Earnings Labs

BCE Inc. (BCE)

Q4 2021 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 3, 2022

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Q4 2021 Results and 2022 Financial Guidance Conference Call and Webcast. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Richard Bengian. Please go ahead sir.

Richard Bengian

Management

Thank you, Mo and good morning to all. With me here today are Mirko Bibic, BCE's President and CEO; and our CFO, Glen LeBlanc. Our Head of Investor Relations, Thane Fotopoulos couldn't be here because he recently had an eye surgery that prevented him from hosting today's conference call, but he will be back next quarter. You can find all of Q4 -- all of our Q4 disclosure documents on the Investor Relations page of the bce.ca website which were posted this morning. We have a lot of material to get through this morning. However, before we begin, I would like to draw your attention to the Safe Harbor statement reminding you that today's slide presentation and remarks made during the call will include forward-looking information and therefore, are subject to risks and uncertainties. Results could differ materially. We disclaim any obligation to update forward-looking statements except as required by law. Please refer to the company's publicly filed documents for more details on assumptions and risks. With that I'll now hand over the call to Mirko.

Mirko Bibic

President and CEO

Thank you, Richard and good morning everyone. We had another successful year at Bell. As we continue to execute on our purpose which is to advance how Canadians connect with each other and the world. A laser-focus on our key strategic imperatives enabled us to deliver for all our stakeholders over the past year and remains the foundation for Bell's future success. With the right strategic roadmap for future growth and a clear near-term tactical plan for every part of our business, the Bell team delivered positive results across all operating segments in 2021 hitting the sweet spot between market share growth and financial performance. We achieved our objective of steadily improving results each quarter since Q2 of 2020 and in fact, we're now essentially at 2019 levels having reached approximately 99% of pre-COVID consolidated revenue and adjusted EBITDA in 2021. We not only met but we actually surpassed our upsized network expansion targets for 2021 delivering approximately 1.1 million new locations equipped with either direct fiber or wireless home internet connections. And we expanded mobile 5G coverage to more than 70% of Canadians as we also successfully secured $2.1 billion worth of critical 3.5-gigahertz spectrum. Notably, I'm pleased to report that we effectively completed our Wireless Home Internet buildout program for the benefit of hundreds of rural communities having now reached our one million household target one year earlier than originally planned. This is a testament to the exceptional work of the Bell Network team local government cooperation and supportive regulatory policies. In our wireless segment, we remain focused on growing high-value postpaid mobile phone subscribers, managing customer churn, and delivering industry-leading service revenue growth and profitability. Total mobile phone postpaid net adds in 2021 nearly doubled year-over-year to 301,706 driving service revenue growth of 4% and 5% higher…

Glen LeBlanc

CFO

Thank you, Mirko and good morning everyone. As Mirko said, Q4 capped off a great year in our COVID recovery, with a healthy 3% increase in service revenue, driven by continued strong Wireless residential Internet and media growth. Total revenue was up a more modest 1.8% due to lower year-over-year product revenue, reflecting COVID-related softness in business data equipment sales and mobile device transactions. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA growth slowed to 1.1% in Q4. As I signaled on our Q3 call in November, this result was anticipated, given the resetting of Bell Media's TV programming and broadcast rights costs to a more normal pre-COVID run rate. Net earnings decreased 29.4% as a result -- as our result in Q4 of 2022 included a one-time gain realized as you will recall on the divestiture of our data centers. Similarly, adjusted EPS was down 6.2% this quarter to $0.76 due to a favorable tax adjustments recognized last year, again, related to the sale of data centers. Capital expenditures remained elevated in Q4 at $1.46 billion as we advance spending consistent with our two-year CapEx program, Mirko just detailed. Despite substantial capital spending this quarter, free cash flow increased year-over-year due to timing-related decreases in cash taxes and interest payments on Bell Canada MTN debt. Let's turn to Bell Wireless financials on slide 10. Another stand-out performance that led national peers once again with service revenue and EBITDA that surpassed pre-pandemic 2019 levels for a second consecutive quarter. Service revenue grew a strong 6.3%, our best quarterly result in four years. This was achieved even as roaming remained below pre-pandemic volumes, reflecting the successful execution of our strategy to grow high-value mobile phone subscribers and effectively manage the decline in data overage revenue, as we move postpaid customers to higher-tier unlimited plans to take…

