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Braskem S.A. (BAK)

Q3 2020 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 12, 2020

$3.44

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Braskem's Third Quarter of 2020 Earnings Conference Call. Today with us, we have Roberto Simoes, CEO of Braskem; Pedro Freitas, Vice President of Finance, Procurement and Corporate Affairs; and Rosana Avolio, Investor Relations Director. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded and all participants will be in listen-only during the company's presentation. After Braskem's remarks are completed, there will be a question-and-answer session. At that time, further instructions will be given. [Operator Instructions] We have simultaneous webcast that may be accessed through Braskem's IR website at www.braskem-ri.com.br and the MZiQ platform, where the slide presentation is available for download. Please feel free to flip through the slides during the conference call. There will be a replay facility for this call on the website. We remind you that questions which will be answered during this Q&A session may be posted in advance on the website. Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements are being made under the Safe Harbor of Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1996. Forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Braskem's management and on information that's currently available for the company. They involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions because they relate to the future events and therefore, depend on the circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general dynamic conditions, industry conditions, and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Braskem and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Now, I will turn the conference over to Rosana Avolio, Investors Relations Director. Ms. Avolio, you may begin your conference.

Rosana Avolio

Analyst

Good afternoon, all. We would like to thank you for joining Braskem earnings conference call. Today, we will present third quarter 2020 results. So, please, let's move to slide number three, in which we will talk about Braskem's sustainability goals disclosed this week. Based on our sustainable development strategy and in line with the sustainable development goals of the United Nations for 2030 and the Paris Agreement on climate change, we recently informed the market our new goals related to mitigate climate change and eliminate plastic waste. Our goal for mitigating climate change are; achieved carbon neutrality by 2050; and provide a 50%reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. Regarding eliminating plastic waste, our goals are expanding the I'm green portfolio aiming to include 300,000 tons of thermalplastic resins and chemicals with recycled content by 2025 and by 2030, 1 million tons of such products; and also by 2030, work to prevent 1.5 million tons of plastic waste from being sent for incineration to landfills or deposit in environment. Moving to slide number four, we will present our strategy to achieve carbon neutrality and also to eliminate plastic waste. Strategic carbon neutrality, the company's strategy will concentrate its actions on three fronts; first, reduction of emissions focusing on energy, efficiency, and increasing the use of renewable energy in current operations, establishing partnerships focused on innovation and technology. Two, offsetting emissions with potential investments in the production of chemicals and polymers from renewable sources; and capturing carbon emissions through research and development for the use of carbon emissions as raw material. Additionally, in the forefront of circular economy, Braskem will continue to pursue its mechanical and chemical recycling projects. With that, the company reaffirms its commitment to sustainable development and its continuous purpose of improving people's life by creating sustainable solutions…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Bruno Montanari from Morgan Stanley. You may proceed.

Bruno Montanari

Analyst

Good afternoon, and thanks for taking my question. I have two questions. First one, I understand it is difficult to estimate the full amount of the Alagoas provision. But how should we think about the timeline to say, now this is over, and there will be no more provisions, and this is how much we're going to spend? And what is also the latest about your insurance coverage for the incident? And the second question is about Mexico. If there are any updates on the discussions with PEMEX about the take-or-pay fines, the potential revision of the ethane purchase contract? And also when we could seethe conclusion for the definitive import solution in Mexico as well? Thank you very much.

Pedro Freitas

Analyst

Hi, Bruno, this is Pedro. It's a pleasure to be with all of you this afternoon to discuss our results for the third quarter. On Alagoas, what we have, and we try to be pretty clear around what we have provisioned and what is still not -- we're still not able to foresee whether there is any additional amount or not is this. And always with the caveat and with the view that it's a geological event. So there are aspects of it, which may be unforeseeable, right? So we are working with the known facts and known expert studies, and that's what we're basing our decisions on. So what I'm going to talk about a little bit is also, I mean, subject to this situation, right? So on -- I mean, you can think about Alagoas as kind of -- there is, broadly, right, the side of it, which is relocation of people. And another side of it, which is the -- what we call the social environmental aspects of it, which include the closing of the mine and other aspects, which I'm going to talk about. So on the relocation of people, we have put together the maps that are published by the Civil Defense, the maps that our own experts have developed and which we received in September and which led to the additional provision that we booked in the third quarter. And then when we look at all the maps, all the risk maps that we have, looking even forward upto three, five years ahead in a prospective way, those maps consider that none of the other actions that we're undertaking in terms of prior stabilization that all of them failed. So the best knowledge that we have today, include a certain area in Alagoas. The…

Fernanda Cunha

Analyst

Thank you Pedro.

