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AutoZone, Inc. (AZO)

Q1 2013 Earnings Call· Tue, Dec 4, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the AutoZone Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. This conference call will discuss AutoZone's first quarter financial results. Bill Rhodes, the company's Chairman, President and CEO, will be making a short presentation on the highlights of the quarter. The conference call will end promptly at 10 a.m. Central time, 11 a.m. Eastern time. Before Mr. Rhodes begins, the company has requested that you listen to the following statement regarding forward-looking statements.

Brian Campbell

Analyst

Certain statements contained in this presentation are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements typically use words such as believe, anticipate, should, intend, plan, will, expect, estimate, project, positioned, strategy and similar expressions. These are based on assumptions and assessments made by our management in light of experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, expected future developments and other factors that we believe to be appropriate. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including without limitation: credit market conditions; the impact of recessionary conditions; competition; product demand; the ability to hire and retain qualified employees; consumer debt levels; inflation; weather; raw material costs of our suppliers; energy prices; war and the prospect of war, including terrorist activity; availability of consumer transportation; construction delays; access to available and feasible financing; and changes in laws or regulations. Certain of these risks are discussed in more detail in the Risk Factors section contained in Item 1A under Part 1 of our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended August 25, 2012, and these risk factors should be read carefully.

Operator

Operator

Mr. Rhodes, you may now begin.

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for AutoZone's Fiscal 2013 First Quarter Conference Call. With me today are Bill Giles, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of IT and ALLDATA; and Brian Campbell, Vice President, Treasurer, Investor Relations and Tax. Regarding the first quarter, I hope you've had an opportunity to read our press release and learn about the quarter's results. If not, the press release, along with slides complementing our comments today, is available on our website, www.autozoneinc.com. Please click on Quarterly Earnings Conference Calls to see them. To begin this morning, I want to thank all AutoZoners across the globe for another very solid quarter. Although we faced a difficult sales environment, particularly in the Northeast, Midwest and Plains states, our team did a great job of managing expenses while executing great customer service. We are committed to steady earnings performance and efficient capital deployment, and we delivered on our commitments this quarter. On this morning's conference call, Bill Giles and I will provide color on our initiatives and our domestic DIY, Commercial Mexico and ALLDATA businesses, as well as our efforts in Brazil. To begin, I'd like to highlight the key events during the quarter. Just after our last conference call, we held our national sales meeting here in Memphis. At this event, we hosted our senior field leadership, along with the recognized best and brightest store managers, those we call our President's Club members. We reiterated our objectives to improve customer service store by store and grow our Commercial business. But we also recognize the selling environment could be challenging for a period of time. We understood the macro factors affecting our business would not be solved overnight. We stressed managing expenses carefully, but not at the detriment of customer service. To…

William T. Giles

Analyst

Thanks, Bill. Good morning, everyone. To start this morning, let me take a few moments to talk more specifically about our Retail, Commercial and International results for the quarter. For the quarter, total auto parts sales increased 3.4% on top of last year's first quarter's growth of 7.4%. This segmentation includes our domestic Retail and Commercial businesses and our Mexico stores. Regarding macro trends during the first quarter, nationally, unleaded gas prices started out at $3.78 a gallon and ended the quarter at $3.43 a gallon, a $0.35 decline. Last year, gas prices decreased similarly by $0.26 per gallon during the first quarter, starting at $3.63 and ending at $3.37 a gallon. We continue to believe gas prices have a real impact on our customers' abilities to maintain their vehicles, and we believe the recent declines in prices provide our customers with a much deserved increase in their disposable incomes. During the quarter, prices declined on a national basis steadily, consistent with the prior year trends. While there were some regional disruptions in California and with Hurricane Sandy in the Northeast, gas did come down a bit. At the same time, with gas prices remaining at these overall higher levels, we continued to communicate through our marketing messages to our customers, the steps they can take to improve their gas mileage. We also recognized that the impact of miles driven on cars over 10 years old, the current average, is much different than on newer cars in terms of wear and tear. Miles driven were down 0.3% in July, up 1.2% in August and down again 1.5% in September. At this point, we do not have data for October and November. Year-to-date through September, miles driven are up slightly 0.6% from last year. The other statistic we highlight is the…

