Earnings Labs

BlackBerry Limited (BB)

Q4 2009 Earnings Call· Thu, Apr 2, 2009

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Research In Motion fourth quarter fiscal year end 2009 results conference call. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the conference over to Edel Ebbs, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Edel Ebbs

Management

Thank you. With me on the call today is Jim Balsillie, RIM's Co-CEO, and Brian Bidulka, RIM's Chief Accounting Officer. After I read the required forward-looking statements disclaimer, Jim will provide a business and strategic update. Brian will then review third quarter results, and I will discuss our outlook for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009. We will then open the call up for questions. I would like to note that this call is available to the general public via call-in number and webcast. A replay of the webcast will also be available on the RIM.com website. We plan to wrap up the call before 6:00 p.m. Eastern this evening. Some of the statements we will be making today constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and applicable Canadian securities laws. These include statements about our expectations and estimates with respect to revenue, gross margin, operating expenses, capex, depreciation and amortization, investment income, earnings, channel inventory, seasonality, ASPs and foreign exchange related matters for Q1 and beyond, our expectations regarding RIM's near- and long-term tax rates, as well as the effect changes to Canadian tax laws, our estimates of the number of net subscriber account additions and other non-financial estimates, our efforts to manage operating expenses and reduce costs, our product development initiatives and timing, developments relating to our carrier partners, and other statements regarding our plans and objectives. We will indicate forward-looking statements by using words such as expect, plan, anticipate, estimate, may, will, should, forecast, intend, believe, continue, and similar expressions. All forward-looking statements reflect our current views with respect to future events and are subject to risks and uncertainties in assumptions we have made. Many factors could cause our actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from those expressed or implied by our forward-looking statements, including risks related to the uncertainty of general economic conditions, risks relating to intellectual property, our ability to enhance our current products and develop and bring to market new products and services in a timely manner, our reliance on carrier partners, the efficient and uninterrupted operation of RIM's network operation centers, the occurrence or perception of a breach of RIM's security measures, our reliance on suppliers and third-party manufacturers, risks associated with our expanding foreign operations, foreign exchange risks, our ability to effectively manage our growth, risks relating to competition, and other factors set forth in the Risk Factors and MD&A sections in RIM's filings with the SEC and Canadian securities regulators. We base our forward-looking statements on information currently available to us and we do not assume any obligation to update them except as required by law. I will now turn the call over to Jim.

James L. Balsillie

Management

We are pleased to end the fourth quarter and fiscal year with revenue subscriber account additions and shipments all up more than 80% from last year. RIM launched a record number of new products during the year and the acceptance of these products outpaced our expectations and led to continued market share growth and record financial results. The number of devices shipped in the year almost doubled to 26.0 million and there are now over 25.0 million BlackBerry subscriber accounts. Demand for BlackBerry products and services reached an unprecedented level in Q4 with net subscriber account additions far exceeding our forecast. Approximately 3.9 million BlackBerry Net subscriber accounts were added in the quarter, up over 50% from Q3 and approximately 35% higher than we anticipated back in December. As we mentioned on the last call, the strength of the BlackBerry Net subscriber account additions in December was unprecedented, with many carriers hitting their highest level of Net activations ever and with channel and marketing support for BlackBerry products at an all-time high. Greater than expected momentum following the holiday buying season, a continued positive reception of new products that were launched in Q3 and Q4, and a breadth of carrier promotions such as the Verizon Buy-One-Get-One program that began the latter part of the quarter, drove this outperformance. Both North America and international results outpaced our forecast and about one-third of BlackBerry subscriber account base continues to be outside of North America. We saw double-digit subscriber growth in the enterprise market this quarter and the non-enterprise market drove exceptional results given the typical holiday seasonality and the nature of carrier promotions in the quarter. Approximately 70% of net new subscriber accounts came from non-enterprise and these customers now represent approximately half of the total BlackBerry subscriber account base. As we…

