Earnings Labs

Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY)

Q4 2022 Earnings Call· Thu, Mar 3, 2022

$59.06

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Transcript

Corie Barry

Management

Thank you so much, Mollie. Good morning, everyone. We are so pleased you could join us today as we report our fiscal ‘22 results and take this opportunity to update our longer-term strategy and our multiyear financial outlook. Today, we will discuss how our business has evolved and how we are planning to drive value over the next few years. We’re not planning to cover all our initiatives or all our business units. We’ve tried to be as succinct as possible to focus on the topics and initiatives that we believe are most important for you to understand about our business, our plans and where we believe we’re headed, both for fiscal ‘23 and for the longer term. First, let’s discuss our fiscal ‘22 results. Fiscal ‘22 was another record year. In addition to record revenue and earnings, our leaders continue to drive new ways of operating, and our employees continue to do amazing things in the face of unprecedented challenge and change to support our customers’ technology needs in knowledgeable, fast and convenient ways. As we discussed when we entered the year, we anchored on three concepts we believe to be permanent and structural implications of the pandemic that were and are shaping our strategic priorities and investments. One, customer shopping behavior will be permanently changed in a way that is even more digital and puts customers entirely in control to shop how they want. Our strategy is to embrace that reality and to lead, not follow. Two, our workforce will need to evolve in a way that meets the needs of customers while still providing more flexible opportunities for our employees. And three, technology is a need and is playing an even more crucial role in people’s lives. And as a result, our purpose to enrich lives through…

Matt Bilunas

Management

Thank you, Corie, and good morning, everyone. Hopefully, you were all able to view our press release this morning with our detailed financial results. Our Q4 revenue was $16.4 billion. Our domestic comparable sales declined 2.1%, and our enterprise comp sales declined 2.3%. Revenue grew 8% versus two years ago. It was only slightly below the low end of our revenue guidance for the quarter due to a few factors. The first factor was inventory availability. We expected to have pockets of inventory constraints as we entered the quarter and called out a few areas, including appliances, gaming and mobile phones. As the quarter progressed, inventory was more constrained than we anticipated within a few categories and brands. These constraints included some high-demand holiday items, and the categories most impacted were mobile phones and computing. The second factor impacting our results was Omicron. The Omicron wave and the resulting high levels of employee callouts led to a temporary reduction in our store hours in January and to start fiscal ‘23. In mid-February, our staffing level started to improve and we increased store operating hours for the majority of our stores. Excluding these two factors, our revenue would have been comfortably in the guidance range we provided for the quarter. From a category standpoint, on a weighted basis the top areas with positive comparable sales growth included appliances, virtual reality, home theater and headphones. We saw comparable sales declines in gaming, mobile phones, tablets and services. Turning now to gross profit. Our non-GAAP gross profit rate decreased 50 basis points to 20.2%. This was about 20 basis points lower than we expected, primarily due to increased proportionality. When comparing to last year, the largest driver was our services category, primarily driven by Totaltech. Our product margins were largely flat to last…

Corie Barry

Management

Thank you so much, Matt. As I noted closing out my Q4 summary, we remain well-positioned as we head into fiscal ‘23. I’d like to expand on this a bit as we highlight our strategic positioning. There are three key points you should take away from this morning. First, technology is a necessity, and we are the unique tech solutions provider for the home. Second, we have built an ecosystem of customer-centric assets, delivering experiences no one else can. And third, we believe our differentiated abilities and ongoing investments in our business will drive compelling financial returns over time. We believe we have the right strategy to deliver growth and value for all stakeholders. And we are excited to go into more detail about our plans. But first, let’s do some level setting. Our purpose is unchanged and more relevant today this minute than ever. Our purpose to enrich lives through technology is enduring, and we have honed our five-year vision. We personalize and humanize technology solutions for every stage of life. Technology is no longer a nice to have, it is a necessity, and it is expanding into all parts of our lives and homes. Working has forever changed. Streaming content has exponentially grown. The metaverse is coming to life. We can power our homes with connected solar panels. Cars are connected. And we can monitor our health, including connecting with the physician from our living room. Every aspect of our lives has changed with technology. And we uniquely know how to make it human in our customers’ homes right for their lives. For example, we will send a consultant to your home for free to optimize the tech you have or have the tech you want. We can repair your phone screen and you can try VR headsets…

Jason Bonfig

Management

Thanks, Corie. Good morning. We continue to lead the tech industry with significant high-share and high-consideration categories. What I mean by a high-consideration category, generally higher ASPs in a longer period of time from when you start to think about purchasing to when you actually purchase. Continuing to grow our share in these large categories like televisions and computing will always be a cornerstone of our strategy. But to be truly there for our customers and all their technology needs, we need to accelerate our share across other areas of technology as well and also some new spaces. This is where Totaltech comes in. Products with lower ASPs and shorter upgrade and consideration cycles, our share is generally lower. Totaltech creates a new value proposition that benefits customers when they consolidate their technology shopping at Best Buy. I want to give three examples of a customer journey that illustrate this point. Let’s start with a customer that actually wants to upgrade their kitchen. They want to buy an entirely new kitchen suite with three pieces. That customer that has Totaltech does not have to worry about delivery and install. It’s included in the price. That could be between $400 and $500 value. A little bit later in the year, the same customer hypothetically breaks their phone. They want to get a new iPhone. When they purchase that iPhone at Best Buy, AppleCare is included. Just in the first year, that’s just under $120 of value. Then a little bit later in the year, they want to get a new pair of wireless headphones. If you purchase those headphones at Best Buy, the warranty is also included and you’re a Totaltech member. That’s a $30 value. Examples like these is where Totaltech benefits come to life for our customers and create…

