Soren W. Schroder - Bunge Ltd.
Management
Well, crush margins in China have been volatile again this year, but less volatile than they were in the previous years. It feels like the industry is sort of settling in, stabilizing a bit, but below our expectations, call it an average margin between $15 and $20 a ton is probably about right, and that's about where we are now. So it's less than we would have liked. It's better than it was. It's more stable. And domestic meal demand in China is off the charts. I think it's up between 10% and 12% this year, which is good for utilization rates of Chinese crush, and a lot of it, of course, has come because of the ban or the – yeah, the ban basically on imported DDGSs, which meant that protein needs have to be fulfilled by soybean meal, and that led to the domestic increase in meal consumption and a dramatic increase in soybean imports. It's a big, big step-up in soybean imports from China this year, which in a way also went against origin crushing that they competed with domestic crush plants. So you had a bit of both, DDGS backing up in the world market, slowing soybean meal trade down, and then increased competition for soybeans at the same time. So net-net, it was a good thing for domestic Chinese crush, but it was negative for everything outside of China. What impact increased domestic – ethanol production China will have, I mean, I guess depends on how quickly they ramp up production of ethanol. I think the intent appears to be ethanol production to solve the corn surplus, whether that is a long-term viable strategy or not remains to be seen. But it is an effective way of reducing the corn surplus, and that will have a negative impact on soybean meal demand, which most likely means that growth rates for soybean meal will slow down and if it happens. It's still not happened, but if it happens. And what that would mean is a reduction in the growth of soybean imports, which all else equal would be a big benefit to the origins to Brazil, to the U.S., to Argentina, where there will be less competition for beans for domestic crush and exported products. So, ethanol is probably a negative to Chinese crush margins, but a net positive to everything outside.