Richard Bengian

Operator

Thanks, Glen. Given the volume of information we presented this morning, I'm sensitive to the time we have left. So before we start the Q&A period, I'd like to ask you to limit yourselves to one question and a brief follow-up if you must so that we can get to as many in the queue as possible. Thanks for your cooperation. With that Mod, we are ready to take our first question.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Jeff Fan from Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Jeff Fan

Analyst · Scotiabank. Please go ahead

Thank you. Good morning, everybody, and thanks for all the color. I think the question for me is on the network investments. And you gave so much color for 2022, so probably other questions relate to 2022. So I want to look beyond 2022 if I may. And I know you don't have any guidance for that. But if I look at your network around seven million is fiber-to-the-home. So that's roughly 70% of your targeted footprint by the end of this year. Mirko, where does that go if you look beyond 2022? Is there any need to go at the same pace? How do you think about that? And then also the one million Wireless Home Internet footprint. Is that where you like to end, or is there overbuild? Can you just talk a little bit around that? And I guess the related question is what that means for CapEx? Glen made some comments about using perhaps pension holiday or funding holiday to help fund this investment. Perhaps you can wrap it around what that means for CapEx beyond 2022. Thank you.

Mirko Bibic

President and CEO

Thank you, Jeff. Thanks for the question for sure. I'm going to start off with -- the first part of my answer will be something you fully expect but very important to say. Our focus right now is on the two-year program that we are in the second year of. So I guided last year to two years of CapEx. And right now the focus is on delivering on up to 900,000 additional fiber homes and they will get us to those percentages that you mentioned. But I do need to highlight that that's the focus right now. But you asked a fair question. So, as we're focused on 2022 and as the year progresses, we will continually look at the situation. And we're going to base our future build-out plans on factors that include our broadband success and it's going really well so far. Our overall financial situation, which continues to improve from the kind of the depths of Q2 2020 and also the availability of government subsidies. So, those will be the things we look at as we get ready for 2023 CapEx and beyond. And Glen mentioned and you highlighted it Jeff, we have a very real $1 billion in free cash flow opportunity over the next five years due to the reduced pension funding. And that was not in my calculus when we announced the two-year program at this time last year and that will provide us with flexibility to seize on some strategic opportunities. So, ultimately -- and we're going to have flexibility on our capital allocation strategy. So yeah, we will be 80% done on the 10 million targeted broadband footprint, but that's not 100% done. So those are the factors we'll look at. We have more flexibility on the allocation strategy than I expected a year ago at this time. So that's all great news. And on Wireless Home Internet, I think, 1 million footprint, I mean, I'm really happy that we did that a year earlier than planned. It's great for the communities we're serving. I think that's the right footprint.

Jeff Fan

Analyst · Scotiabank. Please go ahead

That's great. Thank you for the answer and kudos for the pension team.

Mirko Bibic

President and CEO

Ready for the next question.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Drew McReynolds from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Drew McReynolds

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Yes, thanks so much and good morning. Jeff stole my question. So I'll move on here. Mirko just maybe a bigger picture one on the Internet market. And you kind of alluded to in your last comment on fixed wireless. Just I think, obviously, investors see what's going on with the competitive environment in the US and trying to draw conclusions here in Canada. With respect to the competitive intensity in the Internet market the fiber that's being deployed, the fixed wireless that's being deployed, the satellite broadband that's coming into play. Just can you give us kind of your sense of how this plays out in the next two to three years in terms of just managing the risk of higher competitive intensity? And then just second just a clarification for you Glen on the pension holiday. Often to see it -- does this kind of expire after five years, or are you just kind of saying look illustratively over the next five years we get the $200 million benefit each year and that equates to $1 billion, but not necessarily kind of concluding anything beyond kind of year five. Thank you.