Jason Bonfig

Management

I’d like to thank our friends at Samsung for that assist in that demo. As we look over the past decade, we’ve had over $12 billion in sales growth with the vast majority coming from large categories like TVs, computing and appliances, and one-third coming from new categories like wearables and VR, just to name a few. As we move forward, that innovation will continue and there will continue to be new categories that don’t even exist today. We’re also looking to accelerate that expansion by entering new categories that are aligned with where our customers want us to be in places where Best Buy can solve real customer pain points. For the next 12 to 24 months, we’ll continue to focus on these five areas of expansion. I’ll go a bit deeper on three of these: fitness and wellness, outdoor living and personal electric transportation, in the next few minutes. I’ll start with fitness and wellness. This is a $34 billion industry that we are uniquely positioned to compete in with our blue shirts, but also our large product fulfillment network that was built for televisions and appliances. Our assortment has grown by 650% in the last 12 months, and we are implementing a larger, more premium experience in 90 stores over the next 18 months with dedicated zones for vendors. Damien will touch on the virtual store a little bit later, but customers today actually have the ability to have a virtual chat or video consultation with a fitness expert. The next area I’d like to talk about is personal electric transportation. This is a $3 billion industry with rapid growth. We’ve introduced 250 new products this holiday with 500 additional accessories around those products. We’ll be adding physical assortment to 900 stores and a more premium experience in 90 stores over the next 18 months. We currently offer assembly, and we’re in the pilot stages of service and support and repair for our customers. The last category I’d like to highlight is outdoor living. This is over a $30 billion industry, and our acquisition of Yardbird, a leading premium outdoor furniture company, provides the ability for us to accelerate this business across a nationwide network. That acquisition, combined with our strength in outdoor television and audio, and new partnerships with leading brands like Traeger, Weber and Bromic, create a comprehensive solution for our customers. When we couple that assortment with our home consultants, and the physical and digital experiences that we’ve developed for customers, this is a really, really fast-moving category that has the ability to grow. You’ll start to see Yardbird products as fast as this spring in Southern California market, and we’re very excited about that. To reiterate, we expect growth from Totaltech, consistent innovation from our vendors, macro trends that I’ve mentioned, new product categories that we don’t even know about yet and five new areas of expansion to move our business forward. Thank you. I’ll hand it back to you, Corie.

Corie Barry

Management

Thanks so much, Jason. Obviously, you are the expert. Back to our second key takeaway. We have built a unique ecosystem of customer-centric assets, delivering experiences that no one else can. Consumer electronics is a distinctive industry. The products are constantly evolving. They’re connected to networks that are constantly evolving. They all use different operating systems, and they range from small and powerful to large and breakable, often at high price points. And customers are more comfortable using tech than they have ever been yet. They also admit it’s likely not doing all it could to make their lives better. Against that backdrop, we have built a unique ecosystem of assets that all work together to create a stickier and more valuable relationship with the customer. And we’re investing in this ecosystem as we pivot against a backdrop of even higher customer expectations. We’ll provide more depth on a number of these assets through the rest of the presentation. So, anchoring this ecosystem is our expert advice and service. Customers are excited about tech and want to be confident in their purchase. We provide that in ways literally no one else can, from our expertly curated assortment to in-home consultations, all the way to tech support when your tech isn’t working the way you want or trade in the recycling when you want to upgrade. And then building on that strength, our Totaltech membership ties these experiences together and provides unique benefits that customers value and no one else can provide. We then combine those unique experiences with our strength in omnichannel retailing, industry-leading and seamless shopping experiences and services across all channels, including in-home, in-store, digitally, remotely and virtually. And finally, all these interactions provide us rich data and insights across customer experiences to create personalized technology solution tailored to the customer-specific technology and needs. And all this data fuels our business, like Best Buy Ads, matching our partners’ marketing to the most appropriate audiences based on our first-party data. When this ecosystem works together, it provides a unique experience tailored to the customer. It also reaches beyond our consumers into business partners, suppliers and other strategic relationships that leverage our capabilities. Whether it’s our consultative services highlighted on partners’ websites or vendors leveraging our in-store pickup to fulfill from their websites, others value our capabilities. So, let me add some color around the first part of the ecosystem. As I said, customers are excited about tech and want to be confident with their purchase, particularly when it’s part of their daily life at home. So, instead of me trying to describe all the parts and pieces to you, I think this video does an excellent job bringing to life the unique ways we provide expert advice and services, seamlessly across all our touch points. [Audio/Video Presentation]

Corie Barry

Management

So again, just to reinforce, there is no one else that can provide this type of immersive experience at scale in a world where more and more of our lives are being lived in a way that requires technology. And we felt it was important to double down on our unique capabilities with an equally unique membership offer. This represents literally years of customer research and innovation and truly puts the customer at the center of our investments. Matt talked earlier about the financial implications of our new membership program. Now, I get to talk about the fun part. Fundamentally, Totaltech is designed to provide our customers complete confidence in their technology, buying it, getting it up and running, enjoying it and fixing it if something goes wrong. Matt and Jason already mentioned some of the benefits. But as a reminder, Totaltech includes product discounts and periodic access to hard-to-get inventory, free delivery and installation, free technical support, extended warranties on products and much more. Because the membership is so comprehensive, it has broad appeal among our customers. There is truly something for everyone. And the benefit that’s most appealing can vary based on a customer’s unique shopping journey or their stage in life. So, let me share some early examples. I say early because as a reminder, we literally just rolled this program nationally in mid-October. The benefits associated with purchasing products like product warranty and member pricing are being leveraged the most. Younger generations are using these benefits, especially AppleCare at a higher rate than older generations. This is exciting and important, as extended warranties as a stand-alone business was definitely not a growing part of our business or strategy. And additionally, it’s exciting that our employees have embraced this offer, realizing the suite of benefits means there…

Damien Harmon

Management

Thank you, Corie. It’s great to be here with you today to talk about our accomplishments and our plans for this year and beyond across our omnichannel portfolio. As Corie mentioned earlier, omnichannel retail is a critical component of our strategic ecosystem. It’s the most direct way to connect our strategy to the needs of our customers and employees. Let’s look at the last two years before we dive into where we’re going. These last two years have challenged our employees in ways we could have never imagined. Powered by our strategic investments, we were able to serve our customers’ needs and grow the business. There are two areas I want to highlight. First, the connection between our online sales, which expanded to 34% of our total domestic revenue and the 150% growth we’ve seen in our virtual interaction across video, chat and voice. Today, 84% of the Best Buy customers use digital channels throughout their shopping journey. These virtual opportunities have created new ways for us to offer customers the immediate ability to shop with an expert wherever they are. Second and also connected to our customers using digital channels throughout their shopping journey is we’ve seen a 72% growth in customers who are using our app while in our stores. This also creates an opportunity for us to build more digital interactions and technology-related solutions to support their needs. These numbers are amazing. We could not be more proud of our teams and how they deliver. Just as importantly, it gives us an incredible foundation for continued growth and optimism as we look to the future. Now from an omnichannel perspective, we look at the combination of customer experience, loyalty plus operating efficiency. The two main drivers of that and what I’m going to talk about today are…

Damien Harmon

Management

As we can see, technology brings it all together in support of our optimized workforce and how our physical locations will enhance the shopping experience inside and outside of our stores. We’re excited about this year and our future as we focus on the combination of customer experience, loyalty plus operating efficiency. Now, I’d like to turn it over to our President of Best Buy Health, Deborah Di Sanzo.

