Aaron Regent
Analyst · Deutsche Bank
Thanks, Deni, and good afternoon. And thank you for joining our call. I'm joined here today by Jamie Sokalsky, Peter Kinver and Kelvin Dushnisky, as well as other members of our senior management team who will be available to answer questions at the end of the call. What I thought we would do today is cover the highlights of our first quarter results, provide an update on our projects and then of course talk at length about our proposal to acquire Equinox Minerals. [ph] I'll turn the call over to Jamie who can take us through the financials, as well as provide an outlook on the gold market. After which, we'll be happy to take your questions. First, looking at the quarter, we had a strong quarter. Net earnings were $1 billion or $1 per share. Adjusted net earnings were up 32% to $1 billion or $1.01 per share. That translates into annualized return on equity of around 20%. Our operating cash flow is up 27% to $1.44 billion. Our cash margins were up 32% to $952 per ounce, and our net cash margins were up 32% to $1,081 per ounce. We produced 1.96 million ounces in the quarter at a total cash cost of $437 per ounce. And net cash costs were $308 per ounce. Our North American region performed ahead of plan, producing around 862,000 ounces at a cost of $396, mainly due to higher production from Cortez and Goldstrike. The Cortez mine has exceeded plan with production of 366,000 ounces at a cost of $220 per ounce on higher-than-budgeted grades. Both the Goldstrike operation performed strongly, contributing 286,000 ounces at a cost of $461 and also on better-than-expected grades from the open pit and the underground. Our South American region also came in ahead of plan, contributing 498,000 ounces at a cost of $340 per ounce. The Veladero mine produced 260,000 ounces at a cost of $312 due to higher-than-planned drawdown of the leach pad inventory, while Lagunas Norte contributed 193,000 ounces at a cost of $282 per ounce, which is in line with our expectations. Australia Pacific produced 459,000 ounces at a cost of $585 per ounce, and African Barrick Gold production attributed to us was 129,000 ounces at a cost of $658 per ounce. To the next slide, our strategy. I'll just like to give you an update on our exploration side. We have a significant exploration program, which has been very successful in adding reserves and resources to the company. I think the success we had last year has caused us to increase the budget by more than 50%. Last year, our budget was around $210 million. This year, our budget is around $330 million. We've had a lot of success. The budget has increased because of the success we've on the exploration front, and we're very optimistic about the results that we will be able to hopefully share with you through the course of the year. I'll give you a brief update on our projects. The first slide talks about Cortez, which is the newest mine that we brought into production. And as I mentioned earlier, Cortez continues to exceed our expectations, performing ahead of plan and we are already benefiting from its significant attractive cost profile. 2011, we expect to produce about 1.3 million ounces at a cost of around $235 to $265 per ounce. Cortez has been a terrific addition to our portfolio and based on a gold price of $1,500 per ounce, this one mine alone will produce about $1.5 billion of pretax cash flow. I think significantly, the Record of Decision approving the Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement was issued by the BLM in mid-March, which allowed us to revert, allowed this operation to revert to its original scope. Pueblo Viejo, commissioning -- it continues to be expected in the fourth quarter of this year. Overall, construction is about 55% complete. All 4 of the autoclaves and the oxygen plant have been installed and 2 of the 4 autoclaves, which you can see in this photo, have been brick-lined in preparations for operations. 85% of the planned concrete has been poured and about 85% of the steel has been erected and more than 3.2 million tons of ore have been stockpiled. Our environmental permits for temporary power sources were secured during the quarter and work continues toward achieving key milestones, including the connection of power to the site. And as a reminder, about 80% of the preproduction capital of around $3.3 billion, $3.5 billion has committed and our share of production, we own 60%, our share of production in the first 5 years will be between 625,000 and 675,000 ounces at a cost of around $275 to $300 per ounce. So like Cortez at today's prices, our share of the cash flow will be roughly $800 million per year. At Pascua-Lama, initial production continues to be expected in the first half of 2013. Earthworks are more than 65% complete and preparations are underway to begin pre-stripping in the fourth quarter. Construction of the power transmission lines is progressing and the new access road is expected to be available during the second quarter. In Argentina, platforms for core ore [ph] stockpile and grinding areas are nearing completion, which allow first concrete to be poured for the process plant in the second quarter. Occupancy of the construction camps in Chile and Argentina continues to ramp up with more than 3,200 people now housed on site. And currently, about 45% of the preproduction capital budget, which is around $3.3 billion to $3.6 billion, has now been