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Banco Bradesco S.A. (BBDO)

Q2 2013 Earnings Call· Tue, Jul 23, 2013

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. We would like to welcome everyone to Banco Bradesco's Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Results Conference Call. This call is being broadcasted simultaneously through the internet and the website, www.bradesco.com.br/ir. In that address, you can also find a banner through which the presentation will be available for download. [Operator Instructions] Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements are being made under the Safe Harbor of the Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1996. Forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Banco Bradesco's management and on information currently available to the company. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they relate to future events and, therefore, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Banco Bradesco and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Now I would turn the conference over to Mr. Paulo Faustino da Costa, Market Relations Department Director.

Paulo Faustino da Costa

Analyst

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for participating in our second quarter conference call. We are here to provide you with all the information you need about our numbers. And this is line with our goal of always increasing the transparency of information disclosed to the market. We have here today, Mr. Julio de Siqueira Carvalho de Araujo, Executive Vice President; Mr. Marco Antonio Rossi, the Chief Executive Officer of Bradesco Seguros Group and Bradesco Executive Vice President; Mr. Luiz Carlos Angelotti, Executive Managing Director and Investor Relations Officer. Mr. Moacir Nachbar Junior, Deputy Officer. I will now turn to Mr. Luiz Carlos Angelotti, who will lead our conference call. And after his presentation, we will be open to answer your questions. Mr. Angelotti, please go ahead.

Luiz Carlos Angelotti

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our second quarter 2013 conference call. I will now deal with some highlights of and deal [ph] with strong our financial statements, point out that they were prepared under 100% Central Bank accounting rules. Slide 2 and 3 show our main highlights, amongst which I would particularly like to draw your attention on Slide 2 to our adjusted net income of BRL 5,921,000,000 in the first half of 2013, 3.7% up on the same period last year. Another highlight was the 10% increase in the field of our net credit margin, that is the booking provision for loan loss, and our total assets, which came to BRL 897 billion, 8% up on June in 2012. On Slide 3, it is especially worth noting our assets under management, which ended the quarter at BRL 1.234 trillion, a 9.1% increase over June 2012. And our 90-day delinquency ratio, which recorded an important 50 basis points reduction in the last 12 months, closing the quarter at 3.7%. As well, the extension of our 90- and 60-day coverage ratios. Slide 4 shows the reconciliation between our book net income and the adjusted net incomes. This quarter, the only nonrecurring event was the provision for civil contingencies in the gross amount of BRL 48 million. Adjusting for this event, our second quarter additional net income came to BRL 2,978,000,000. Also on this slide, you can see that our adjusted return on average equity assets came to 18.8% in the first half of 2013. Slide 5 shows a historical series of our quarterly net income. Net income growth in the second quarter of 2013 was mainly due, first, to a higher business volume, which provided for an increase in fee income; second, to our reduction in the delinquencies;…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Mr. Martinez, your line is open. Saul Martinez - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: This is Saul Martinez from JPMorgan. So I have 2 questions. First of all, on net interest income. If I X out -- if I look at net interest income on interest-earning or interest-bearing net interest income, including the noninterest component, it rose 0.6% Q-on-Q. And you had, I believe, 3 or 4 more business days this quarter than last quarter. Your current guidance of 4% to 8%, obviously, it's a reduction. But it does imply that net interest income will grow off of current levels pretty nicely in 3Q and 4Q. Given the macro environment, why do you feel confident that, that net interest income is going to grow at the rate that will allow you to get to your guidance? Secondly, on asset quality. I understand you can't talk about specific exposures. There've been a lot of speculation in the press about your exposures to one group. You've also indicated that your loan loss provisions for 2013 in the past will be about BRL 13 billion, more or less, maybe a little bit less than that. Is there any risk that, that specific corporate exposures could put that loan loss provision guidance at risk? Are you worried that, that could be the case?