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

Thank you, Bill. Our company has been extremely successful over the long run. We remain committed to delivering WOW! Customer Service going forward. We continue to execute at a high level and it is our incredible AutoZoners, now across the globe, who work tirelessly to achieve these results. As we've said earlier on our call, our results this past quarter were solid, but not as good as we would have liked. We continued to experience some unique regional performance differences that weigh on our results. Clearly, our business has experienced a slowdown over the last several months and we continue to believe a significant amount of that slowdown is likely due to the mild winter we experienced last year. But we are still cautious on discussing weather as the entire story. For one reason, we can't control the weather. Our charge is to optimize our performance regardless of market conditions and continue to ensure we are investing in the key initiatives that will drive our long-term performance. In the end, delivering EPS growth of 15.7% and an ROIC of 33.0% for the quarter are great results. As we look to the future, the past month's slowdown in industry sales remains a concern, and we will continue to manage our business accordingly. We believe some portion of it is due to last winter's mild winter. But that likely isn't the entire story. While we mentioned earlier that our more recent sales results have been better, we are careful not to oversell this point as we appreciate the challenging same-store sales comparison we have this quarter from last year's Q2. So while we cannot predict sales, what we do know is we will continue to effectively manage this business through good times and less good, as evidenced by our 25 consecutive quarters…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question today is from Christopher Horvers with JPMC. Rachel Stubins - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: This is Rachel Stubins for Chris Horvers. Could you provide some thoughts on what's driving the lower shrink and how long this can continue to last?

William T. Giles

Analyst

That's a great question. I mean, I think our entire organization has really done an incredible job of really focusing on all the elements that we believe cause shrink. And so it starts both from an analytical standpoint; it starts at the distribution centers; and most importantly, it starts with all of our AutoZoners in the stores taking care of our customers. And so we believe that reducing shrink really starts with great customer service, as well as some system enhancements and better inventory management control, all things that we've worked on over the past, I'd say probably 2 to 3 years. Exceptionally hard, and I think you're starting to see those results in the last, probably, 5 or 6 quarters. And we had good results this quarter as well and we expect to have slightly favorable trends going forward. But at some point in time, I'm sure it will moderate out.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Colin McGranahan with Bernstein. Colin McGranahan - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division: First question, just focusing on the top line weakness, and especially in those 3 regions. Understanding the warm weather certainly impacts the need for maintenance and repair as you come out of the winter, but we're now sitting here in the November and it's -- the weakness in these markets is lingering perhaps a little bit longer than we might have expected and you might have expected. And do you have any thoughts on the persistence of it and why that weakness continues to linger so long?

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

I think it does not necessarily surprise us, Colin. As we looked at it last year, use the brake systems or the chassis system, they didn't go through the wear and tear due to snow, ice, salt, all those different kinds of things. That just didn't happen last year. And so as we started seeing this divergence, we did anticipate that it would happen. I think even on our last call, we said that we don't necessarily anticipate we'll know the answer to it until we get into the spring. So I just think it just didn't have the rugged issues that it typically has in those areas during the winter, and we're going have to wait and see what happens next year. Colin McGranahan - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division: Okay. So when you look at the categories -- and I think in the last call you did a really nice job of that. When you look at the categories of what's selling in the business, say in October, is that not dissimilar to what's selling in the business, say in March or April, as you're coming out of the winter? I would have thought that, given you had some very hot summer weather in those regions too, in the Plains especially, that just the natural mix of the business of what's happening in October is going to be a little bit different than what's happening in March. Or am I just confused?

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

No, I think you're right. I think generally, you're going to do a lot of maintenance projects in March and in October, one coming out of winter, one going into the winter, to prepare for it. But there has been a step function change in our sales patterns and in even our demand patterns, which is where AutoZoners are looking up products, in these specific maintenance areas in those regions. And it is pretty dramatic in those regions, what we've seen, and it's persisted since about April. I think part of the winter last year was a little bit -- was disguised because it was so warm that people were doing some of those maintenance projects earlier than they typically would have, so we didn't really see it until April. But from that point on, it has been very consistent. Colin McGranahan - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division: Okay. Well, that feeds into my second question that obviously, you have that tough compare coming up here in fiscal 2Q, again some of that pull-forward demand. So given the trend, it looks possible the comps could even struggle more. You mentioned aggressive -- getting that muscle back in action, aggressively managing the cost structure and you did a pretty good job this quarter. Advertising, you pointed out. What else are you thinking about either not doing, foregoing, reducing? When you talk about aggressively managing the cost, what specific areas are you looking at?

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

Yes. I would say every single area of the company. We're looking at headcount. We've slowed our Commercial openings a little bit. That will ramp back up as we come into the spring. But we're just -- we want to be cautious as we go into the second quarter. The second quarter is always the most financially challenging quarter because it has 3 different holidays in it. Our sales performance in those quarters are always the lowest of the year, so it's always a big concern. So we're just going to be very aggressive, managing every single cost of the company as we go through Q2. And I think by the end of Q2, we'll begin seeing some signs of what the sales environment is going to look like after we annualize this winter.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Gary Balter with Credit Suisse. Gary Balter - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Could you talk about Sandy and what impact that may have had on your sales? And you mentioned that business has picked up since the end of the quarter and you attributed part of that to Sandy. Could you go into a bit more detail on that?