committed. Our share of the annual gold production in the first 5 years of operation will be around 750,000 to 800,000 ounces at a very low cash cost of $20 to $50 per ounce, but that's based on a $16 silver price. And as we highlighted before, for every $1 per ounce increase in the silver price, total cash costs are expected to decrease by about $35 per ounce. So today's silver prices, this would be close to a negative $1,000 per cash cost buy or looked at another way, at today's prices, Pascua could generate around $1.8 billion of pretax cash flow. Briefly touching on our other projects, specifically in Cerro Casale, Donlin, Reko Diq and Kabanga. And just a reminder, these projects contain a middle inventory of around 63 million ounces of gold and 20 billion pounds of copper and about 1.7 billion pounds of nickel. At Cerro Casale, which we own 75%, preparation of the necessary permitting documentation for the Environmental Impact Assessment is underway, alongside discussions with the government and meetings with local communities and indigenous groups. An update on the project capital will be provided with our second quarter results. The Donlin Creek feasibility study indicates that it has the ability to produce over 1 million ounces of gold per year. The focus right now is to continue to complete the work on the natural gas pipeline option in the second half of this year. Then at Reko Diq, the initial mine development feasibility study and EIS are both complete and the project has now applied for a mining license, which we're currently working through with the authorities. In the past, we talked about our focus on trying to identify and service additional opportunities within our asset base to enhance the amount of minerals and gold that we could develop, as well as create other opportunities to pull our capital. The one area we had great success was with respect to Turquoise Ridge. Here, we have identified several new opportunities and if you recall, Turquoise Ridge is a high-grade underground deposit, surrounded by a low-grade halo. And the potential is to increase the production from Turquoise Ridge from around 150,000 to 200,000 ounces to around 800,000 ounces, given that the mineral resource will increase from around 5 million ounces to over 20 million ounces. Currently, the scoping study has assumed acid autoclaving with CIL processing at a rate of around 15,000 tons per day to the existing autoclave facility at Goldstrike. And the expanded operation would be expected to have a 25-year mine life. The pre-feasibility study is underway and it's expected to be completed in 2012. In support of the study, and pit optimization, we are currently conducting infill drilling of the lower-grade halo with 9 rigs: 6 of which are on surface, 3 of which are underground to upgrade mineral inventory and resources. I'd say initial results are positive and are confirming our expectations. For 2011, the total budget spend is just over $60 million for a work plan that includes ongoing infill drilling and geotechnical drilling, metallurgical testing and process option trade-off studies, as well as environmental baseline work to support future permitting efforts. This next slide shows you a feel for the scope of the potential expansion. The current high-grade underground reserve is shown in the yellow, inside the conceptual pit, which should also mine the lower-grade halo shown in orange. And this is a potential 800,000 ounce per year producer and it's in our portfolio located in Nevada. Now the Zaldívar copper mine. We've identified the potential to add significant resources and production from the primary sulfide, which sits below the current life of mine open pit. A total of 68,000 meters of exploration drilling has been completed on the sulfide material. The conceptual engineering study on the treatment of the primary sulfide material has been completed, which indicates production could potentially increase by approximately 300 million pounds of copper per year for about 25 years. The pre-feasibility study is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2012, along with an associated environmental baseline study. And the full feasibility study is then expected to commence that will progress through detailed engineering, providing the information and details necessary for a decision on this project. And then at our Lagunas Norte Mine, we are advancing at an opportunity to add a potential 3 million ounces of gold production which could extend the mine life by about 5 years. During 2010, the metallurgical process to treat in-pit sulfide and carbonaceous refractory material was defined. The scope of the study is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter this year, advancing the project into a pre-feasibility study in 2012. I'd now like to comment on our plans to acquire Equinox Minerals. On Monday, we announced an agreement to acquire Equinox for $8.15 per share for a total purchase price of around $7.3 billion. And as we've said before, this offer has been unanimously supported by the Board of Equinox and we have various deal productions. So cash offer, which utilizes our balance sheet and as such, we are not issuing any common shares. And for Barrick, we see this as a unique opportunity to acquire a large copper producer, the Lumwana mine and a near-producing asset, Jabal Sayid. The Lumwana copper mine is a high-quality, long-life producing