Luiz Carlos Angelotti

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Thank you for the question. About the net interest income growth, we revised our guidance. Now the guidance that we have is 4% to 8%. This guidance normally is considered is, basing our budgets, we revised the growth for this year. But we understand that in the component that we have in our net interest earning portion, net interest income, we have the main component is loans. In this line, in this first half, we have some effects from the new credit card points that we adopt for the interest rates. We reduced the interest rates for the credit card revolving operations. And the new format that we have now, we understand that the clients will use more. And this is a one-off effect that will help to improve more the revenues in the loan side. We have now, we have all the products that we understand that will continue to grow, payroll loans, mortgage operations, and these parts are growing more than 30% in the mortgage case. And the payroll loans, our internal production is growing more than 6% in the annual basis. For companies, we have the auto loans operation, the truck loans that, that is growing more than 20%. Export financing is another product that is growing higher. Mortgage for companies is going more than 30%. Then we need to understand that to reaching the growth that we expect for our credit portfolio, that we expect to finish the year around 13%. Then we expect more on better increasing the first line that is loans. In the funding revenues that we have in the net interest earnings, we did the modification in the Selic rate, that is in the expectation that we have for the Selic rate for the year. Probably, we'll have there some additional revenue…

Luiz Carlos Angelotti

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

In this half, this first half, in the last year, when you compare the revenues that we had last year, the funding line, we had more revenues because the level of the rates. Then in this first half of the year last year, we had some additional impacts from the more funding revenues and a little more security orders revenues. This year, we expect to have more, to go up, the funding line, we'll grow more. And the loan side, we expect that will have an additional revenues that will come from cards. And the additional, other part of that, as I mentioned, that we expect to have a better growth. You understand that we have how to get to stay in accordance with our guidance, and we expect to be, to stay more closer to the same period of the guidance. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Mr. Mark Jason with Invesco.

Mark Jason

Analyst

My question is relating to the adjustment necessary for the difference in working days. So it seems that your fees were up something like 8.4% quarter-over-quarter and that was impacted by advisory fees. But if we exclude the advisory fees, it was up something like 6.2%. But there was an increase in working days. So what I'm trying to understand is, like, what would be the adjusted growth rate in fees given the impact from the additional working days? And what other areas would you see significant impact from the additional days?

Luiz Carlos Angelotti

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

This second quarter, when you compare with the first quarter, in many lines, even you have this effect of the working days in expenditures, in fees and in some revenues that we have in the loans. But if you compare in the annual basis, we -- this affect is neutral. Then we understand that, okay, we have these more business days when you compare quarter with quarter, the second quarter with the first quarter. But when you look at the annual basis, this problem, we don't have this problem because the difference here is very small, I think, 1 day or 2 days. Then I think the better growth, the better numbers that you can see above grows in the annual base. And then in fees, expenditures, these the main lines that we have this effect.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Mr. Mario Pierry with Deutsche Bank.

Mario Pierry - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Let me ask 2 questions also related to net interest income and asset quality. First, on net interest income, on your prepared remarks, you expect your net interest margin to be down to about 7% from 7.2% because of competitive pressure on spreads. Can you just elaborate on that? Are you still seeing the state-owned banks being very aggressive? Is that your expectation that they will continue to gain market share throughout the year? Or are you already seeing a more rational behavior by them? And then second question is related to asset quality. Just looking forward, right, we are seeing that the economy in Brazil is much weaker than expected. It seems like you still expect nonperforming loans to continue to decline throughout the year. So I'm just wondering why do you feel comfortable that we're not going to see a pickup in NPL, especially in the SME segment. You continue to show the fastest growth in your loans. Your loan growth is actually being driven by the SME portfolio. So if you can just elaborate your level of comfort in that segment in a weaker economic environment.

