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Braskem S.A. (BAK)

Q4 2021 Earnings Call· Thu, Mar 17, 2022

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Transcript

Company

Management

Roberto Simoes – Chief Executive Officer Rosana Avolio – Investor Relations Director Pedro Freitas – Chief Financial Officer Bruno Montanari – Morgan Stanley Unidentified Analyst – Analyst Anne Milne – Bank of America

Operator

Operator

Good morning. Thank you for waiting. Welcome to the conference call of Braskem, to discuss the results related to the Fourth Quarter of 2021. Here with us are Mr. Roberto Simoes, CEO of Braskem, Pedro Freitas, and Rosana Avolio, Investor Relations Director. We'd like to inform that this event is being recorded and that all participants will be in listen-only mode during the conference call. Later on, we will start the Q&A session when further instructions will then be provided. [Operator Instructions] This event is also being broadcast simultaneously over the Internet via webcast and can be accessed at https://www.braskem.com/ri where you can also find the presentation. The selection of the slides will be controlled by you. The audio of this event will be available soon after it's over. We'd like to remind you that the participants of the webcast may record via website questions to Braskem. They will be answered after the conference is over by the IR area of the company. Before moving on, we'd like to clarify that any forward-looking statements that may be made during the conference call as regards the business perspectives of the company, projections, operational, and financial goals are beliefs and premises of the company's management, as well as information currently available to Braskem. Forward-looking statements are no guarantee of performance since they involve risks, uncertainties, and premises. Same-state refer to future events. And these depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Investors and analysts should understand that, general conditions, sector conditions, and other operating factors may have affect to the future performance of Braskem and may lead to results that differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. I would now like to turn the call over to [Indiscernible], Investor Relations Director, who will begin the presentation. You may proceed, ma'am.

Rosana Avolio

Analyst

[Interpreted] Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for participating in Braskem's conference call to present our results for the fourth quarter of 2021 and also for the full year of 2021. Let's go to Slide 3 with Braskem's highlights in the year. In 2021, Braskem delivered important achievements in its financial situation and ESG agenda. Starting with the financial highlights, we reported record high recurring operating result of $5.6 billion and net cash generation of R$10.7 billion. We also returned value for our shareholders delivering the third highest total shareholder return of companies in IBOVESPA and S&P 500 and distributed anticipated dividends in the amount of R$6 billion. Another important development was being upgraded to investment-grade by S&P and Fitch. We continue to maintain a comfortable leverage ratio and the debt maturity profile concentrated in the long term. Another financial highlight was the conclusion of Braskem Idesa's debt refinancing plan which was one of our priorities for the year. On our ESG agenda, a strategic priority for us. We made important advances on all three fronts, environment, social, and governance. On the environmental front, we advanced in our goal of reaching 1 million tons of Green PE production capacity, with the progress achieved on the capacity expansion projects at the green ethylene plant in Triunfo. And with the signing of a memorandum of understanding with SCG Chemicals to perform feasibility studies, to jointly invest in a new green ethylene plant in Thailand. We also signed an MOU with Lummus technology for the joint licensee of green ethylene technology, and on our commitments to circular economy. We started the operation of the mechanical recycling line in partnership with Valoren. On the social front, we implemented a 146 social projects that benefited over 800,000 people globally, and made further progress in…

Question-and-Answer

Analyst

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we're now going to start the Q&A session. [Operator Instructions]. The first question comes from Pedro Soares with BTG Pactual.

Pedro Soares

Analyst

Good morning, Roberto. Good morning, Rosana, everyone, can you guys hear me well?

Pedro Freitas

Analyst

[Interpreted] Yes, we can hear you.

