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Banco de Chile (BCH)

Q2 2014 Earnings Call· Sun, Aug 3, 2014

$36.72

-2.75%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning everyone and welcome to the Banco de Chile’s second quarter 2014 results conference call. If you need a copy of the press release issued last Wednesday, it is available on the company’s website at www.bancochile.cl. Today with us we have Mr. Rodrigo Aravena, Chief Economist and Senior VP of Institutional Relations, Mr. Pablo Mejia, Head of Investor Relations, and Daniel Galarce, Head of Research, and also Victoria Gabens, Investor Relations. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this call is being recorded and information discussed today may include forward-looking statements regarding the company’s financial and operating performance. All projections are subject to risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially. Please refer to the detailed notes in the company’s press release regarding the forward-looking statements. I will now turn the call over to Ms. Victoria Gabens. Please go ahead, ma’am.

Victoria Gabens

Investor Relations

Good morning. It's a pleasure for me to share with you our comments on Banco de Chile's second quarter 2014 financial results. Please turn to Slide number 2. To begin, we will discuss the developments in the economic environment, and the results of the banking industry followed by a review of Banco de Chile's results. Please turn to Slide number 3 which contains the economic highlights. Looking back at the first quarter, Chile posted a weak 2.6% annual GDP expansion after recording a 2.7% growth in the previous quarter. As a result, the activity has been at a slower pace since the fourth quarter of 2013. Following the trends seen in previous quarters, the slowdown was led mainly by the 5% annual construction and gross fixed investment that followed the 12.3% construction in the previous quarter. This is a consequence of the very weak growth in machinery and equipment investment. On the other hand, private consumption posted a healthy 3.7% growth, due partly to tight labor conditions given that the unemployment rate was 6.4% in the moving quarter ending in May. The good news, however, is the reduction in the current account deficits, as a consequence of both lower investment and import growth. Particularly the deficit decreased to 1.2% of GDP in the first quarter of 2014, reducing the 12 months rolling deficit to 3.1% from 3.4% in 2013. Total recent figures suggest that this below trend growth will remain until the third quarter of 2014 as some leading indicators such as consumer and business confidence have continued to be subdued. However we expect the recent weakness in the exchange rate and the late effects of the expansionary monetary policy to lead a recovery as of the fourth quarter of 2014. In this context, we expect economic growth to increase…

Pablo Mejia

Head of Investor Relations

Thanks, Victoria. Please turn to the next Slide number 6. Here you can see a snapshot of Banco de Chile’s main income statement figure. To begin, operating income increased in the second quarter 2014 by 20% when compared to the same period last year. This strong year-on-year increase was due to a variety of factors which will be explained on the following slide. Please turn to Slide number 7. On this slide, we present the breakdown of operating revenues which is composed of interest income from loans and deposits, fees from non-customer income which is mainly related to income from activity such as funding and gapping, trading and available for sale securities. Similar to what occurred in the first quarter of 2014, part of this increase in operating income is – in the second quarter of 2014, distributable to non-customer income in particular to the management of our UF structural gap as inflation was up 1.8% this quarter versus deflation of 0.1% recorded a year earlier. Also, but to a less degree, the increase in net interest income was due to the average volume growth of our loan portfolio which grew 8% year on year with stable lending spread and our ability to maintain the contributions coming from DDAs almost flat despite the strong increase in overnight rate by successfully growing average volumes of DDAs by 14% year on year. . Additionally, income was further enhanced by expected treasury activities, which improved funding as a result of re-pricing of short term liabilities in line with the decrease of the overnight rates and the more steeply sloped yield curve which allowed us to benefit from term gapping. The positive effect allowed us to deal with the negative exchange rate effect on operating revenues of roughly Ch$5 billion pesos given by a…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Chris Delgado with JP Morgan. Chris Delgado – JP Morgan: I just have a quick question relating to net interest margin. Given that inflation in Chile has started to normalize, how do you guys see your net interest margin and your NII growth evolving over the rest of the year?

Pablo Mejia

Head of Investor Relations

Hi Chris, can you repeat the last part, I cannot – Chris Delgado – JP Morgan: Yeah, no worries. I just wanted to get a sense of how your see your net interest margin and your net interest income growth evolving over the end of the year given normalizing inflation in Chile.

Pablo Mejia

Head of Investor Relations

What I can say is that for the net interest margin, there’s factors that are pushing margins up and there’s other factors that are pushing margins down. You can see that – there is higher risk obviously which is associated with the complications or the more difficult economy which is pushing margins up because we always look to maintain an adequate relationship between risk and return. On another hand, what you mentioned – inflation is pushing net interest margins down for the second half of the year because we are expecting obviously a lower inflation rate than we have experienced in the first half of this year. So that together with the lower overnight rate which will reduce the margins we receive from DDAs or currency time [ph] deposits, we’re expecting something for net interest margins above obviously what we thought in 2013 which is 4.7% but obviously below the 5.2% that we posted this first half of the year principally due to the high inflation. So based on our current base scenario, we should end the year the net interest margin for the 12 months period of around 5%. Chris Delgado – JP Morgan: And then just one follow-up question on that. As you mentioned, the economy overall in Chile is slowing down, you’ve seen loan growth kind of taper. Could you just remind us what your loan growth is -- expectation is for the full year?