Mirko Bibic

President and CEO

Thanks Drew. I'll start. So Glen will give you a more detailed answer, but the short answer is fiber can't be beat. And I think investors in Bell ought to be optimistic about that. Yes, so because fiber can't be beat and because consumers and businesses continue to choose fiber over other technologies, it may result in periods of time of some competitive intensity particularly as COVID subsides. But we'll be ready, because we're focused on delivering a healthy balance of volume tier mix price is kind of again that sweet spot between market share and financial performance. And we've got lots of runway ahead of us. So first we -- fiber is better than the other technologies. We have runway ahead of us in terms of more fiber build. In fact as we sit here today against some of our larger competitors, we have 50% fiber overlap with their network footprint. So to me that's a big positive in terms of looking ahead at what's next. And then I look ahead even -- not even that far out and I referenced it in my opening remarks as we enter into a multi-gig world, and it's coming and it's coming soon. I like the advantages we have. Our network is multi-gig ready. And when I say multi-gig I mean multi-gig symmetrical up and down. I don't think anyone should underestimate the importance of upload speeds both for consumers and for businesses. We've got -- we're future-proofed on the capacity in our network. We got no powered field components to maintain. We don't have to recapture spectrum. We don't have to swap out modems in the homes served by a node in order to deliver higher speeds. So there might be an uptick in promotional intensity at particular periods of time Drew. But when you think about the franchise we've got, we're well set up to win the household. And to win the household you want, fiber, 5G, best in-home WiFi and compelling content. So we've got the right asset mix and we'll just continue to execute.

Glen LeBlanc

CFO

Thanks Mirko. Good morning, Drew. It's Glen. I'll jump in and give some color -- additional color on pension. You and I have been talking about this for a decade, but to think the burden that the pension has placed on our cash flow over the years and the requirement to do special funding. As Jeff said, kudos to our pension team. We didn't get here by accident. This has been a 10-year journey and a remarkable job of managing the pension when we followed an asset mix glide path that had us move from significantly higher equities to a point now where we're at more than 70% in fixed income and 30% in equities. And even amongst those equities a much smaller portion of those in public. So we find ourselves from 2023 -- or excuse me, 2013 to today moving from an interest rate coverage of 40% to 84%, which has given us a tremendous opportunity. And all of that occurs, while interest rates really haven't moved. So I would say, we'd all on this call expect that there'll be some increase in interest rates, which will only add to this opportunity. So, today – and we wanted to announce that we're in a very confident position that we see a sizable pension contribution holidays to the tune of $200 million a year for the foreseeable future. And I define foreseeable future as five years. There's no magic to that Drew. Could that be longer? I certainly hope so. You know, how the math works is that you have to stay above 105%. And I think our pension team's track record speaks for itself. I hope I'm here in five years telling you that it's going for longer. Thank you, Drew.

Drew McReynolds

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Yes. Thank you, both.

Richard Bengian

Operator

Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Aravinda Galappatthige from Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.

Aravinda Galappatthige

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. My main question is for you Mirko on the enterprise side. I mean, when I hear some of the comments you made about sort of new initiatives on the IoT front as well as even some of the SaaS initiatives that you talked about. Can you just give us a sense of that growth segment within enterprise? I mean, where are we in terms of that piece sort of assuming a level of materiality that it can kind of really move the needle to the aggregated number? I mean, historically, you've thought of enterprise is kind of a drag on Bell and maybe it's going to be the case for a little bit longer as well. But as we try to look beyond 2022 and some of the 5G-driven offerings become more material can you sort of a picture as to what and how that can what that can look like? And are we getting closer to that time line where that materiality develops? And then a quick follow-up for Glen, on the guidance the 2% to 5% EBITDA maybe slightly wider than I would have anticipated sort of given a particular sort of the strong sub trends in Wireline and obviously really good service revenues in wireless. I was wondering, why – I was wondering, if you can give a little bit color as to sort of that – the size of that range and particularly in terms of EBITDA? Thanks.

Glen LeBlanc

CFO

Good morning, Aravinda, just to remind you that the guidance range we provided in calendar 2021 was 2% to 5% in revenue and the same on EBITDA. We expanded revenue only because of the comments I made earlier in the volatility of product revenues and we remained consistent on EBITDA 2% to 5%. And an organization that generates in excess of $10 billion a year on EBITDA, and I actually do not see that as an overly broad range. I think, if you look back historically, the last decade we traditionally had a range of approximately 2%. But this organization has grown materially in size from where we were a decade ago with the acquisitions we made and the growth we've enjoyed. So I think 2% to 5% is a very reasonable range consistent to that of 2021. And our objective will be to deliver solidly within that range and I'm confident we will.

