Operator
Operator
Good afternoon. Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, to AstraZeneca's Q3 Results Analyst Conference. Before I hand over to Pascal Soriot, I'd like to read the Safe Harbor statement. The company intends to utilize the Safe Harbor provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Participants on this call may make forward-looking statements with respect to the operations and financial performance of AstraZeneca. Although we believe our expectations are based on reasonable assumptions, by their very nature of forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties and may be influenced by factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements made on this call reflect the knowledge and information available at the time of this call. The company undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements. I will now hand you over to Pascal Soriot. Pascal Soriot - Chief Executive Officer & Executive Director: Hello, everyone. This is Pascal Soriot, I'm the CEO of AstraZeneca. Welcome to the Q3 results conference call for investors and analysts. Our slides are posted online for you to download and follow. I'm joined today by: Marc Dunoyer, our CFO; Luke Miels, our EVP for Global Product and Portfolio Strategy; and Sean Bohen, our new Executive Vice President for Global Medicines Development and our CMO. In addition we have other key members of the AstraZeneca team ready for your questions. We have: Paul Hudson, EVP, head of North America; Elisabeth Björk, our Clinical Development Head for CV/Metabolism; and Mondher Mahjoubi, the Head of our strategic business unit Oncology. It's great to have so many of you present today despite competing events, and we look forward to taking you through the results and achievements so far in 2015. And importantly, we look forward to the Q&A session. Before we get started, this is the usual safe harbor statement, but please turn now to slide three. The plan today is for me to provide a short introduction and a summary. I will then hand over to Luke for an update on our growth platforms and our products. Marc will cover the financials and the guidance. Sean will provide a pipeline update, and I will end with concluding remarks before we take your questions. We plan to have about 30 minutes for the presentation and a similar amount of time for Q&A; so, one hour in total. For the Q&A, I kindly remind participants to limit questions to one or two per person so we have time for everyone. We can do a second round, too, if necessary. Turning to slide four. Within the results today, total revenue was stable at $18.3 billion year-to-date. We're pleased with this performance and the resilience of our top line despite ongoing patent expiries and competition from generic products that are creating substantial headwinds for us. The growth platforms grew double digit at 10% in the year-to-date and now represents 57% of our total revenue. Core EPS was up 2% in the year-to-date. But more importantly, we were up 8% in the quarter, CER [constant exchange rate], reflecting an increasing gross margin but also the management of our G&A expenses. We delivered strong newsflows from the pipeline in the third quarter, including one new approval and several regulatory submission acceptances. The importance of our new medicines was highlighted by the granting of priority reviews, accelerated assessments in a number of FDA Fast Track designations. However, based on our performance so far this year, we've upgraded today the full-year CER guidance as we see total revenue now being much more in line with last year and core EPS increasing by mid- to high single digit percent. Marc will provide more details later on. So, turning to slide five. And looking at the third quarter, there was a continued strong pipeline newsflows. Brilinta was approved in the U.S. for the treatment beyond one year based on data from the PEGASUS study. As you would expect, in our industry, some projects go well and others certainly can face setback. We did receive a Complete Response Letter from the FDA for saxa/dapa and we are currently assessing exactly what needs to be covered before we can bring this medicine to patients in the U.S. It's important to remember that in the meantime, we are pursuing approvals in Europe and elsewhere. And we'll hear more about that in 2016. Sean will provide more details later, but it was reassuring that this Complete Response Letter didn't refer to (05:14) for saxa/dapa or diabetes ketoacidosis for the SGLT-2 class; and more to come during Sean's presentation. PT003, Brilinta and AZD9291, all received regulatory submission acceptances in various geographies. And 9291 received priority reviews in the U.S. and Japan and accelerated assessment in the EU. Also, we received FDA Fast Track designation for anifrolumab, tremelimumab and durvalumab. So, quite a rich newsflow for the quarter. Please turn to slide six. Total revenue was stable year-to-date, down 2% in Q3, reflecting the ongoing patent expiries and the generic competition, as well as the lower level of externalization revenue compared to previous quarters this year. Our growth platforms continue to perform well, growing by 10% in the year-to-date, and now represent 57% of total revenue. We continue to manage SG&A cost while investing in R&D expenses that grew by 22% year-to-date as we started new trials in oncology and elsewhere, including COPD and lupus. We continue to have a very rich last-stage pipeline with 15 new molecular entities in Phase III or under registration, and we support those through this R&D budget increase. We expect, however, R&D