Brian Bidulka

Management

Revenue for the fourth quarter ended February 28, 2009, was $3.46 billion, up 24% from $2.78 billion in the previous quarter. This is at the high end of our December guidance range and slightly higher than our February 11th update due to higher shipments in the latter part of the quarter. Revenue for the fiscal year was approximately $11.0 billion, an increase of 84% over the $6.0 billion in the previous year. Hand-held devices represented $2.88 billion, or 83% of RIM’s revenue during the quarter, up from $2.25 billion, or 81% of the previous quarter. Total devices shipped in the quarter of approximately 7.8 million were up from 6.7 million in the prior quarter. approximately 7.3 million new devices were activated in Q4, either for new customers or for replacements and upgrades, not including phone-only sales. Forward weeks of channel inventory at the end of Q4 were down substantially from Q3 and we expect weeks of channel inventory at the end of Q1 to be slightly lower than Q4 levels. Device ASPs in the quarter were approximately $370, in line with guidance and higher than Q3 due to shifts in product mix. Service revenue was $415.0 million at 12% of revenue for the quarter, up $54.0 million from Q3. Monthly RPU declined slightly from the prior quarter as the percentage of non-enterprise subscriber accounts grew. Software revenue was $59.0 million, or 2% of revenue. Other revenue, including non-warranty repairs and accessories was $106.0 million at 3% of revenue. Gross margin for the fourth quarter was 40%, in line with the update we provided on February 11th. This was at the lower end of the range we guided in December due to lower-margin products making up a greater percentage of shipments in the quarter. Operating expenses increased by 3% over Q3,…

Edel Ebbs

Management

Before I discuss our outlook for Q1, I would like to remind everyone that these forward-looking statements reflect management’s best current estimates and should be taken in the context of the risk factors listed at the beginning of the call and disclosed in our public filings. We are forecasting revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2010 to be similar to Q4, in a range of $3.3 billion to $3.5 billion with units shipped similar to Q4 levels between 7.5 million and 8.0 million. As Jim mentioned, BlackBerry is enjoying the highest levels of sell through and net subscriber account additions in our history. The current uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment is leading many of our carrier partners to be more conservative than normal, leading to lower levels of inventory being held in the channels. This, when coupled with the fact that there are fewer new launches happening this quarter with their associated channel fill, the rate of unit shipments has remained constant in Q1 versus Q4. We once again have a high level of orders already booked for the first quarter, giving us confidence in our forecasted unit shipments. We expect ASP for the first quarter of approximately $350. This is lower than in the fourth quarter primarily due to product mix with lower ASP products becoming a larger percentage of shipments. Software revenue in Q1 is expected to be similar to Q4 levels. We are targeting net subscriber account additions for Q1 in the range of 3.7 million to 3.9 million. We are providing a range rather than an approximate number due to increased complexity in forecasting as the number of BlackBerry distribution channels expand and the proportion of non-enterprise subscribers grown. Given that an increasing percentage of net new subscriber account additions are coming from non-enterprise customers,…

James L. Balsillie

Management

We are pleased with the growth we have shown in fiscal 2009 and the strong momentum we will see heading into the new fiscal year. With net subscriber base over 25.0 million and continued strong momentum in the number of new customers coming to BlackBerry, we are looking forward to the execution of our plans for the year and continuing profitability to profitably grow our market share. This concludes our formal comments and we would like to open the call up for questions. To allow as many people as possible to participate, please limit yourself to one question per person. We plan to end the call today by approximately 6:00 p.m.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Simona Jankowski - Goldman Sachs.

Simona Jankowski - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

Just a couple of follow-ups on your gross margin guidance. Number one, can you give us a rough, quantitative split up of the contribution of the various income components you talked about to that guidance. In other words, the mix in the cost improvements and I don’t know if there’s any rebates or FX elements of that as well. And then secondly, what do you view as your normalized gross margins? Is it this level or do you see any further upside or downside as you go into the second half of the year.

Edel Ebbs

Management

In terms of what drove the improvements, the biggest piece of that would be cost savings on the build and materials for hardware. Mix would then be the secondary factor there. Foreign exchange is not a big piece of it. In terms of a normalized run rate, it’s a really difficult question for us to answer right now. I mean, it’s really hard to have a lot of visibility out more than a couple of quarters. So we are giving you our best kind of guess that we have today in what we said in our prepared remarks.

Simona Jankowski - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

As a quick follow-up to that, you did mention that you’re going to have a number of launches in the second half of the year. If we were just to isolate the impact of those, would they have, all else being equal, an upward or a downward impact on margin?

Edel Ebbs

Management

Again, it’s a tough one to answer. It really depends on do they launch on the schedule that we’re planning to launch them on today or what kind of cuddle with some old products to new products happen. So again, when I talk about lack of visibility, it’s just difficult to map well how some of those things are going to play out in the second half of the year.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Mike Abramsky - RBC Capital Markets.

