Richard Reece
Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Yes, a couple of comments that I would add that I think are different this time, both for the type of the recession as well as where we are positioned. First on the type of recession, the depth may be as deep no one knows as what we saw in 2008, 2009, but most people believe it won't be as protracted. You know that big recession lasted for two years or so, 18 months, two years before you saw recovery. Most people, no one knows, but most people believe this one will maybe not V shaped but that we will see a rebound once this situation passes and hopefully we have opportunities to treat this and vaccines and so forth should we see a rebound. The other difference this time I believe is there is liquidity in the market, the last 2008, 2009 there was a pretty significant financial crisis, a lot of liquidity lost out of the market and so forth, both from what the Federal Government has done as well as just the state or the financial markets, I think there will be more liquidity this time. And the infrastructure, spending bills that are being put forward and passed seem to be more implementable and maybe more shovel ready than what we experienced in 2008, 2009. Time will tell, but I do think those are different. Looking at us as a company in 2008, 2009 80% of what we sold was in the new construction and clearly, new construction has the biggest potential for the impact in many of the sectors. This time only about half of our revenues would be into new construction where much more into renovation, much more into other aspects than just new construction. And those areas have the potential to rebound quicker than new construction might do. And then as Neil said, and just to comment somewhat on the questions earlier from Ryan, while retail stores and all maybe down, we are seeing good activity in distribution centers and logistics centers and so forth, as people now are buying more and more online being delivered. So we're seeing good opportunities and aspects of the business beyond the front facing retail stores. So still hard to know where it's going to play out. Not to suggest by any means we're not going to see a negative demand shock. We certainly think we will and we're planning aggressively for that. But I do see some stark differences and potentially positive from this one versus 2008, 2009 Brian. Great question.