Earnings Labs

Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 27, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Best Buy's fourth quarter fiscal 2014 earnings conference call. [Operator Instructions] I will now turn the conference call over to Bill Seymour, vice president of investor relations.

Bill Seymour

Analyst

Good morning, and thank you. Joining me on the call today are Hubert Joly, our president and CEO; and Sharon McCollam, our CAO and CFO. As usual, the media will be participating in this call on a listen-only mode. This morning's conference call must be considered in conjunction with the earnings release that we issued earlier today. They both contain non-GAAP financial measures that exclude the impact of certain business events. These non-GAAP financial measures are provided to facilitate meaningful year-over-year comparisons, but should not be considered superior to or as a substitute for and should be read in conjunction with the GAAP financial measures for the period. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and an explanation of why these non-GAAP financial measures are useful can be found in this morning's earnings release. Today's earnings release and conference call also include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements address the financial condition, results of operations, business initiatives, growth plans, operational investments, and prospects of the company and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements. Please refer to the company's current earnings release and SEC filings for more information on these risks and uncertainties. The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that may arise after the date of this call. All information regarding the company’s results pertain to continuing operations, and do not include the impact of the European business, which was sold on June 26, 2013, or mindSHIFT Technologies, which was sold on February 1, 2014. In today’s earnings release and conference call, as we did in our holiday release, we refer to consumer electronics, or CE, industry trends and our market share. Share gain is determined by reference to the information from the NPD Group. The CE industry, as defined by the NPD Group, includes TV, desktop, notebook computers, tablets not including Kindle, digital imaging, and other categories. It does not include mobile phones, gaming, movies, music, appliances, or services. I will now turn the call over to Hubert.

Hubert Joly

Analyst

Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. In today’s call, we’re going to start with a recap of our fourth quarter results and an overview of the progress we have made against our fiscal 2014 renewable priorities. Then we’ll provide an update on our Renew Blue strategy and our outlook for fiscal 2015. So as we discussed in our holiday sales call, the fourth quarter was an environment of declining retail traffic, intense promotion, fewer holiday shopping days, and severe weather. It was also an environment of weaker than expected industry sales in the consumer electronics category, in an environment of evolving consumer behavior, as the customer’s affinity for online shopping continued to escalate. So what did we do? We focused on the things we can control, without losing sight of what was really important, our customers, and the promises that we make to them. As such, we continued to invest in our price competitiveness, albeit at a cost, and identified our focus on improving our [personal] efficiencies, driving down our costs and lowering our inventories. The net financial result of these efforts was a comparable store sales decline of 1.2% and an operating margin decline of 120 basis points. While of course we cannot be satisfied with a fourth quarter operating margin decline of 120 basis points, the decline included an expected approximately 100 basis point negative impact associated with our mobile warranty and new credit card agreement economics that we called out in our Q3 call. Thus, we were able to materially offset the price investments we have been making with substantial cost savings and other operational improvements. Within these results, though, were mixed outcomes I would like to highlight. First, we gained market share, but as I said, it came at…

Sharon McCollam

Analyst

Thank you, and good morning everyone. Before I talk about our fourth quarter results versus last year, I’d like to talk about them versus the expectations we shared with you in our holiday sales press release. In the holiday sales press release, we said that we expected our fourth quarter operating margins to decline 175 to 180 basis points due to the intense pricing pressure in the holiday season. What we reported this morning was an operating margin decline of 120 basis points. This 55 to 60 basis point favorability, all in the month of January of course, was primarily driven by an overall less promotional retail environment, stronger than expected participation from our vendors in the support of our price investments, and tighter expense management. I’ll now talk about the fourth quarter versus last year. Enterprise revenue declined 3% to $14.5 billion. Enterprise non-GAAP diluted EPS declined to $1.24 versus $1.47 last year. This decline was primarily driven by a significant investment in price competitiveness, the negative impact associated with our mobile warranty and new credit card economics, and a lower gross margin in mobile due to the lower attachment rates on mobile service plans. These declines, however were substantially offset by a $0.15 per diluted share favorable income tax resolution in fiscal ’14 that did not occur in fiscal ’13, the favorable impact of our Renew Blue cost reduction initiatives, tighter expense management throughout the company, and lower incentive compensation. Domestic revenue of $12.3 billion declined 1.8% versus last year. This decline was primarily driven by a comparable store sales decline of 1.2%, but excluding a 30 basis point impact from the rationalization of noncore businesses and an additional 30 basis point impact from the services related profit sharing payment that occurred in January ’13 but did not…