Deborah Di Sanzo

Management

Thank you, Damien. Here is the ecosystem slide Corie and Damien shared, and it’s a perfect introduction to Best Buy Health as our work is an excellent example of the Best Buy ecosystem and flywheel. Today, I will share the strategy of health at Best Buy. But first, let’s see it come to life in this video. [Audio/Video Presentation]

Deborah Di Sanzo

Management

I hope the video begins to answer the question that I hear often, “Why in the world is Best Buy in health?” I understand the question because health is complex. It has a longer return on investment, and other companies have not succeeded. So why will Best Buy succeed? We didn’t build this strategy to be like any other company or to change who Best Buy is. We built our strategy on Best Buy strengths, our world-class omnichannel, distribution and logistics, strong analytics, presence in the home and our empathetic caring center agents. Our strategy is supported by the rapid consumerization of health and two significant trends. First, Technology is moving into health. We recognize an $80 billion market opportunity for health technology and the desire for consumers to use technology to manage their health. And second, health is moving into the home. By 2025, an estimated $265 billion in Medicare services will move into the home, and 61% of patients say they would choose hospital care at home. And Best Buy has long proven we’re a trusted advisor for technology in the home. 70% of the U.S. population lives within 10 miles of a Best Buy store, able to shop health and wellness products, speak with our expert blue shirts and utilize our distribution hubs to fulfill their health technology needs. Geek Squad makes 9 million home visits annually, helping consumers set up technology and perhaps more importantly, teaching them how to use it. And we have the confidence of our customers and partners as we work to help enhance the health industry. Our strategy is to enable care at home, building on the strengths in three focal areas. In consumer health, we provide curated health and wellness products; in active aging, we offer health and safety solutions to…

Matt Bilunas

Management

Thank you, Deborah. You’ve heard details from Corie, Jason, Damien and Deborah about some key areas that give us excitement about the opportunity in front of us. We firmly believe our differentiated capabilities and focused investments will lead to compelling returns over time. While fiscal ‘22 was certainly an amazing year, we see a path to even higher revenue and earnings by fiscal ‘25. And as we look beyond fiscal ‘25, we see even more opportunity for revenue growth and operating income rate expansion as the benefits from our initiatives like Totaltech and Best Buy Health grow even further. Before I share additional details on our fiscal ‘25 targets, I would like to review a few guiding behaviors that have been our brand for several years. First, we plan to fund our growth through the cash we generate and return excess cash to shareholders. Second, we are committed to leveraging cost reductions and efficiencies to help offset investments and pressures in our business. Our current target set at 2019 is to achieve an additional $1 billion in annualized cost reductions and efficiencies by the end of fiscal ‘25. We achieved approximately $200 million during fiscal ‘22, picking our cumulative total to $700 million towards the $1 billion goal. Let me take a moment to reflect on our past performance. We have talked about our record results over the past couple of years, but it is also important to note that we have had very steady growth in the years leading up to the pandemic. This past year was the eighth straight year of comparable sales growth. In addition, we have expanded our operating income rate, earnings per share and ROI. Earlier in the presentation, we shared our fiscal ‘25 targets, so I won’t cover them in detail here, but I’d…

Corie Barry

Management

Thank you so much, Matt. Extraordinary ecosystems have formed over the pass 20, 30, 40 years as digital has transformed every aspect of how we all do business. That same transformation is happening our homes, meaningfully accelerated in the last two years. And while we started as a music retailer, selling fun to have products, we’re now the only company built around the same extraordinary transformation of technology in our lives and in our homes. While others sell some of the same products we do, we alone offered the complete technology solution across manufacturers and operating systems. We are the only company in all channels and at scale that can do everything from design your personalized hardware and software solution in home, to install and connect all of it, to keep it working when there are any issues from unreliable networks to broken screens. These assets appeal not only to our customers but they are also unique and investable for our marketing partners, technology vendors, small business and education relationships and other strategic connections. As we look to the future, we see technology as a permanent and growing need in the home, constantly evolving as the world’s largest companies innovate with new use cases around the metaverse, transportation, green electricity and health, just to name a few. We have a unique value creation opportunity into the future and are investing now as we’ve successfully invested ahead of change in our past to ensure we pivot to meet the needs of our customers and retain our exclusive position in our industry. We are excited to help customers enrich lives through technology in ways no one else can. And with we will break for 10 minutes before beginning our Q&A session. [Break]

Corie Barry

Operator

Welcome back. We are excited to begin the Q&A portion of our event, which we expect to run approximately 45 minutes. But before we do, I want to take this opportunity to introduce and welcome Mark Irvin, our new Chief Supply Chain Officer. Many of you spent time with Rob Bass and may know that he recently announced that he is stepping away from a life in retail to pursue some other passions, as we have been discussing for quite some time. We are so excited for him and thank him for his incredible work on our supply chain transformation. That incredible work extended to his ability to bring in top tier talent. One example of that is Mark Irvin, who came to Best Buy in 2013, specifically to work with and learn from Rob. Mark has been an instrumental part of the team that has led our supply chain transformation and is ready to use his lifetime of knowledge in the space to continue to advance our industry-leading supply chain efforts. We are thrilled to have Mark Irvin taking over the reins in supply chain. And we’ve invited him to join us for Q&A. So, operator, we are now ready for our first question.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, ma’am. Your first question is from the line of Chris Horvers from JP Morgan. Your line is now open. Mr. Chris Horvers, your line is now open. Moving on to the next question, Mr. Simeon Gutman from Morgan Stanley.

Simeon Gutman

Analyst

Hey. Hopefully you can hear me and hopefully my mugshot doesn’t stay on as Chris’s. Okay, great. So, my first question is on the industry outlook. So, you’re effectively saying that the industry will revert or digest in ‘22. And I want to make sure I understand that in ‘23 it starts to grow. Can you talk about why does it grow, why doesn’t this revert for two years, given the consumption growth we’ve had? I assume it’s having to do with the innovation and shorter replacements. But, why doesn’t that begin in ‘24 as opposed to ‘23?

Corie Barry

Operator

Yes, I’ll start and maybe Matt can add some color. I think that what we’re looking at is, as you said, a little bit of a step back in the next year as we lap some of the stimulus. But, I think, there is a number of factors and we outlined some of them in the prepared remarks that we believe will continue to boost the inventory as we head to the other side of next year. So, some of the things that we cited, first of all, you have this real phenomenon where technology is all over our homes, and we are very dependent on that technology and this nesting factor being in our homes is a very sticky behavior. And that’s because secondarily, a lot of what we’re doing is leveraging tech and people are saying they expect to continue to do that, things like streaming or learning or obviously, all of us probably in some way, shape or form, hybrid working. Those are really -- gaming is another great example. Those are really sticky behaviors that we continue to expect to see over time. And not only that, now you’ve got 2 times as many connected devices in the home as you had two years ago. So, you have this proliferation of devices. And because the innovation cycles are continuing to ramp, we’re also seeing in most of our key categories that replacement cycle already start to shorten. We could literally see it in the last two years in our customers that replacement cycle is shortening. And so, while we think there’s a bit of a step back next year, all of this massive interest in the industry, the new ways that people are using technology, the innovations that are happening in spaces like metaverse or some of the things that Jason talked about in his prepared remarks, all of those, we believe, start to create that ramp as we get on the other side of a little bit step back in the next year.