Pablo Mejia

Head of Investor Relations

[indiscernible] dynamism in the economy growth has been weaker, if we look at the commercial loan portfolio, the total portfolio grew around 3.9% and if we only look at the wholesale it grew around 3%. The slower growth has been the result of taking more prudent steps in terms of our risk and return policies in order to have criteria which is more adequate with the current economic scenario. So we're always looking at having an adequate risk and return relationship. Also part of this slower loan growth that we saw in the commercial loans, is due to some short term loans that came due during the first half of the year. But also there is some good news. We’ve been growing strongly in terms of retail loans. If we look at retail loans, including SMEs, the growth has been 12%, so the mix has been changing a little bit. And we think for the remainder of the year we should grow in line or above the market in all products which we are looking at about 8% in nominal terms, 7%, 8%.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jose Barria with Bank of America. Jose Barria – Bank of America/Merrill Lynch: Very quickly on provisions, just want to address the Ch$10 billion in counter-cyclical provisions that you took this quarter. Was this something that you guys did to take advantage of the high gains coming from the inflation-linked income, or is this something that we might be seeing on a more recurring basis going forward in the second half of the year considering that the economic outlook continues to be relatively weak?

Pablo Mejia

Head of Investor Relations

For the counter-cyclical provisions that we took this quarter, normally this is a decision that’s made at the board level. So the board generally reviews this at least annually, and in this case, they decided based on the current economic cycle and maybe what could happen in the future, that was Ch$10 billion – that was in additional provisions. It’s important to mention that these are fairly [ph] segment industry or customer in particular, the more provisions for when the economy is going well, to be used during times that there is a more negative cycle. So it’s not based on what you were mentioning earlier. Jose Barria – Bank of America/Merrill Lynch: So we shouldn’t just assume that you'll be taking -- you'll be booking more on counter-cyclical provisions going forward necessarily. It's basically based on that case by case review of the situation.

Pablo Mejia

Head of Investor Relations

No, it’s based at the board level, and looking more on medium term, not on a medium term – so necessarily – this doesn’t mean necessarily that there is more this year. We can’t rule out anything but it doesn’t necessarily mean there will be more provisions for this year. Jose Barria – Bank of America/Merrill Lynch: And looking at your coverage ratio, I did notice that it came down. I mean it’s still pretty high at 190 or 191 relative to peers. That's still pretty good. But it did come down from close to 200 in the first quarter. Are you guys working with any target on reserve coverage or any special that you feel comfortable at or is this level still very high and therefore we could see it come down?

Pablo Mejia

Head of Investor Relations

The coverage ratio, we don’t have a target for coverage ratio, it’s a product of our provisioning models and how we believe – basically our provisioning models for individuals and for companies. In terms of the reason why the coverage ratio dropped below this quarter, you have to remember that commercial loans don’t necessarily follow the provisions in terms of overdue book. So generally you analyze larger companies as a case by case basis and then this quarter, you saw that maybe in the prior quarters we provisioned these customers but those loans they come overdue and in this quarter the loans came out overdue, and that’s the reason why the coverage risk overdue is below that. And you also have to take into consideration that the coverage ratio doesn’t account for additional provisions that you increase this figure around 0.4 times over past due.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Thiago Batista with Itau BBA. Thiago Batista – Itau BBA: Hi Pablo. Thanks for the opportunity. I have basically one question. Actually one question and one follow-up. The question is regarding the NPL ratio. How are you expecting to see the trend of the NPL ratio during the second half And also in '15, I know that you were stating in the press release that you have a positive view on this, but could you comment a little bit more on the NPL ratio evolution? And the follow-up on loan growth, how much do you believe the loan portfolio can grow in '15?

Pablo Mejia

Head of Investor Relations

In terms of NPLs, well NPLs have – for this first half of the year, they have increased similarly in both companies and individuals. And they’re both basically very in line with the weaker economy. It’s important to note, like I mentioned earlier, that commercial loans don’t necessarily follow the provision charges for corporate customers. Because we review these customers on a case by case basis. In terms of the retail loan book, it all really depends on the outlook for the economy and what actually happens. Our base economic scenario is that the economy will grow around 2%, 2.5% for this year and unemployment rate of about 7%. So extreme changes – we are not expecting. For next year, we look at 3.5% GDP growth for the economy which could have maybe a better outlook, once we get closer to the end of the year, when – after certain policies are implemented and we see investment picks up again, which is an important factor for growth. And for loan growth, [actually for] Chile, we will also have something around 2 times GDP growth, so taking that into consideration you should think for 2015 a GDP loan growth in nominal terms around 10%.

Operator

Operator

This concludes the question and answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the floor back to Banco de Chile for any closing remarks.

Pablo Mejia

Head of Investor Relations

Thank you for the questions and thank you for listening and participating in our conference call for the quarter. We look forward to sharing with you our next quarter’s results. Have a good day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today’s presentation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. And have a nice day.