Mirko Bibic

President and CEO

Thanks, Glen. So thanks for the question Aravinda. On your first question around the enterprise side and those new revenues. Look, I – the enterprise side and to some degree – well not to some degree the enterprise – the business whether it's small or enterprise there's been a COVID impact for sure. So in last year and this year, the focus really is on managing those impacts, while never losing sight of the importance of being ready to capture the growth in the segments you identified whether or not it's 5G MEC, IoT that kind of solution spending. So what I like about what we're doing is, those building blocks every quarter keep getting more powerful. And I did refer this morning to Bell IoT Smart Connect, and I hinted at cold chain monitoring. Just as an example one of our clients, who is using the platform is a long-haul frozen seafood transporter and they're using the platform to increase visibility into their operations make sure they're compliant with food safety regulations reduce spoilage. And what I think is particularly powerful about our platform is it's a Software-as-a-Service platform. It's not a simple point solution that basic providers can offer and it will operate across multiple verticals. So I mean, are we there yet where there's a significant increases in those markets? No. Do we have line of sight into them? Absolutely, yes. Do we have clients? Yes. So I expect that to grow. When it becomes material, I think 2022 will still be a learning in the initial stages of growth, but we're going to continue to put the platforms in place to be ready. Our IoT business, I think I mentioned that the last quarter is already a nine figure revenue business. So pretty sizable in its own right already. So that's where the focus is. We're well positioned. And last word, just if you look in the here and now actually in kind of Q4 of 2021, it was our enterprise segment's best quarterly service revenue performance of 2021. And we're seeing some customer spending come back on cloud and IoT service solutions and we saw 5% growth in that revenue in Q4 of 2021 compared to Q4 2020. So I'm optimistic. But in terms of the fundamental point of your question it's still to come.

Aravinda Galappatthige

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead

Thank you.

Richard Bengian

Operator

Next question please.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Vince Valentini from TD Securities. Please go ahead.

Vince Valentini

Analyst · TD Securities. Please go ahead

Thanks very much. I wanted to try to unpack the 91% figure that you noted is quite impressive and I would agree in terms of the percentage of your subs on fiber. But just to make sure you didn't say fixed wireless in that as well. You're just saying fiber. So if you indulge me, let me walk through these numbers make sure you and Glen agree. You're 7.2 million total fiber plus Wireless Home Internet homes passed. So it would mean 6.2 million fiber-to-the-home passings at this point out of your total footprint of -- urban footprint of 10 million or just over 10 million. So that would mean, 61% of your homes are passed by fiber, but yet 91% of the subs that take Internet and IPTV are around that footprint. Do I have all that math right?

Mirko Bibic

President and CEO

Yeah. So it's -- you've got it right. So it's 61% today, 61% of the near-term -- so let's back up. So our near-term planned broadband footprint, by near-term, I mean between now and say 2025, okay well we're near to medium term if you prefer. We've got kind of 10 million that's in that planned footprint over that time horizon. We're 61% done today with fiber. 71%, 72% done at the end of this year with fiber. For those customers who are on -- in the fiber footprint and who take Internet and TV, 91% of those are on fiber.

Vince Valentini

Analyst · TD Securities. Please go ahead

Right. Which means the number of combined Internet and TV customers you have in your non-fiber footprint is quite low. Is that's what you're trying to emphasize that you -- the incremental risk of losing those subs until you've upgraded is pretty small?

Mirko Bibic

President and CEO

No. I'm not -- so really what I'm trying to emphasize, but let's go there. So clearly, where we have fiber we're outperforming. And if you kind of take our footprint from Manitoba all the way to Atlantic Canada and you see our impressive Internet net adds. We are gaining significant share in fiber. And depending on the state of our non-fiber footprint whether or not it's ATM or FTTN et cetera there are puts and takes there in terms of the performance, but that's a function of the network technology. What I'm saying -- what I'm -- so that's one point which I think is what you're getting at. What I'm trying to emphasize with the 91% is we are well positioned to really beginning -- to really begin leaning in on copper decommissioning, particularly in the residential segment. So I think 2022 is the year where you see us pick up the pace on decommissioning and positioning -- to position ourselves for a clear multiyear road map on that front.

