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BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI)

Q3 2008 Earnings Call· Fri, Oct 24, 2008

$37.45

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Transcript

Analysts

Management

Jeff Farmer- Jefferies & Co. Bryann with Redbush Morgan Lynne Collier Brad Ludington – KeyBanc Capital Markets David Tarantino – Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. Sharon Zackfia –William Blair & Company, LLC Anton Brenner – Roth Capital Partners LLC Matthew Difrisco - Oppenheimer & Co. Analyst for Destin Tompkins – Morgan, Keegan & Company, Inc. Welcome to the BJ's Restaurants Incorporated third quarter 2008 results conference call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Mr. Jerry Deitchle, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

Jerry Deitchle

Management

Thanks, Operator, and hello, everybody. I am Jerry Deitchle with BJ's Restaurants and welcome to our quarterly investor conference call, which we are also broadcasting live over the Internet. Joining me on the call today are Greg Levin, our Executive VP and Chief Financial Officer and Greg Lynds, our Executive VP and Chief Development Officer. Our agenda for the call for today will be as follows: first I will provide a brief business and operational overview for the third quarter and next Greg Lynds will comment on the status of our new restaurant development pipeline and then Greg Levin will comment on our consolidated income statement or summary balance sheet and our liquidity position as of the end of the third quarter. After that, we will be happy to answer your questions. Diane Scott, our Director of Corporate Relations is out traveling on business today so Greg Levin has volunteered to provide our standard cautionary disclosure with respect to forward-looking statements. Greg, go ahead.

Greg Levin

Management

Alright, thanks Gerry. I will remind everyone today that our comments on the conference call will contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by forward-looking statements. Investors are cautioned that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and that undue reliance should not be placed on such statements. Our forward-looking statements speak only as of today's date, October 23, 2008. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements or to make any other forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless required to do so by the securities laws. Investors are referred to the full discussion of risks and uncertainties associated with forward-looking statements contained in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Jerry

Jerry Deitchle

Management

Thanks, Greg. After the market close today, BJ’s Restaurants released financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2008 that ended on September 30, 2008. If you have not had the chance to see our press release today you can see it on our website at www.bjsrestaurants.com. I think we all know that most consumer businesses continue to feel the impact of a slowing economy and all of the related financial and economic issues that we hear and read about everyday so we are not going to spend much time reiterating the obvious on our call today. While we are very fortunate that BJ’s has a large number of loyal guests and our topline performance is certainly not immune to all of these issues. However, we do believe that in our segment of the restaurant industry and the casual dining segment, BJ’s continues to perform relatively well compared to most of our similarly situated competitors in terms of size, scope of operations, available resources and geographical concentration. And while it is clear that the economic downturn is certainly taking its toll on some of casual dining companies in terms of damaging their vital organs, so to speak, we believe that not only at BJ’s vital organs are in great shape today, they are gradually becoming even stronger overtime. We consider our vital organs to be the overall quality and differentiation of our restaurants, the overall approachability and relevance of our restaurants for the consumer and, most importantly, the quality and spirit of the men and women that operate our restaurants. So, our fundamental strategy remains pretty straightforward that we intend to continue to capitalize on the competitive strengths of our vital organs here at BJ’s and we continue to position our business to gain additional market share going forward. We…

Gregory Lynds

Management

Thanks, Jerry and good afternoon everyone. As Jerry mentioned earlier, our development team has worked hard this year to successfully achieve our previously stated development targets to grow our total restaurant operating list by 20% to 25% and open as many as 15 restaurants evenly spaced throughout the year. To date in 2008, we have opened 13 successful restaurants. In the third quarter just ended, we opened six restaurants. The Peoria, Arizona opened on July 4. On July 21, we opened San Antonio, Texas; Tukwila, Washington, that is outside of Seattle opened on July 25; Pearland, Texas just outside of Houston opened on the July 28; in Modesto on August 4 and our last opening of the third quarter was at the right end of Southern California in the city of Chino Hills and that opened on September 29. So far in the fourth quarter, we have opened our Tacoma, Washington restaurant and we opened that on October 13 and we have two more planned openings in the fourth quarter, both the restaurants are under construction and should open before the Thanksgiving Holidays. These restaurants are both in our home quarter at California and one from the city of Newark which is just outside of the Bay Area, San Francisco bay area and one is in Chula Vista, California which is a suburb of San Diego. We are very pleased with the sales of the restaurants that we opened in the third quarter. Our restaurant in Seattle had a record-breaking first day of sales for any new BJ's restaurant outside our California home court and is still performing very well and the last two restaurants we opened in the third quarter and the depths down in Chino Hills have achieved initial sales volume as well in excess of our expectations.…