Hubert Joly

Analyst

Thank you, Sharon. I would now like to discuss our plans going forward. Our strategy is clear. It is to be the authority and destination for technology products and services. And as our transformation is a multiyear journey, and we are operating in an ever changing retail environment, we thought it was important today to share with you our Renew Blue roadmap over the next 24 months. During this time, we will continue to address three business imperatives. Number one, improving our operational performance, number two building foundational capabilities necessary to unlock future growth strategies, and number three, leveraging our unique assets to create significant differentiation that is meaningful for our customers and our vendors. Our roadmap for achieving these business imperatives is built around the following areas: merchandising, marketing, online, stores, supply chain, Geek Squad services, cost structure, and employee engagement. Let me cover each of these. Our first area is merchandising. Our goal is to create a compelling assortment online and in the stores, with a superior end to end customer experience that yields enhanced [unintelligible] returns. Our priorities in merchandising over the next 24 months are to develop compelling and differentiated strategies for key categories that make promoters out of customers and that leverage Best Buy’s competitive assets; to strengthen our vendor partnerships, including launching new vendor shopping experiences; to implement an enhanced online shopping experience for key categories and to continue to optimize space and shoppability in our stores as well as improving visual merchandising; expand our private label and branded exclusive product assortment; expand [unintelligible] in home and Magnolia design centers stores within a store, which are proving to provide a superior customer experience; and then of course optimizing returns, replacements, and damages through operational improvements [unintelligible] from store. And of course, we will continue…

Sharon McCollam

Analyst

Thank you, Hubert. In fiscal ’15, as Hubert shared with you, we are focused on three imperatives to drive our Renew Blue transformation: improving our operational performance including more quickly and more deeply reducing our costs, building foundational capabilities necessary to unlock future growth strategies which will require incremental investment, and leveraging our unique assets like our customer database to create significant differentiation that is meaningful for our customers and our vendors. With each of these imperatives that Hubert outlined comes year over year financial change, both positive and negative, and we know that modeling such changes absent additional information in a transformation like ours is extremely difficult. Therefore, as we have done in the past several quarters, we are providing you today with our quarterly estimates of how these discrete financial impacts will affect our quarterly operating income rates for 2015. These financial impacts continue to include the following business drivers: the negative impact of ongoing pricing investments, the negative impact of our incremental Renew Blue SG&A investments, the temporary negative impact of our mobile warranty costs, the negative impact of the economics of our new credit card agreement, and the offsetting positive impact of the realization of Renew Blue cost savings, which now total $765 million on an annualized basis. In our Q3 fiscal ’14 earnings release, we quantify the net year over year impact of these drivers to the operating income rate by quarter, as follows: negative 60 to 90 basis points in Q1 fiscal ’15, negative 70 to 100 basis points in Q2 fiscal ’15, and negative 30 to 60 basis points in Q3 fiscal ’15. Today, due to a higher than expected negative impact from the economics of the new credit card agreement, and the incremental year over year pricing investments, we are now expecting…

Operator

Operator

[Operator instructions.] Our first question is from the line of Michael Lasser with UBS.

Michael Lasser - UBS

Analyst

I was hoping to get a little more clarity on what’s driving your expectation for the industry to be down in the first half of the year, and then how that translates to your comp performance. You have been taking share, so why wouldn’t we necessarily believe that share gains could offset a difficult environment?