copper mine with significant expansion potential and a likelihood of substantial resource growth. It's located in Zambia, which provides us with a major presence in one of the most prospective copper regions in the world. This next slide gives you a brief overview of Equinox. It highlights the 100% Lumwana mine. It began operations in 2008. Lumwana produced 323 million pounds of copper in 2010 but we believe it has a potential to expand this production level to over 550 million pounds. Jabal Sayid is currently under construction and is expected to produce over 100 million pounds beginning in late 2012. Copper reserves total 5.7 billion pounds and total inferred copper resources were 5.5 billion pounds. But as I said, the exploration potential is exceptional, the resource base is expected to grow significantly. There are a number of factors which support our investment decision. First, we believe the copper fundamentals are very positive and prices will continue to be well supported for the foreseeable future. But it's really on the supply side where Barrick has good insight into the mine construction environment, particularly in South America and Africa. These 2 regions are projected to account for over 70% of new mine supply in the next 5 years. Our view is that there is a reasonable probability that many of these projects will be delayed due to permitting challenges, competition resources, infrastructure limitation and capital cost increases. The industry is challenged to provide a supplier response in the face of growing demand and we expect this to continue. Current copper price is around $4. What's interesting to note is that the 5-year forward curve for copper right now is at an average of around $4 per pound. Second, as mentioned, Lumwana is a large resource with substantial upside. There's currently 11 billion pounds but we expect this to increase significantly. It also positions us into the highly prospective, under-explored Zambian copper belt. Zambia and Saudi Arabia are both mining-friendly and have attractive country profiles for foreign investment. In addition, there are also regional opportunities. And as I said before, after South America, Zambia is the second most prospective copper region in the world. We'll have a major platform there. Third, we are acquiring a producing asset with expansion potential. This allows us to benefit from today's copper prices and receive earnings and cash flow immediately. The financials of these assets are strong. If you take the 5-year average copper price based on the forward curve so using $4 copper price and assuming production of around 400 million pounds once Jabal Sayid is in production, these assets will generate around $1 billion of EBITDA, and this has the potential to increase over $1.5 billion with the expansion of Lumwana. So given our $8 billion purchase price, this equates to around a 5x to 6x EBITDA multiple. There's a large -- ability to generate a large amount of cash flow, this will be another significant earnings and cash flow generator for our company and will be meaningfully accretive to our overall earnings and cash flow. By utilizing low-cost funding, this investment alone has the potential to increase our overall returns on equity of the company by 200 to 300 basis points from the current 20%. This was a unique opportunity. It's a rare that an asset like this is available. Most major mines are tied up in the portfolios of major mining companies. Also, we were able to work with the company to carry out due diligence and complete a friendly transaction. And finally, it provides further growth for Barrick and does not constrain us from building out our pipeline of gold projects. This actual position builds on our existing copper business, where we currently produce about 300 million pounds from Zaldívar. This will double our production to around 600 million pounds, which would then increase to over 700 million pounds with the completion of Jabal Sayid. Expansion in Lumwana, the potential of doubling of production from Zaldívar and the contribution from Cerro Casale has the potential to increase our overall copper production to about 1 billion pounds. When combined with our growth in gold, production of 9 million ounces, we will have in-hand resources and projects that have the ability to provide significant growth in our production and in our earnings of cash flows. This next slide, this gives you a sense of our revenue mix, pro forma for this transaction. There have been some concerns that have been raised to us about the impact that this would have on the company, and I want to state quite strongly that Barrick is a gold company. That's our core business and we continue to be focused on developing our pipeline of gold projects. When you look at our revenue mix, pro forma of this transaction were 82% gold and 18% copper. And similarly when you look at our reserves, we're 82% gold and 18% copper. And so when you compare us to Newmont, Goldcorp or Newcrest, we are very consistent and in line with our peer group from a revenue mix. One of the questions was, is this transaction going to hurt our multiples? Well, I think it's hard to imagine how somebody would suggest that we are not a gold company and so as such, I don't think our multiples should be impacted. Now with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Jamie to talk a bit more detail about our first quarter results.