Jerry Deitchle

Management

Thanks, Greg. As we note in our press release today that we still believe very strongly that BJ's economics and very sound and they certainly support a continued steady pace of new restaurant expansion and we also think that our currently estimated 2009 growth rate of 15% to 18% in total operating weeks is pretty darn respectable in this environment. On the whole light of our new restaurant and government program has always been triple A quality locations with premier cotenants that create maximum consumer synergy and we strongly believe that delivering a high quality are a line on each of our new restaurants serves our long term interest better in opening new restaurants just for the sake of maintaining a certain growth rate particularly in the slowing economy. Greg mentioned that we have internal process of carefully underwriting new restaurants one at a time, it is a very effective process and we are going to maintain that internal discipline to let that process work exactly the way it was intended to work. There are certainly not in the American site in America in general that support our longer term growth but as a result of the slowing economy, there are less high quality sites available in the trade areas where we want to develop during the next couple of years that will best leverage our supply chain and our real supervision infrastructure. So, if we are going to have to choose between quality and quantity in a restaurant expansion plan particularly during a slowing economy, we are always going to choose quality and we can only grow as much as the operating environment is going to allow us to grow and it is very, very important to grow with quality because quality facilitates dependability, it facilitates predictability and I think those are two pretty important considerations for investing in restaurants. So, now I am going to turn the call over the Greg Levin, our CFO for his comments. Greg?

Gregory Levin

Management

Thanks, Jerry. We will take a couple of minutes here and I will go through some of the highlights for the third quarter and provide some forward-looking commentary for the remainder of 2008 and really some preliminary commentary for 2009. As Jerry has previously noted, total revenues for BJ's third quarter of 2008 increased approximately 19% to approximately $95.8 million from $80.3 million in the prior year's comparable quarters. This increase is a result of approximately 23% more operating weeks, offset by a decrease in our weekly sales average of about 3% and this decrease in our weekly sales average of about 3% is inclusive of both the July 4 Holiday weekend shift and the loss sales weeks from our five restaurants that were closed for some period of time is about Hurricane Gustav and Ike. As Jerry mentioned, our average comparable restaurant sales for the third quarter was a negative 1% including the effects of the July fourth holiday weekend shift and the closure of those three high performing comp restaurant sales in the Houston market. As we mentioned in today's press release, we estimated the July fourth holiday weekend shift impacted comparable restaurant sales by about a 0.5% and at that the closure of those three comparable Houston restaurants, they were closed for a total of 28 days also impacted comparable restaurant sales for the quarter by about a 0.5%. Therefore, adding back the effects on these items, we estimate that the comparable restaurant sales for the third quarter would have been flat compared to last year. I think even more impressive was our ability to generate these types of comparable restaurant sales given our geographic location in which 39 of our 56 comparable restaurants for the quarter are located in the states of California and Arizona. In…

Jerry Deitchle

Management

Thanks Greg that was a very thorough commentary and hopefully answered everyone’s questions in advance. I want to take one more minute before we open up the call for any possible remaining questions and we reiterate our confidence with BJ’s longer trim ability to continue to increase its margins in the casual dining segments. As Greg mentioned that we also feel very confident that our average guest check in the $12 range coupled with our strength in casual cost competitive positioning, our sales building initiatives, the strength of our vital organs should provide BJ’s with a solid opportunity to continue to outperform most of our peers in this pretty tough environment. BJ’s remain full y committed to our longer term strategy to drive our concept and business forward and by doing so we should be even better positioned when the current economic cycle begins to turn around. So that concludes our remarks and now we are going to open up the call for your questions and again if we do not have time to get your question on this call we will try to run the Q&A session as long as reasonably possible please give us a call here at our offices in California we do not go home for several hours yet. So operator we will take some questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. (Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Jeff Farmer with Jefferies and Co. Jeff Farmer- Jefferies & Co.: Thank you, 15% to 18% operating growth implies a pretty wide range of unit opening and in the timing of those opening; can you guys give us any type of ball park absolute range?