cost for the full year to remain in growth mode but moderate next year, and we would see 2016 R&D cost to be broadly in line with 2015. We expect this year, SG&A cost will decline versus last year as we told you earlier this year we would deliver. More to come during Marc's presentation. We leveraged our stable revenues down the P&L with the core gross margin up by 1 percentage point so far this year. Core EPS for the year-to-date grew 2%. Importantly, we grew 8% in the quarter which supports our upgraded guidance. So to sum up, given the top line resilience and the SG&A management, we've been able to continue investing in R&D but still deliver on our core EPS goals. The results today provide a reassurance about our ability to fund R&D investment without negatively impacting earnings. And this will be important as we move into 2016. Over the medium term, the continued performance of our platforms and our launches – upcoming launches – will combine with our increasing focus on cost and cash generation to help offset short-term headwinds and return our company to sustainable growth. With this, I'll hand over to Luke. Luke Miels - Executive Vice President Global Product and Portfolio Strategy (GPPS) & Corporate Affairs: Thanks, Pascal. And if we could just go to slide eight, please. So, starting with the growth platforms, we have the headline progress across all markets, and that's exactly what we saw on Q3, which is encouraging. These main therapeutic areas and fast-growing geographies are the key contributors to returning the company to steady growth and to achieving our medium and long-term revenue targets. Over the course of the next few slides, I'll review each of these in more detail. But overall, Respiratory was driven by strength in emerging markets, plus the new products. Brilinta made an important regulatory stride in the quarter on the heels of the positive PEGASUS study results. Diabetes was driven by the progression of strong launches and our global footprint. And it may be the fastest-growing global diabetes franchise at the moment. Emerging Markets showed notable strength, particularly in China. And finally, Japan maintained solid growth in the third quarter. If we go to Respiratory on the next slide, so Respiratory grew by 8% year-to-date, driven by the strong performance of our Emerging Markets business, and also the availability of new products in the U.S. and the EU. We believe this is comfortably ahead of global market growth of around 5%. If we look specifically at Symbicort, it declined by 2% year-to-date. And in the U.S., sales were down 1% with volume growth offset by additional access in copay assistance after formulary changes at the beginning of the year, which is what we discussed in Q1 and Q2. Symbicort achieved share growth every month since February, and in September, achieved an all-time high for total prescription share. The maintenance of positive volume and growth in share in the U.S. speaks to the strengthening resilience of this medicine in the eyes of doctors and patients and device loyalty. For Europe, a different set of dynamics and the business remains impacted by the three analogs now in the market. But we have a pretty good picture of what is at play there. Symbicort and Pulmicort both have notable growth in emerging markets, particularly in China. And China specifically represents an opportunity with a large unmet need in terms of untreated patient populations, both in asthma but also COPD. Pulmicort was up 47% and remains our leading product in China by sales. Substantial growth potential continues to exist in the market with trends shifting from acute treatment to chronic maintenance treatment, and treatment expansion from large tier cities to more rural and community-based treatment centers. As for the new products, Tudorza and Eklira saw nice progress in the U.S. and Europe, and are also the fastest-growing line of bronchodilators in some markets. If we look at Duaklir, the dual LAMA/LABA, the launch is progressing well in about 15 markets for its launch and continues to gain share, up to 15% to 20%, depending on the market. Next slide, please, slide 10. Brilinta – it was a good quarter – Brilinta grew by 44% year-to-date with particular strength in emerging markets and also the U.S. In the U.S., approval was granted for the post-MI indication during the third quarter. And that's an important milestone that underscores the role Brilinta can play in reducing the risk of subsequent cardiovascular events for patients, both in the acute setting and now in the longer term. The expanded FDA label for Brilinta for post-MI patients also reinforced, critically, Brilinta's superiority over Plavix. The launch took place in October and there was some inventory benefit realized already in Q3 as we prepared for that launch. The halo effect of the U.S. label will increase market share, currently at 10.1% as you can see from the chart, and should also increase the duration of treatment with more patients now staying on therapy for longer. And we're also encouraged by the increasing awareness and confidence shown by prescribing physicians and the feedback given to us following the label change. In the EU, Brilinta reinforced its position as a standard of care in the ICS market. And in Japan, regulatory submissions were completed both for the ICS and also the post-MI indications. We move next to diabetes. If we look at the total portfolio. It was encouraging growth, 26% year-to-date, and it was driven by FARXIGA and also the Bydureon Pen. Geographically, emerging markets were up 73% year-to-date. Onglyza sales were up 2% globally driven