Operator
Operator
Welcome to Priceline’s first quarter 2007 conference call. Priceline would like to remind everyone that this call may contain forward-looking statements which remain pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual results may differ materially from those expressed, implied, or forecasted in any such forward-looking statements. Expressions of future goals and similar expressions reflecting something other than historical fact are intended to identify forward-looking statements. For a list of factors that could cause Priceline’s actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements please refer to the Safe Harbor statements at the end of Priceline’s earnings press release as well as Priceline’s most recent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Unless required by law, Priceline undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. A copy of Priceline’s earnings press release together with an accompanying financial and statistical supplement is available in the investor relations section of Priceline’s website, located at www.priceline.com. And now, I’d like to introduce Priceline’s speaker for this afternoon, Mr. Jeff Boyd. Please go ahead. Jeff Boyd : Thank you very much and welcome everybody to Priceline’s first quarter conference call. I’m here with Priceline’s CFO, Bob Mylod. Priceline recorded gross bookings for the first quarter of $998 million, up 34% year over year. Pro forma gross profit of $104 million was up 43% and pro forma net income was $17 million, or $0.43 per share. First quarter results surpassed the high end of our guidance due to better than forecast earnings in both our domestic and European businesses, and exceeded first call consensus estimates of $0.27 per share. Priceline’s gross bookings growth rate was driven by a 91% growth at Booking.com, which again exceeded our growth expectations in the first quarter. Bottom line, over performance was attributable to European bookings growth, growth in domestic gross profit, and marketing efficiencies. Priceline’s domestic growth rate was 1% in the first quarter, a decrease from 12% in Q4. Merchant gross bookings were up 8% in the first quarter, a decrease from 18% growth in Q4. The previously announced termination of the Orbitz Opaque and Travelweb relationships and forecasted weakness in retail airline ticket sales were responsible for slowing domestic growth. Booking.com continues to benefit from positive e-commerce and travel-market trends in Europe. Booking.com is building supply, content, and distribution across Europe, which is contributing to growth of the business. We also continue to see benefits from integration activities, product enhancement, and marketing efficiencies. Booking.com continues to focus on online brand building, building repeat business, and bringing in more destinations and hotels, with the network now including over 32,000 hotels in 54 countries. Our European management and employees continue to execute well in building market leadership in key western European markets, and planting seeds for future growth in newer markets. Our supply and distribution teams are building strong local relationships based on our supplier-friendly model. The team has also done a good job scaling the business and achieving integration benefits and objectives. As expected, gross bookings for Priceline’s domestic business were negatively impacted by the loss of Opaque and Travelweb business from Orbitz. We decided last year not to renew the Opaque transaction with Orbitz, and have increased the return on investment hurdles in other online channels. These steps have reduced gross bookings, especially in airlines tickets, which accounted for the majority of Orbitz Opaque business, and in retail tickets, where reduced GDS economics magnified the effect of higher ROI requirements. Despite the loss of Orbitz business, our domestic hotel and rental car businesses continue to perform well in the quarter, showing solid growth in units and gross bookings. The strength of these businesses is evident in the 8% growth in merchant bookings, and 11% growth in pro forma and domestic growth profit dollars in the quarter. The performance of our merchant business together with the benefit of greater marketing efficiencies contributed to better than expected domestic earnings. And importantly, our airline ticket business, hardest hit by the aforementioned changes, made a significant contribution to growth and earnings. We believe that the favorable results we are seeing in the business coming directly to Priceline.com, rather than through branded affiliates like Orbitz, are being driven by our new advertising campaign, The Negotiator, featuring William Shatner, and good execution in other online channels. We continue to role out new creative initiatives for the Negotiator and are seeding the campaign in other media. We are also pursuing new online partnerships at reasonable rates in an effort to replace some of the lost Orbitz business over time. Finally, we continue to build content and functionality aimed at enhancing customer loyalty, and expect to deploy some of these programs later this year. With these initiatives, the momentum of our domestic merchant business, and improved customer acquisition costs, we expect domestic earnings growth to continue for the balance of 2007. Priceline’s objective is to be the leading domestic online destination for value-conscious leisure travelers, and the leading online hotel reservation service in Europe. We continue to show superior growth and profitability in Europe, and the domestic business is contributing nicely to growth and earnings. We continue to be pleased with Priceline’s combined financial performance. I will now turn the call over to Bob for the financial review. Bob Mylod : Thanks Jeff. First quarter of 2007 was another strong quarter, during which we were able to continue the strong earnings momentum on both sides of the Atlantic that we had established during the fourth quarter of 2006. Internationally, Booking.com once again turned in gross bookings growth that significantly exceeded our expectations, and that