Luiz Carlos Angelotti

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Okay. Thank you for the question, Mario. Talk about the net interest, the NIM, we finished the quarter with 7.2%. We are working hard to maintain the spreads table. If you look our number that we have in our comments, in our book, we maintained, in the first quarter, the spreads. In the second quarter, compared with the first quarter, it was 10.3%. We are working in [indiscernible] for the 2 months in the spreads table. We expected more competition. We understand that this year, that the private banking, they will -- they are more -- they are expecting to grow more. They are trying to grow more. And we had some pressures. But we understand that the -- our NIM, until the end of the year, could reach at the maximum to 7%, not less than that, this number. This effect is, that we talked about, is because these pressures in the spreads because of the competition. We see that the public banks, they are working to grow hard, but not to -- we're still BRL 7 billion over last year, or they are perhaps more rational spreads, more in the level and more in the market level. About the asset quality. Okay, the economy is weaker than we expected in the beginning. They are -- our GDP growth was -- our expectation was 3.5%. Now we have it 2.2%. But if you compare with 2012, we have a better year for the expectation for growth. Then we, in this quarter, we finished the quarter with a delinquency ratio around 3.7%. We expect that we probably will maintain this level. We expect stability for this level of our delinquency ratio. But with some bias downward for the quality, the short delinquency ratio that we have in our portfolio is…

Mario Pierry - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

All right. So let me just go back into what you then -- to your answer to the net interest margin. Basically, you said, right, that you expect NIM to reach 7% by the end of the year. But you are seeing a more rational behavior by the public sector banks. Also, we're seeing a much higher Selic rate. So is it fair to assume that the 7% from your part seems conservative? Especially, as Saul was asking you, about the net interest income growth that you're forecasting for the year, 4% to 8%, it seems like in order for you to get that rate...

Luiz Carlos Angelotti

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

It's conservative. This position is conservative. Because we understand that we have this competition. We are working side -- if you compare our numbers, you -- we could maintain stable the spreads in the first half. Then we will work in the second half in the same way. If we have success, we understand that we have this guidance, 7%, is conservative, very conservative.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Ms. Regina Sanchez with Itaú. Regina Longo Sanchez - Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A., Research Division: I also have 2 questions. The first one is that we observed the large corporate loans classified as rating D presented an increase to 2.5% from 1% of large corporate loans or approximately BRL 2.4 billion in the second quarter. We saw that on Page 40 of the MD&A. I know you won't mention specific names of companies that have been downgraded. But we'd like to know whether you consider this downgrade as a one-off event or, in other words, that loan-loss provision expenses would have been even lower, I mean, in around BRL 200 million if it's downgraded. Did it happen? And if we could expect even lower levels of loan-loss provision expenses as a percentage of average lower in the coming quarters? Or if there's a chance that we could see more downgrades in the following quarters related to these or other large corporate loans? And then I have a second question.

Luiz Carlos Angelotti

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Okay. We can't comment about our clients. We're constantly revising our portfolio about the risks. And we do the adjustments that we understand are necessary to force our clients and our portfolio. Then there's a normal policy that we have, and we do this every month. Our spread department, they are responsible for these. I understand inside of the company, we maintain this portfolio in the better relation or in the better position that we understand in the -- according to the risks that we -- according to our spreads analysis. We cannot comment about the clients because the Central Bank, our rules in accounting and the best practice. And for this year, what we expect is that our expenses, considering that now we have the new level for the delinquency ratio, we understand that probably our expense will be something around, in the year, around the BRL 12.5 billion or something around that. Because we understand that we will maintain stable delinquency ratio this year with some expectations to have a better -- some decrease. Then we understand that, probably, the expense will reduce a little more for the future. Regina Longo Sanchez - Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A., Research Division: Okay. So you're saying that it should be lower than the BRL 13 billion that we saw in 2012?

Luiz Carlos Angelotti

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Yes. Our expectations was something around BRL 13 billion. But now, considering this new situation that we have, probably something around the BRL 12.5 billion. This number is net of recoveries. These are considering the net of recoveries. Regina Longo Sanchez - Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A., Research Division: Okay, perfect. And my second question is that, if you could share with us the asset and liability management trends that you predict regarding the banking book, as well as for the affiliated companies, I mean, mainly the insurance and pension business. Because we understand that more than half of this mark-to-market of available-for-sale securities in the equity is related to the insurance and pension business, which does have a match with liabilities that are not mark-to-market in the equity. But part of this asset-liability management strategy also is increasing the developed risk of the bank and the market risk that is also accounted for the capital ratio of the bank. And also, because it called my attention, if this is part of the asset-liability management of the bank to carry the national treasury notes that we saw a significant increase in this quarter. I mean, on the explanatory notes, we saw the outstanding balance going up from BRL 28 billion to BRL 41 billion in this quarter. So is this a new strategy of Bradesco? And now, it's matched with the funding of the bank in terms of deposits, in saving deposits, that the bank decided already to walk a spread and bought these national treasury notes at a yield that was now -- was lower than the current market price and that's why we saw the negative impact in the equity of the bank. I'm not sure if I was clear, and you can ask me if it wasn't.