by Europe and emerging markets and also Japan. U.S. sales were down 15% as the medicine continued to experience challenges from a competitive market, and also, our very deliberate focus on FARXIGA and the Bydureon Dual Chamber Pen. And finally, we still await the label update for Onglyza following the April 2015 advisory committee meeting on the state of the trial. For FARXIGA, continued strong growth across all geographies including the U.S., Europe and emerging markets. And as we look into next year, we expect the U.S. to soon benefit from improving pulmonary access and improvements around the patient access programs. Bydureon sales growth was 38%, ahead of a growing market of GLP-1s, and reflected the successful launch of the Dual Chamber Pen. U.S. conversion from the single-dose tray to the pen is around 60% of TRXs, up 50% that we explained in the first half. Next slide. Thanks. For emerging markets, a balanced performance. Double-digit growth continued in Q3. China maintained double-digit growth, though at a slightly lower rate, with strong underlying market dynamics. Our expectation is to continue delivering strong growth in China. There was also notable growth outside of China. Russia and Brazil are both growing ahead of the market and at double digit rates with many other countries following at high single digit rates. Emerging market growth overall was spread across all the main therapeutic areas which we think is encouraging. Year-to-date, Respiratory is up 32%, Brilinta up 93% and Diabetes up 73%. And finally, as we start to focus more on it in preparation for the pipeline, Oncology was up 19%. Next slide please. For Japan, we maintained growth in Q3 with an increase in sales of 6% and 3% year-to-date. Key growth medicines were Symbicort, Nexium and Crestor and these all saw continued progress in Q3 and maintained leading market share positions. In Q3, Symbicort was negatively impacted by the comparative years – in 2014 – year's strong performance, as shipments in the first half of 2014 shifted into Q3. Nexium maintained its leading market position despite increased competition and Crestor benefited from increased usage of the 5 milligram dose. We also progressed the pipeline in Q3 and we expect several regulatory milestones in Japan in 2016, including for Brilinta, we submitted for ACS and post MI indications and we anticipate being able to launch in Japan in 2016. Also, as planned, we submitted AZD9291 for regulatory approval and obtained priority review. This regulatory submission immediately followed the ones in the U.S. and the EU by only one quarter. And just to place this in context, if we look at Crestor and Symbicort, the time lag between the U.S. and EU is between 10 and 12 years. So, again, the focus on accelerated R&D in Japan is paying off. We also like to thank scientists and clinicians and product teams involved for their important contributions. We'll look forward to bringing these important oncology medicine to patients as soon as possible, potentially ahead of the first half in 2016. All in all, with the progress made, AstraZeneca's presence in Japan is expanding and the company now ranked seventh in the country, as you can see on the right hand of the slide. And the next slide. New launches, for an update on the most recent launches starting with Lynparza. So, I think it's very fair to say there's a strong uptake in the U.S.; approximately 75% of the estimated 1,200 prevalent BRCA-tested fourth-line patients are already treated with Lynparza. BRCA testing rates have reached approximately 75% it the U.S., and they have now doubled in the EU to about one-third of patients. Sales in Europe are growing and they now represent around 20% of total Lynparza sales. The product is now launched in around 10 countries, including emerging markets, with more than five more countries expected to launch in the final quarter. We look forward to upcoming data on Lynparza and the program, potentially to expand the use of this important product. Turning to Iressa, it was approved in the U.S. in July for first line use in metastatic EGFR-mutated lung cancer with the first commercial sales recorded just a few days later. Critically, the launch of Iressa has enabled us to accelerate the construction of our medical and commercial capability which we expect to actively deploy prior to the launch of 9291. Finally, Movantik continues a good trajectory in the U.S. We're encouraged by the broad awareness level that has led to trials and good repeat scripts and more expansive use. Importantly, the patient experience has been very positive and the abandonment rate is very low. Finally, the product has been made available to patients in Nordic countries with recent additional launches in the UK, Ireland, Germany and Canada. Overall, year-to-date and in Q3, our main therapeutic areas and geographic areas of focus delivered steady growth. With this, I'll now hand over to Marc for the financials. Marc Dunoyer - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Director: Thanks, Luke, and hello, everyone. I'm going to spend the next few minutes taking you through our financial headlines and the upgraded guidance for 2015. Please turn to slide 16. Looking at the year-to-date, we delivered another robust performance. As Pascal said, total revenues were stable over the year-to-date. Externalization revenue represented about 5% of the top line. As we continue to experience high R&D productivity and focus on three main therapeutic areas, externalization revenue will remain important in 2016. Our gross margin improved further, this time to over 83% of year-to-date product