Pedro Freitas

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Ben Isaacson from ScotiaBank. Ben, you may proceed.

Ben Isaacson

Analyst

Thank you very much and good to be on this call. And thank you for the very comprehensive overview. I have 3 questions. The first one is, given the provisions that you took in September, do you still expect your leverage to be at/or below 3.5x by the end of 2021? Number two, on PEMEX. If you don't have -- if you don't reach a constructive conclusion, what is the legal threshold? Or how close are they to falling below the 70% threshold? And what happens once they fall below that point? And then my final question is, I've noticed over the last few years, you've been decreasing your naphtha exposure from Petrobras, but it's actually increased this year. What are the reasons, why it's increased? And is that temporary and how should we think about that going forward? Thank you very much.

Pedro Freitas

Analyst

Hi Ben and thank you for the questions. On the leverage, I think everybody saw that our leverage, which was north of 7 turns and net debt-to-EBITDA in the second quarter fell below 5 in the third quarter. So it was a pretty steep de leveraging. And basically because of the recovery in results, right, in the EBITDA, our net debt has been pretty much stable for the past, I would say, many years with a band, but pretty much stable. Looking at the year end, we have been talking to you and telling that we thought it could go down to somewhere around 4.5. Because of this extraordinary performance in the third quarter. We now believe that it could be below 4.5 by the end of this year. And we still have the goal of getting to 3.5 by the end of next year. Of course, any settlement in Alagoas could change that perspective. But right now, this is what we are -- we have as a goal. We have not closed yet our budget for next year because of the high volatility in the markets, we decided to close the budget actually in the beginning of January so that we know how the year end was for 2020. And also, we --I mean, have a closer look and a closer feeling of how the market will perform in the turn of the year, beginning of the year. So that then we can have our budget approved by the Board. So that's going to happen at the beginning of next year. Next year, we are going to have some benefits or some, I would say, tailwinds helping us to improve our results. I'd like to mention, I mean, the new plant that started up in the U.S., the delta…

Ben Isaacson

Analyst

If I could just ask a very quick follow-up. When you think about the PEMEX, there's two issues. One is you are forced to run at a lower operating rate. The other is, that you're making less margin per ton. Can you provide some colour of the magnitude of the impact on a margin per ton basis? How much are you losing by importing ethane from the U.S. Gulf versus from PEMEX?

Pedro Freitas

Analyst

Yes. So, the import cost is around $200 per ton. I mean, full cost, fully landed. So that's about the margin that we're losing.

Ben Isaacson

Analyst

That's great. Thank you very much.

Pedro Freitas

Analyst

Just an additional comment Ben that I think is relevant. With the additional solutions, step 2 and step 3 that I mentioned, I mean the step 2 or fast track and then the pipeline, those costs should be lower going forward, because, I mean, we would be able to bring larger ships, so reducing shipping costs in the first step. In the second step, I mean, it's a pipeline, so it's much lower cost in running trucks, which is what we're doing today.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Ricardo Rezende from JPMorgan. Ricardo, you may proceed.

Ricardo Rezende

Analyst

Hi, Pedro. Hi, Rosana. Thanks for taking my question. So the first one, just on free cash flow. I remember that earlier this year, we talked about the free cash flow for the year, and we even discussed if it was going to be possible to have breakeven for the year. How do you see cash flow on the fourth quarter? And also how do you see the first quarter given that there's seasonality, but at the same time, we're seeing this improvement on the demand side? And then the second question is on your ESG initiatives. Congrats on that announcement. My question is, is there any relevant CapEx involved on the implementation of these ESG initiatives? Thank you.

Pedro Freitas

Analyst

Ricardo, thank you for the questions. On free cash flow for the fourth quarter, we are seeing still in October. We have seen good market performance. Results were better than we were anticipating for October. And looking at the end of the year, I mean we see some of our clients still in a high demand mode. We see also some sectors that have given people kind of their holidays, there -- in Brazil, it's usual to have the year-end collective holidays, right? Some factories shut down and people over Christmas and New Years, they go home. And I mean, a lot of plants are closed even for maybe 15 days sometime. So even Braskem does that with, I would say, the administrative people and even some of the industrial people. So we think that some of those companies will not—they have already given, because of COVID, they have already given their employees, the holidays. So we think that December this year will be atypical in the sense that it could -- we could have a positive surprise in volumes in December higher than what would be usual. Looking at cash flow again for the fourth quarter and then for the year-end, I mean, positive cash flow in the fourth quarter for the year-end. And looking at the full year, we think that cash flow could be neutral, potentially still positive by the end of the year. We have a much lower amount of interest to pay in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. And third quarter, the interest payments for the bond were really material. Fourth quarter, it should be a much lower amount. And also, I mean, a more stable operating cash flow. We also have resumed imports of naphtha. And as you know, for important…

Ricardo Rezende

Analyst

Okay. Very clear. Thank you so much. Good luck

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Rodrigo Almeida from Santander. Please you may proceed.