Simeon Gutman

Analyst

Okay. And maybe as a follow-up to Totaltech, this will just have a couple of pieces, but I promise it’s all Totaltech related. Any quantification of the impact to the EBIT or EBIT dollars in ‘22 or fiscal ‘23? Can you share what you think or expecting or modeling for renewal for year one of Totaltech? And then, you mentioned you’re seeing 20% lift in some of the early sign-ups. Is there a danger or risk you’re basing that off of the period of very good consumption when there was stimulus money hanging around. So, how are you confident that’s a good level to think about going forward?

Corie Barry

Operator

Yes. I’ll start maybe and then Matt can talk a little bit about the EBIT. On the renewal, we haven’t come out with renewal rates. The good news is they continue to be in line with our expectations. So, we’re happy with what we’re seeing from a renewal perspective, but we do want to give that a bit of time. I think to your second question around the period of time that we’re using. First, we’ve been overt in saying it is a short period of time. We just rolled this out in October, but we wanted to at least give some color on what we’re seeing. Second, while you’re right, this is a unique period of time, we’re comparing it against a control group in the same period of time. So all of the behaviors that we comparing -- because what we’re looking at in that 20% lift is a lift in people who purchased and are using Totaltech versus those who would not or had not purchased it. And so, you’ve got a comparative group there. So, both behaviors in theory should be different. But still, it’s holiday, like we’ve said, it’s a short period of time. We wanted to give the initial color, and then we’ll keep watching that as we go through the next year, obviously.

Matt Bilunas

Management

Sure. And maybe just to adjust the overall impact to EBIT next year, we talked about the OI rate being at 5.4% and last year ended at 6%. That decline is mostly coming from our gross profit rate decline. And the majority of that gross profit rate decline has been -- is due to the Totaltech membership rollout. As you know, we launched the membership in Q3 -- at the end of Q3 last year, and we don’t cycle that until Q3 of next year, FY23. So, that majority of that gross profit decline is coming from the Totaltech launch, to give you a general size of the impact.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Chris Horvers from JP Morgan.

Chris Horvers

Analyst

Thank you. Clearly, I need some Totaltech support there. So, I guess, my first question is a bit of a follow-up. You talked about a 2% to 4% CAGR over the next three years. If you’re down at the midpoint, it looks like you’re embedding, if -- check my math, roughly like a 5% comp in the out two years. And if you look back 2015 and 2019, you sort of did a 3%. So, a two-part question is, first, what drives the confidence in that? And then, the second part of it is, are you assuming share gains in core categories, like PC and TV? And to what extent is the contributor from these new opportunity categories that you’ve talked about?

Matt Bilunas

Management

Yes. Thanks, Chris. Yes. So essentially, you’re right that roughly, as we think about our path to FY25, FY23, we talked about it being down as the industry is assumed to be in the low single digits to mid single digits. As you move to FY25, that would assume a higher pace of growth in those couple of years, not necessarily being linear, but a little higher pace of growth than we have historically. What gives us confidence in the ability to do that is a lot of the initiatives that you heard today. So, we’ve outlined a number of things, Totaltech changes to our stores, expanding our assortment, growing into Best Buy Health. Those things give us confidence in being able to accelerate our sales as we look out past FY23. What’s assumed in that number as well is essentially, we would expect to still modestly gain share on a baseline of our business but then be able to accelerate our share growth with these initiatives that we talked about and then expand our markets with the items that Jason shared and also Best Buy Health as well.

Chris Horvers

Analyst

Understood. And then, my follow-up question is any further cadence commentary on the top line? Obviously, you got a couple of years of stimulus here in the first quarter. Is it fair to think that 1Q is the low point in the year? And if you hit the midpoint of the range, or is your expectation that in the fourth quarter you could flip to the positive?

Matt Bilunas

Management

Yes. So, what we outlined was a minus 1 to minus 4 comp for FY23. We also talked about how the weight of that decline is in the first half of the year. So, you could assume that something maybe towards the bottom end of that range for -- or a little worse on first half of this year. So, you could imagine any number of outcomes as you look at the back half.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Karen Short from Barclays.

Karen Short

Analyst

[Technical Difficulty] these other elements that are going to flow into the P&L. But wondering if you could talk a little bit about what you think the actual four-wall margin structure will do in the time period from today until fiscal ‘25. And then, I had one other follow-up.

Matt Bilunas

Management

Yes. I’m not sure I caught the entirety of the first part of that question. But, in terms of the store four-wall operating rate in the future. We would expect to continue to find efficiencies in our store operating. Damien outlined a number of things that we’re doing. It’s also important to know that the store is connected to the broadness of how our whole business works from an omnichannel perspective, whether it’s the store, our digital presence, our chat or virtual sales that we’re now engaging in. So, we’re always going to find ways to create efficiencies. Obviously, there are some levels of inflation in fixed costs within our stores that we’re always choosing to navigate, but we would expect that there’s still opportunities for us to continue to drive a better outcome on the store side from a profitability standpoint.

Corie Barry

Operator

Karen, I just want to underscore, it is incredibly difficult for us to separate the performance of the stores from digital performance from what Matt was alluding to virtual and call. And if you think about Q4 alone, 65%ish of what we sold online was either picked up in stores. That was about 45%, or shipped from a store. That was about 20%. And so, when you have that amount of crossover, literally -- I mean, it’s the best example of like true omnichannel behaviors with our customers. Piecing those things apart is incredibly difficult. Understand, what we’re trying to do, to Matt’s point, is really build in effectiveness and efficiency across those. So, you create those real frictionless experiences for customers. You have both the convenience, but you also have that amazing experience when they want it.

Karen Short

Analyst

No. That’s helpful. And then, I’m just curious, with respect to the Charlotte test, any color or metrics you can give on the overall margin, I guess, and/or sales lift in that store? I realize that there’s a decline in sales floor square footage. But, any timeline on unrolling that out to other markets?

Corie Barry

Operator

Yes. I’ll start and maybe Damien can add some color. We aren’t yet providing any of the metrics on performance. And that’s because it still is, A, relatively new, and B, this is how a bunch of stores are working together. And I just want to underscore back to the first question that you asked. The beautiful thing about Charlotte is we’re really trying to say, what do our stores need to do in the future. Obviously, our online penetration has doubled in the last two years. And that means the role of the store is different. The store is incredibly important. It showcases all the experiences. It is the cornerstone for convenience. And as Matt said in the prepared remarks, more than 99% of our stores are cash flow positive. So, in and of itself, the stores are amazing experiential moments with our customers. And we know that the role of the store will continue to evolve. And what we want to make clear with Charlotte is this is a market now with the same quantity of stores before and after. But, you have 24% less selling square footage, 100% more warehousing and fulfillment and an overall reduction in square footage of 9% in the market. But, you also have consultants going into home. You have more access points than ever, and you cover the market, about 41% of it, with employee delivery. And so, what you’re trying to do is create a bigger draw in the market for more customers because you just have all these different experiences. Damien, I don’t know if you have anything you want to add?