sales, reflecting the mix as well as manufacturing efficiencies. Core SG&A declined by 3% in quarter three but increased by 2% in the year-to-date. You may remember, however, the phasing of spend last year that was weighted toward the final quarter. Therefore, we remain fully confident of lowering core SG&A cost over the full year, both in value and in percentage of total revenue. The combination of top-line stability, a stronger gross margin and a favorable outlook for core SG&A enabled us to continue the significant growth in core R&D investment in the period. The increase of 18% in the third quarter reflected the recent start of a number of clinical trials, in particular, in Oncology. The results today provide reassurance about AstraZeneca's ability to fund our own investment without negatively impacting earnings. In a moment, I will take you through our full-year guidance. Please turn to slide 17. Turning to the P&L in more detail, the total revenue was stable year-to-date, but down 2% in quarter three, reflecting the ongoing patent expiries and generic competition, as well as the low level of external revenue in the third quarter. Encouraging progress this year in the cost of sales and our gross margin was accompanied by a 3% reduction in core SG&A cost in the third quarter. This came on the back of a 1% decline in core SG&A cost in quarter two. The core tax rate fell to 16% in the year-to-date after one-off benefit in the first half. Anticipated full-year tax rate to be in the lower half of the 16% to 20% range outlined earlier in the year. The 8% increase in core EPS in the third quarter supports today's upgrade to guidance. Please turn to slide 18. Core SG&A cost reduction has been the focus for the business this year and we are seeing good progress. I'm pleased that we delivered a decline in the ratio of core SG&A to total revenue year-to-date versus fiscal year – full-year 2014. Core SG&A cost also fell by 3% in the quarter following the decline in quarter two. As example of the actions we are taking, we continue to improve our sales, marketing and medical effectiveness, which includes leveraging programs globally rather than a country-by-country basis. We also focus on centralizing select functions and processes to deliver standardization and economies of scale. Please turn to slide 19. Turning to our upgraded guidance for 2015, total revenue is now expected to be in line with last year given our performance over the last nine months. We are maintaining good level of investments in R&D as more of our projects enter late stage. We expect core EPS to increase by mid- to high single digit percent this year. These upgrades reflect the cumulative effect of, among other things, revenue stability, the strengthening gross margin, and successive reduction in core G&A cost. Although not guidance, we also try to help you to understand the impact of exchange rate movements in the year. Based on current exchange rates, total revenue is still expected to decline by high single digit percent. We continue to expect full-year core EPS at current rates to be broadly in line with 2014. Given the increasing guidance at CER, it reflects a continued tough drag from global currencies versus the U.S. dollar. Thank you for listening, and I will now hand over to Sean. Sean Bohen - Chief Medical Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you, Marc. It is a pleasure to be here speaking with you all today. I am both proud and excited to have taken over this role in September. By way of introduction, I trained as an MD, PhD at the University of California, San Francisco and the National Cancer Institute; then, as an oncologist at Stanford. I was previously at Genentech for 12 years where I gained experience across the various phases of development in a broad spectrum of therapeutic areas. In the short few weeks since I joined, I've been extremely impressed with the breadth and depth of the pipeline and the high caliber of the individuals in the organization. I would like to assure you that together with the GMD team, we are committed to advancing the pipeline by pursuing a clearly defined science-led strategy to translate scientific knowledge to good clinical experiments to new medicines to benefit patients. I welcome the challenge of executing our pipeline and look forward to meeting many of you over the coming months. Please turn to slide 22. Next, I would like to review some late stage pipeline highlights in our three main therapy areas for the third quarter. Starting with RIA, we received acceptance for the PT003 regulatory submission in the United States for COPD and the detailed results for the Phase III trials were presented at the ERS Congress in Amsterdam in September. In CVMD, Brilinta received approval in the U.S. for the post-MI indication and regulatory submission acceptance for both the ACS and post-MI indications in Japan. As for saxa/dapa, we were disappointed to receive the complete response letter which stated more clinical data are required to support the application. No concerns were raised related to hospitalization for heart failure or diabetic ketoacidosis. We will work closely with the FDA to determine the appropriate next steps and remain committed to the program. As for DECLARE, our SGLT2 outcome study, the trial is fully enrolled. Finally, for Oncology, we received priority review designation in both the U.S. and Japan and accelerated assessment in the EU for AZD9291. We also received FDA Fast Track designation for durvalumab for head and neck cancer and tremelimumab for mesothelioma. Q3 was a busy quarter for us and illustrates the steady progression as