Pedro Soares

Analyst

Well, guys, I have two quick questions. First and most obvious about the spreads. After all, the volatility that we've seen, especially in the oil industry, naphtha stock prices have responded very aggressively to that, which really widened the spreads of the company in Brazil. I understand that much of that can be explained by the resin prices, which you're still not reflecting the potential passing on of that on to consumers. So I wonder if this -- I believe this is new compared to the last year. So if you could explain to us how that will work, especially on the consumer front. And when will that really affect the company's bottom line? Seeing as the company's current inventories are still below the spot once. Now, the second question is about the CapEx guidance. If you could give us a longer-term view after 2022. A while ago, we talked about a maintenance CapEx more than an operating CapEx of about $600 million, and correct me if I'm wrong on that, but it was also underscored that there's not an extraordinary pipeline, especially for the next few years. So my question is, of course, this increase in the operating CapEx in 2022 largely reflects some of the delays in investments, but does it make sense for us to imagine this operating CapEx moving back to levels closer to $600 million or do you guys understand now that it should be something more structural for the moment? That's it for now. Thank you.

Pedro Freitas

Analyst

[Interpreted] Well, Pedro, thank you for your questions. I'd like to say it's a pleasure to be here speaking to all of you. Thank you for being here. We've had extraordinary results in 2021 and we are happy about that. Now on the issue of spreads, there may be two or three points that I'd like to clarify. On a more macro perspective considering last year, this year, and moving forward onto next year, considering a structural supply demand structure within the industry, at this point we see no changes from what we already had seen since the beginning of last year which was we expected spreads to come back to normal, still staying above the historical average. But yes, moving back from what we had in 2021 because of a series of non-recurring events we had in 2021 which led to a decrease in the supply in the international market. We had climate events, we had new bouts of COVID which affected freight prices which also helped lead to that increase in spreads above what we would call a regular level. And this return to normal, this decrease we started seeing at the end of last year was widely expected not only by us but by the industry at large in 2022. And now, as of 2023, we expect to see some recovery already because of the investments that we expected for 2024, 2025, which had not -- have not been announced yet. Either because of COVID or a number of commitments that companies have taken on in terms of carbon reduction or carbon neutrality. And all of that raise the barrier for new investments because you have to invest more in order to fulfill those pledges. So about spreads and this longer term curve, we do not see a return, but in the near-term both because of the war and how much it has impacted fuel -- oil prices spreads are likely to widen. Last week, we saw the spike and spreads are not adjusting yet. This week we saw naphtha coming down and oil prices coming up. So we still expect to see some increased volatility in the near-term, but in the longer run,

Pedro Soares

Analyst

this is something about Russia and Ukraine, with both countries that have a small share of the international market. It doesn't seem as efficient to change the entire landscape we had been expecting. Now, about the passing along of prices, the logic is still the same. We want to pass along international prices. We have a structure for that in terms of resins, and the most basic terms, we want to follow the same international logic. Our policy -- our pricing policy is still the same, and we continue to pass those changes along according as international prices change. Now, one early sign -- it's still early, but everyone knows that China is now experiencing a new round of lockdowns. So we are seeing a rise in freight prices of products coming from China. So that could make things a bit more complicated for them, as was the case last year. But it's still difficult to say to what extent and for how long that will persist. That's hard to say now. And ultimately, you raised the point of how Braskem's results are structured.

Pedro Freitas

Analyst

[Interpreted] Braskem's CPV is calculated using a moving average. So the cost recapturing now in March is the average of Naphtha prices and Feedstock prices from the last few months. So as prices go up, our inventory price levels go down. So part of our operating management policy is to understand that logic and based on that, we adjust our production levels to provide for this carryover of our inventory -- carryover effect on our inventory. This is something we do really well with a positive impact on our bottom line lowering the cost of our inventories on our sales. I may have spoken more than I should, but annually we don't see a significant change because of the current landscape. But considering the uncertainty and volatility, especially in the near-term. And also considering our inventory and production management and procurement management is being revised very short intervals to allow for those market shifts. Now, going back to CapEx. I'd only like to mention something because you mentioned a $600 million operating CapEx. And we would like to shed more light on that. Our operating CapEx includes the maintenance CapEx, but it also includes innovation and technology CapEx. It includes our competitiveness in productivity CapEx. And in previous calls, whenever I say that our maintenance CapEx is between $500 million and $600 million, I'm thinking only of maintenance. So to reconcile those figures, you need to think, oh, I have $600 million in recurring operating CapEx, plus an innovation technology CapEx plus a competitiveness and innovation CapEx. So that requires thinking of those projects which need a positive EPL. So the innovation plus continuity competitiveness, that's around $100 million, $150 million this year, which is why our operating CapEx looks higher. And it is also higher because in the last two years, 2020 and 2021, we invested less in maintenance because of the pandemic.