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

Yes, Gary. First of all, number one, I apologize for everybody that had the impacts of Sandy. I know it's been traumatic up there for many of you on this call in the Northeast and I hope everybody is doing well. For our business, Sandy over, say, a 3-week period of time, was not a material event. We saw significant deceleration in sales the week of the event. It appears we picked those sales back up over the next couple of weeks. So I would say it was not a material event in the quarter. When we talked about sales performance, we said in the last couple of weeks of the quarter, we did not address the first couple of weeks of the new quarter because we just don't like to get into ever -- get into the sales pattern of the new quarter because we release earnings within 2.5 weeks and I just don't want people trying to develop trends off of those short periods of time. As we think about Sandy, one of the corollaries we have is when we see these kinds of storms in Florida and the Mississippi Gulf Coast and Louisiana, we typically see a pretty nice increase in our business in the region for, call it, 6 months or so after the storm because there is a lot of people that do our kind of work, that come to the area to do the repairs. There's also money flowing, whether it's insurance money or FEMA, and in a lot of cases we see a nice pickup on a regional basis as a result of some of these catastrophic events. Gary Balter - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Following it up, I guess it’s also weather-related. Like you constantly mentioned like the Midwest, Northeast and the Plains as being weather impacted. Are there any changes in the competitive environment, like for example, in where -- like in Chicago, it's become a little bit more aggressive? Are there other possible explanations? Or you're -- based on your analysis, you're pretty sure this is weather.

William T. Giles

Analyst

Yes. I mean, I think one of the things that we look back on, Gary, is that we believe it's more focused on weather, just from the standpoint that we don't see a lot of changes in competitive behavior that would attribute the kind of sales performance that we've seen since that April time period going forward. And so we've done a fair amount of analysis on this, both from an external factor as well as an internal factor. And when we look at all of that analysis, there doesn't seem to be any action specifically that we are taking or that our competitors are taking that has resulted in the sales performance that we're experiencing. And we supplement that by looking at it from a category perspective. As Bill mentioned before, when you look at a lot of these maintenance categories, they seem to be hit harder than most.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Alan Rifkin with Barclays.

Alan M. Rifkin - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

When you look at the stores that are collectively supported by the 149 expanded hubs, how are these stores on the Commercial side of the business doing, relative to the stores that are not yet supported by the expanded hubs?

William T. Giles

Analyst

Yes, I think one thing to think about too is that virtually all of our stores are, at some level, supported by a hub. And you're right. We've got about 67 or so that have been expanded. And what's happening on those expanded hubs is that we we're able to introduce more coverage, and that really is the primary purpose of it, and we are seeing an increase in the sales performance of those satellite stores, as well as the Commercial programs. So it certainly gives us the confidence for us to continue to move forward with this initiative of expanding and relocating hubs where we think it's appropriate, so that we can get better coverage in those marketplaces.

Alan M. Rifkin - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And one more question, if I may. With the rollout of the labor management system, when exactly do you expect to realize results of this? And can you maybe shed a little bit more color on exactly what you are hoping the system will do for you?

William T. Giles

Analyst

I think at a high level, what we really want to make sure the system does is allow us to allocate our payroll dollars on a more surgical basis so that we are matching our hours. Like any retailer, we're trying to match our hours with our sales demand, not just generically on a Saturday but more specifically, on this individual hours during the week and specifically on the weekend. And so, the system is up and running within the stores. Like any good IT system, we're working through issues during the first couple of months. But we're getting some benefits out of it. We're certainly being able to manage and control our models at a more surgical level than we have historically and we'll continue to see benefits. I can't give you a quantification of it right now but ultimately, what we're really focused on is improving our customer service by ensuring that we've got the right number of AutoZoners during the right hours of the day.

Alan M. Rifkin - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And one last question for Bill Rhodes, if I may. Bill, does the acquisition of AutoAnything accomplish what you believe you now need to grow E-Commerce? And how exactly are you going to integrate AutoAnything with ALLDATA?