Rodrigo Almeida

Analyst

Hi, Pedro, thank you for the call. I have two questions here from my side. The first one is related to the PP plant in the U.S., given the solid start and the good demand over there. Do you foresee any faster ramp-up for the plant, or is it more of an operating side? Any colour that you could give us on the more, say, medium-term ramp-up of the plant would be nice to understand. And the second question is related to the working capital initiative that you mentioned. I understand that increasing the naphtha imports will help working capital dynamics, but what else could you do on the working capital front to benefit from that a little bit more. Thank you very much.

Pedro Freitas

Analyst

Hi, Rodrigo, on the PP plant, I mean, it reached a 95%utilization rate so -- already. So it's -- I mean, I would say, it has ramped up with, I would say, a simpler, amore unsophisticated portfolio of products. So now the effort is to specify in the plant additional grades that have not been produced yet, and we are moving forward with that. One thing that is helping is that the recovery of the market in the U.S. has led some clients to fuel some restriction in supply from some of our competitors, also given the hurricanes that occurred in the Gulf Coast. So some clients have been reaching out to us, looking to specify and amalgamate the product from the new plant faster than we expected. So that could also help us on the market side. But again, it's already running pretty well. In terms of working capital just a few comments, right? If we break down our working capital, you can look at accounts receivable with the recovery in the market and also the moving exchange rates. The accounts receivable in reais are higher now. And that's natural that also -- that actually reflects a good moment in the business. And we have a very, I would say, thorough credit management of our client exposures. It is expected that there would be an increase in accounts receivable because of the recovery in the market and also exchange rates. Inventories have also gone up a little bit because of exchange rate. But we are working on several digital tools to manage inventories better. So there are several initiatives in our digital center that are geared towards reducing working capital. And especially inventories, we are looking at the way that we are doing our forecasting process. We are implementing…

Rodrigo Almeida

Analyst

Perfect. Thank you very much for the complete answer.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is coming from Luiz Carvalho from UBS. Please Luiz, you may proceed.

Luiz Carvalho

Analyst

Hi, Rosana, hi Pedro, thanks for taking the questions. I have basically two quick questions here. You say -- I know that you don't give guidance for the following year. But of your best knowledge, looking to the spreads and utilization capacity, what do you think that to the next couple of quarters would look like in terms of when you compare to the results that you just presented in the third quarter, and of course, comparing the taking consideration the seasonality of the past quarter, right? And the second question, it's mostly a follow-upon -- any update on the controlling shareholder, potential divestments, anything that you have been consulted with that you can share with us? Thank you.

Pedro Freitas

Analyst

Hi Luis, thank you. I mean, looking at the basics of the business, I would say that utilization should be higher than this year, I mean, because of COVID and the hit that we had in the second quarter. So -- and we do expect, I mean, higher demand next year compared to this year just by market growth everywhere. So, in terms of volumes, we think it could be a better year next year. The second main aspect of our business is -- are the spreads, right? And there, I think the signals are still a little bit mixed. On the one hand, we have demand growth. So, that helps with higher spreads. But on the other hand, we had several players and suppliers that, this year, they have stopped. Some have not come back yet. So, the balance of-- and there are new plants that were delayed from this year to next year, right? So, the balance of supply/demand for next year is still a little bit unclear. So, given the situation, I mean, I don't think spreads next year will be much higher than this year. They could be lower, especially in polyethylene. Polyethylene this year, we had spreads that were much higher than we expected. So I think there may be some reversal in the PP spreads for next year. But when we look at PP and PVC, they are doing pretty well. And I think there its more solid. I mean there is not a lot of new PVC capacity coming online. We're seeing delays of the new your line is now open capacities coming out every quarter. So, I mean to give you an idea of what I said, right? The spread in PP was close to double of what we were expecting. So,…

Luiz Carvalho

Analyst

Okay. It's very clear. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Fernanda Cunha from Citibank. Fernanda, you may proceed.

Fernanda Cunha

Analyst

Hi. Good afternoon everyone. I have a couple of questions on the Mexico project. Can you explain how can we think of margins going forward with your fast track import strategy. It just -- it seems to me slightly compute that this quarter versus second quarter, your margins actually they went down when spreads were significantly higher, and I'm talking against second quarter for this year. So I'm trying to do this reconciliation and how we can think about these margins going forward? And then the second question I have is on the imminent of a second wave of COVID. What lessons can -- have you learned from the first wave? And you think that margins could be better protected from this learning that you had?

