T. Andrew Smith
Analyst · Barclays.
Well, again, Jack, I don't have those statistics right here with me, but we do track that very carefully. Let me -- in fact, let me give you an example, I was looking at Houston yesterday, which is part of our budget planning process for 2014. So when you look at Houston, we operate 22 communities there in 15 submarkets with around 4,100 units in operation. In total, the Houston market has 135 communities with Senior Living capacity of about 16,700 units. Now the NIC data shows growth of 11 Independent, Assisted and Memory Care communities, 1 of which we're going to manage, which is almost 1,125 new units or 6.7% of the total capacity in the broader Houston market. However, against this new supply, NIC estimates that the Houston market of people over than 85 with income greater than $50,000, again, our demographic sweet spot, that demographic is going to grow at a compound annual rate of 9.2% over the next several years. In addition, 85% of the new units under construction are Assisted or Memory Care, which is well below the amount by which NIC indicates that Assisted and Memory Care markets in Houston are already, today, undersupplied. So as we analyze our 15 Houston submarkets, we really see that there are only 3 markets that have a slight bit of oversupply after all of this new construction is completed in the next several years. In those 3 submarkets, we have 257 units. Again, we are providing competitive response action plans to deal with that new competition with respect to those 257 units. So while Houston could appear to be an average market based on the general NIC data, it's a huge MSA with a lot of underserved areas and a growing target population that's going to absorb this new construction. So that's the way that we analyze each of our particular submarkets when we think about what new construction looks like. I hope that's helpful to you.