Pedro Soares

Analyst

We carried forward with everything that was mandatory or that implied higher risks, but there's a lot of things that you could postpone. So if you have a car, you can leave maintenance in your car for later, if you want, unless there's a problem, but over time, those are things you have to do. So these are things we've postponed. And when we look at the program -- the CapEx we've programmed for 2022, we see that within the operating CapEx logic, we are running higher numbers, but you must understand that within those 193, you have 600 which are about maintenance plus 150 which is for this year with competitiveness, innovation, and continuity, and there's another 20% to 2040, which is about catching up with what we failed to do in maintenance over the last few years and maybe even an additional or an extra in competitiveness. That's where the figures come from, but our baseline $600 million in maintenance remained unchanged. Now, I just wanted to add something to Peter's point, there's some volatility in the baseline, naphtha-based CapEx, but I only wanted to stress all the work that we've done in diversifying our raw material base.

Pedro Freitas

Analyst

We have an important base in Mexico and even the business has a dynamic nature. In the United States, we remain with the same baseline. So I wanted -- only wanted to stress that. And the second point I wanted to make is that as oil prices go up we see that basic petrochemicals are also going up which also help us here in Brazil. So raw material sales plus everything else that Pedro commented play into your point.

Pedro Soares

Analyst

Yeah, that was very clear guys. Thank you for your answers.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Gabriel Bahas from Citibank.

Gabriel Barra

Analyst

[Interpreted] Hello, Pedro, Rosana. Thank you for taking my question. I wanted to go over two points. First of all, the dividend issue. You announced an additional sharing of the dividends and looking at the company's cash-generation, I expected a higher number of extra dividend sharing this year. I wanted to hear from you first what was the rationale behind this figure? And considering the war scenario and how it affects that your chemicals and maybe uncertainty may have weighed on this figure. And from your perspective, what would be a higher leverage ratio for next year? What would be the potential in that sense? And the second point looking to the Alagoas issue, there was an increase in your prospect as you mentioned and I wanted to go over three points if we could quickly go over them. First of all, your cash spread from what has already been provisioned in your opinion, what should we expect for 2022 and 2023 in that sense? And the second, how many of those points are still open and is there any question about what you still have to provision for or how much cash you need for the next few years and then I wanted to hear from the cavities you mentioned 35 cavities, 23 or 35 wells and 23 are still being analyzed. And if you could give us a figure by well, just so that we have a sense of the potential risk on the Alagoas front. That's it. Thank you.

Pedro Freitas

Analyst

[Interpreted] Good morning, Gabriel. Thank you for your questions about our dividends. Braskem was a part of the Petrobras sales round roadshow last year and one of the feedbacks we had was that some of the feedback we had was that it would be interesting to at some point have a repurchase program for the company. And because that program also requires some cash set aside for that program, the route would shows would be to what's to provide a slightly lower figure. The low, the highest number, which is about R$2 million. But we decided to suggest a slightly lower figure just so that we have that option to in the future look into a repurchase program considering what we believe is the potential share sales potential for the company. So that's the rationale. And even looking at the ideal leverage ratio, we continue to consider a baseline of about 2.5. The current proposition will not take us to that level of 2.5 in 2022. So there'd be room for something extra, but as the year goes by, we will see how it will be if we could go along with the same plan. But we don't dismiss the idea of maybe along the year have another moment where we will share additional dividends. So I'd say that from the more conceptual standpoint, we have that leverage ratio of 2.5 at best, the highest point. And then in the roadshow with investors, we had this feedback that we should keep dividend payments regular considering that the company's cash generation is very healthy. So it allows for a large CapEx and to provide a return for investors via dividends and then allowing some room for a repurchase program, depending on how our next month within the company unfold. Now, with…

Gabriel Barra

Analyst

[Interpreted] Extremely clear, guys. Thank you. There's just one more thing. How much would it cost for each well to be closed? Would you guys have an estimate about that?