Jerry Deitchle

Management

We are not in the position to really give an absolute expected number of new restaurants yet Jeff. We got a good pipeline that has come together very nicely. We are finalizing our reassessment of all of the economics of every sites in the pipeline. We are still working on a couple of potential sites here, trying to gather all the final details with respect to expected co-tenancies which is very, very important for us to open up in any retail project and traditionally we do have to have a full completion of our annual planning process and have a Board of Directors meeting which is going to be happening here shortly. So we ask to give us a little more time to complete all of our work and all of our processes and I think we will be able to give you a pretty solid number of absolute expected restaurants and pretty good idea to when they are going to fall. The good news is we are going to be opening many new restaurants next year but we cannot really dimensionalize until we finish these processes and I hope that you understand that. Jeff Farmer- Jefferies & Co.: I do and well I will be very persistent about this and I would ask for the overall run ten units next year. Having said that, I think you mentioned that 17 pipeline units have been sagged with co-tenancy issues. How many total units were in the pipeline to begin with?

Jerry Deitchle

Management

Well, we have well over 40 to 45 restaurants in the pipeline. In this business to really seek your high quality size you have to been at least 18 months to even three years out in order to really get on the developers to really begin to work over the economics. Greg Lynds and his development team, one of their hallmarks is then building a high quality pipeline of plenty of great sites particularly in the trade areas where we want to develop. As I have mentioned at our comments a little earlier we are trying to focus our development over the next two to three years in trade areas that really help us to leverage our model. That means our existing field supervision cost leverage our supply chain as best as we possibly can. So that is really what we a re trying to focus on. We are trying to avoid the temptation to jump to new markets ahead of win the rest. Could we Washington, Baltimore? Could we go to Charlotte? Could we go to St. Louis? Could we go to Chicago? Could we go to Atlanta? Could we go to Kansas City? Absolutely but we are trying to maintain a very strong discipline of opening restaurants to where we achieve maximum economic average. Greg you want to add anything to those comments.

Greg Lynds

Analyst

Yes we look at our 2009 and 2010 pipeline and there is more than 40 restaurants there that we are looking at and as our peers have stated that early on at 2009 pipeline is the one that really pushed the most. They continue to push quickly and I think that a lot of our peers that moved on early 2009 to late 2009 or earlier 2010 but as we look further into the future our 2010 pipelines were looking very strong and especially when you think about the Steak and Hams, the Bennigans and some of these restaurants that are coming online. We do not want to jump too early when we could get a prime corner that we know that we passed up today and that is going to be available in 2010. Jeff Farmer- Jefferies & Co.: And then my last question switching gears on you. Looking to get a little more color on sales by Day Park specifically lunch. Are you guys making any inroads with this incremental marketing expense?

Jerry Deitchle

Management

We are actually. As stated before our lines should have been where the softer area and we continue to be a softer area. However, I guess August we rolled out our lunch menu and we have seen that lunch menu actually take on about a third of the lunchtime visit and we have seen, I would say overall, the guest traffic has marginally improved since we brought out that lunch menu and we are still negative in that Day Park but we have seen improvements and the other thing too is that many of our sales building initiatives again we supported them with an initial burst of media both print and electronic support but these are all intended to build overtime. So as the words spread about our lunch specials that we would expect to see a gradual flattening of our traffic during lunch where in casual dining in all of my years of being in this business. Whenever the economy slows down, it is really the lunch business in casual dining that begins to feel it first. We responded with, I think very thoughtful one specials that have a reasonably low break even rate with respect to trade and per person check versus the required incremental guest counts in order to break even on absolute gross profit dollars and we are seeing at least a break even on gross profit dollars. So we are very pleased with our performance to date.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Bryann with Redbush Morgan. Please go ahead.

Bryann with Redbush Morgan

Analyst · Redbush Morgan. Please go ahead.

I guess a clarification, I think that you may have mentioned it from the last question. I am trying to understand the opportunity for conversions at the distinct relic retails development versus new retails development?

Jerry Deitchle

Management

I mean conversions have always been opportunistic for us, so as we travel around the country, you got new developers that are building new power centers or new regional malls and for that one opportunity of freestanding path in a new center and the conversion opportunity or the existing Steak and Hams or the Bennigan’s with the department store consolidation with the Mervynn's, as well as the other kind of lifestyle components that are being developed by our regional mall partners. We will have a fair amount of conversion opportunities compared to our freestanding opportunities.

Bryann with Redbush Morgan

Analyst · Redbush Morgan. Please go ahead.

I guess on by geography you comment on, in terms of home court in California, regard to brand recognition.

Jerry Deitchle

Management

They still opportunistically, I mean, so I do not think we necessarily have a pipeline of conversion to trying to get to that. But the other thing that makes a little bit more challenging for BJs as well as our footprints a little bit bigger, like Steak and Ham and Bennigan’s some of them are in the 6000 range. So we need to look if there are freestanding can we have that opportunity to take them and really bolters them and make them a brand new BJs. So the one thing that really without we have to look at, when we only look at conversions.

