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Braskem S.A. (BAK)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 19, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Braskem’s Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2015 Earnings Conference Call. Today with us we have Carlos Fadigas, CEO; Mario Augusto da Silva, CFO; and Pedro Teixeira, IR Controller and Project Finance Director. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded and all participants will be in listen-only mode during the company’s presentation. After Braskem remarks are completed, there will be a question-and-answer session. At that time, further instructions will be given. [Operator Instructions] We have simultaneous webcast that maybe accessed through Braskem’s IR website, www.braskem.com.br/ir. The slide presentation may be downloaded from this website. Please feel free to flip through the slides during the conference call. There will be a replay facility for this call on the website. We remind you that questions which will be answered during the Q&A session maybe posted in advance on the website. Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements are being made under the Safe Harbor of Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1996. Forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Braskem management and on information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they relate to future events and therefore depend on circumstance that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Braskem and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Now, I will turn the conference over to Pedro Teixeira, IR Controller and Project Finance Director. Mr. Teixeira, you may begin your conference.

Pedro Teixeira

Analyst

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for participating in another Braskem earnings conference call. Today, we will be commenting on our results for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2015. We would like to remind you that pursuant to the Federal Brazilian law, the results presented in today’s presentation reflect the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards, in IFRS. The financial information in today’s presentation has been reviewed by independent auditors. Now, let’s go to the next slide where we will begin our comments. On slide 3 we present the main highlights of the fourth quarter of 2015. In Brazil the average utilization rate of our cracker was 83% infected by the incidence in Mauá Petrochemical Complex resulted in the plant being shut down for 39 days. The Brazilian revenue market came to 1.1 million ton 17% less than the fourth quarter of 2014, Braskem [indiscernible] sales forward this trend totaling 751,000 tons. However as we’re studying the shrinkage of the massive market, resin export increased by 5% at the same period reaching to a 189,000 tons. In addition export of the main basic petrochemicals amounted to 342,000 tons, 16% down in the fourth quarter of 2014 mainly as a consequence of the impact of the unscheduled shutdown of Sao Paulo cracker. It is worth mentioning the signing on December 23, 2015 of new five year petrochemical naphtha contract supply with Petrobras. Despite the price being set a 102.1% of the RF, international reference price [indiscernible] that the agreement will play an important role in reducing the substantial uncertainty surrounding the sector burning cracker stoppage at a difficult time for the industry and the Brazilian economic as it rolls. In Brazil, U.S. and European operations the average operational ratio was a 101% in the first quarter of…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Luiz Carvalho from HSBC.

Luiz Carvalho

Analyst

Just a quick follow-up from the previous call, the first question is if you’ve an idea what will be the EBITDA impact on the program stoppage that you forecast to do on the cracker in the second half of this year? And the second one if you can provide us a bit of the update about the class section U.S. I mean I think if you know what's the stage in terms of timeline and when do you expect to have more detail about this process? Thank you.

Carlos Fadigas

Analyst

I can give you the base numbers on the stoppage in by year and then you can try to extrapolate from that the EBITDA impact if you need for the information of help on this extrapolation in this calculation, [indiscernible] Braskem will be more than happy to help but the big numbers are, the quarter has capacity of 2 million tons. There are two ethylene mines there we’re stopping one of them, so approximately 600,000 tons per year, 50,000 per month. It's going to stop for -- let's put it 45 days to -- use your math 75 KT of ethylene. Naturally as it's apparent stoppage you’re going to work to inventory prior to that and then so that we have impact. So I think there is 75 KT compared to the total ethylene and a direct subtraction and the EBITDA on a day to day capacity should be even and naturally you also have to take into consideration that whatever volume one needs, you’re going to probably be taking out of the export of revenues regarded in the next month. So much is more effect when taking into consideration you’re going to be moving up on the worst sales and also given the inventory to accommodate for that. It's taking into consideration our total ethylene capacity, it's something around 2%. So when we have the consolidation it's not how much effect for this stoppage. Regarding the class action, I don’t have all the details. It's going through scores of few to grow, we filed the so-called motion to this and we finding the best interest of Braskem. We show what we believe [indiscernible]. Next we will focus on the balance sheet and it state that if there were improper payments made therefore the balance sheet was not accurate and…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Pedro Medeiros from Citigroup.

