative to what competitors, you might view as competitors, traditional people saying, I can do that too, just ask them, what's their installation set look like? And now you have a real sense of just how far we are in this opportunity compared to our competitors. So I think it's going to be a -- it will be a little bit lumpy as we roll out that like I said, I think over the next 12 to 18 months, off the base that we have, this is what we're expecting based on the commitments and orders that they have. We just know that this is a snapshot today and our teams are aggressively marketing to partners, to other lighting companies, to other vertical sets. Again as we think about who are we targeting, retailer is a great example. Public spaces are a great example and then you think of campuses, whether it's university campus, research campuses, healthcare campuses, those are the verticals where it's really low hanging fruit and opportunistic. And then when you get into our traditional business, we're bringing unique solution sets into the commercial office building, into warehouses. We're expanding Atrius and having discussions with people who are focused on that industrial warehouse manufacturing space because of the unique capabilities of this Atrius IoT platform to collect data from any source and then provided that data into a very, very effective SDK process where people can write apps against it, just to facilitate meaningfully their ability to provide data and analytics back.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from John Walsh of Vertical Research. Your line is now open.

John Walsh

Analyst

I guess a lot of ground covered, but you know two kind of quick ones. One as we think about the investments you're making in software and engineers over the next couple of years and what you've already been doing, are we at the point where we're starting to plateau or are there still kind of significant step ups that have to happen from the run rate we're at currently.

Vern Nagel

Analyst

So the way we try to address that question is really to [Technical Difficulty]. I would say that we still need to [Technical Difficulty] marketing sides of things, really working with customers to make sure that their solution set is being supported the way they want, so that it comes off without a hitch. So we need some more capability there. Those folks will be both engineers as well as other skill sets, but I don't consider that to be a huge number. I think the bulk of the investment that was necessary to get Atrius to where it is today, meaning a very viable platform that can be used in the market and a number of applications, it's pretty robust. And so I think that the variable contribution margin number that we target, mid to upper-20s is still good for a while, because we will be adding capability, but as you all know and I've said this before and Ricky and Dan have said this before, our expectation is that, there's a crossover point, we begin to really leverages this. I think we're some quarters away from that, but we're getting closer every day.

Ricky Reece

Analyst

The excitement I would add to that is while the investment is there and will continue to have some add, we're now starting to see the return off of these several years of investments. Early on, we had to build the platform, we had to build out the API, [indiscernible] and all before you really started seeing meaningful revenue. Now with the momentum that we're seeing, we're now starting to see the return come in, both on the sales of the infrastructure, but also on the recurring revenues as well that is enjoyable to see that we're now getting a return on these years of investment.

Vern Nagel

Analyst

And Ricky, I think you would also agree that the opportunity to add solution sets to basic lesser featured products allows them to have more value than just trying to compete on a very defeatured really low value add product, just because something's low value or it doesn't have a lot of features doesn't mean it doesn't reside in the space. That real estate in that ceiling is valuable. I think that Atrius gives us the opportunity to make those basic products more valuable, more differentiated and more competitive against folks who are simply trying to say, oh, I have a low price. So we're excited about what this opportunity means for our tier 1 and our tier 2 solution sets and tier 3 that that go through more traditional channels. This is a value add opportunity that will help us further differentiate. In every situation? No. But in many situations, yes and that's a margin enhancement opportunity on what we'll call basic defeatured type luminaires.

John Walsh

Analyst

And then I guess just a follow-up to that, as we think about future proofing and turning clients on potentially at a later date for services, how is the system set up so that somebody might not be ready to go to a full blown solution today, but they want to have that capability down the road. Is that embedded in kind of some of the less smart luminaires today and then obviously LED, once it goes into the ceiling, you're talking about potentially 15 year plus life, how do you kind of future proof and I'm assuming it's mostly software updates, but maybe kind of talk a little bit about that.

Vern Nagel

Analyst

So our nLight system is a very robust capability that has been out for a while. We estimate -- it's an estimate. We estimate that there is probably 1 billion square feet of space that is nLight enabled that really now has the opportunity in a very simple way to enjoy the benefits of the Atrius IoT platform. So we have customers that have this capability in place. It's also through our nLight eclipse system, which was created in conjunction with Distech, which is a fantastic acquisition, great team to create these capabilities. So we have an installed base. They have the ability through their nLight capability to upgrade or to take advantage of our Atrius IoT platform. And as we talk to customers today, it's at the forefront of our discussion to say, hey, look, you're converting to LED, you should hear the energy savings that you have that you should future proof this, so that it can be Atrius IoT enabled, because one day, if you're not ready today, you can use this capability to do many, many things and we believe that's a very robust opportunity, because as you imagine, some of these other partners who are using the Atrius platform and the SDK capability to create apps that are targeted towards things, this is really our model. We want other people who are accretive, all get up, writing apps that help the end customer enhance the value of their space, indoor and outdoor, enhance the productivity, enhance the use, but it's all, if you will, paid for through the notion of energy savings, energy efficient lighting in their space.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Cindy Motz of Williams Capital Group.