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

Well, great questions. We are very excited about AutoAnything, and I just want to spend one second to talk about the members of the management team that we've come in contact with, particularly the Klein family. It was amazing in the first meeting that we had with them. I believe it was back in July. The consistency of our business philosophies, the value structure and just -- there was a real chemistry there. So they are very focused on their culture, and I think they're going to be a phenomenal fit for us. One of the things that AutoAnything does for us is they allow us to reach into a customer segment that we really don't participate in very much even in our stores, much less over the Internet today. Their demographics are much higher-income demographics. They are very good at accessories and performance, which are areas where we don't excel at. We are fantastic on the parts side of the business. So I think that they are a very nice complement to us. We will continue to run them -- our vision is to continue to run them as a stand-alone company. Now, there are tremendous strengths that they have and there's tremendous strengths that we have, and we're going to work very collaboratively with them to find those areas of leverage and those areas of synergy so that we can improve the performance of both organizations. But we're really excited. As for ALLDATA, there's really probably not going to be any significant connections with ALLDATA. But really, the connections are going to be with our E-Commerce team here in Memphis, which is led by Jamey Traywick, who did a tremendous job working with AutoAnything and assessing this acquisition opportunity.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Matthew Fassler with Goldman Sachs.

Matthew J. Fassler - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

My 2 questions both relate to Commercial. It seemed like Commercial experienced a bit more of a deceleration on a per-program basis, the decel you saw on DIY. So I was hoping, if you boil down on those subcategories within maintenance, within those regions, sort of that real core of softness for you, how did those categories in those regions map to Commercial versus DIY?

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

Almost identical, Matt, except the impact on Commercial, as you mentioned, was a little bit more significant than it was in DIY. But it's remarkable how focused it is in the same areas of the country and how focused it is in the same categories.

Matthew J. Fassler - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And the next question, a follow-up question. Listening to Bill Giles, it sounded like you were starting to explore the notion that self-cannibalization in Commercial might be contributing to the deceleration that you're experiencing on that side of the business. And any sense you could give us as to the diagnostics that you're looking at and thinking about to make that decision? And what evidence might be leading you to think this?

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

Yes. Look, clearly as we open new programs, we cannibalize existing programs to some extent, not a tremendous extent. But the bottom line is we have 2% market share. So the fact that we cannibalize in existing stores, open a new program, to start that new program and to grow in that other market area, that's something we're willing to compromise on over the short term. Over the long term, we need to have substantially more of our stores on the Commercial program and that's our vision. And I want to be really -- I want to hit this point crystal clear: we opened 37 programs in Commercial in the first quarter. We're not going to open a ton of them in the second quarter, but we're going to open a lot in the back half of the year. It just doesn't make a lot of sense, particularly when we're dealing with a softer sales environment, to open up a lot of Commercial programs going into the second quarter where a lot of the shops are going to be closed 3 to 5 days because of holidays and the sales volumes are lower.

Matthew J. Fassler - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And then finally, well, I know you guys are always engaged in the process of self-improvement. Is there anything in particular that you're looking to do differently to drive the top line, given the results of the past couple quarters? Obviously, you've adjusted on the expense side and that has helped protect the bottom line, but is there anything else that you have in mind for the sales side?

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

Matt, we are constantly looking for ways to improve. But at the macro level, we have great confidence in our strategy. We continue to see that we're gaining market share in both Retail and Commercial in every way we can look at it. And so we're going to stick to our knitting. That's been a big part of our secret to success over the long term. It is not to change strategies on a quarter-to-quarter, week-to-week basis, to stick to it and execute it in an exceptionally high level, and that's our plan going forward.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Michael Lasser with UBS.

Michael Lasser - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

Number one, following up on Matt's question about cannibalization, do you think that the self-cannibalization has -- there's been any more evidence that it's been more intense in the Northeast, as you've put more of your new stores, new Commercial programs in those areas -- in that area over the last couple of years?

William T. Giles

Analyst

I don't think so. I don't think that the cannibalization has been really more intense per se. I think that obviously, we've opened more stores in the last fiscal year than we ever have, leading up to that point. The other thing that's also contributing to it is that we now have a much larger population of immature programs than we have had in the past. So to Bill's point, at the end of the day we've got a 2% market share so we need to continue to drive our business, both on existing programs, and some of that's going to come from expanding and relocating the hubs, getting more inventory into the market for same-day delivery, as well as being able to open more programs. We've got -- 65% of our stores today have a Commercial program, and obviously, we believe it can be significantly higher than that. So we're less focused on cannibalization, more focused on market share and just growing EBIT dollars.

Michael Lasser - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

And what are you seeing from your customers? How has the trend in customer turnover on the Commercial side been over the last few quarters? Did that grow more intense in the most recent quarter?

William T. Giles

Analyst

I wouldn't say it grew more intense over the last few quarters. I do think that -- and we don't want to keep harping on it, but I do think that the sales performance of the 3 regions that we keep highlighting have just been a lot different than the rest of the country, both DIY and specifically in Commercial as well. And so we look at it from a geographic perspective and we see differences. But on an overall basis, I wouldn't say that we're seeing differences on our individual customers.

