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AutoZone, Inc. (AZO)

Q3 2013 Earnings Call· Tue, May 21, 2013

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the AutoZone Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised, today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. This conference call will discuss AutoZone's second quarter financial results. Bill Rhodes, the company's Chairman, President and CEO, will be making a short presentation on the highlights of the quarter. The conference call will end promptly at 10 a.m. Central Time, 11 a.m. Eastern Time. Before Mr. Rhodes begins, the company has requested that you listen to the following statement regarding forward-looking statements.

Unknown Executive

Analyst

Certain statements contained in this presentation are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements typically use words such as believe, anticipate, should, intend, plan, will, expect, estimate, project, position, strategy and similar expressions. These are based on assumptions and assessments made by our management in light of experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, expected future developments and other factors that we believe to be appropriate. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including without limitation: credit market conditions; the impact of recessionary conditions; competition; product demand; the ability to hire and retain qualified employees; consumer debt levels; inflation; weather; raw material costs of our suppliers; energy prices; war and the prospect of war, including terrorist activity; availability of consumer transportation; construction delays; access to available and feasible financing; and changes in laws or regulations. Certain of these risks are discussed in more detail in the Risk Factors section contained in Item 1A under Part 1 of our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended August 25, 2012, and these risk factors should be read carefully.

Operator

Operator

Mr. Rhodes, you may now begin.

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for AutoZone's 2013 Third Quarter Conference Call. With me today are Bill Giles, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, IT and ALLDATA; and Brian Campbell, Vice President, Treasurer, Investor Relations and Tax. Regarding the third quarter, I hope you've had an opportunity to read our press release and learn about the quarter's results. If not, the press release, along with slides complementing our comments today, is available on our website, www.autozoneinc.com. Please click on Quarterly Earnings Conference Calls to see them. To begin this morning, I want to thank all AutoZoners across the globe for another very solid quarter. Similar to last year, our sales performance included some significant volatility over the 12-week period. From our perspective, the most important takeaways from the quarter were: one, trends improved during the last 4 weeks of our quarter; two, our sales trends in the most challenged markets also improved; three, retail sales improved during these last 4 weeks on both a 1-year and a 2-year basis, with positive same-store sales results in that period, a trend we have not been able to report for quite some time; four, we opened 102 new commercial programs in the quarter and expect Q4 Commercial sales to improve from here; and lastly, the capital allocation and earnings model for our company remains strong and intact. Our ability to manage in good sales environments and not so good has allowed us to deliver 27 consecutive quarters of double-digit EPS growth. That consistency allows us to be shareholder-friendly through our stock buybacks, and bondholder-friendly through a targeted investment grade rating and financial transparency. We are excited about our opportunities to grow our business in both this quarter and in future periods. We continue to manage this company for…

William T. Giles

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. To start this morning, let me take a few moments to talk more specifically about our Retail, Commercial and international results for the quarter. For the quarter, total auto parts sales, which includes our domestic Retail and Commercial businesses, our Mexico stores and our one store in Brazil, increased 2.9% on top of last year's third quarter's growth of 6.7%. Regarding macro trends during the quarter, nationally, unleaded gas prices started out at $3.61 a gallon and ended the quarter at $3.54 a gallon, a $0.07 decrease. Last year, gas prices increased by $0.27 per gallon during the quarter, starting at $3.52 and ending at $3.79 a gallon. We continue to believe gas prices have a real impact on our customers' abilities to maintain their vehicles, and we will continue to monitor prices closely in the future. We also recognize that the impact of miles driven on cars over 10 years old, the current average, is much different than on newer cars in terms of wear and tear. Miles driven were up in January 0.6%, but down versus last year, 1.4% in February. And the other statistic we highlight is the number of 7-year-old -- 7 year and older vehicles on the road, which continues to trend in our industry's favor. Lastly, another key macro issue facing our customers today is the reinstitution of payroll taxes back to historic norms. This reduction in our customers' take-home pay just began at the beginning of the new calendar year and, at this point, combined with the delay in income tax refunds and seasonal weather trends, it is hard to objectively quantify the ramifications of this change. However, we believe this is, and will continue to have, a negative impact on our consumers' ability to spend. For the trailing 4…