Cindy Motz

Analyst

Congrats on the buyback and the overall growth and just even reining in some of the incentive compensation. That was great. But I just had a question on Atrius, just following up. In general, you had a nice ramp. Looks like sales are growing at 35% versus like 25% like you said I guess a quarter ago. That should mean good things for gross margins as well, right, because it's recurring revenues, more like software margins. So could we, I mean, if you get the supply chain issues in order and you also have the bump, let's say, from increased margins from Atrius, I would think that your margins as you said should go up, but I mean could we see some of that next quarter, I'm just curious obviously going forward and then I had a question just on revenues. But if you want to answer that one first.

Vern Nagel

Analyst

Cindy, first of all, reining in incentive comp is not our objective here, because we are --

Cindy Motz

Analyst

No. I saw the comp decline now, I saw that percentage come down, so. So we're doing what you said you're going to do?

Vern Nagel

Analyst

Yeah. It means that we're not having the kind of period over period improvement that we are after too. Anyway, let me answer or attempt to answer some of the questions around the margin of Atrius. First of all, our tier 3 solution set, recall that it is a broad based solution set, where we're tying together luminaires and building management capability, in your conference room, in your floor, tied your whole building. Those solution sets can be enabled to do different types of things within Atrius. Asset tracking and geospatial activity or analytics, so on and so forth. So tier 3, that billing and square foot of base that we believe is in place, most of those folks put that in place primarily because they were targeting energy savings. It's just that our solution set through nLight offers them the opportunity to now upgrade that, if you will, to an Atrius solution. So as Atrius itself begins to spice the stew and the mix within that tier 3 and as it allows us to then generate recurring revenues to support on a subscription basis, the Atrius platform, when you look at those two together, that's where you in time will see the margin lift as the mix moves, as those businesses grow. Our core business -- our core lighting business has tremendous potential and opportunity for continued growth and we do well there from a margin perspective. So as one is growing at a nice exceeding market rate, the other one is accelerating as more adoption occurs, yes, our expectation is that in a normal operating environment, their margins would continue to improve. Unfortunately, right now, you have sort of two things working, right. We're trying to bring clarity around what's happening operationally within our business. So we've got some things to continue to address and fix, but then what's happening on those incremental margins, I'm still very comfortable and I think Ricky is as well that targeting incremental margins over the next quarters, handful less, one whatever will probably be in that mid to upper 20 kind of variable contribution margins. Then accelerating as our investment in our core, we now really start to leverage that. You're not having to add more, if you will, engineers to create, you're adding more people to help support, but at a much lower rate, getting much more leverage that makes sense.

Cindy Motz

Analyst

And just on revenues. So we're still, I mean, the next quarter, this quarter that we're in and your last quarter fiscally, we usually see the seasonal bump. So I would expect that we would still see that that seasonal bump and the only other question I had was I saw in the Q, you said that you were going to adapt ASU 2014, Ricky, September 1. So going forward, should we expect to see anything like from -- because I know that size, cash receipts revenues more from the project thing. So just on revenues. Thanks.

Ricky Reece

Analyst

Okay. On the seasonality of the revenues, you're correct that historically our fourth quarter, fourth fiscal quarter is our seasonal high. Our third and fourth combined usually are 52%, 53% of the total revenues for the year and there's nothing that would suggest we wouldn't see that same level of seasonality this year. A lot of it is school season driven, weather driven, those types of things. As far as the accounting, I assume you're talking about the revenue recognition standard. That for us, we won't have to adopt until the first quarter of our fiscal '19. So it will be September of '18 that we adopt it. We're very much in the throes of looking at contracts and preparing for that. You saw enhanced disclosures in the 10-Q regarding the preparedness that we are going through to adopt that. It will have an impact on us, particularly on the tier 4 recurring revenue, subscription type revenue and you're right, that will result in a more deferred accounting for that that will not necessarily match the cash flow. So we will have upfront cash hopefully that we collect that may get deferred. Warranties is another area that we will be impacted as we'll have to likely separate that out as a separate revenue component and defer the portion of the revenue that's related to the warranty side. So it will have an impact, I don't know that it will be nearly as material as some other industries, but it will have an impact. But we are fortunate with our fiscal year end that while most people have to adopt a January 1st of '18, we have all the way until August. So we've got a little bit more time before we'll have to adopt that standard.

Operator

Operator

I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Vern Nagel for closing remarks.

Vern Nagel

Analyst

Thank you everyone for your time this morning. As you can tell, we strongly believe we are focusing on the right objectives, deploying the proper strategies and driving the organization to succeed in critical areas that will, over the longer term, continue to deliver strong returns to our key stakeholders. Our future is very bright and thank you for your support.