Pedro Medeiros

Analyst

I’ve a couple of questions and some follow-ups from the Portuguese version of the call. The first one is if you can comment more on about the results from the cost optimization program launched in 2015 both on a qualitative and quantitative point of view. How has the program delivery in 2015 influenced the regional estimates made for savings by the end of 2016, so is there a chance it would increase those savings or reduce and any color on that side will be positive. The second question is actually more of a confirmation related to fourth quarter results and if you give more color on the contract sign for gasoline sales with Petrobras that you recently signed, was there any gain in the quarter that we would consider one-off when looking at international gasoline prices because of the response rate and if you don’t mind commenting whether there is any opportunity or restriction for the company to use it's infrastructure for liquids to import fuel into the country and benefit from the current spreads to domestic prices. Third question is free cash flow has been quite strong in the last few quarters, and given the company's guidance for 2016 CapEx the startup in Mexico and the comments made in the Portuguese version of the call about the outlook for positive spreads in 2016, I would like to understand how management has been considering the application of the company's cash flow. We saw positive increase in 2015 dividends. You’ve commented that greenfield investments and your analysis that would consume capital in 2016-17 are not that large and can find dedicated competitive funding in market that is -- can you comment on this how do you consider free cash flow allocation from here? Should we expect management to increasingly dedicate time to M&A or to a new investment cycle or potentially even an increase in shareholder capital return. And I just have one last very quick follow-up and confirmation about the Mexico project startup. It might not be important but is there potential contribution from the utility facility in the Mexico project in terms of EBITDA and any specific contribution to be the potentially reported in the first quarter? That’s all. Thanks.

Carlos Fadigas

Analyst

Let me start with the cost optimization program we have and you go back to this numbers, right? It has reached a level of roughly BRL150 million for the year at the end of 2015, it's base is increasing, it has crossed the money phase in 2015 exactly 190 to be precise but what's the difference between the two numbers? We have a series of initiatives, of actions and they are been implemented gradually. Every time you’ve run up those implemented you reach a new level of annualized savings. So the savings for 2015 were BRL109 million. The pace at which we finish 2016 was at a pace of BRL150 million of saving on an annualized basis. We’re expecting to finish the year of 2016 around BRL300 million and if you got information that all of that will show up as fixed cost. Out of that roughly 230 million is associated with fixed cost, the savings of roughly $50 million is investment that will reduce the level of investments in phase one with that, so that, if you can see in that cost will show up later as depreciation but it's money is going to be phased in 2016 and roughly BRL20 million of savings associated with reduction of working capital so that’s how we plan on saving BRL 310 million, BRL320 million in 2016. You reach the BRL400 million on annualized savings only 2017 and the reason why it's going to take so long and that’s a question [Technical Difficulty] and the answer I drew out is that it depends on investments to be made, changes should be made during the stoppage of the crackers to be able to implement some of those initiatives. So we will start saving once the cracker has stopped the change has been made…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Mr. Amen Rodigrez [ph] from GBM.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

In the past questions we have seen remarkable profitability, can you comment on your view to sustainability of this improved margins especially in the next 2 or 3 years? Thank you.

Carlos Fadigas

Analyst

Well I think to comment on the margins we have different products and different segments. We are coming from a year of further margins especially in the second and third quarter of the year. We have some -- we have production in Europe [Technical Difficulty] and therefore better spreads. Our view for spread in 2016 for the yield products that we have polyethylene and polypropylene but that [indiscernible] should be received is that they are going to lower margins in what we have in 2015, nothing significant because we don’t see a lot of new capacity coming to the market and when those markets that come to the market, that’s at least is polypropylene in China, that’s not going to affect the main markets where we have irrelevant polypropylene in the United States. So healthy margins in 2016, a little bit lower than what happened in 2015, so that’s positive. So that is in regard, that’s going to be [Technical Difficulty]. I think that especially polyethylene as you get to the end of '17, that needs to be end of '17 that when we have crackers in the United States starting it's operations before we have is of ethylene capacity, the addition of roughly 2.5 million of ethylene in United States next year and roughly 500 million tons in 2018. So a lot of crackers that are been in the U.S., we’re going to start operations next year so we’re going to a partial effect of additional capacity as they start throughout the second half of the year and then the full effect mainly in 2018 that should bring prices off ethylene and therefore for polyethylene down for the end of 2017 and especially in 2018. So in that regard ethylene in particularly is not in the long term. In…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from [indiscernible].