Damien Harmon

Management

The only thing I would add is, traditionally, we’ve looked at one store at a time and how that particular store can create an experience for a customer. Now, you’re looking at the full portfolio, all of our assets in a particular geography, and you’re finding ways to be able to navigate that customer experience and what they’re expecting across a multitude of different experiences. I think, that’s what’s really important is, we’ve never done that before because it’s been in each individual store. Now being able to say across a 15,000 or 25,000 or a 35,000 square-foot store in an outlet experience and our consultation labor, we can take care of that customers’ needs across the board, and our teams are working across the stores. Our teams are working across different customer expectations and really delivering a unique experience in that marketplace. And we’re continuing to learn over time, and then we’ll apply that as we see what’s working best for us or what’s not.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Greg Melich from Evercore ISI.

Greg Melich

Analyst

I guess, I’d like to start on understanding a little bit more about the pricing commentary that you made in your outlook for the next couple of years. And if we look at just average unit size versus number of transactions last year, could you give us that? And then, help us understand as you get that 2% to 4% comp, how much of it do you expect from ASP as opposed to transactions?

Matt Bilunas

Management

Sure, I can start and then Corie can jump in, too. If I look just outward towards our FY25 goals, we talked about how we’ll always need to be price competitive in our business. So, that is fundamental to how our consumers want to interact with us and to the market. And so, we’ll always make the right decisions to be price competitive and create value for them. If I think about what happened this last quarter in terms of ASPs and units and transactions and thus last year, on a year-over-year basis, a lot of our growth and most of our growth is coming from ASP increases, which was coming from a couple of different avenues. So, premium mix is up. That’s the majority of our ASP increases. Secondly, we have some pricing increases from what we’ve been seeing from inflation, but the majority is that premium mix. Transactions and traffic were down in the quarter, as you would imagine from a sales -- the sales decline. But it’s important to note, too, if you look all the way back into our history, ASPs have been increasing year after year after year. There’s an interesting dynamic happening in our organics, which can distort the view of organics in total. We’ve been seeing actually unit and transaction growth and ASP growth in our higher ASP areas like computing and appliances and televisions. Where we’re seeing the unit declines and transaction is on the very low ASP items, things that have been shifting over to the digital mediums like gaming software or music or movies. And so, that’s what’s creating some of the dynamic on the units and transactions. So, we really like the fact that our units and our ASPs are growing in those areas where we can really create a better experience for our customers in totality. I think, you addressed next year. Next year, I think we don’t plan our business based on ASPs and units and transactions. We would continue to expect, though, that as our business shifts and we start -- you see our Totaltech offers and our better experiences start to take hold that our ASP and our premium mix would continue to grow and provide a better solution overall, but also be able to add in some of those lower ASP items as we continue to create a better experience holistically.

Greg Melich

Analyst

Great. I’d love to follow up on that a little bit on the Best Buy Advertising. Is that more of a revenue opportunity or a margin opportunity? And how important is it? Is that basically selling ads to current vendors, or are there opportunities more broadly?

Corie Barry

Operator

Yes. I’ll start. I think that there are broad opportunities in the Best Buy Ads business. Obviously, we have what we would call audiences or kind of suites of customers and information about those customers that’s certainly very valuable to our vendors, which is where we over-index right now but can be more valuable broadly to other partners who might be looking for potential consumers who have the kind of same look and feel as our consumer base. And so, while we start kind of near in with those who really understand this unique customer that we have and the unique knowledge we have with that customer, everything from service interactions to purchase interactions to how they decide to use the approximately, all of these are important behavioral points that are important, not just to our vendors, but ultimately, probably to a wider swath of partners. I don’t know if you want to hit on how the financials.

Matt Bilunas

Management

Sure. The Best Buy Ads business, for now, it’s -- most of that’s coming through our current vendors. And when that’s the case, what it does, it actually drives margin rate is recorded as an offset to cost of sales. So overall, when you take that in addition to the SG&A required to drive it, it does create an OI rate positive experience for us, but it is more of a rate offset in margin. To the extent we drive more sales with people that aren’t our vendors and we go outside of our ecosystem, that actually would then show up into revenue in the future.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Anthony Chukumba from Loop Capital Markets.

Anthony Chukumba

Analyst

First thing I wanted to clarify is that picture is not a catfishing situation that I actually do look very similar to that right now as we speak. So, I just wanted to clear that up. But, in terms of my actual questions, I guess, you mentioned that the promotional -- promotions did increase year-over-year. And obviously, that’s kind of a -- it sounds like it’s a sort of end of pandemic type of normalization to some extent. I guess, my first question is, I guess, were promotional levels relative to the fourth quarter, I guess, 2020?

Matt Bilunas

Management

Yes. I’ll start and maybe Jason can jump in after that. Compared to FY20, some of our categories actually did start to get close to or back to FY20 levels in Q4. So, there were places we saw more promotionality in Q4 on a year-over-year basis and as it relates back to ‘20 where things like computing, headphones and wearables and even TV started to get back to levels close to FY20. And so that’s where we’ve been seeing some of the more promotions in this last quarter. We actually saw computing start to be more promotional on a yearly basis back in Q3. So, that’s where we’re starting to see. And you’re right, as we look to FY23, we would expect more and more categories to start to return to more normal FY20 levels based on how inventory starts to flow. There are some still inventory things we’re watching in terms of the chipsets and some supply constraints. But as inventory starts to normalize and get into next year for more categories, we would expect more of them to return to levels closer to FY20.

Anthony Chukumba

Analyst

Got it. That’s helpful. And then, just a quick follow-up. And you talked a little bit about this in the press release. Just even directionally, what was the impact from, I guess, supply chain issues, product availability issues on your fourth quarter results? And what do you expect the impact to be, even just directionally on your F 2023 guidance?

Matt Bilunas

Management

Yes. We did see some pressure from freight warehousing in Q4. It wasn’t as material as some of the other things we’ve talked about. So, we are seeing higher rates come through just the transportation and carrier mix of what we’re having to supply. It was offset a little bit by a parcel reduction. So overall, there was a little bit more pressure in Q4. As you think about next year, we are expecting to see freight warehousing continue to be a pressure as we continue to move through the year, not as material as some other things that we’ve laid out, but it would be something that we’re going to continue to navigate over the next number of quarters.