Hubert Joly

Analyst

As we go to expectations, we’ve seen the industry trends in Q4. We also see, and many retailers are reporting [unintelligible] on this, an environment with economic uncertainty, retail challenges. And of course, in consumer electronics, a lot of the market is dependent on new product introductions, and so until you know what the products are going to be, it’s hard to predict. So we find it’s appropriate for us to be planning in a relatively proven fashion, if you will, that the market will not turn - until we see evidence that it turns, we should assume it will not turn - and focus on, as we have done in Q4, on what we can control. And so therefore the comment that Sharon made at the end of her observations that we are not planning positive comps during the first half of the year, though we won’t complain if the comps turn positive, but in our planning. And therefore, you highlight everything we’ve said about more deeply, more quickly reducing the costs, improving our operational performance, driving the efficiencies, [unintelligible] the foundations for our future in store growth. So we’re focusing on what we can control and approaching the year in a prudent fashion. It’s more a planning assumption than a true forecast, if you will.

Michael Lasser - UBS

Analyst

What is the spread between the profitability of the online business and the store-based business now? If you could give some quantification of it? And how long do you think it will take to close that gap?

Sharon McCollam

Analyst

We’re not going to quantify that. We think it’s highly competitive, I think you would agree, as we compete with some of the giants. But what I would say is that what we expect is gradual and incremental improvement. And as you can see on the cost side, once we get the Athena project up and running, productivity of email and other aspects of online, sea changes in performance. So I won’t reiterate all of the initiatives we had online, but when you look at those and you look at how they will benefit conversion. The other area that is significant for us in the online channel is attach rate. And right now we just launched the ability to attach services. That’s a new capability that we brought on in Q4. But there is so much that needs to be done there, because you know that in our business, hardware comes at very low margins, and to improve the margin it’s about the basket. So we have to be able, online, to compel the customer to fill out that hardware purchase with different services, accessories, etc. So those are the big opportunities for us online, but as you look at our investments, this is going to be gradual and incremental, and quite frankly, there’s only one direction that we would expect it to be going. It’s a multiyear journey, for sure. There is a distance between these two numbers today, and that’s why there’s so much opportunity.

Operator

Operator

And our next question is from David Magee from SunTrust.

David Magee - SunTrust

Analyst

I have a question about the shops in the shops in 2013 and during the holiday. Net-net, how happy are you with the performance of those shops, and could we expect to see additional shops in 2014?

Hubert Joly

Analyst

The way we evaluate the shops in the shops is what the customers think, what the vendors think, and what we see. The customers have been very happy with the shopping experience, which is really transformational, very helpful. I think the vendors, I don’t want to speak for them, maybe you can ask them directly, but let’s say I think they’re quite happy. And for us, the way we measure the aggregate performance increasingly is in the overall performance of the company, and it’s definitely having a positive contribution. So while we’re not making specific announcements today in our good tradition of talking about things once they are in place, you can expect more and better of the same in this fiscal year.

Operator

Operator

And our next question is from Aram Rubinson with Wolfe Research.

Aram Rubinson - Wolfe Research

Analyst

Your online business was up 25%. Your retail business was down 5%. I think some of the historical definitions of retail, looking at things on a per square foot or per store basis, are getting a little bit archaic. Can you talk to us a little bit about the behavior of your customer and how your revenue per active customer is looking, and if your online initiatives are making new customers, or just kind of preventing existing ones from defecting?

Hubert Joly

Analyst

You’re absolutely right that thinking about the two channels independently makes no sense anymore, even though technically you can track where the transaction is completed. What we see is the [unintelligible] of our shopping experience is online. Customers start their shopping experience online. And that’s why our strategic investments in the online shopping experience both with traffic and the experience on the site is fundamental. It’s fundamental to our online business, and to our store business. So throughout the company, it’s online first. The way our merchants are now thinking about the overall strategy, they spend so much time on that path, and improving the shopping experience. Of course, there’s no blue shirt on the site, so you have to expand the shoppability of the site. Now, whether or not the transaction gets completed on the site, for us, is a little bit irrelevant. This is up to the customer. We don’t have a bias. Even though the economics in the short term are different, we don’t have a bias. We’re so incredibly customer focused, and so we drive this based on what the customer wants to do. And I don’t know, Sharon, if there’s anything you want to add to this.