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

My question relates to the ethylene project in Mexico. Could you give us some guidance on the production volume, sale volumes, EBITDA margins that you expect for the current year and maybe dividend contribution to Braskem for 2016, 2017, what do you expect on that front?

Carlos Fadigas

Analyst

Let me try to address some of your questions without going straight into the numbers because naturally some of these numbers are been tracked by our competitors, and the international markets are very I would say competitive one with large U.S. producers of thin resin into the U.S. but let me share with you some combination that will help you forecast the numbers. First of all U.S. posted it's first quarter of the year reported [ph] plants to the cracker and the polyethylene lines are not running at this point. We do expect to have the cracker and the three polyethylene lines running at some point between now and at the end of this quarter over the next 40 days. From that point on, we are going to try to ramp up production to get some maximum production in the end the complex is capable of producing at cost capacity roughly 1.50 million tons and we hope to reach cash flows to that level production at some point between quarters three and four. So it's hard for me to give you an exact number but if you did regard the first quarter and take into consideration is the second quarter we will be ramping up and true capacity will be reaching at some point between third and fourth quarter it gives you an idea of how much we’re planning to produce. You probably have to take into consideration that we have beat inventory if you were to consider one month inventory of resins that would be roughly 80 KT [Technical Difficulty] to have lower inventories that so from whatever numbers production we get, I’ve to subtract the ones between something between 80 KT and 60 KT that will be needed as inventory to manage sales and so on. We’re targeting to sell mainly in the mid-market they are going to exporting as well. Having said that, I can't go at this point into the expected EBITDA. We don’t provide guidance on EBITDA for Braskem for petrochemical components. At this point the spread between the other markets [Technical Difficulty] but on the other hand the spreads on the polymer from ethylene to polyethylene it's much healthier, so that should help us a good margin over EBITDA this year in 2016. In regarding dividends, the dividend in the initial year they have to work on capital even [indiscernible] and most of the cash generated is going to be used to pay the project funded and actually as you can expect the project ties a lot of the cash flow of this project and we don’t forecast any dividend payments this year. We do forecast [indiscernible] payment but therefore we would contribute to the reduction of other roles -- consolidated Braskem leverage as they produce EBITDA and as they generated and reduce net debt. So that’s what we can share about the Mexican project this year at this point.

Operator

Operator

The Q&A section is finished. I will turn over the company for closing remarks.

Pedro Teixeira

Analyst

Well we would like to thank you for participating in the call. I would like to mention one point that didn’t come up in the conference call but I think it's important information that the fact that Braskem towards -- reaffirm at investment grade level by Standard & Poor's that happened the day before yesterday. We operated this from double digit plus -- we stated BBB- [Technical Difficulty] rating of the year and we believe important part of what has sustained -- the operational results and also the increased cash generation outside Brazil. We have had 42% of our revenues coming from outside of Brazil in 2015. We are going to have slightly more than 50% - 51% of our revenues coming from outside in the year of 2016 as we create production and EBITDA in the United States as we have stock op [ph] of next. So that shows strong cash flow in hard currency outside of the view [Technical Difficulty] one of the very few resin companies that are investment grade by reputed agencies. So it is a handful companies that have two investment grade agencies -- one of that. So having said that [Technical Difficulty] working very hard to increase competitiveness of the current operations we have. As we discussed increased production and find the best market volatility in Brazilian production and we’re going to keep increasing the size of Braskem by investing and so we will be expanding in the U.S. with polypropylene and that’s our commitment to the shareholders. More cash generation from the current operations and with strategy on top of generating more revenue and cash flows helps Braskem to be more resilient cash generation. So thank you again for participating and have a good day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's Braskem's earnings conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time.