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

Thanks, Bill. We are pleased to report our 27th consecutive quarter of double-digit EPS growth and to report an EPS growth rate of 15.8% for our fiscal third quarter. Clearly, our sales performance has not met our expectations, as we have experienced softer sales over the past few quarters. Based on our recent results, we continue to believe we should experience an improvement in sales for the remainder of the year. The basis for this expectation is the confluence of a more normalized winter and easier sales comparisons, combined with strong execution of our plans, including enhanced product assortments, improved productivity in our existing commercial programs and continued new commercial program growth. The hardest things to predict for us when it comes to our performance are macro factors and in particular, the weather. Spring arrived much later than normal this year and materially later than last year, and it clearly dampened our performance in the first 2/3 of the third quarter. But we can't control the weather, and over time, its effects even out. Ultimately, our actions determine our performance, and we continue to be pleased with the strategies we have in place, and quite pleased with the execution of those strategies. But that doesn't mean we aren't looking to improve. We are constantly testing new ideas and innovations to determine what is successful and what isn't. We will keep you apprised of our developments as they progress. Again, we are excited about our initiatives around inventory assortment, hub stores, Commercial growth, Mexico, ALLDATA, eCommerce and Brazil. Our long-term model is to grow new store square footage at a low-single-digit growth rate, and we expect to continue growing our Commercial business at an accelerated rate. Therefore, we look to routinely grow EBIT dollars in the mid-single-digit range or better in…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question today is from Alan Rifkin with Barclays.

Alan M. Rifkin - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

A couple of questions, if I may. First on the Commercial programs. Can you maybe give a little bit of color on what the productivity levels are for the programs that are under 3 years old, since it's such a significant portion compared to the more mature programs? And then I have a follow up, please.

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

Yes, Alan, I don't want to get into too many specifics on it, but clearly, they're much less mature and they come out significantly below the existing programs. The other thing that I think is important, and I'm not sure everybody understands, is as those programs open, many times, probably most of the time, they also cannibalize the existing programs. So some of the growth in the productivity of the Commercial programs right now is muted because we do have those 900 stores that, over the last 3 years, have done some cannibalization of the existing programs. At the end of the day, we're not meeting our aspirations, but the underlying performance of the new programs and the existing programs, when you take everything into account, we're generally pleased with.

Alan M. Rifkin - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. So for the select group of markets, Bill, like the west, where you said was better, and let's say the southeast, where weather really was not an impact, did those markets collectively perform on your plan?

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

I think for the first 2/3 of this quarter, I would say they were generally aligned with where our expectations were. In the last 1/3 of the quarter, frankly, the northeast and midwest is where we really saw very strong performance, as they rebounded in a significant way.

Alan M. Rifkin - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. And then just lastly, real quick, the 82 expanded hubs, I mean, any sort of color as to how much more productive these hubs are? And do you ultimately plan to expand every single one of the 154?

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

Yes. Our objective is to expand all the 154. Obviously, we've made great progress so far, getting 82 opened in less than 3 years -- 82 expanded or relocated in less than 3 years. As we get farther down the cycle, because these are real estate deals, we've done the easy ones. Now we have more complicated ones ahead. So the pace will likely slow. As for how they're performing, this is the first time that we've ever deployed capital really for our hub stores. If you think originally, all we did was take existing space that was there and leverage it to put the product assortments. So the easiest way for me to show you that they're meeting our expectations is we continue to make real estate acquisitions and build buildings because they're exceeding our expectation -- meeting or exceeding our expectations. So we're pretty pleased with them.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Gary Balter with Credit Suisse. Simeon Gutman - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: It's Simeon Gutman for Gary. Two questions. First, Bill Rhodes, you talked a lot about the regionality. And so I think that, that kind of helps explain some of the, I guess, cyclical versus secular arguments. Is there anything else you can point to, be it age of vehicles or other factoids that they kind of point to, that this is -- I guess, a year ago's downturn was more cyclical?

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

Yes. I think we're going to stick with what we said for the last year. This isn't a new story. I think the last 3 calls, we talked about the fact that we thought last winter, the lack of winter in the midwest and northeast last year did not cause the same level of maintenance requirements or failure items because the roads weren't messed up. So far, that prognostication has come to effect, but we're 1 month into it. We've seen April come. And I also want to reinforce the 2 points that we've made in our prepared remarks, we're also a little concerned about the consumer. This economy is still not booming, particularly for the low-end consumer, and we've seen them be in a difficult situation now for more than 4 years, and they're all still trying to get readjusted to the reinstitution of payroll taxes. Gary Balter - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: So how should we think about that in terms of weighing off -- obviously, the weather is driving -- helping the comps and we think will continue to help the comps as you've talked about. But at what level does that get hurt? Or like what say -- where does that kind of peak out because you still have this macro issue overriding it?