Gregory Levin

Management

So just this is a quickly summarize all of our comments. We do have a handful with those opportunities that match up with required square feet in the required number of parts that we have to have to support our high volume restaurant. We do have a handful with them. We have a couple in Florida. We have a couple in California. We have a couple in Texas. Those are subject to bidding process. They are triple A locations and very mature densely populated areas, so you can bet that the other restaurant concepts are also putting in bids for those sites, and we hope we are going to be successful and we believe we will get a hold of the couple of them. They could be wildcards in our development for the next year and the year after but we are pursuing as they make sense for us.

Jerry Deitchle

Management

And just lastly Brian, I think the other thing that I think all of our peers will tell you is that a conversion that is not any cheaper for us, when you enter a restaurant so typically it is not a big savings that to convert one versus bulldoze it and then start over.

Bryann with Redbush Morgan

Analyst · Redbush Morgan. Please go ahead.

I guess, for Greg clarification on the average check, did you mention something about a menu price increase for 2009?

Gregory Levin

Management

We still expect our overall average menu pricing to be around4%, maybe a tab less for 2009 based on what we have today. I mean our average check still kind of a holding below the $12 range.

Jerry Deitchle

Management

And again just to reiterate our menu pricing strategy which is purely defensive with respect to our operating margins, so if we get a better than expected break on some of our key commodity cost for the next year then our tendency will be do knock price aggressively for next year. We are trying to keep our average check as low as we possibly can because that is most important competitive advantage that I think BJs has. As we compare our concept and our pricing against the mass market casual dining chain. So we worry more about the precise pricing that we need next year to defend margins over the next couple of months when all the commodity contracts get finalized. But I think for now, a 4% assumption is probably a reasonable assumption.

Bryann with Redbush Morgan

Analyst · Redbush Morgan. Please go ahead.

That is great. Actually leading to my final question which is you probably speak a little too quickly Greg for me to write down these numbers on the labor guidance but, are we looking for a restaurant level margin expansion in 2009 year-over-year? Are we looking for flat margins? How should we think about that?

Gregory Lynds

Management

Yes. I do not know if we get that specifically. I think the wildcards is going to be operating occupancy line based on where you believe compared to restaurant sales that are going to come in. I mean, I think the earnings that we can control, which allow us to go to that food cost and the ability on the wasting our commodity in a little bit wildcard and labor with our systems in place. I think we can do a good job as we done this year maintaining what we call that prime profit number. I think the operating occupancy have a lot of fixed cost from there and they are going to base on really how comparable restaurants sale come trough.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Analyst for Brad Ludington – KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Lynne Collier Brad Ludington – KeyBanc Capital Markets: I have a question on the charges for the natural disaster and related expense that $446 million was just on repairs that were related specifically to the damage from the hurricane. We start to figure out that extraordinary and that will be taken out on a pro forma basis.

Gregory Lynds

Management

Well, have a several line items I would show on the keynote from that standpoint, but still an operating income. It is not an extraordinary item for, yes, part of our item. So it is part of operating income but great it could help. Lynne Collier Brad Ludington – KeyBanc Capital Markets: Okay. Going on to the openings, not trying to get a number of openings for ‘09 but traditionally we would think that probably your first and second quarter ’09 openings were already in some sort of construction process, I think. So, if you compare it to first '08 should we expect the similar number, the six that were opened in first half '08 maybe locked in first half '09 or is that open for changes as well?

Jerry Deitchle

Management

Well, again we are just hesitant to begin the give pieces of our new restaurant development plan for the next year at this time, although, if you drive by a handful of those sites, you are going to see two restaurants already under construction and so that is obviously in the public domain and we have a number of other sites that are under permitting process for potential first half opening. So I guess, I would ask for just a little more patience here as we wrap up our final goals for next year over the next 30 days and we will have a Board of Directors meeting and then, we will have our full plan put together and we will have another announcement and I think everyone will be very, very satisfied with the pace of our continued new restaurant development for next year. We are all very excited about it here but as we mentioned earlier, there is still some moving parts and we just want to really nail it for you guys. One of thing at BJ’s is that we have always done as we have always done what we said we were going to do. So we are just hesitant start talking here but for we have our final plans prepared and approved by our Board of Directors. So we would just ask a little bit more patience but we are going to open some new restaurants next year. We are excited about it, and we will get the information out here very shortly. Lynne Collier Brad Ludington – KeyBanc Capital Markets: Okay. And then final question, Greg, when you are going to the CapEx, I lost track. I think I heard $60 million guidance for ‘08 still but I did not hear if you said what you spent in the third quarter.