Rosana Avolio

Analyst

Hey, Fernanda, it's Rosana. Thanks for the question. About the margins in Mexico, I mean, we have been running with fast track since first quarter, since February. And in terms of margin, there is a decrease actually because we do have additional costs running informed, as Pedro mentioned, but we do sell more, right? And we are talking about a gas cracker in an follow-up or putting PEMEX plus in the fast track solution, is still a great project is to generate good margins, to generate cash flow. So even considering that, considering the fast track solution that we are ramping up is still a very positive project with great margins even in the down cycle.

Fernanda Cunha

Analyst

Yes. No, I agree with you. But I just wanted to understand why these margins dropped like from 54%EBITDA margins in the second quarter to somewhere like 45%. I know there’s an impact from the receivables from PEMEX. But at the same time, ethane did not come down so strongly. So I know revenue --from my math, it should have come down like 9%. It came like 27% down. And so I’m just trying to understand what would be the normalized EBITDA margin?

Rosana Avolio

Analyst

Yes, the margin dropped because we are ramping our fast track, that I just mentioned. But we are talking about 48% EBITDA margin, right? We do not see that in any other company or project in the globe. If we compare, for example, to Brazil, where we have a much more diversified feedstock profile, a lot of products EBITDA margin is 24% this quarter. So even with a drop in Mexico, EBITDA margin that you mentioned and it’s true, because we are ramping up fast track, we're still getting 48%EBITDAmargin, which is great, actually.

Pedro Freitas

Analyst

Yes. Rosana, just let me add another point here that think is relevant, right? If you look at our net revenue or the revenue, it went up by about 10% third quarter versus second quarter. And what happened is that a part of that is that, I mean, if you have, let's say, a margin per ton of $800 per ton, okay? And the price that you're selling at is$1,000, that margin is 50%. But if you have thesame$500 per ton of margin, and you're selling at $1,500 per ton, the margin goes down to 33%. It's still the same $500 per ton. So there is also a dynamic there of increasing PE prices, but the spread has not increased by so much, right? So the evolution of the denominator of the math to get to the EBITDA margin leads you to that. So a part of the explanation also comes from that. This is the fast track that Rosana mentioned.

Fernanda Cunha

Analyst

Sure. So I can say because the discussion offline it’s just, I understand that gross margins did not change. But when you look at EBITDA margins, it did change a lot quarter-over-quarter. So I was just trying to understand what is the -- what's the difference here. But we can discuss this afterwards.

Pedro Freitas

Analyst

Okay. On COVID, just briefly, I mean, what we have -- we have learned, I would say, a lot in the first wave. And we don't know how -- I mean we see the second wave in certain regions. We don't see a second wave, at least so far in other regions like in Brazil. So it's still -- I don't know how the second wave or a potential second wave could hit our markets. But we have learned to turn around our operations pretty quickly. So I mean, changing production schedules to adjust to changes in demand, also logistics. So I think we learned a lot around how to adjust and adapt our operations quickly. And if anything happens in terms of a second wave, I think that would be helpful to us going forward. But again, it's really -- how we will react once things start to hit the market. And we have seen that the way that it happens is different in each region. It's different in each market. So it's really having the agility of answering quickly is more important than, having a very well-established plan. Because, I mean, it's really an uncertain, unknown situation that may occur.

Fernanda Cunha

Analyst

Okay. Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Now I will turn over to the company, for closing remarks.

Pedro Freitas

Analyst

We have Roberto Simoes here with us. So I'll ask Roberto to close.

Roberto Simoes

Analyst

Thank you all, again for joining us, for this call. As we discussed, in the presentation, we had a quarter of very good results. As you saw, the money in all regions is increasing. And as we keep seeing very healthy spread in the international markets, every month. Given that, we present a positive cash flow generation. And in this quarter with a leverage of 4.98% or 4.98 and important reduction from previous quarter leverage of 7.11%, this reduction reinforces our commitment to be reassigned as an investment-grade company. It's also important to highlight that, from a liquidity point of view, we are in a good situation with a longer debt profile, results in ratable maturities in the short and medium-term and a very robust cash position. And finally, I want to reaffirm our commitment to sustainable development, in the announcement that we give regarding our new goals related to mitigate climate change and eliminate plastic waste. We will continue with our strategy around efficiency, and competitiveness, diversification of feedstocks and the geographic diversification that has been leading to significant results for us. So with that, thanks for your -- very much for your participation and looking forward to taking -- talking to you in three months' time, when we release the 2020 annual results.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's Braskem earnings conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time.