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

Simeon, your voice changed. Hello, Gary. Gary Balter - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Got a Canadian accent.

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

Gary, here's the deal. That's what you guys do. You guys are as good at this as we are. We're going to plan our business conservative, like we always do, hope for upside and make sure that we continue to deliver strong performance. I can't tell you sitting here today what the number is, and you know that, that's not our practice, to provide guidance. Gary Balter - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: And last one, if the weather markets do get better and maintenance categories start picking up, what does that mean for gross margin? Does it bode well for gross margin? How does it mix out?

William T. Giles

Analyst

I think, overall, we've had good performance on gross margin. Think back that we had some lower acquisition costs this quarter, frankly for the last 3 or 4 quarters. So as we get into Q4, we'll likely begin to anniversary some of the lower acquisition costs that we experienced over the last year or so. So we expect gross margin in and of itself to remain reasonably healthy. Also, in the spirit of full and fair disclosure, AutoAnything will obviously have a negative impact to gross margin. That impacted us about 40 basis points this quarter. That's probably a fair number for next quarter as well. And then at some point, we'll anniversary that and move forward. Like we say, we always manage gross profit on terms of dollars, not so much rate.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Colin McGranahan with Bernstein. Colin McGranahan - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division: I know you're tired of talking about the spread between the cold weather markets and not, but I'm a little confused here. So if you can first just get the facts right for me. Did you say in March there was a 600-basis-point spread between the cold weather markets and the rest, but for the quarter was 150 bps?

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

Yes. What we said, Colin, was it's been about 500 for the last few quarters. Q3 to date through the end of March, it was 600 basis points, and it ended the quarter only with 150 basis points, which means it significantly outperformed in the month of April. Colin McGranahan - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division: I'm sorry, the whole quarter was 150? Or at the end of the quarter, it was running 150?

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

The whole quarter was 150. Colin McGranahan - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division: So that would mean that the cold weather market significantly comped positive above the rest of the house in April?

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

That would be correct. Colin McGranahan - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division: Okay. So how do you -- we think about that in terms of just -- obviously, February and March were really bad, and the normal spring maintenance that would have happened in March didn't happen because the weather was so bad. How do we think about that just getting pushed into April?

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

Yes. I think several things. Number one, I don't want to get too excited, and we're not getting too excited about 1 month. We have variability in our sales all the time, week-to-week, month-to-month, and I don't want that to get overstated by any stretch. Now there's a couple of things that made it happen in April this year. Number one, the tax refund benefit that we normally see late January, early February, never materialized. A lot of times, that comes in deferred maintenance, and people get out and do those jobs. That never happened this year. Also, last year, March was particularly strong in the northeast and midwest as we called out, and April was pretty weak. Well, this year, it was very cold and very wet throughout March in that part of the country. All of a sudden, they got some glimmers of improved weather in April, and there was pent-up demand they took -- they did it. But again, I don't want to get too crazy about -- or too exuberant about the performance in those markets in April. One month doesn't make a trend. We got a long way to go. We got a lot of sales that we feel like we're owed in that part of the country. Colin McGranahan - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division: Okay. That's fair. And then maybe just a bigger picture. I know that you have, for a long time, looked at miles driven as the longest-term indicator of the health of the business, and especially miles driven on older cars. Any thoughts on why we haven't seen any real recovery in miles driven since the recession?

William T. Giles

Analyst

I think that it really kind of speaks a little bit to -- Bill talked about it before. I mean, we don't really necessarily see the economy picking up. Unemployment rate is down a little bit, but the fact is there's still a significant number of people unemployed and maybe even off of the charts. So miles driven has been relatively flat, as you pointed out. Gas prices have been moderately flat. The age of the vehicles continue to increase, so that's helpful for our business over the long haul. Obviously, miles driven on a 10-plus-year-old vehicle is more impactful than it is on a brand-new vehicle as far as maintenance and wear and tear is concerned. So we think that, that continues to create decent demand and decent industry tailwinds overall. But in terms of miles driven, it's been relatively flat, and we don't anticipate that changing dramatically. Colin McGranahan - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division: Okay. Final quick one, market share. Any sense of how you did?