Pedro Freitas

Analyst

[Interpreted] Well, Gabriel, that would depend on each well, because you have different dimensions. So we do not have an average per well. What we have, as you said, was wells that are being monitored, and we have sonar devices that measure the internal cavity. So four wells, and we have nine within the program to be filled with sand. We have the volume metrics and we have that -- those figures that we have here in the presentation. Now, for those that are not being monitored yet, we do not have those figures. We could maybe look into that and maybe bring you something, but we don't really. We have that figure here with us right now because within what we must do, there are wells that we do not need to close. And some of them are being closed with a different technique where you're not filling them with sand and it's actually the more common I think that's better to close them with a lid only.

Gabriel Barra

Analyst

[Interpreted] That was great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Luiz Carvalho with UBS. Q – Luiz Carvalho: [Interpreted] Thank you, Pedro, Rosana, for taking my questions. If you guys go back a little bit and talk about the spread discussion and the CapEx and dividends, and even within the disbursement with the Alagoas program, if we look at 2022, I don't know if the amount spent in Alagoas will be made this year. Your CapEx has increased considerably over the last year. And on the other hand, I'm looking here at Slide 23, seeing the level of spreads above the levels of 2016, 2020. So I believe that will have an impact in cash generation. So I just wanted to try to reconcile all of these factors and how -- to understand how exactly that could impact your dividend payments this year. So if we could maybe round out all of those numbers and tell us how you see your cash generation right now and consequently, your dividend payments in 2022. Now, my second question which is perhaps a more important issue today has to do with the strategic/structural strategy of the company is going to the market including the potential for investment on the market, especially in Slide 24 that you have in the presentation where you, in a way, compare a few of the company's metrics with your North American peers and peers from other emerging markets. And you support your point even by forecasts from us here at the -- at sell side. How do you guys see this process? And I don't know if this is seen as a setback in your minds. The rejection by shareholders that had a share of your preferred shares, what can we expect in terms of timing and what have you heard from shareholders about a potential investment? Is there a -- any sort of strategy in that sense or do you guys see a shift in strategy for essentially not going to the stock market. Again, how do you guys see that move?

Pedro Freitas

Analyst

[Interpreted] Thank you for your question, it's good to speak to you. Well, about your first question relating to our cash generation and so on and so forth. We have a consensual view for our EBITDA this year of about $3 billion. A few -- some see it as a bit higher, seems a bit lower, but I just wanted to remind you that we have Braskem Idesa in Mexico, which follows a different step, so to speak. So we can't -- we need to set them aside. So if we consider our R$15 billion for Brazil a year, the CapEx that we showed you, that is $1.6 billion includes Braskem, which is about $1 billion. So we consider here 1.34 excluding that. So even considering that we have interest and taxes, a historically we have $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion a year. So historically speaking, perhaps about $1.5 billion. But branding all those numbers, Braskem is a company that is already really bearing all of its costs on its own even without those investments. So it's a company that generates cash, even paying all its strategic investments in its portfolio. And with that, we do see some room even from a cash standpoint. And another figure that's important, it's our accounting figure. In the accounting space we see that we do have a positive net profit and a significant one at that. I have something to say about our net profit and Braskem, which is whenever the domestic currency loses value, our net debt is ultimately affected negatively. But whenever the currency gains value, we have a positive effect. So if the Brazilian Real continues to gain value, we may even see higher net profit through this year. And from the leverage ratio standpoint, we should mention our prospect for the end of the year, which is still below two, even considering a reduced EBITDA with dividend payments and all of that. So again, we see room to pay dividends. Obviously, we have some short-term volatility. We have to see how the year will develop, but as I said in the previous question, we may even have a repurchase program in the near future. So I think we do have some room and also the ambition to continue to give back and return capital to our investors.