Michael Lasser - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

And then my last question is, the improvement that you've talked about in the last few weeks, has that been driven by better performance in these 3 areas of the country that were particularly weak?

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

Yes, and I want to be careful not to overdo that. I even said it in my prepared comments. I don't want to extrapolate 2 weeks' performance. It was post-Sandy and clearly, we saw improvements in that period of time. And particularly in the Northeast but also in the Midwest, where all of those markets actually turned positive for those couple of weeks. But I would just be careful. We said all along it's going to be spring before we really know, and I don't want anybody to try to extrapolate those couple of weeks that were promising to us. But it's also been 74 degrees down here over the weekend, so we're still looking for winter to hit.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Michael Baker with Deutsche Bank.

Michael Baker - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

Can you talk about what you're seeing in terms of pricing in the Commercial side, as you've seen a little bit of a slowdown, and others might as well? Are your Commercial customers getting a little bit more focused on price as their business slows?

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

I think anytime an organization is faced with a challenging sales environment, and clearly our Commercial customers are, they get focused just like we've been focused on, how do they improve their profitability? And yes, there has been a bit more focus on pricing. I don't want to over-extrapolate that either, but there's clearly focus on, how can they get the best value? And we think we provide them with a tremendous value.

Michael Baker - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

So is this causing you guys to lower price? And what kind of -- how does that play into your gross margin trends going forward?

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

I wouldn't try to say that it's going to have a material impact on our margins. It hasn't at this point in time. What we want to do is we want to make sure that we're conveying the complete value proposition. There's a lot of other things that we do. We've got great pricing today, always have, always will, but there's other elements that are important to our strategy.

Michael Baker - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And one more on this Commercial question. So your Commercial sales growth was up less than the growth in the number of Commercial stores, so in other words, sales per Commercial store was down. We could probably figure this out from all the data, but if you could just help us. Is that solely because of adding more immature stores? Or I guess, here's the question, Commercial store this year versus Commercial store of last year, the sort of like-for-like Commercial stores, are those negative year-over-year? Or are those positive?

William T. Giles

Analyst

No. They're not negative. I think you got to look at a lot of the immaturity levels of the new programs coming in.

Operator

Operator

Our final question today is from Bret Jordan with BB&T Capital Markets. Bret David Jordan - BB&T Capital Markets, Research Division: A couple of quick questions, and one of them being on AutoAnything. As you focus more into the performance, and especially parts, is that a category you might roll out physically into the stores as well? Or you intend to just keep that online?

William T. Giles

Analyst

Well, we have some of it in the stores today, but the fact of the matter is that is a very SKU-intensive business. And so it really affords itself very well for online, and so we think there's real opportunities to be able to capture market share online. And AutoAnything does a really good job on accessories and performance. Bret David Jordan - BB&T Capital Markets, Research Division: So we shouldn't be thinking about planograms changing a whole lot...

William T. Giles

Analyst

I wouldn't think about that, no.

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

No, the one thing... Bret David Jordan - BB&T Capital Markets, Research Division: [indiscernible] one final question on the gross margin. You had talked about improving acquisition cost. Is that better pricing from same vendors? Or is that changing the supply chain, more direct, anything on that?

William T. Giles

Analyst

It's a combination of both to some extent, but we're also getting better pricing. And when you think back over a year ago, we had a lot of price inflation that we're not necessarily experiencing today. That coupled with the fact that we're getting better pricing and our merchandising team is doing a great job on sourcing as well. And so... Bret David Jordan - BB&T Capital Markets, Research Division: And is there a tradeoff there? I guess you're sort of flat on the AP-ed inventory at 112-ish percent. Is it -- as you don't take that up, do you get better pricing from the vendors in exchange?

William T. Giles

Analyst

I don't think so.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Bill Rhodes for closing comments.

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

Okay, before we conclude the call, I'd just like to take a moment to reiterate that our business model continues to be solid. We're excited about our growth prospects for the year. We will not take anything for granted, as we understand our customers have alternatives. Our culture remains our key point of differentiation from our competition, and we must not lose sight of the importance of basic store execution in order to remain very successful. We have a solid plan to succeed for the remainder of 2013, but I want to stress that this is a marathon, not a sprint. As we continue to focus on the basics and focus on optimizing long-term shareholder value, we are confident AutoZone will continue to be very successful. Lastly, I'd like to wish everyone a very happy and healthy holiday season, and a prosperous new year. We thank you for participating in today's call. Have a great day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. Thank you very much for joining. You may disconnect at this time.