Mike Abramsky - RBC Capital Markets

Analyst

Originally you had talked about a land grab and I’m just wondering what inning you think you think we’re sort of in now with regard to that? Do you see this quarter’s results as an example and your guidance of playing that through? And on your forward-marching guidance, are you still kind of planning to introduce, or do you feel you need to introduce lower-priced devices, or accept maybe lower subsidies from carriers in order to sustain the land grab strategy?

James L. Balsillie

Management

Those are good questions. I think when you talk the gross margin, the most difficult aspect of gross margin really right now is turbulence in currency swings around the world. You just don’t plan on European currencies dropping 20% to 30% within a quarter. Just at the same time you’re accelerating your business. So I think that’s really sort of an external macroeconomic factor that we didn’t foresee when we were on the call just before Christmas that’s really there. I think the land grab is still there. What we found is our role is definitely as a standard element and the B2B is really there and that’s definitely solidified. But what we’re trying to do is create more and more value propositions to widely deploy them throughout organizations, especially with unified communications and the mobile office and these kinds of strategies. And that’s why you’ve seen a lot of activity with us in unified communications partnerships recently. So the B2B is still—I would put that in a sort of deeper, deeper penetration but not really a land grab, but it’s a very strategic and critical important growth business. Definitely there is an enormous transition happening in the B2C, so I think we’re still in early innings. If I had to give it an inning, I would say two down in the second inning. So we’re not quite done the second inning but we’re pretty close. But this is the smartphone and the connected appliance is one of the few strong sectors in the B2C. In the economy out there, we think it’s the new kind of consumption, the new kind of stimulus, the new kind of innovation, where new kind of jobs are going to come from. So it’s a lot of responsibility on the sector. It’s about tomorrow’s kinds of things and this where a lot of innovation and consumption is. So for us, and we talked a little about some value added services before. I think you’ve seen the app store, I think you’ve seen some of our deals, like Ticket Master and more to come, and you have some of the search deals. And there’s a lot more to come in that area. That’s more active than people realize. So I think the mix is going to shift. Gross margin is a function of a lot of factors at play, cost and working down the [bombs] but deeper penetration and currency swing, so it’s still a land grab and there’s still lots of variabilities and turbulence but I think we’re navigating it well and we’re well-positioned and it’s very valuable land. Benefits users, benefits developers, and really benefits carriers. So that’s kind of where we are.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Deepak Chopra - Genuity Capital Markets.

Deepak Chopra - Genuity Capital Markets

Analyst

In terms of the pricing environment, what do you see on that front and do you think it will get any more aggressive than what we saw in the second half of last year? And in terms of replacements, I was wondering if you can provide a bit of commentary on that front in terms of it seems like things continue—people continue to upgrade more quickly than anticipated and what your thoughts are on the overall economy weakness and so on.

James L. Balsillie

Management

It’s a good question. I think pricing is a function of what’s at play and I think we’re segmenting a lot more. And so there is a lot of segmenting in devices and there’s a lot of segmenting in services. You saw a little bit of that in the Biz and the Biz Light. I think you are going to see some more powerful segmenting and some more powerful options for folks in terms of segmenting. But that’s not just a pure price play, that’s really a cost position play for us. But it’s also important to remember that these are lifestyle devices that people use for a lot of—arguably, a couple of hundred times a day and soon to be more. And so it’s really saving $50 on bomb for something you’re going to use for a couple of years, all day every day, really where people are going to be price cautious. But maybe at a first-time entry point. It’s hard to know. In terms of replacement it’s tough because so many people are coming new to BlackBerry, that we’ve had this surge, not only with replacement cycle but we’ve also had new users and so the character and the nature of those users, we don’t really know, but we know that they’re coming at a higher rate on B2C even though B2B is still growing. But among the things you’re going to see is this whole connected music experience, this social networking, this e-commerce. And you’re going to see a lot happening in sort of mobile video and mobile TV and being able to stream and cache and all that. So will that drive, sort of, people wanting higher-end devices? And we’ve got some—you have to really support the strong and multi-media. So there are just so…

Deepak Chopra - Genuity Capital Markets

Analyst

On the inventory, how long can the carriers stay at these levels? It seems like at a certain point, if the demand stays this strong, they’re just going to have go a bit higher at some point in the summer.