Corie Barry

Operator

And Anthony, I think the other part of your question was around the inventory levels that we saw in Q4. And we haven’t sized it specifically, but I think it’s fair to say we would have been healthy in our range, had we not had some of those very targeted -- and again, I want to be clear. They’re very targeted inventory constraints that were just a bit larger than we thought. And I think we expect to see some of those continue into, especially the first half of next year and again in a more targeted way. But our overall inventory situation, I think that’s some of what you’re seeing in the promotional environment, our overall inventory situation is very healthy. I mean, they are year up 6%, 15% versus two years ago. So, it’s just these pockets where we’ve seen more demand, so that’s good, but a little bit more constrained than we were expecting.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Michael Lasser from UBS.

Michael Lasser

Analyst

Best Buy has a long history of doing what it says it’s going to do, setting realistic expectations and then following through on those expectations. If you do get some feedback or there is sentiment coming out of this event, it might be that you set really aggressive targets over the next few years, especially on the profitability side to put some perspective around that. The midpoint of the 6.3% to 6.8% operating margin expectation would be 50 basis points better than what Best Buy’s ever done in the past, and that was during a pandemic. And get to the midpoint, Best Buy will be able to achieve 50 basis points of annual operating margin in fiscal ‘24 and fiscal ‘25, whereas prior to the pandemic, it was generating about 20 basis points of annual operating margin expansion. So, as you look out, what’s changed about the model to make it more -- that much more profitable than Best Buy has been in the past? Is it really healthcare, advertising? You’ve been able to master the profitability of the online business? And as part of that, could you talk about the contribution from Totaltech, Best Buy Ads, Best Buy Health and cost reductions inefficiencies, would they all equally contribute to the profitability expectations a couple of years from now?

Matt Bilunas

Management

Sure. I’ll take that from a couple of different angles, Michael. First, I’d say, over the last couple of years, this team you see on the camera, everyone in the building and the field have been doing amazing job just navigating and accelerating a number of the strategies to lift our business and improve the profitability over the last couple of years managing through the pandemic. There is certainly a number of things we’ve changed about our operating model that has allowed us to navigate very easily through store channel to an omnichannel to now a virtual channel and the chat situation. So, the team has done an amazing job just finding ways to efficiently operate this business, and that’s helping us drive profitability now and as we look forward. And we’ll continue to do that. As you look to the out years in terms of profitability, we have been -- we’ve been talking about investments in areas like health and technology. And now we’re talking about investing in our stores. All those things are intended to pay back, not just payback from a sales perspective, but also continue to improve from a rate and an operating dollar and an operating rate perspective as well. So, they are, as we’ve laid out in our materials, ways we’re going to help expand our rate from FY23 up to the range of 6.3% to 6.8% in FY25. We believe those initiatives will help generate more profit -- being more accretive over time. And at the same time, we’ll keep working hard to make -- create the efficiencies in our stores and navigate through the different channels very seamlessly. We’ll never stop trying to find those improvements. And this team has been hard at work doing that.

Corie Barry

Operator

Michael, I think you have stacked -- and you actually nailed and laid out a lot of them. But you have this kind of stacked quantity of things that both have happened and that we’re investing in. I mean, we have tremendously more scale than we had just two years ago with $8 billion added to the top line. And obviously, that -- majority all coming through are digital experiences. So, we’ve navigated a massive change in the composition of our business. Under that, we’ve also created material efficiency and effectiveness because I think it’s really important to note, we also noted in prepared remarks, in Q4, we saw some of our best NPS results, particularly on the in-store side of things, our teams are doing incredible work garnering skills. 80% of our associates have more than one skill, which allows us to move this labor really flexibly and allows really interesting career paths. So, you’ve got scale, you’ve got a really efficient and effective model that now has moved through this changing dynamic. And then, we’re layering on top distinct initiatives that we have expectations around return. Totaltech being one, the ads business being another, the health business that we’re investing in for our future, the store experience side of things, all of these. We are using behavioral history that we’re seeing in our customers to help us predict how we think this model looks in the future. And I would just underscore what Matt said, I give the team a great deal of credit for choosing to double down on these investments now because we do think this is what unlocks exponential growth for us as we head into the future.

Michael Lasser

Analyst

That’s helpful perspective. My follow-up question is, embedded in your guidance for the next couple of years is it looks like a mid-single-digit comp for the domestic business. If it proves that it’s more like a 3% top line growth for the domestic business from 2024 and 2025, can you still get to the 6.3% to 6.8% operating margin, or should we think more like a 6% operating margin in that scenario?

Matt Bilunas

Management

Yes. Certainly, the ranges we gave from a revenue and OI perspective have those ranges on all the initiatives and various components of our plan. So, we would continue to strive for those targets that we gave for operating rate income, despite maybe coming at the bottom end of that scale. There’s obviously a range when come to the initiatives, but also just the work in our baseline or business to create efficiency. So, we would continue to target that even if it was towards the lower end. But obviously, we’re going to make the right decisions for the long term. So, we’ll always choose to invest as we need to along the way.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Scott Mushkin from R5 Capital.

Scott Mushkin

Analyst

So, getting to the margin, I was wondering if you could give us like cadence. Obviously, you’re going to be down to the -- this year but then sharply up in ‘24 and ‘25. I mean, is it balanced between those two years, or is it mostly expected in ‘25, the improvements?

Matt Bilunas

Management

Yes. So, we haven’t given the numbers for FY24. So, obviously, we’re giving us up a little bit of flexibility in how we get to the FY25 goals, not just in terms of the lines of P&L, but even the years as well. We would expect to see improvements each year, if you will, the general size is we haven’t actually sized for anyone, but we wouldn’t expect to see improvements as we progress in each of the years going forward.

Scott Mushkin

Analyst

Okay. And then, my second question is, obviously, on the revenue side, there’s some pretty ambitious targets. I think, Michael was talking about that a second ago. But, I was wondering, you’re obviously attacking new areas and new categories. When you think about the comp, how much is coming from those new areas? And how much is it increasing your addressable market? I know you threw $300 million out there. But, is your market now actually going to be bigger than that as you attack new areas for the business?

Matt Bilunas

Management

Yes. We didn’t size the -- expanding our assortment within the numbers. We gave some indication for some of the other areas that if you go from the mid-range of FY23 to FY25, that’s about $5 billion. Totaltech was $1.5 billion of that number, and that includes the cannibalization of the standalone services and offerings that we have. We also talked about how health is at $525 million today and that we’re going to grow at a high CAGR rate over the next number of years that would indicate that by FY25, it’s about $900 million of growth, too. So we’re breaking those parts out. What’s left is what we would expect to expand in our -- from our categories and our physical assets. So, we would expect those to provide some meaningful growth as well as the other items.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Peter Keith from Piper Sandler.