Sharon McCollam

Analyst

No, I think also that when you look at the competitive advantage that we have, realistically we have a store within 15 minutes of the U.S. population. So when you think about that, and you think about the online channels being the window into our business, the one thing that our online competitors cannot do is give it to them now, at this moment. And there are some abilities out there that are being developed, but if I want control of my purchase, we have a [moat] that makes it very easy for the customer to be served where and when they want to be served. The interesting fact about that, which Hubert alluded to, is that today a very high percentage of our online sales actually are customers that picked the inventory up in our stores. And we love that, because that gives us the opportunity to interact with the customer, that gives us the opportunity to continue to build that personal relationship with the customer, and going forward we see that as a tremendous competitive advantage as we continue to get better and better at it. And we’re making some very significant investments in that area so that the customer has a completely seamless experience as they go through the entire process.

Aram Rubinson - Wolfe Research

Analyst

I appreciate that. I’m also curious if you guys have a way of measuring whether or not you’re attracting new customers with these initiatives, or whether we’re kind of preventing customers from defecting the channel.

Hubert Joly

Analyst

I’m sorry. I knew I was not completely answering your question. It’s both. A significant portion of our growth is coming from new customers, and one of our key opportunities, by the way, as a company, is to expand our presence and become the preferred brand for the Millennial population. We do extremely well with the Boomers, I think we have opportunities with the Millennials, and our online push is going to be very helpful from that standpoint. And of course online is a way to expand the relationship with existing customers. So it’s really both, and we’ll continue to push in these areas. But I’ll highlight some of the opportunities we have: attract new customers, expand the relationship with existing customers, and expand our share of wallet as we look at the various buying opportunities they have.

Sharon McCollam

Analyst

And we saw that in the fourth quarter. In Hubert’s remarks, he talked about the fact that we relaunched My Best Buy and the credit card. We saw a significant number of new members doing My Best Buy. In addition to that, we saw a higher penetration of customers using our financing and our credit card. So again, engaging that customer and putting our arms around then so that long term, when they look to where they want to buy their consumer electronics, they will choose Best Buy.

Hubert Joly

Analyst

In fact, I would like to highlight one thing. One thing that’s very gratifying, both for the quarter and the year, is to see how customers are responding. Because we’re gaining market share, so that’s clear. And while the top line comps are slightly down, of course it’s after the effects of deflation. From a transaction standpoint, customers are voting with their feet, both online and in aggregate, and giving us more of their business. So the combination of enhanced price competitiveness and improved customer experience, resulting in these gains, shows the strength of the Best Buy franchise and the foundations, the platform we have for growth looking ahead. That’s very, very important.

Operator

Operator

And next is Mike Baker with Deutsche Bank.

Mike Baker - Deutsche Bank

Analyst

Can you discuss the promotion activity currently? What has changed since the holidays? It sounds to me, and correct me if I’m wrong, that the holidays just got extremely brutal and promotional and maybe things are more normal now. And so how do we therefore then think about gross margin trends for 2015 relative to that decline that you saw in the fourth quarter?

Sharon McCollam

Analyst

In my prepared remarks, I mentioned that in January we saw a less promotional environment. So once we exited the holiday, while it is still more promotional than a year ago from a cadence through the quarter point of view, we clearly saw the promotional environment be mitigated. As we look forward to 2015, obviously in the forecasts or the estimates that I gave you, one of those investments is pricing. And on a year over year basis, as you know, from Q1 to Q2 to Q3 to Q4, we had two pieces of our pricing. One is structural, and then one is the competitive side of it, and price matching, etc. So as we progress through 2015, in Q1 as an example, all the investments we made in Q2, Q3, and Q4 were not in Q1 last year. So in Q1 we’re seeing the biggest impact, and then it starts to mitigate in Q2, and then in Q3 it mitigates again. And then of course our perspective, as Hubert said, is that we believe that even in an equal environment of promotional cadence next holiday, we believe that based on the tools and the marketing and the capabilities that we’re building this year that our marketing effectiveness is going to be substantially better, and that when we go into the fourth quarter, even in that kind of an environment, we would see a much better margin outcome. So that’s how we’re thinking about it for 2015.