James L. Balsillie

Management

Yes, I mean this is an active part. I mean, I know they’re going to cash manage, but they are very well aware of how profitable BlackBerry is for the business and they’re very well aware of how strategically aligned we are with them, both current and long term. And they are very well aware of how much they’re growing with us. And that’s evident. So this goes in the category of penny-wise, pound-foolish to really squeeze the channels. Because your inventory disperses a little bit more when you got much more indirect and you go much more B2C and much more retail. And people are showing that if the item is in the store they will buy it a lot more than if it’s not. And just cut over to the B2C and be the strategic platform and all that kind of stuff, super strategic, super critical to a carrier. So, this is an active part of management. But a big part of our job is to work carefully with carriers to synthesize strategy because if they just think in isolation, “I need the lowest CPGA possible. I need to cut inventory if possible.” That may be at the expense of super high gross, super profitable high long-term value customers. So it becomes about integrating strategic things with them. And a big part of our life is not only that, but new channel strategies, new channel training. Also new care strategies with these new complex services and so on. So these kind of operational and strategical elements of relatedness are a big, big part of what we do. Because this is a partnership.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Peter Misek - Canaccord Capital.

Peter Misek - Canaccord Capital

Analyst

Just first a housekeeping, I want to make sure I heard this correctly. Your guidance does to include any channel refill. It includes a draw-down in inventory.

Edel Ebbs

Management

What we said is that we expect forward weeks of channel inventory to get down again a little bit at the end of Q1. So, yes, I would expect that the level would come down slightly.

Peter Misek - Canaccord Capital

Analyst

Just a follow-up, if I could, on that clarification is that we heard from Best Buy that they just started restocking. Has there been any indication of restocking yet, at all, from any carrier? Any movement on that front?

Edel Ebbs

Management

I don’t know the answer to that. I don’t know if Jim has any insight into what’s going on in the channel in terms of our carriers getting closer to restocking.

James L. Balsillie

Management

It’s a big part. What happens is that they get tight and then you get stung, and then the guys who are in charge of sales start squawking because the cash managers are squeezing the revenue generators. It’s penny-wise, pound-foolish and it really shows up. Because what happens is the channel gets really loud when they run out of a hot product. They are not shy about it. It’s different with every situation, but it can’t go—it seems to be righting itself. And again, we have to do buffer stocks and we have to be reactive and we have to manage supply and forecasting and a lot of that stuff gets off-loaded to us and that’s a reality. But there’s a point where it just can’t be off-loaded anymore and so I think they’re really at that point where it’s penny-wide, pound-foolish and they’re going to swing back. Is that going to swing tomorrow? In some respects it is. There are some of them are going to have to take a couple more bumps on situations and miss performing in the channel? Maybe. It’s case by case, almost.

Peter Misek - Canaccord Capital

Analyst

Just a question on you as a platform and the carriers. There was some debate, primarily by some of your competitors, suggesting that—one in particular—that RIM likes to tell Wall Street, and use it as a marketing, that they are the most profitable service or that they consume less band width than everyone else. I’m wondering, it seems that the technical value of the carriers is that your efficiencies get your partners, etc. Can you walk us how some of these carriers are thinking about you as a platform? Has there been any kind of mind set change in the marketing departments? Have we started to see the carriers? Because your performance in the consumer this quarter was very good. Have we started to see any change there in subsidy or allocation, the view of you as a true partner and platform? Has there been a change there?

James L. Balsillie

Management

Our activities have been consistent for decades. Since we’ve been working with the carrier channel. I guess that’s eight years. So we have been consistent. And perception can change and sentiment can change but we are nothing if not consistent. We are a very consistent bunch and very predictable. But perceptions definitely change. I would say the overwhelming majority of carriers see us very strategically and absolutely work with us. And I think that’s why. When they really see the profitability. So if a competitor says we’re really profitable for the carrier, I should thank them for the marketing help. If they say we’re really efficient on the network with scarce capacity, again, I should buy dinner for the marketing help because those are absolute truths. To market that you are most of the network consumption of a carrier I don’t think is a very good marketing plan. Because what you’re seeing is, in this capex environment, when there is scarcity—when you have call performance issues, most of the time it’s a capacity issue. And that’s what happens. You just get stung on capacity. So, you’re running a 5kbps voice stop and somebody’s trying to stream a TV show for a 100 kbps or a 80 kbps, I mean, you’re taking away 10 to 20 voice calls of capacity. So with the contention comes congest and all this kind of stuff. So if you can compress and you can script and you can buffer and you can side load, and all this kind of stuff, you know, you’re rationing capacity. And plus, if you’re rationing packets, it’s pretty much a linear relationship between battery life—battery consumption—and packets delivered. There’s also some display consumption, of course, with the color display. So all I can say is carriers do get the element…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Vivek Arya - Merrill Lynch.