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

Yes. We continue to do fine on market share. Our gaps have closed over a period of time, and there have been months where -- in the retail sector, where we've lost a little bit of market share. But they've shown significant improvements as we've seen our sales start to rebound.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Dan Wewer with Raymond James. Daniel R. Wewer - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division: Bill Giles, you commented on your prepared comments that you do not see any structural impediments for your Commercial sales program matching some of your competitors. I guess you're referring to NAPA and O'Reilly. When you indicated no structural impediment, do you think you can achieve that productivity with your current distribution strategy that does not include same-day fulfillment from your large distribution centers?

William T. Giles

Analyst

Although the way to think about it is that we do have same-day delivery out of the hubs. And so when you hear us talk about the 154 hubs that we have out there, the 82 hubs that we have expanded over the last 2 or 3 years, and we'll have several more hubs that will continue to be expanded over the next couple of years, and we continue to really optimize those hubs, both in terms of coverage, as well as delivery, our objective is really to get those products into the marketplace so they can be delivered on a same-day basis out of the hubs. And so the distribution centers will be a backup support for that. But the real key is for us to forward deploy inventory right into the marketplace so that we can get it to the customers as quick as we can. And we think the hub strategy is the one that will get us there. And we obviously have work to do. We're not there yet, but you'll see us continue to invest in hubs, and you'll see us continue invest in inventory. Daniel R. Wewer - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division: When you look at the 3,000 programs that are in place today, do you have a meaningful number that are achieving the same weekly sales volumes as those more established commercial competitors?

William T. Giles

Analyst

We certainly have programs out there that are achieving the numbers that you would see from our established competitors, without question. And so obviously, from our perspective, it's meaningful. And it also indicates to us that -- and that's kind of how we make that statement, is that there's no structural impediments because we actually have programs out there that are actually delivering that. So we know it is possible. Daniel R. Wewer - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division: And then the last question I had revolves expenses. It sounds like there may have been a few one-timers in the quarter, got a lower incentive comp, talked about a gain on sale of an asset. What do you think is the sustainable growth rate in SG&A going forward?

William T. Giles

Analyst

We're going to manage SG&A -- and you've always heard me say this, is that we're going to manage SG&A given the sales environment that we're operating in. I mean, with respect to the sale on asset, I mean, we always have periodically some sale on assets. The fact of the matter is, the organization really did a good job this quarter, as they do most all quarters, of really tightly managing the expenses based on the sales environment that we are operating in. And so there really wasn't a lot of significant fluctuation, which is why we called out the ones that we did. But I think on a long-term basis, we're going to continue to tightly manage expenses, and we're going to respond to the sales environment that we're competing in.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Matthew Fassler with Goldman Sachs.

Matthew Vigneau - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

This is Matt Vigneau on for Matt Fassler. I had one question about inventory. Would like to ask about the opportunities for incremental investment and your assessments on the returns you're achieving and where the opportunity is greatest within DIY versus Commercial.

William T. Giles

Analyst

Yes. I would say they're equally opportunistic. One of the things that we find as we continue to invest in inventory, particularly to hubs, as well as the individual satellite stores or the individual retail stores themselves, is that we get inventory productivity out of both Commercial and DIY, which is the beauty of the model overall, is that we have an ability to really leverage the inventory from both a DIY and Commercial perspective. Every time that we add inventory, many times it may be focused on Commercial. The fact is that we get benefits out of both. And so from a return perspective, obviously, we have stringent return metrics overall. But at the end of the day, we need to make sure that we've got adequate coverage in the marketplace, and we're going to continue to invest in inventory to ensure that we have adequate coverage in the marketplace in order for us to further gain market share. I don't know if that answers it, but that's how we look at it.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from John Lawrence with Stephens.

John R. Lawrence - Stephens Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Bill, would you start off with just talking a little bit on the Commercial side? Through this volatility you talked about the last couple of years, how would you talk about sales force productivity, who they're calling on, the chains or the independents, and how does that sort of ebb and flow throughout this volatility?

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

Yes. I think I'd start with how pleased we are with the development of our sales force. You step back 5 years ago, we didn't have a sales force, and now we have a very professional sales force. And our organization has really spent a tremendous amount of time training our sales force to do it the AutoZone way, and also providing them with the tools, a lot of which are technological tools, to make them incredibly efficient, and also gives us great insights into where they're spending their time and what are the results when they spend their time in certain areas. But as far as trying to say where they're spending their time based upon the class of trade, I would say they're spending a lot of time on both the national accounts and on the independent up and down the street operators. Both of those are -- provide us tremendous opportunities, and they're both performing fairly well.