well as our commitment to the pipeline. Please turn to slide 23. Given the fast-evolving treatment landscape in immuno-oncology, I wanted to provide some perspective over the 2015 to 2017 timeframe for the AstraZeneca portfolio and key ongoing trials. By the end of the year, we expect data from the durvalumab ATLANTIC trial in third-line PD-L1 positive non-small cell lung cancer. The ATLANTIC study as well as the HAWK study in second-line PD-L1 positive head and neck cancer are both single-arm Phase II trials designed as potential fast-to-market trials. Assuming positive trials and unmet need in their intended indications, they could potentially lead to regulatory submissions in their respective settings. However, given the evolving treatment landscape in lung cancer, there is now a lower likelihood that ATLANTIC can be used for regulatory submission. But we're still awaiting the data to make that determination. HAWK, in head and neck cancer, is expected to have data in the second half of 2016. Further in monotherapy, PACIFIC, in earlier stage lung cancer as well as the sub-study A of the ARCTIC trial in third-line PD-L1 positive lung cancer, are both scheduled to report in 2017. The DETERMINE trial of tremelimumab in second-line mesothelioma is now expected to report in the first half of 2016. As with so many clinical trials, the final analysis of DETERMINE is event-driven and events have been coming in slower than anticipated. DETERMINE is a randomized Phase II with more than 500 patients in total. Outside monotherapy, AstraZeneca is continuing to lead the efforts in combining IO medicines, in particular, our anti-PD-L1 and anti-CTLA-4, durvalumab and tremelimumab, it's evident from many data sets that patients whose tumor does not express PD-L1 do not derive much benefit from monotherapy but need a combination approach. PD-L1 negative patients represent about two-thirds of all patients and thus, a very large opportunity to make a real difference in the treatment of their cancers. We have started several registrational studies of the durva plus treme combo and are rapidly moving forward and consolidating our leading position in IO combinations. The first studies will read out in 2017, including sub-study B of the ARCTIC trial, as well as MYSTIC, our first line trial in non-small cell lung cancer. Similarly in head and neck cancer, CONDOR is expected in 2017 as well. Please also watch out for updated durva + treme data at the upcoming SITSI (27:59) meeting. Just a few words on Caural and Tatton. As you know, there is a partial clinical hold on recruitment for these combination trials. But patients already enrolled can continue treatment after re-consent. There was an increased incidence of interstitial lung disease with the combination therapy, as compared to each drug as a single agent and we are working with regulatory authorities on how to monitor these events. There is no impact to ongoing discussions with regulatory authorities on AZD9291 approval. In summary, as a newcomer to AstraZeneca, I am very impressed by the IO Program, and in particular, the combination work, where we are in a leading position with durva and treme, as well as many earlier-stage programs. And I'm looking forward to keeping you updated on our continued progress here. Please turn to slide 24. Between now and the end of 2015, we expect steady newsflow from our advancing pipeline, including regulatory approvals, regulatory submissions and Phase III readouts. Focusing on events through the first half of next year, for regulatory approvals, we expect to hear on lesinurad in the U.S. in late December. And in the first half of 2016, AZD9291 has its official PDUFA date and EU anticipated approval for lung cancer, and PT003, its PDUFA date for COPD in the U.S. As for key regulatory submissions, we expect to submit brodalumab for psoriasis by the end of this year. And in the first half of 2016, Brilinta in stroke and durvalumab for lung cancer and tremelimumab for mesothelioma, our first potential entrants in the immuno-oncology market. As for key Phase III readouts, we expect durvalumab for lung cancer in the current quarter; and in the first half of 2016, tremelimumab for mesothelioma, benralizumab for severe asthma and Lynparza for metastatic breast cancer. As you can see, there are many key data points expected in the coming months. To highlight our key late-stage pipeline programs, we will be hosting a late-stage pipeline conference call on December 2. We look forward to exploring these important programs in more depth at that time. And with that, I would like to hand back over to Pascal for closing comments. Pascal Soriot - Chief Executive Officer & Executive Director: Thank you, Sean, and again, a warm welcome to the AstraZeneca team. It's great to have you here with us today. Please turn to page 26. I would like to summarize the year-to-date and the Q3 results. Total revenue was stable despite the ongoing patent expiries and the generic competition, and they are strongly supported by our growth platforms. The core EPS was up 2%, up 8% in the quarter as we managed SG&A cost, but R&D investments increased to support our very rich pipeline. We saw very good newsflow from the pipeline and we are able to upgrade full-year 2015 guidance. We remain on track to deliver on our medium and long-term goals. With this, I would like to thank you for your attention and I will now hand back over to the operator for Q&A. For the Q&A, I kindly remind participants to limit questions to one or two questions per person so we have time for everyone. Thank you so much for your cooperation. Operator, over to you.