Christopher DelOrefice
Analyst · Bank of America.
Just one other frame for everyone because I know you're all navigating. Things have changed a lot from the start of the year to where we are. And when you think of that through the lens of BD, there's really been 2 key things that have changed, one kind of a macro factor, right? When we started our initial guide and talked about what the year would be like we were contemplating pretty significant outsized inflation. As the year progressed, whether it be the conflict in Ukraine and Russia, the COVID China shutdown, the complexity only grew. Inflation grew, as I noted earlier on the call. And the supply chain complexity increased. So again, about a 50% increase on what we originally contemplated about a 100 basis point headwind. Then when you think of what's happened from BD. Our initial guide, when you kind of restate everything for embecta, we were at 6%. We're sitting here at 9% at the midpoint, right? That's 300 basis points or about $0.5 billion. So with more complexity, we've actually strengthened our growth profile and overcome all of those headwinds. And then I know there's a lot of puts and takes quarter-to-quarter. Obviously, there was also on the revenue side. Outsized COVID testing, we benefited from. That took our number up $300 million. But when you look at the EPS drop-through, it was north of $0.60 from the beginning of the year, inclusive of absorbing FX headwinds. And when you look at that then and think of what we've done from a margin standpoint, we've delivered exactly what we can actually slightly above our commitment. So we absorbed $100 million -- 100 basis points of headwind on the cost side, delivered outside performance as we've headed through the year on top line and fully held our margin commitment both on the base and EPS. So I know there's lots of puts and takes as you go through the quarter. Even tax as an example, when you restate our guide for the initial tax, it would have been 13% to 14% ex embecta. We're now 13.5% to 14%. So we know we had some onetime timing items in this quarter, but we're actually absorbing tax pressure as well in those numbers. So you'll have a Q4 true-up, of course, given the timing here. But we're not even benefiting there as you think of kind of updating. So it's been a very strong year. We're really proud of what everyone has done, our 75,000 employees navigating the complexity during this time and feel good about the momentum we have going into next year.