Peter Keith

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I’ll also echo a great presentation today. First question I had was just around Best Buy Health. We’ve been talking about this, I feel like for about five years. So, it seems like we’re making some progress. But I was wondering if you could also kind of look back in terms of what hasn’t worked that you’ve learned and discontinued versus what you’re leaning into more aggressively as you see future opportunity.

Corie Barry

Operator

Maybe I’ll start with a little bit of context, and then I’ll ask Deborah to come in since she came in partway through the journey. I think it’s maybe not as much about what -- maybe what didn’t perform as well. I think it’s what we’re learning about a consumer that has changed a great deal, particularly in the last two years. So, some of those early hypotheses we had around health moving into the home, around people wanting to age in their homes with technology, I think those hypotheses were actually exponentially sped up over the last couple of years. And, we started to see some new use cases around virtual care in particular. So, I think, we felt like we were pointed in the right direction even three, four years ago. It’s just that the consumer behaviors have really changed in the last two years, having gone through the pandemic. And now we’re refining our focus a bit so that we really target where the industry is going. Maybe Deborah, you could add some color.

Deborah Di Sanzo

Management

Corie, I think you pretty much covered most of it. I think I would just say, in the active aging space, we -- people will continue to actively age in their home, live independently in their home. If you think about it, we target -- consumers are 65 years and older, and these consumers like -- actually, they like a physical store experience. So, that in the past couple of years, when our stores were closed, we couldn’t go in. We couldn’t see the phones. We couldn’t see the personal emergency response devices. We really saw that pick up, though, in Q4 of this year. So, we are very optimistic about that market. And I just want to emphasize what Corie said, again, really in the pandemic, consumers thoughts of digital health changed dramatically. In the health technology space for about a decade, people have been talking about the consumerization of healthcare, but the pandemic really brought the consumerization of health care. So, now consumers want to take care of themselves and their family in their home 365 days a year. They do it with technology, and they need help with that technology. And I think that with Best Buy enabling them to connect with their physician, helping them with their technology is really what’s driving our optimism in the market.

Peter Keith

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. Maybe another question, I would want to pivot over to Jason on some of the macro and product trends. Here again, 5G, we’ve been talking about for a couple of years. It seems like it’s starting to come to life; metaverse, maybe a couple of years out. Could you bring those to life for us a little bit more in terms of types of products you would expect to sell and how you might be involved from a services implementation as we think about product cycles in these areas?

Jason Bonfig

Management

Thanks for the question. 5G, I think you’re going to continue to see happen at more of a market level. So, it will be almost a rolling change as it hits the individual markets and the potential for that additional speed is unlocked with customers. That shows up not only in products, but it also just shows up in the ability to make more connected products, the expansion into things like tablets, watches, laptops to really take advantage of that faster connection. The other area is metaverse is very, very much alive, and we’re seeing the trends with our customers. When we look at VR, our VR business grew double year-over-year in Q4, but actually also for the entire fiscal year of FY22, showing the customer interest in wanting to experience the metaverse, want to try some of the different things from a virtual reality perspective. And the amount of products and the amount of customers just will continue to evolve as they find more and more ways to take advantage of the technology that’s going to just continue to expand experiences for customers and the ability to plug into these new networks and new experiences as we move forward.

Corie Barry

Operator

And Peter, to your question about services, this is so interesting. Because what we’re seeing is this really high level of interest and yet confusion around what it is and what I do. I just read a survey that said that 70% of consumers age 65 and older want to try VR experiences, but aren’t even sure exactly where to start. And so, sometimes this is consulting services in the home. But sometimes this is as simple as having that wide array of products from all of the vendors and just being willing to help people kind of dabble into, whether it’s metaverse or 5G, which becomes really relevant as we’re talking about getting out of our homes actually, and being on the go and being able to game and work and learn on the go. So, I think for us, this is long continuum, all the way from coming to the store and we can just help you understand what this is, all the way to, now I have twice as many conducted devices in my home. I want to learn how to leverage a 5G network and maybe get off Wi-Fi. How do I do all of that? And I think over time that -- again, from our unique point of view, that’s where we can be helpful to the consumer.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Zack Fadem from Wells Fargo.

Zack Fadem

Analyst

Can you help us bridge the gap from your current gross margin profile of 25.5? And help us understand what’s embedded in the 6.5% EBIT margin target? And specifically, could you walk us through the expected Totaltech drag in 2023? How that’s expected to normalize? And how we should think about the other moving parts mixing around new categories and promo, et cetera?

Matt Bilunas

Management

Sure. So overall, for FY23, we’ve talked about how the majority of that step back is -- in operating rate is driven by the Totaltech launch that we did in FY22. And so, we cycle that at the end. And so, what’s essentially happening is the -- what used to be higher services gross profit rate is now being impacted by the launch of Totaltech, which is a much more complete offer. So, it includes product warranties, installation, things like that. So, the gross -- services gross profit rate is coming down, if you will. What we’re doing though is driving more members much faster than we did in our previous service membership and driving more product incremental sales. The standalone offer is actually profitable on its own but we’re navigating this period of time where we’re cycling a different services offer and also building and scaling the incremental sales of the offer itself. So all that takes some time, and we’re not necessarily pointed towards a gross profit rate or an SG&A rate. We’re looking at driving OI rate over time and OI rate dollars over time. And so, we haven’t given guidance over that period from FY25 because we’re obviously going to give our self a little bit of flexibility as we navigate a very new offer in Totaltech as we understand just the incrementality and the frequency, but also just the usage. So, we haven’t given those -- the breakouts of the different. We will also expect gross profit expansion in other areas, though. So, health has a very healthy gross profit rate. Best Buy Ads also has the ability to drive gross profit rates. There are things that help us mitigate what might come from a lower services gross profit rate in the future.

Zack Fadem

Analyst

And on that OI rate expansion from 5.4 to 6.5 in 2025, it suggests a 100 basis-point improvement over a two-year period. Is it fair to assume that that will be evenly distributed in ‘24 and ‘25, or are there certain drivers or initiatives that are more weighted towards the front or back end?

Matt Bilunas

Management

Yes. We haven’t given the -- we’re not going to give the exact breakout by initiative. But all of them are contributing to that OI rate expansion from ‘23 to the targets we gave for FY25. There are a lot of moving parts. But each of them, the initiatives of health and Best Buy -- or Totaltech as well as Ads, those are all contributing to the growth in the operating income rate.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Scot Ciccarelli from Truist Securities.

Scot Ciccarelli

Analyst

So, I had a healthcare follow-up. I think in response to Peter’s question, you guys were talking about an acceleration of consumer need for aging employees, et cetera. But I think your business has actually ramped slower than expected. So, what do you think the impediments have been to faster adoption? Is it the value equation? Is it an awareness issue, et cetera? And then, what can you do to accelerate the adoption of your healthcare services?