LuizCarvalho

Analyst

[Interpreted] I just have one more question about this figure, $3 billion for this year. With all respect to your consensus, we fear something closer to 2.8 or 2.9, maybe more closer to the reality. As your visibility improves, do you believe it's closer to three or 3.5.

Pedro Freitas

Analyst

[Interpreted] Well, we're not allowed to give guidance, so I can't give you a precise answer as what you're asking, but even what you're offering 2.8 2.9, you will see a positive result. The important point here is that Braskem is generating positive cash. Regardless of everything that's happening, we still are creating positive cash. We have a good cash position, we have a good debt situation. So in the accounting space, that cash will turn into dividends overtime. I think that's the main takeaway message here. Now, moving on to your other question with our relationship to Novo Mercado. We're still working on what we have to work. I think the main aspect, we're in discussion now with shareholders or changes to our bylaws they also need to close the shareholders agreement amongst them that's something else there in discussion now. So we are still working with that guidance following the strategy that the two shareholders, Novonor and Petrobras communicated to us that they would sell they preferential shares and then other shares as well. So the strategy we're working with is still the same. There's obviously the market window. The operation in January was canceled because of the state of the market. And even though there was demand, the level of prices was not in line with expected. So the offering was slashed. But we are still working on going back to the market. But naturally, that would depend on the state of the market. According to those specific issues that you mentioned, that's true, there was no approval from shareholders in the company is looking at alternatives, but we do not believe this will become a roadblock that's impossible to circumvent. We already have alternatives to overcome that snag. And obviously, there's the timing with regard to the shareholders agreement and the bylaws, but we're still working with those numbers in the first half and with the idea of migrating to Novo Mercado.

Luiz Carvalho

Analyst

[Interpreted] That's perfect. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Bruno Montanari with Morgan Stanley.

Bruno Montanari

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

[Interpreted] Good afternoon, guys. Thank you for taking my questions. I wanted to follow up on two questions. I know this is a small issue, but I wanted to talk about the P&D's. It's more of a curiosity. These are very negligible shares, so to speak. So what I'm curious about is, what do you believe led to them being rejected in Novo Mercado and considering those alternatives you mentioned, is there any forced conversion in your migration to Novo Mercado and how are you looking into improving governance for that? And my second question is about your prospects for profitability in Europe versus the United States, considering the spike in fuel prices in the area. And I also wanted to know whether you need to reduce your cash-generation because of the high costs -- the high energy costs in Europe. And another question about working capital, in 2020 and 2021, we saw just over R$10 million being accumulated in working capital. So should we expect a large sum of that coming back to the company in a more evident way this year, maybe even contributing to your firepower to fund slightly more robust dividend sharing? Thank you.

Pedro Freitas

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

[Interpreted] Thank you for your question. Well, about the P&Bs our reading here, or our understanding -- well, let me be more straightforward. The exchange deal was to have to change the two P&B shares to one P&A type share. And we believe that the P&B shareholders saw that it's something that didn't make sense for them. That's how we see that. And we follow what's in our bylaws. But ultimately they didn't approve that. The rationale was not made clear during the general assembly, there was only the vote on the ballots in the sense of not approving that, not approving the plan. Now, a forceful conversion I don't think is a possibility. I don't think the law would allow that. But we see alternatives that would actually allow us to migrate to Novo Mercado of our shares. So once again, this is something we can already see. And we have few devices that we could turn to make that possible. Now about our profitability in the U.S. and Europe and our capacity use in terms of costs; first of all, yes, granted as you said, our cost in Europe is now being impacted and we have a slightly longer-term prospect of more uncertainty but our position in Europe is not as material. We have just over 500 tons of polypropylene in Germany and our European sales amount to about 1.3 million, maybe slightly more in metric tons. So what comes from South America -- or from North America is even larger than the local production. And the rising fuel costs to enable our production in Europe would naturally lead to a rise in prices to offset those costs or otherwise, local producers will not produce. So what we see is if, well, on the one hand, prices really…

Rosana Avolio

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

In relation to 2021, Bruno, and its stock, if you go back to 2020, we had the second half of the year because demand was much higher than expected. So we closed 2021 with the stock at the lower level. So there was a record position of would be the average stock level of the company because of the high demand at the end of 2020. So we had an effect on the price, but also as a result of the re-composition of the stock.