Luiz Carlos Angelotti

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Okay. This asset-liability management is not a new strategy of the bank. If you annualize last year, we had the same similar position in these bonds. We worked for to mitigate the maturity rates in mismatched risk. And this portfolio that we have in the available-for-sale is in the -- around the totalities related to this asset-liability management. We have the insurance business and we have the bank insurance and the -- we have the banking business. We work for to maintain this, the liabilities to help there with the assets, to maintain, to protect, to mitigate the risks. We are -- we have this book, these bonds that we have. And I'm talking about the insurance business. We have some liabilities in the insurance business that we have 10 years, 20 years, 40 years. Then we have -- we need to have the bonds with long-term maturities for to protect the requirements, the liabilities that we have in the insurance business. For the bank, we have the liabilities related to savings, financial ladders, subordinated debts that we do this liability -- the asset-liability management. And we need maintain these bonds for to protect these liabilities that we have in the banking. It's not a new policy that we have. And this portfolio, the majority is in the available-for-sale. And therefore, in the accounting rules, you need to mark-to-market these bonds, these assets, every policy that you have. But you cannot do, in the liability, the same mark-to-market valuation. Then the problem when you analyze the shareholders' records is that we have only the mark-to-market assets. If it was possible, were possible to have the mark-to-market liabilities, the effect that you have in the shareholders' record will be neutral. Then we understand that in the future, probably, we will continue having these effects. But these effects start to lose any economic impact in our results. The important thing is that we maintain these bonds for to mitigate the maturing rates mismatched risk. Regina Longo Sanchez - Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A., Research Division: Okay. So if you're maintaining these bonds to match with these liabilities, with the savings, and subordinate that, was there a particular reason to increase the national treasury notes outstanding balance from BRL 28 billion, what was the outstanding balance in March 31, to BRL 41 billion in June 30? I mean, was it increased also on the funding of the bank?

Luiz Carlos Angelotti

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

We -- every time we analyze the opportunities, we -- when we had these movements in the second quarter, with the increase in the rates, we understood that it was one good moment for to do this asset management liabilities. And then we understand that to -- we have now our position that we have. We understand that we are confident with this position and the perspective that we have for the future. And we -- understand that we work hard to mitigate this maturity in the rates mismatched risk.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Mr. Marcelo Telles with Credit Suisse. Marcelo Telles - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: I had some follow-up questions on my question in the Portuguese call. They're both related, I mean, to the mark-to-market of the bond portfolio. Regarding the BRL 9 billion in unrealized losses that you had in the quarter, about BRL 4.5 billion took place at the bank. And you mentioned that this is part of the asset-liability management and that, for that reason, there will be -- the actual economic impact will not be -- would actually be 0, right? But I have to disagree with that, because when you look at the mark-to-market of all your financial abilities, and this is second page, 203 from your MD&A, we actually see that the difference in mark-to-market was only, on a pretax basis, BRL 830 million. And I'm including the subordinated debt here and borrowing and lending, all the main liabilities. And you lost BRL 4.5 billion. So it shows, I mean, there was really -- it was not an asset-liability management position, it was indeed more like a treasury position. So I don't know if you could explain in more detail, and how do you see that approach regarding your treasury changing going forward, because, of course, this has implications in terms of what the trade result is going to be in the quarters to come. I think you mentioned before that you expect to be back again at BRL 300 million, but -- per quarter. But I think this is -- I mean, do you think this is realistic given that you had interest rates coming down over the years, but so the available-for-sale securities which had an impact over time in your trading result. So how do you see that line going forward? And my second question is regarding the sale of available-for-sale securities. You mentioned in the Portuguese call that there was no -- that Bradesco did not sell available-for-sale securities. But looking at the cash flow statement of the bank, this is in the MD&A as well, we actually saw that there was almost BRL 7 billion of available-for-sale instruments that were actually sold. And that information is there. So I'd like to know, what was the P&L impact arising from the sale of those available-for-sale instruments? Because my sense is that your trading result would actually be much lower, or far more negative, than what was, again, just the BRL 18 million that you reported in the quarter.