Gregory Lynds

Management

I did not say what we spent in the third quarter and I think, I have my year-to-date capital numbers here in front of me. Why don’t you give me call after then get it is out what it was. Lynne Collier Brad Ludington – KeyBanc Capital Markets: Okay. Well, thank you again.

Gregory Levin

Management

We know, brad. I know it is 55 million, as I said year-to-date. I forget what I said it was at the end of the second quarter. Lynne Collier Brad Ludington – KeyBanc Capital Markets: Okay. Well, I will get it then. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Analyst for David Tarantino – Robert W. Baird & Co. Please go ahead. David Tarantino – Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.: Greg, this following up on a prior question related the restaurant level margin. What type of traffic do you think you will need to hold that flat next year given all the cost that are known right now in the pricing.

Gregory Levin

Management

Well I think what we be looking at next year is probably comparable restaurant sales somewhere in the…and when I say, When you guys are talking about holding the margins flat, I guess in my mind, I think getting back to that 19% level versus where we are today. And get in back to the 19% which we shared in Q1, Q2. I think if we are looking at several of that 3% range, with this kind of probably be flat as we get us traffic and we get our pricing through, which is always been kind of our business long term, business plan. We want to hold on to guests traffic and get some pricing through that we had to put in place in the inflationary standpoint. At the same time, continue to leverage the productivity and the efficiency within our four walls. So I do not think, it can really change this next year and based on that, 5% to 6% commodity cost, I mean labor somewhat flat. We said, we need about 2.5% to 3% in menu pricing to cover that. David Tarantino – Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.: Okay. Just to reconcile this Greg, I think you mentioned, I have 4% of pricing and you just said 2-1/2 to 3 years or what is the scrabble through there?

Gregory Levin

Management

I thought your question was where do you think you going to need for comp sales to kind of get flattish margins. Well, we might have 4% of pricing in there, I think it is really the needing somewhere than that 3% range to keep your margins flat.

Unidentified speaker

Analyst

So I guess just to clarify, is your plan to take 4% of pricing when you only need three to cover your past.

Gregory Levin

Management

We do not know what are menu pricing is going to be right now. Going in to next year, it is going to be below 4% and then we’ll determined data commodity contract in other stuff if we have to take more. David Tarantino – Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.: I got it. It makes sense. And then last clarification question on the average weekly sales, comments for Q4 where the 2% to 3% decrease. Were you talking about the gap relative to comps or is that the absolute decrease that you expect to have.

Gregory Levin

Management

That is the absolute decrease, I think best quarter we are down about 3% if you kind of added that the hurricane and the 4th of July, we actually get down about a little, actually I think just the hurricane itself gets you down into the negative 2.3% range. Well I think in the fourth quarter, do you think that unfortunately years even New Years day or big days for us last year and as a result, we are going to continue in an absolute basis to see that negative WSA in the 2% to 3% range.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Analyst for Sharon Zackfia –William Blair & Company, LLC. Please go ahead. Sharon Zackfia –William Blair & Company, LLC: I do not have that many questions and you guys did such a good job but I guess as your sales slightly slow in ’09 is just a slow development. I am just kind of curious about your ability to leverage G&A. Next year, you did a good job somewhat would help of some of the reversals this quarter, leveraging G&A at this year. I am just curious, or whether we can see any kind of G&A leverage continue?

Gregory Lynds

Management

I think the answer will be found when we complete our full year planning process for next year over the next 30 days or so Sharon but again, I think we are trying to run this business to where the absolute increase in G&A year-over-year will be less in the increase in capacity growth through our business. So right now, we have been indicated a 15% to 18% increase and potential capacity for next year. So we would intend to hold our absolute G&A expenditures at the rate of less than that. And I believe that again, depending on the absolute number of restaurants that we open next year. There is a portion of our G&A that there is related to the amount of restaurants that you open. So again, depending on how that all shakes out this year, for next year rather. Our 2009 comparison actually might be favorably impact with a temporarily reduced rate of growth that you get over those reduce G&A. You do not have to spend as much on management for recruiting and training. You do not have to spend this much on field supervision and some of the other variable factors in our G&A better more directly associating with the amount restaurant growth. So I think at this point, we are very confident that we will be able to keep the rate of G&A growth at last in the rate to capacity growth and gives some additional leverage. Sharon Zackfia –William Blair & Company, LLC: Okay. And then this is one final question. When I saw you guys in September you had some new initiatives with the draft beer and also I think you are going to asses to access in California. Anything there is kind of worth mentioning on either of those initiatives?