Bruno Montanari

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

[Interpreted] Thank you, Pedro. Thank you, Rosana.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Barbara [Indiscernible] JPMorgan.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

[Interpreted] Good morning, Pedro, Rosana. Thank you very much for taking our questions. We have -- I have two questions. One in relation to the capital structure. It's clear that the purpose of the company is to maintain the leverage within the levels in order to maintain the proper rating. I would like you to clarify how you see the minimum cash, what would be the minimum level that would be comfortable for the company in the medium and long terms so that you can maintain this level in cash and some expectation in relation to liability management to this year and next year as well? My second question is in relation to the terminal of imports in Mexico. It's heard that there's an expectation to build in the second half according to the release. I would like to know how is the progress, how are the licenses going and the partners and how are you looking at the funding considering every producers to be onboard with you? Thank you.

Pedro Freitas

Analyst

[Interpreted] Well, thank you, Barbara, for your question. Now, about our cash position and our debt position. We have a very clear goal. We want to sustain our investment-grade -- actually recover with Moody's, that's one of our targets for this year. And as you can see on slide 16 of our presentation, our cash position is $1.5 billion plus the revolving credit facility, which we renewed last year, that gives us a very wide liquidity cushion. Now, our operating cash is -- and what we need to operate is less than $800 million in cash position. That's essentially what we need to operate efficiently. If we consider some fiscal inefficiency, we can even improve that and we do not have any maturity for the next few months. The closest one is 2024. So we've been monitoring the market and we have a very conservative cash policy, which is to keep it at $1.5 billion. And we are -- in keeping with that our cash position is actually larger than that in the first few months of the year. But our stands -- our attitude, is to always monitor the markets. You manage a reliability, but if we're do that, we will go for that 2024 figure. There's no short-term prospect is more of the idea to access the market whenever there is liquidity or when Braskem has the ability to go into a transaction that will be positive for the company. But again, we are in no rush. We do not have that pressure currently, and our idea is to always keep our debt profile considering a longer debt maturity. And that's what we plan to continue to do. Now, about the Mexico issue, first of all, at the end of last year, the Board approved the investment itself,…

Rosana Avolio

Analyst

[Interpreted] This is because as this terminal, as allows for the importation capacity higher than what we have in the plans. There is a strategic plan to expand best can Idesa, to capture of the margins and everything. It's very competitive project that we have, in addition to the terminal and all the context that's but just quite by Pedro. We have in the agenda to have an expansion that we will have this nation for the cash generated.

Pedro Freitas

Analyst

[Interpreted] I just wanted to reinforce another point. In December, Braskem Idesa paid it's nearly $400 million dividend and we expect Braskem Idesa to continue to pay -- Braskem to continue to return those investments over the next few years.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

[Interpreted] Okay. It's very clear. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will be an English and comes from Anne Milne Bank of America.

Anne Milne

Analyst

[Interpreted] Good morning or good afternoon. Thank you very much for the call and congratulations on the results in '21 and the return to investment-grade. Several of my questions have been answered, but one, I just I have two. One is very small and it's just going back to your Algoas figures for 2021. I see that you have just one item which is this provision complement for R$1.34 billion. Is this a new addition to your provisions or is it one that was previously expected? I know you explained earlier that the total amount is estimated at about R$12 billion. I just wanted to see if this was something new and if you will have additional items will add in 2022 or in the future that you currently know about, not ones that you don't know about at the moment. That's the first question and the second question is just really an ESG related question. It's regarding your greenhouse gas emissions targets for 2030, which is a reduction of scope 1 and 2, and I know you have that in the same box you have your expansion of your Green PE production. So I guess I'm wondering on the Green PE production, will you use that to substitute for traditional PE Production? And that's how you -- that will be one of the mechanisms or the main mechanism for reducing our emissions, or will it be a series of other measures that I know you're looking at many projects right now that will lead to that 15% reduction. Thank you.