Deborah Di Sanzo

Management

Scot, thank you. Thanks so much. I’ll take that. So, think about it this way. First of all, the health presentation that we presented today is a bit different than the strategy that you saw previously. So, this is really one strategic area, three focal points,, taking advantage of the rapid consumerization of healthcare, which did really not exist before two years ago. Second, we continue with active aging. People still do want to live healthy and happy and independently in their homes. And the third area of virtual care is also an era which essentially did not exist before the pandemic. Now hospitals want to have hospital home programs. They want to take care of helping people get better in their homes where they are surrounded by loved ones and feel comfortable. And so, hospitals all over the country are really putting in hospital at home programs, putting in chronic disease management programs. These are growth areas that did not exist before. Our focus before was in active aging. And as I said in my prior remarks, those are consumers 65 years and older and for our products, so the active aging products, they really appreciated a physical store experience. And so, when we had different hours in the last 21 months, when we had some store closures, it did impact the active aging business. But we see it now really -- we had a very strong Q4, and we see that continuing.

Scot Ciccarelli

Analyst

Okay. Thanks. And then, a quick housekeeping item. Matt, given the economics of the Totaltech program, if membership actually grows faster than expected, does it take longer to kind of shift in the profitability mode?

Matt Bilunas

Management

Not necessarily. The growth in membership is indicative of the value of the offer, the interactions that they want to have with us. And so, we would see membership revenue grow, but also to the extent that members are growing, the incremental product sales that they would grow, would grow with that. So, it wouldn’t necessarily impact the pace at which we could actually drive profitability.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Steven Forbes from Guggenheim.

Steven Forbes

Analyst

I wanted to start with customer relationships event, maybe a topic from the last Analyst Day. So, Corie, if you can, really, if you frame where we are with those events across the various interactions and provide some high-level insight on how the relationship events over the past two years have or maybe amplify the business strategy that you laid out, supporting the upwardly revised targets?

Corie Barry

Operator

Yes. So, if you go back to two, three -- two years ago, 2019, we talked about specifically these customer relationship events. And at the time, if you recall, we underscored things like using the app and having the app. We underscored at that point, Total Tech Support, which we’ve now evolved into Totaltech obviously. We underscored customers who shop in multiple categories. They were like specific events that people who use our financial services. There were specific events that we were looking at that we said, when customers interact with us in this way, we tend to keep them in our ecosystem; they tend to spend more; they tend to be those more loyal customers. You can imagine, over the last two years, the good news is we have seen some acceleration in those type of events. We’ve seen more app downloads. We’re seeing a 72% increase in people using the app when they’re in our stores, great. That’s a great data point. We’re seeing to what Matt just said, more people take up the Totaltech offering than we were seeing in total tech support, although that was still growing over the last couple of years. We’re seeing more -- we just saw a whole bunch of new customers, and we’re seeing those customers shop us in multiple categories. So, we’re seeing that grow. I think you can see in the presentation that we gave today, it is still very important for us to continue to drive those customer -- deep customer relationships. And we’re continuing to evolve how we see those interactions that are most important to those longer-term relationships and almost every strategy that we underscore today, whether it is what Damien talked about in terms of our more experiential stores, or whether it is Totaltech or whether it is a relationship with patient or someone we’re helping to provide help for, all of those are the types of relationships that keep customers stickier to the brand. And given we talked a little bit, our frequency is a little bit lower than you can imagine, someone who has grocery or someone who has consumables. And so, this idea of increasing the frequency, staying relevant in the selection is really important to us. And that’s, I think, what you can see all of the strategy is geared around those deeper and more prevalent customer relationships.

Steven Forbes

Analyst

That’s helpful. And then, just a quick follow-up as we revisit the holistic market approach. Just curious what sort of incorporated around that strategy over the next two or three years in those longer-term targets that you laid out?

Matt Bilunas

Management

The holistic?

Corie Barry

Operator

The markets. So, when Matt was talking about the capital guides that we kind of gave, you could see some of that increase in capital. At some point, we’re assuming, and Damien talked specifically about the experiential stores, there probably will be some other store concepts that we may choose to roll. But, what I want to say is we’ve been very clear that the Charlotte market is a pilot, and we mean that. Sometimes people say pilot and then they fully know exactly everything they’re going to roll from there. It is a pilot. We are learning from it. And we assume that at some point, we will continue to roll pieces of that model. But, we’re not yet ready to say this is exactly the concepts, exactly how many and exactly in what markets.

Matt Bilunas

Management

Sorry for the confusion there. Yes, we would assume there are some revenue impact and profitability impact from the broad work on our store portfolio, namely the experiential store rollouts that we’re doing. And as we continue to look at the market approach, any other changes, we would include that into the revenue outcome as well.

Operator

Operator

Your last question is from the line of Liz Suzuki from Bank of America.

Liz Suzuki

Analyst

Just a short-term one on the comp guidance. I guess, since two-year growth rates are starting to get thrown off by the start of COVID two years ago, do you think we should be looking at three-year growth rates as we think about the cadence of quarterly comp?

Matt Bilunas

Management

Yes. It’s increasingly difficult to look at two years and three-year stacks of growth rates. I think, the best guidance for us would be if you look at the next year’s guide of 1% to 4% and think about the first half versus back half. The first half is going to see a bigger weighted sales decline just based on the 37 comp we did in Q1 last year and then the 20 comp in Q2. How that works out exactly -- it won’t necessarily be even from a three-year perspective or a two-year perspective. But if you think about a first half, back half for next year is probably the easiest way. And then, think about the overall guide of 1% to 4% and how that -- where they may land in that order.

Liz Suzuki

Analyst

Got you. And then, I guess, just to that point on kind of three-year growth rate. I mean, the implication from the guidance would suggest some reacceleration from the fourth quarter exit rate. So, can you quantify the impact of Omicron and the inventory shortages on that fourth quarter comp, and if you consider those sales to have been lost permanently?

Matt Bilunas

Management

Yes. We didn’t quantify it. What we said is we believe we would have been pretty safely in the range of our revenue performance in Q4 if we hadn’t had to reduce our store hours and if we had seen the level of inventory in certain products and categories that we were expecting. Some of that wouldn’t necessarily be lost because people find that people do come back to us after maybe an attempt that they couldn’t or if the product wasn’t available. So, it isn’t necessarily lost as you look into next year, but we do believe we would have been pretty safely in the range of revenue, had those two factors not happened.

Corie Barry

Operator

Thank you so much. And with that, we will actually wrap today’s investor event. And on behalf of our panelists and all of Best Buy, it has been our pleasure to share our progress with you, and we genuinely thank you for taking the time and all of your questions. Have a great rest of your day.