Vivek Arya - Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Could you please discuss how the product pipeline is looking for the remainder of the year? What new capabilities can we look forward to, to say, to compete with the Palm 3 and all these new android smartphones.

James L. Balsillie

Management

I think we have talked a little bit about where we’re going. I mean the BES 5.0 is a platform play and then all the evolution of Biz and then sort of the Unite break-out pieces with the media sync and others to come. And the new value-add services like App Store and so on and so forth. I think the whole BlackBerry environment and it’s richness and its reliability of our infrastructure truly—and the nature of our service model in the channel, helping them train the care, save queues, help queues, automated help on BlackBerry, channel capacity, in-store training, seating, promotion—these are all very, very important parts of what we do. And develop stuff this kind of stuff. And branding and the U2 part, etc., etc. These are all parts of the whole system. And then you come into, okay, let’s talk about the access device. And obviously we had a stellar set of introductions late in the calendar year and that’s played a critical role in where we are today. Suffice it to say we have an exciting road map for the back half of this year. We just try not to talk a lot about them six or seven months in advance. But generally with the carriers, you know, your carrier partners, you’re planning sort of twelve months, pretty firm, right out there, specific launches in the springtime, into the back-to-school, into the holiday season, and then what’s sort of game changing in new ways, early in the next calendar year. So that’s a very active part of our life. Ongoing but particularly right now but everything is sort of getting reloaded into the summertime. I just can’t get specific right now but lots of packaging, lots of multimedia, lots of new air link. Some surprising things…

Vivek Arya - Merrill Lynch

Analyst

And just one perhaps related thing. What’s been the response to the applications to the launch? Where I’m going with that is that some of your carrier customers also plan to open their own application stores. Do you see any risk of the customer being confused or do you see a place for multiple application stores, and what would really be the impact of that application store on RIM’s earnings model later in the year.

James L. Balsillie

Management

I think it adds the—it’s positive, modestly positive. It’s not a big profit driver but it’s a real catalyst for the developers and for users. And it’s kind of a precondition. And I will tell you, the first day has been—we’ve been shocked by the adoption, the flow of apps and new users has been pleasantly surprising. Honestly, I think if carriers have a store, it’s an awful lot for a carrier to do. Some of them have that. You have to do everything. You have to do the developers, you have to maintain the environment, you have to do all the agreements, have to do the merchandising. And the truth of it is carriers have—the reality of wireless is the environments are fragmented so they have to do this in multiple kinds of environments. I just think it’s an untenably difficult job for a carrier to do. And it’s inefficient. And it would be as inefficient as them creating their own BlackBerry Enterprise Server. But, I think the magic lies in letting the carrier drive what they want to drive, which is cut their own deals with developers when appropriate, for a key app, and drive their own apps. Let them have their own store within a store, let them have their branding. Let them have a rep share, let them integrate it with their billing, integrate it with their care. And then the carrier is a strategic platform but we get to do our effort of levering our community across almost 500 carrier and distribution partners in over 160 countries. And that’s that nuancing that I think we are really well, is the carrier as the strategic platform, but how we interrelate with them is critical. And again, we cracked that model eight years ago and we have stayed consistently invested in it. And it works. And so I think the app store is if you just say, “No, carrier, you’re out of this. Good-bye.” I think that’s got a disintermediation risk which is strategically risky to them, but if you also say to them, “Okay, here you go. You carry it. You run it.” Is that something they can really invest in and support property and does that make it compelling to the users, does that make it compelling to the developers? And so I think there’s a better place in the partnership model. And we’ve spent a lot of time on it and we’ve got a lot of work because there’s different billing systems and there’s different languages and all that, so it puts a lot on our backs but this is a model we know and trust and it has built over years and again, we’ve been very, very consistent and predictable on it.

Operator

Operator

This concludes the question and answer session.

Edel Ebbs

Management

In closing I would like to remind everyone that there is a post-view service available at 416-640-1917, pass code 21252988#, or you can also listen to the call which has been recorded and is available on the Investor Relation section of our website at www.rim.com/investors.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today’s conference call.