Pedro Freitas

Analyst

[Interpreted] Hello, and thank you for your questions. It's great to hear from you. About Alagoas, the R$1.34 million that you mentioned, that has already been provisioned for, so it is within the R$7.7 billion that we have for December -- from December 2021. And in several lines of our provision, this was the largest which came from the well closing program. That was the highest sum, the highest amount, but there were adjustments in a number of lines of our provision and that happens every six months. And those more material changes that occurred late last year were because of how we advanced in modeling geomechanically the earth. And also we had adjustments in other amounts within the agreement. So there was an inflation-related adjustment and as we invest those sums, those adjustments will be smaller and smaller. So there's nothing new really. It's just about more clarity about the values in our provision. And as I mentioned in another answer, we are a lot more confident about those figures because of the progress we've had in our disbursements and how the case has evolved and also the solidity of the supplementary studies that we've received over the past few months. So obviously, as I said, this is not a done deal, a 100%, but we are seeing no item here that could lead to a material adjustment in our provision. And just to stress what you mentioned, yes, that is within those $7.7 billion. We have no other figure that has remained undisclosed that we expect to fall within our provision for Alagoas. Now, about your ESG question. First of all, our 15% decrease forecast to 1.2 greenhouse gases for 2030, does not include this advanced in green polyethylene. That's scope number three. So our target for 2030 does not include Green PE as an alternative or an action toward reducing the emissions. The actions or the steps we're taking are precisely in reducing our current emissions in the energy sources that we purchase from. We are seeking renewable sources, as we've done now over the past three or four years. We've been signing different energy purchase agreements with wind power contracts, and sun power contracts, such as what we had at the end of last year. So what we have as part of our 20-30 goals falls mostly within energy purchases and also reducing our internal emissions as well.

Anne Milne

Analyst

[Interpreted] Very helpful. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We conclude now the Q&A session. We would like to turn the call over to the final considerations. You may proceed.

Roberto Simoes

Analyst

Hello, this is Roberto Simoes, it's a pleasure to be here with all of you. I would like to thank everyone for joining our earnings call. This was a fantastic year for the company, and we're happy to share all of our accomplishments with you. We've had opportunities and challenges, but there was also -- there were also very important figures. Our recurrent issues -- recurrent results were very important and we took very important steps to consolidate our leadership position within this, which is now a very challenging scenario in our low carbon economy efforts. With that, I'd like to say that we're still committed to our capital allocation focusing on value generation for all our shareholders. And the allocation of our capital will be mostly first in reducing our gross capital and then in boosting our dividend sharing. We had the opportunity to talk a lot today not only about why we have the level of dividends we have right now, but also talking about our very positive prospects to continue to share dividends in 2022. And then the investments we had the opportunity to discuss more in-depth, our strategic investments and also those that are necessary to maintain Braskem's operations on the healthiest levels. Further, about the goals that were set for this year and which has been widely addressed and discussed, it's important to punctuate some of the very important steps or the headwind that we've made. As Pedro just said, we essentially reached 97% of the real estate or the properties that have to be relocated. About Mexico, we always say that this is a huge case study. The situation in Mexico used to be really complex. And I think we were able to reverse 360 degrees. It is now a solid company with a completely redesigned debt payment profile the ability to provide to Pemex, and with a very significant prospects for the new terminal that's underway. And the third point, our ESG commitments, which have been disclosed widely as well. and the new Green PE plant and also mechanical recycling plant in Sao Paulo and also the commitments we've made which -- many of which will materialize in 2022 in Brazil, but not only in Brazil. And despite the volatility we currently see in the international scenario, by virtue of the conflict in Ukraine, the focus is still the same in the company especially to provide dividends to the company and to focus on our ESG plans and recycling most importantly. We also took the R$1.35 million investment that we've already taken to the general assembly. So once again, I'd like to thank you for joining us and I hope to see you in a few weeks when we will be disclosing the earnings results from 20 -- for Q1 2022. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Conference call at Braskem has come to an end. We would like to thank everybody for taking part in it. And I thank you very much for using Chorus Call.