Gregory Lynds

Management

Yes. We are not in a position to really make any chain wide announcements with respect to those two initiatives, other than to say that we are very, very encouraged by the progress of both right now. We have, I believe it is four or five restaurants now where we kind of experimented with an expanded arrangement where we have surrounded our premiere quality beers with anywhere from 24 or 28 guests tabs. So high quality craft beers, we started doing that on our Austin restaurant over a year ago when we first opened to try to gauge how the consumers would react to it and in whatever amount we would cannibalize sales of our own beer and lo and behold. We sold more beers and it was the guests tabs and we actually held our own sales of our own branded beers. We thought, "Wow! Well, that is fascinating. So let us try that route, let us try that in Seattle. Let us try in our home court in California which we have just done in Del Amo and then Archino, I kind of lose track and so far of the results have been incremental for us. So we are not ready to make a chain wide decision with respect to that program as far as the weekend brunch program, we wanted to try it here in Southern California, kind of an under the radar test although your radar is pretty good, Sharon, you picked it up. So far the result has been pretty darn encouraging and being on the West Cost, with all of the games, game day coming on at 8 o’clock in the morning here on Saturday and with the Pro games and college games all starting at 9 and 10. It makes sense for us with our wonderful video statement, our televisions to open up our restaurants at 10 and we came up with a very small high quality brunch menu of about 08 or 10 different items that are executable in our kitchens and so far the results have been very, very encouraging. So we are going to continue to work it and then we will see where we end up with it.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Anton Brenner - Roth Capital Partners LLC Anton Brenner – Roth Capital Partners LLC: We were all in the mode of talking about the price increases menu adjustments for inflation. At some point, we are going to have declining energy cost than any food and tax cost. Historically, what happens when you have price decline, cost decline and would you keep many pricing where it is and catch up on margins or would you drop prices.

Gregory S. Levin

Analyst

You know in all of my years of being in restaurant business, 30 plus years, and going through all of these particular cycles. I am not aware of any chain that has actually rolled back their pricing on their menus in a very material way. What I have seen when commodity cost tend to get a little more favorable of the major change, trade those benefits to an additional marketing expenses and they really go out and try the hamburger competitors with respect to offers. So, while they may not rollback with absolute sticker prices on their menus. What they will effectively do is discount back price increases to their guest in order to drive guest traffic. I have seen that several times over the years. And, if that manifests itself, going forward, clearly we are going to have to be prepared to think about that and to competitively respond to that. But in terms of reducing sticker prices, I personally can not recall any chain having done that in a big way in my 30, 35 years of being in the business. I think, they do it in the other way. Anton Brenner – Roth Capital Partners LLC: How is the Take Out at Curbside knowing of what the percent of revenues and what about the cost of margins that come after.

Gregory S. Lynds

Analyst

You know, it is building very nicely and before we started the initiatives our premises are running about 4.5% of sales, it is up to 5% of sales, it continues to build. And there is a bit of the trade on the percentage basis. The percentage margin is going to be a little bit less because you’re attending sales as many side items and drinks, with higher margins. On the other side of the coin, the absolute gross profit dollars from the transaction are going to be higher, because you average check on an off premise order is typically much higher than your own premise orders. So, there is some trade over there, but overall, I think the other mass marker change have proven the off premise business, when they really driven it to be, at least 70 to 75% incremental and as time goes on, we would have the same expectation. Anton Brenner – Roth Capital Partners LLC: I think so, that the change is getting much higher percentage of total revenues, right?

Gregory S. Lynds

Analyst

Yes they are, but they did not happen overnight. When you looked at what Appleby’s and Chili’s and Outback Steak house were able to achieve, by doubling their off premise sales as a percentage of total sales, I think it took him two or three years to do that and they were very early in our program but I think the opportunity is there for us. But, particularly when you consider our menu offering, our pizzas, our pastas, our salads and how well they travel.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is coming from Matthew Difrisco – Oppenheimer & Co. Matthew Difrisco - Oppenheimer & Co.: I do not want to keep you any longer with this, so I appreciate you going this long on the call. I do not think you said anything about specifically about cheese. Where you are there versus how long you might be locked in if it all on that extended into ‘09. And then also, I am just curious on the tax rate. Why it was so low? I am sorry if I missed that on the call as well.