Operator

Operator

Next we have Gary Balter with Credit Suisse.

Gary Balter - Credit Suisse

Analyst

You went into Christmas kind of prepared, and then Walmart and Amazon and Target and everybody else went crazy. As we go into next Christmas, what do you envision will have changed? Will you have more vendor support? Will there be better control over UPC? How do you envision Christmas happening? Because it seems like every year we hit that point and people go whacko on pricing.

Hubert Joly

Analyst

A key thing that we are working on is we continue to improve capabilities of the foundational elements that I was talking about. Let me highlight a few. One is our marketing and promotional effectiveness. The ability for us to communicate to our customers in a relevant and more personalized fashion, we think, as we develop it gradually, is going to be helpful compared to blast emails only talking about price. So we think that’s the first one. The second thing is that continued improvements of the shopping experience. Those, as I think Sharon and I highlighted, are how on the site we are going to continue to make these improvements. Similarly, the shopping experience in the stores. So our strategy is to be price competitive and to build meaningful customer differentiation in terms of the unique value propositions we can offer to them as well as how we talk to them about this. So these are new capabilities that we are developing and that we think are going to be helpful. Are we’re planning the year with the assumption that all of a sudden the wolves are going to become sheep? No, of course not. And we’re going to continue to be in there ready to compete and so forth. It is possible that what happened during holiday, the players, the industry, will be, you used the word “crazy”, I’m not going to say our competitors are crazy, but the intensity may go down. But we’ll focus again on what we can control, which is what we do for our customers, how we talk to them, and then of course our efficiencies.

Sharon McCollam

Analyst

And then I’d just like to add to that that there’s a couple of other things that we did this year that we, because of the timing of our transformation, when Hubert came in, etc., a lot of these things got launched in October, right before the holiday season. So take My Best Buy, the launch of the new credit card, some of the ecommerce capabilities. We put new buying guides on the website. There was a litany of things that we did. Obviously, when you do that you are putting in new capability, you are learning from those capabilities, and a year down the road is like a lifetime. So all of these programs, all of this investment, which was substantial, as you know, you can see our capex, that going into 2015 holiday we are going to have a lot more experience in that. The other area that Hubert alluded to was pricing. We are investing in pricing capabilities this year. He’s said from the day he started that we’ve had a very underdeveloped pricing, modeling capability in the company. So when you start working on those things, they make a substantial difference, and we will continue to invest in those all year. They’ll get better and better, and by the time we get into holiday, we think that we’ll be able to put all of those together and come to market and to our customer in a substantially more compelling way.

Operator

Operator

And next is David Schick with Stifel.

David Schick - Stifel

Analyst

I’d like to go back to online. Your online sales have accelerated quite nicely, 10% up into the teens. It even looks like the accelerated from holiday to the full quarter. So out of the holiday. How much of that is just the way consumers are thinking and interacting with Best Buy, the way you talked about prior, or how much of that is new capabilities you’re turning on and/or anything you’re doing with compensation for store associates or measurement regarding the online trend?