Vince Valentini

Analyst · TD Securities. Please go ahead

Glad I clarified that. Thanks for emphasizing. And if I can just on fixed wireless just one follow-up question. You obviously have a great head start and kudos to getting to one million homes passed already and I think you're doing pretty well on sub ads in those regions. Good for society, but also good for your business. But other players seem to be now wanting to get into that space. Can you talk a little bit about how you protect that customer base, how sticky they are? Are there contracts used for these customers, or do they have significant upfront equipment or install costs that might act as a barrier to them switching?

Mirko Bibic

President and CEO

Look I'll put up our Wireless Home Internet product against anyone. So I think ultimately, it's going to be a function of the network quality, the speeds that you offer and the customer service that you offer along with it. So -- and the fact that we're there in areas where -- in those areas where we were there first because there's no one else. I think the first-mover advantage is critical. And there are some areas, in that one million household footprint Vince, where we actually weren't first. There might have been another competitor there smaller cable competitor, for example. So being third or fourth in the market is going to be really difficult. So in those areas we're taking share but we were second to market. We may be offering faster speeds. Being third fourth, is going to be tough. So I think really, it's first-mover advantage. It's the kind of credibility you buy with the community by having connected that community and it's the customer service and the quality of the network. So, that package is what's going to allow us to continue to win.

Vince Valentini

Analyst · TD Securities. Please go ahead

Fair enough. Thank you.

Mirko Bibic

President and CEO

We have time for one last question.

Operator

Operator

It’s perfect. And the last question is from Simon Flannery from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Simon Flannery

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Great. Thank you very much. Good morning. Another strong quarter on the wireless side continue to have a really good momentum year-over-year. I'd love to unpack the outlook for 2022. How are you thinking about the overall wireless opportunity and the snapback from COVID population growth household formation market share, in that -- in the guidance assumption? Do you think we continue at similar levels to 2022, or is there some certain concern in the US about a kind of a deceleration after some very good quarters? Any color there about what's driving the industry growth and your growth and how sustainable that is?

Mirko Bibic

President and CEO

Okay. Great question. I'll take it and I'll take it kind of in two stages. So first just industry-wide. I think it's -- I mean it's looking like a strong balance Q4 across the industry so based on the results that have been released so far. And I see some good growth and strong upside for the industry because of immigration, reopening to more customary levels in Canada, the roaming upside that we're seeing since November that's kind of holding. I think supply chain issues should begin to ease in the second half of the year. I think the store constraints -- it's not quite as constrained as it was a year ago. And I think, kind of the restrictions we're in now will begin to ease. So I think industry-wide that's looking fairly good. Now, I think it's worth mentioning where we sit competitively within that. And you see it in our strong service revenue growth and our ARPU growth. And we know why in our case there's the mobile phone strategy focusing on high-quality smartphone loadings. But it's more than that, right? Because we have -- within the mobile phone strategy, we're focused on premium brand premium network within the mobile phone strategy. And I think that's driving our results. And in Q4, we had heavy year-over-year growth on the Bell brand. And I think that's important. If you look at our 6.3% service revenue growth the majority of that came from organic performance not roaming, which is also quite positive. And I mean I'll leave you with this thought everyone. The launch of the new plans this week the unlimited Ultimate plans. We got -- I really want to highlight those because this is how we're going to differentiate 4G from 5G and highlight our network superiority. So you kind of differentiate prepaid from postpaid. You want to differentiate flanker from your premium brand, and then you want to differentiate your 4G from your 5G services. So now with unlimited Ultimate we have the bigger data, the buckets, the higher video quality. We're including content and on the content it's great mobile, so we're paying ourselves essentially. So now you start to showcase the incremental capabilities of 5G, and you encourage people to up-tier to move up their rate plan curve, as I said in my opening remarks. And I think that's a good tailwind for 5G momentum in the wireless segment particularly for vulnerability.

Simon Flannery

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Thank you.

Richard Bengian

Operator

Thanks again for your participation on the call this morning. We'll be available throughout the day for any follow-up questions or clarifications. Have a good rest of the day.

Mirko Bibic

President and CEO

Thank you.

Glen LeBlanc

CFO

Thank you, everyone.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time and we thank you for your participation.