Gregory S. Levin

Analyst

That is fine Matt. In regards to cheese we brought in a small portion about 25% of our cheese for next year. We think for now, with the volatility in the commodities, we think it was prudent to say, some of that risk off the table and obviously still capture maybe some down side that may happen as the commodity seem to be coming down so to speak. So, a little bit update is on in annual contract and cheese as we have said before is about 8 to 9% of our cost to sales number. In regards to the tax rate, it was really due to tax credit, as unfortunately, our income is down low, but [inaudible] tax credit was significantly more than we thought and as a result, we were able to take a large portion of it, and that resulted in our lower tax rate. Matthew Difrisco - Oppenheimer & Co.: Okay. And then just a last question on the growth and how we should look at you with that. The modest amount of growth being pulled back, but getting into the teens instead of the 20s on your growth rate, how much dilution have you had I guess in the last couple of years from those stores, obviously the run rate usually is that sales start off strong profitability starts to look better towards the second year. You start your approach the more mature margin. How much of a drag or benefit could we see removed from the ‘09 number in the fix cost line such as the occupancy and operating expense in a modestly slower growth environment.

Gregory S. Lynds

Analyst

I have to get back to you on that, when I just turn that out in front of me, kind of pouring out, let us say the last year, year and half before that. Generally speaking, there are your points right on in the sense that newer restaurant until they reach their predictable sales level. They have gone through a holiday season; they have gone through what might transpire with the school starting and so on, allow them to be much better operated than the restaurants in their first year. But I can not tell you exactly what that number is –

Gregory Levin

Management

Jerry what I have is the benefits to be derived without necessarily be in occupancy in other operating cost in percentage of sales it is really in your prime cost, it is your food and labor because until the restaurant gets really predictable with respect to sales, it is a little harder to manage your inventories and most importantly it is harder to really get various to optimize your labor productivity. So, with the new restaurant situation, your tendency is to over staff. You do not want to disappoint guests, that you generally get your food cost inline within 30 to 45 days, in most cases, but your labor, you are young, you are very, very careful there. Then that is a little sticky here. You do not come and doubt. So, really that is where the benefit could be obtained with a slightly less impact of new restaurant operating weeks and your total operating weeks. So, we will just have to see about that. Matthew Difrisco - Oppenheimer & Co.: And then, any update on the other, the remaining 35 million or so of the auction rate securities is there, a time table or anything that is being discussed out there that there are changes in credit market that we might not be aware of that are now becoming available to you for possible liquidation of these securities.

Gregory S. Lynds

Analyst

Nothing near that, I am aware of that. As you know, that the banks have settled up, they settled up with really to small businesses and charities, retail investors and what they really promise is to use our best efforts to provide liquidity some time in 2009 on the auction rate securities. That is kind of where we are today, we have heard grumbling at different things that is happening out there, different tender offerings, different sheet of loan issues are trying to take out small portion that time, but I do not have anything real concrete on that. Matthew Difrisco - Oppenheimer & Co.: And this is a slide known I guess little humor here, I wish you guys, maybe the industry could petition congress next time when we have a slowdown like this. But, we do not have holidays falling Fridays so often. And Halloween is not being friendly to you.

Gregory S. Lynds

Analyst

This is a year of the goat and unfortunately I do not think it is friendly to the casual dining industry in general. When you kind off look at our business, you know in the long run, and we have a well positioned business. You got a wonderful concept that is very relevant but, this year, when you consider the slowing economy, the calendar shifts off of Fridays, or hurricanes, the auction rate securities. We have been a little bit snake pit unfortunately, on the short term basis, but over the long run, there are very few opportunities as well positioned and as legitimately positioned as BJ’s to execute a national growth plan, and that is why we were all hanging in here.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Analyst for Destin Tompkins – Morgan, Keegan & Company, Inc. Analyst for Destin Tompkins – Morgan, Keegan & Company, Inc.: Calling for Destin. Question really quickly on the vast and the goods, Greg that you talked about for 2009. You mentioned that it looked a little bit more favorable up about five to six percent versus previously up about 6 to 8. Wondering where you seing those raise of sunshine that are bringing yet down a little bit, or is that due to menu pricing or diesel cost or, can you give us some color?