John R. Lawrence - Stephens Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And secondly, could you give us a sense of what percentage of inventory or sales is Duralast products at this point?

William T. Giles

Analyst

Our Duralast product continues to be probably just over 50%. You've seen over time, if you allow me to stretch back for a couple of years, where we've actually introduced it into some additional categories that previously we may have thought were impossible, Wiper Blades being a great example of that. So as we continue to look forward, obviously, there's fewer opportunities because we're taking advantage of a lot of those opportunities. But we still believe there's opportunities for us to continue to introduce the Duralast brand into other categories. But today, it's just over 50% with a slight increase.

John R. Lawrence - Stephens Inc., Research Division

Analyst

And lastly, AutoAnything. Bill, is there anything -- I know it's early, but anything you've seen conceptually, strategically that's different than you thought? Or opportunities that you see that you could share at this point?

William T. Giles

Analyst

Yes, I think that's right, John. It's a little too early to share much. I mean, it's -- we're very excited about the acquisition. We're very excited about the team at AutoAnything. We're excited about the customer base that they have, the categories that they really penetrate strongly that are opportunistic for us. And I think the synergies between the 2 organizations are just starting to take place. So overall, we're pleased with the acquisition. And we think, strategically, on a long-term basis, it'll be a great fit for our customer.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Bret Jordan with BB&T Capital Markets. Bret David Jordan - BB&T Capital Markets, Research Division: A couple of quick questions and one just housekeeping. What was the SG&A impact on the lower incentive comp in the quarter?

William T. Giles

Analyst

Around 10 points or so. Bret David Jordan - BB&T Capital Markets, Research Division: Okay. And then I guess as you look into the current quarter and the closing of the gap on regional performance, it was 500-odd bps last year in Q4. We've got a few weeks of May under our belt. Is the trend continuing there that you can close that gap going forward?

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

Yes, Bret. I don't want to get into what the trends in May since the end of the quarter are. We have a very strong practice of releasing our earnings very quickly after the end of the quarter. So here we are talking about this quarter after 2 weeks and 3 days. And I just -- I don't think it's prudent for anybody to get into what's going on in the last 2-week trends. So we tried to give you as much color as possible on April so you could understand that. But as a general practice, we don't want to get into the new quarter. Bret David Jordan - BB&T Capital Markets, Research Division: Okay. And then one last question sort of following up on John's on the inventory trend and Duralast brand potential. As you build out the Commercial mix and you add incremental hard parts, is that something that is going to be a longer-term headwind to the Duralast mix as a percentage of sales? I mean, are the Commercial customers looking for branded product? Or are you getting traction, convincing them that the Duralast product line is as good as the branded alternative?

William T. Giles

Analyst

No, we get a lot of traction actually on the Duralast brand, and so we don't believe that, that's anything but positive. And so if we thought that there was a branded product that would make a difference, we'd introduce it. But the fact is, and we've done it many times before, have found that the Duralast product -- it's a high-quality product and we get it into the hands of our Commercial customers, and they see it. And obviously, we back it up with warranties, et cetera. And so that product continues to be received well. And so we certainly don't see that as a hurdle for us to get over, just the opposite. Bret David Jordan - BB&T Capital Markets, Research Division: Okay. And then one last question. In AutoAnything and some of the more discretionary product mix that they carry, are you saying that category working better across the stores as well as discretionary coming back at all, beyond what you've added in the AutoAnything mix?

William T. Giles

Analyst

Yes. We've obviously -- it's relatively new at the moment. AutoAnything is being operated relatively separate from the AutoZone stores at the moment. And so we're continuing to evolve and develop AutoAnything. But there are certainly SKU-intensive categories that exist on AutoAnything that lend themselves to online shopping, and so that's our focus at the moment. Long term, there will be some opportunities for us to integrate the 2. But at the moment, they're being operated as a standalone. Bret David Jordan - BB&T Capital Markets, Research Division: Okay. So you haven't changed. I've seen some stores that seem to have a heavier discretionary mix in some performance parts and appearance accessories, that you're not changing your SKU mix on the Retail format in some markets to sort of test that product out?