Luiz Carlos Angelotti

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Talk about the first question. The subordinate debts that we have in this calculation that we have in Page 203, the criteria that we have for to do the present value is different than we have for to do the mark-to-market in the bonds. In these calculations that we have in Page 2003 [sic] (203) the rate that we used in this case is the rates that we had in the last negotiation after this paper. Then considering the -- not the mark-to-market, the marketing rates that we have is the rates that we have for this paper in the last negotiation. Then it's a different criteria for to do this comparison between the asset and the liability. And this position that we have in the asset-liability management, we are confident that we don't have any kind affecting in -- that represented economic impact. These adjustments that we have in the equity is because this accounting effect that we have, that we need to mark-to-market only the assets and not -- we can't mark-to-market the liabilities. And we will talk about today, about the available-for-sale operations. That is the majority of this portfolio that we have in the available-for-sale is related to the operations that we have in the asset-liability management. A small part that we have, you're seeing our trading position. Then in the trading positions, a small part, but they do the -- our spreads department, they have their strategy and they do their movement. But in this position that we have for asset-liability management, it did not change the position of our sale bonds. We maintained a similar position that we had last year, and we had only some increasing in the second quarter because we saw -- we understood that we had an opportunity for improve…

Luiz Carlos Angelotti

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Our expectation for the GDP growth is 2.3%. Then this result is what our economic department, they have now. And we changed our guidance for that and we're considering this expectation. Our NPL, we reach now in the lower level, 3.7%. And we understand that we will have a more established in this year and probably in 2014. Because we understand that the scenario that we have for next year is that the economy will grow something on 2.5%, a little better than we -- our expectation for this year. And the unemployment rate will be -- we can consider stable, for the only 0.1% increase. Then... Marcelo Telles - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: I understand your scenario. My question is in -- I mean, have you done some analysis in a more bear-ish scenario? I mean does that change the strategy or lead to maybe an increase in NPLs this year or much lower growth in the loan portfolio?

Luiz Carlos Angelotti

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Can you repeat, the NPL? Marcelo Telles - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: The NPL ratio. My question is, I mean, I understand this scenario that you've laid out and you've become more conservative. But my point is that, what if the scenario is worse than what we are seeing today? And I think there is downside to that scenario. So my question is, have you done any analysis, what would happen if the economy grows much less? And I mean, do you consider that in your worst-case analysis? I mean, have you done something in that regard, and what sort of increase in the NPLs could we expect?

Luiz Carlos Angelotti

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

I don't think that scenario will be worse. What you have is less growth in the economy, but it is a good growth. And probably, the quiet growth, the loan portfolio growth will be less than we have in the past here. And sometimes, in the past, we have 25%, 30%. And now, probably, the new level that they will have for the economy is something on a more lower level, probably between 10% to 15%, 10% to 13%. What you have now is a new scenario for the economy, but not a bad scenario. We understand that -- we expect to, in our case, a stability in our NPL ratio, considering the scenario that we have for 2013 and the year that we will have after. Our economy department, they expect the GDP growth, similar grow. And it's something that we understand, too, we have more stability now in the delinquency ratio because these new structures that we have in the system. Lower growth for the credit portfolio, but a more stable situation in these ratios.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, since there are no further questions, I would like to invite Mr. Paulo Faustino da Costa to proceed.

Paulo Faustino da Costa

Analyst

Thank you, all, for participating in this conference call. I would like to take this opportunity to remind you that there are marked [ph] relations department and our IR team are at your disposal, and get all the contents of our second quarter 2013 and other information concerning Bradesco in our website. Thank you, all.

Operator

Operator

This concludes Banco Bradesco's audio conference for today. Thank you very much for your participation and have a good day.