Gregory S. Lynds

Analyst

It is a little bit coming down on some of the interest cost into some of those. [inaudible] coming down and helping us a little bit. Also, with the slowdown in some of the other proteins, chicken that has come down a little bit. Well, bread too. When you look at the drop of wheat prices and the potential impact on our pizza dough and our bread, we sell a heck a lot of sandwiches here at BJ’s. Actually, our projected increase is in most few commodities with wheat coming down have actually caused us to move our total commodity basket down a little bit. And then there have been have been some other things as well, but I think that pretty much explains it. Analyst for Destin Tompkins – Morgan, Keegan & Company, Inc.: Well, some of those things are actually down year over year, so I guess that turn it around the other way, which are the items that you are feeling the most pressure on?

Gregory S. Lynds

Analyst

At this point in time, chicken is still a little bit of a wild card for us. Cheese is still moving around a little bit those are pretty large pieces of our total cost of sales as Greg mentioned cheese is, you know about 8%, poultry is about 10% for us. So, those are still moving around and as well the dressings. And again, what we are trying to do as everybody else is trying to do, is trying to convince our key suppliers to enter into long term fixed cost contracts with us. So, at this stage of the game, on the supplier’s side there are still generally reluctant to give you four year quotes going into 2009 in a lot of these commodities. Now, they will but they are going to cushion those prices with a pretty good premium for that predictability. And so far, what we received has not really been acceptable to us. But as time goes on we are beginning to see a little more favorable price comp with respect to our suppliers in that respect so we still get another 30 days or so to go and if we cannot get acceptable fixed price contracts for a full year then we go to 90 days and do the best that we possibly can so it is still moving around a little bit and we still have some work to do.

Jerry Deitchle

Management

I think one of the other areas for us is, on our Pizza bread we had a three year contract. So we locked into that in 2006 and as a result even though we are coming down, it is going to be a little bit more impacted for maybe the last somebody else that had a weak contract last year.

Gregory Levin

Management

e We will take one more question and we will wrap it out today.

Operator

Operator

And our final question comes from the line Greg Ruedy - Stephens Incorporated

Greg Ruedy - Stephens Incorporated

Analyst

Good afternoon. A question for Greg Lynds, your Tukwila, Washington location looks like it is fit to seat more guests than average. How do you see the shape and size of your footprint evolving over the next two years and can you comment on where you think the industry trends will move as well

Greg Lynds

Analyst

Our Tukwila restaurant is a custom footprint restaurant so it is a lot of our custom footprints depend upon the space where the landlord originally constructed. This one we had a little bit of flexibility but it slides in there in that 9000 square foot range in Tukwila. It steeps more importantly you got to look at the seats and the tables of this restaurant has and in Tukwila is about 62 tables sideway and seats about 280 which is very similar to our prototypes. In terms of the industry, I think, the industry have always been in the area of damming down or moving smaller and making it cheaper, better, faster, I think at BJ’s it is quality. It is about the guests. It is about efficiency and productivity. So at this point our goal is to continue to build restaurants that are more efficient and higher quality and serve the guests better. So we will continue to build our restaurants for the same type as we have building them.

Greg Ruedy - Stephens Incorporated

Analyst

I would shift to somewhat of a guest mix perspective. To what extent your business is supported maybe other service industry professionals or retail hourly staff that is around these Triple A sites that come straight from work?

Greg Lynds

Analyst

Greg each site is independent. I could tell you Westwood, California there is a lot of medical buildings in that area. We serve lunch to them as well as the kids in the schools and fortunately we do not have a general rule of thumb for our restaurants. It is very, very tight.

Greg Levin

Management

It really is. We do open later than most casual dining restaurants so when the malls and all of the other restaurants close up at 9 or 10 and we are still open until midnight or so. We get a little bit of late business in our late night happy hour for service industry professionals, Other restaurant workers and so forth but I do not think it is a material part of our business.

Greg Ruedy - Stephens Incorporated

Analyst

Greg Levin do you know offhand how much of the alcohol sales is as opposed to [inaudible]

Greg Levin

Management

Not much. I am trying to late night business is somewhat around 7% of our business. When we look at our instant rates we do see the liquor down a little bit from an instant rate than what we have seen in there past so we are seeing every other category holding very nicely.

Greg Lynds

Analyst

Our beer instantly for 100 is actually up. So that is a little bit fascinating but maybe it is kinf of sign of the times.

Greg Ruedy - Stephens Incorporated

Analyst

so :

Jerry Deitchle

Management

Thank you all for being on the call on today. That will conclude our call.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the BJ's Restaurants Incorporated third quarter 2008 results conference call. If you would like to listen to a replay of today's conference, please dial 303-590-3030 or 1-800-406-7325. Then enter access code is 3930855. We would like to thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.