Hubert Joly

Analyst

I think you’re absolutely right to note the acceleration. And we hope to continue to accelerate the acceleration. And we have to wait now. I think because [unintelligible] we’re gaining share online, which of course is our goal. We have some catching up to do. So this is the result of more traffic going to the site, and we are doing a better job converting that traffic, both on the site and then in the stores. So to take some examples of the latter meaning, the new capabilities, that’s [unintelligible] ship from store. We had highlighted how, in the past, a portion of the traffic on the site, looking for a product, the product was not available in the online distribution centers, but was available in the stores. The unlocking of ship from store, up to 400 stores doing [unintelligible], now all of the stores, has allowed us to accelerate the online growth in a significant fashion. Our in store pickup capabilities are a very strong competitive advantage. It’s roughly half of the online purchases that are picked up in the store, showing how meaningful our stores are as an asset. And please know that at Best Buy the store general managers and their teams are compensated not only on the brick and mortar revenue, but on the holistic revenue, and clearly with all of our stores now involving ship from store, they completely get it. And increasingly, the focus in the store, same as online, is the product is not available in the store, how can I get it to you? From another store? From our DC? And not available is not part of our vocabulary, and finding an answer is always part of our vocabulary. So I think we are appealing to new customers, and gradually, we’re doing a better job of responding to our customers.

Sharon McCollam

Analyst

Another very important aspect of that, especially in holiday this year, was the implementation of a new search engine on our website. Earlier last year we talked to you about the fact that the search engine that was operating on the site was nearly 10 years old. And customers were coming to the site and they were searching for products and of course the search engine was not robust enough for them to find what they were looking for. And when customers are trained by companies like Google, I type it in and it shows up, that’s what they expect. And they’re not going to type very many times until they get bored and walk away. The new search engine is state of the art technology and these search engines get smarter over time. Again, this gets into the discussion of the fact that we launched it right before holiday and again, it’s getting better and better as we move forward. But during holiday, the new search engine certainly made a substantial difference as well, another investment that we made that made a big difference.

Operator

Operator

And our final question comes from David Strasser with Janney Capital Markets.

David Strasser - Janney Capital Markets

Analyst

One question around pricing optimization, I guess. You had talked about that in the past. Is there an opportunity there as you go into this year? Where does that play into sort of what you’ve talked about? And I guess along those lines, during the call you had mentioned vendor support, and I was just sort of curious if you could give a little bit more detail how that vendor support changed from December to January and helped the gross margin from what you had seen over holiday and sort of how that happened?

Hubert Joly

Analyst

So price optimization, our strategy is to be price competitive, and we will continue to invest in that, as we’ve done last year. But of course you can be smart about it. And pricing is a very sophisticated science, so I would highlight a couple of areas to think about. One is marketing and promotional effectiveness. I don’t know any company in the world that doesn’t have opportunities in this area, and believe me, we do. So making sure that the promotions we do have the right return on investment. It’s back to relevant communication to the customers of how we talk to them, to whom, when, and how. And then there’s also tactical optimization. I don’t want to go into too much detail, but there’s more optimization really at the regional level, and so forth. As it relates to vendors, I’m not going to give a lot of color around this, but one of the key assets that has always struck me ever since I joined the company is how important Best Buy is for key vendors and [unintelligible] to their success. And so our teams work closely with them. There were some dialogs after the holidays, and there was good contribution, as is always the case. There was nothing extraordinary, but until it’s in the bank, you don’t necessarily bank on it. And so we’ll continue to work with our vendor partners to optimize the business for the customers, for themselves, and for ourselves. So it was part of the surprise that changed our expectations as it relates to the EPS for the quarter.

David Strasser - Janney Capital Markets

Analyst

Any thoughts on buybacks? I know you’ve kind of gone back and forth on that last year. Any further thoughts when you look at your cash balance and cash flow and stuff about this year and buyback?

Sharon McCollam

Analyst

We’re going to continue to evaluate our cash balance, obviously. Hubert and I believe deeply that putting a [fortress] on this balance sheet is really important. Obviously we know what bumps in the road look like, but we also know that over time there is a level of cash that makes sense and is a fortress and then there’s the time when you exceed that. At this point, we are very comfortable with where we’re sitting on our balance sheet and we’ll be talking about this over the next 12 months. But at this time, we do not have any plans on a share buyback.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. I’ll now turn the call back to Hubert for closing comments.