William T. Giles

Analyst

No more than we would normally. I wouldn't equate it to an AutoAnything transaction.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Greg Melich with ISI Group.

Gregory S. Melich - ISI Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

I've got a follow-up on inflation, which is something that used to sort of run around 2% in the industry and then seemed to go away last year. Could you give us an update on where we are with that and also the promotional environment, given that everyone seems to able to buy stuff cheaper than they did a couple of years ago?

William T. Giles

Analyst

Yes. I think you hit it. I mean, the fact is, is that I think probably -- you're right. About 2 years ago, we had some inflation last year. It was relatively moderate. And so far, this year, we're seeing it relatively moderate. And that's why in our prepared remarks, as Bill said, we're seeing the pricing index not really look as though it's going to be increasing much. So we don't see inflation being a positive or a negative necessarily. It's kind of a neutral overall. From a promotional perspective, I would say that we're not really seeing anything different in the marketplace promotionally. I mean, there's certainly a category or a product here and there that might have some increased promotional activity for a short period of time. But on an overall basis, I would say that we're not necessarily seeing any kind of a change in promotional activity per se. There will always be some price adjustments, but not any kind of promotional activity per se.

Gregory S. Melich - ISI Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Great. And then just looking at the quarter, Bill, I think in your prepared remarks, you mentioned that the 2-year comp was better as well. Were you referencing April in that regard? Or were you talking just about the quarter?

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

Yes, that was specifically about April. We did have a very strong April, and I didn't want people to think it was a one-year lap. So it was 2 years we've grown same-store sales.

Gregory S. Melich - ISI Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Got it. And you -- so now that you look at all the Easter shifts and the weather and all that, do you think the base that we're working with now for this quarter is something that's more normal?

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

I hope so. I think what we've been saying for the last 9 months is once we annualize that crazy winter last year in 2011 and 2012, we would anticipate more normalized run rates. And so I think we're sticking with that at this point in time.

William T. Giles

Analyst

And then just also taking into -- taking into account also the macro effects that Bill talked about before with the payroll tax, that's the one factor that we don't really know, on a long-term basis, what the impact is to our consumer.

Gregory S. Melich - ISI Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Got it. And then just lastly on SG&A, given some of the puts and takes there and how you historically were able to bring that dollar growth down to basically flat or just up 1% or 2% way back when comps were flattish for a sustained period, how do you think about SG&A now? It seems like it should, just on a dollar basis, grow more than it would have 6 or 7 years ago, given the growth in Commercial. Am I thinking about that right? Or...

William T. Giles

Analyst

Yes, I think you are. I think the fact is, is that we want to continue to invest in the business. We want to make sure that we're continuing to deliver WOW! Customer Service and being able to take market share. So we're all about making sure that we've got a good face to the customer and that we're providing great service. And we're going to invest properly to do that. That starts all the way from training to customer service, to hubs and to inventory, et cetera.

Operator

Operator

Our final question today is from Aram Rubinson with Nomura.

Chris Bottiglieri

Analyst

This is actually Chris Bottiglieri on for Aram Rubinson. My question is, as a newer entrant to the commercial space, what changes do you expect to make in order to reach the next level of growth in your existing markets? Do you see that driven more by pricing? Is it going to be a change to sales or service?

William C. Rhodes

Analyst

I think it's going to remain sticking with our strategy. You've never heard us talk about price being a key driver. We don't think -- we want to be a trusted partner with our Commercial customers, and that means we want to sell them at a reasonable price. We want to have the inventory that they need. We want to get it to them as quick as humanly possible and really build a long-term relationship that certainly is broader than price. All right. Before we conclude the call, I'd like to take a moment to reiterate that our business model continues to be solid. We're excited about our growth prospects for the year. We'll not take anything for granted, as we understand our customers have alternatives. Our culture remains our key point of differentiation from our competition, and we must not lose sight of the importance of basic store execution in order to remain very successful. We have a very solid plan to succeed for the remainder of the fiscal year, but I want to stress that this is a marathon and not a sprint. As we continue to focus on the basics and focus on optimizing long-term shareholder value, we are confident AutoZone will continue to be very successful. Before we close, also, I'd just like to wish everybody a very happy Memorial Day. And obviously, our thoughts are with those folks in Oklahoma who went through so much devastation yesterday. So thank you for participating in today's call.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. Thank you for joining. You may disconnect at this time.