further added to our already formidable position as the largest online hotel reservations booking service in Europe. That top-line growth combined with great operational execution and expense management was the single biggest contributor to the upside and consolidated pro forma earnings for the quarter. In the US, Priceline’s earnings results also grew significantly on a year-over-year basis, coming in higher than our expectations. And because incremental operating income generated within the US is essentially free of tax because of our significant NOL tax assets, our US operations also played a big part in our earnings upside. Let me quickly go through some of the details of the quarter, and then I’ll get to guidance. I’ll start with total gross bookings of $998 million, which grew by 34% year-over-year. In our last earnings call we projected that our European businesses would generate $477-491 million of gross bookings in Q1. That guidance was based upon an assumption that we would experience fairly material monthly sequential declines in our annualized gross bookings growth rates in Europe. And in fact, while we did indeed experience monthly sequential declines, the rate of decline was not as steep as anticipated, and accordingly, our European annualized gross bookings growth rate came in at 91%, substantially above our forecast of between 75-80%, which drove European gross bookings of $520 million. As for our domestic business, to recap what Jeff just mentioned, our gross bookings came in pretty much where we expected, although we did a little bit better with respect to our hotel and rental car services, and we came in below expectations with respect to the sale of airline tickets, which is evidenced by the 12.2% year-over-year decline in the unit sales of airline tickets. And while we were generally disappointed with this result, keep in mind that the airline ticket service represents a small fraction of our domestic profitability, and an even smaller fraction of our consolidated profitability. Moreover, the shortfall in airline ticket sales relative to our forecast came more from the very low margin retail airline ticket service than it did the high margin opaque airline ticket service. Consequently, the lower than expected airline ticket sales had a negligible impact on overall results. As for revenues, the strong gross bookings performance led to an 18% revenue growth, which was in excess of our 15% guidance. As for gross profit dollars, again, gross bookings over performance coupled with a favorable shift (inaudible) towards the higher margin merchant products, including retail merchant hotels, allowed us to deliver pro forma and gross profit dollars in growth that also came in substantially ahead of the high end of our guidance. As for our pro forma operating expenses, our Q1 advertising expense of $43.3 million came in below our prior guidance. Which, given that it is the largest of our expense-line items, was a big driver to our profit upside. This was gratifying for several reasons. First, as we have mentioned for several quarters now, our goal domestically is to focus with even greater intensity on achieving operating leverage and high return on investment. We clearly achieved this in Q1. Jeff detailed this point with his discussion of the Orbits online ad deal, but I want to also stress that the improvements in domestic online ROI generally came across the board. Second, while the European market is certainly becoming more and more competitive with respect to online spend, we remain disciplined in sticking to our ROI targets, and in fact did a little bit better than planned. And finally, as you can see from overall gross bookings growth, none of these online marketing efficiencies came at the expense of our overall growth targets. Moving on to the remainder of our pro-forma expenses, the sum of personnel costs, G&A, depreciation and amortization, and sales and marketing expense came in roughly in line with our prior guidance. Our pro forma income tax expense actually came in higher than our prior guidance due to the strong pre-tax income performance in Europe, where our NOLs do not apply and where we are a taxpayer. We also incurred approximately $300,000 of losses associated with foreign exchange hedging activities due to the increase in the value of the Euro and the Pound, the two principal foreign currencies with which we transact in Europe, relative to the Dollar. These losses were generally offset by favorable FX earnings translations for our European operations which flowed through each line item of our income statement. As I mentioned on our prior earnings call, our general goal with respects to FX is to hedge a substantial portion of our expected year term earnings, mainly through the use of fairly plain manila forward contracts. Therefore while there were FX gains achieved by the Euro and the Pound against the Dollar during the first quarter, the impact to our Q1 EPS was not material due to the offsetting impact of our hedging activities. Our European gross bookings metric was positively impacted by FX in the first quarter and our statistical supplement shows our European gross bookings growth rates on a local currency basis. We reported pro forma net income of $0.43 per share, which as Jeff mentioned, represented a 126% year-over-year growth and handily invested both our guidance and first call estimates of $0.27 per share. We reported a GAAP net loss of $0.44 per share for the quarter driven principally by our previous (inaudible) settlement of the securities class action lawsuit that dates back to the year 2000. The cost of the settlement and associated legal expenses, net of offsetting insurance proceeds, was approximately $55 million. None of the cash associated with the legal settlement has yet been paid, so the settlement appears on our balance sheet as an accrued expense. It is our expectation that the cash payments, net of the offsetting insurance contribution, will be paid in the second quarter. The securities litigation settlement expenses were partially offset by income that was recognized with respect to an excised tax refund that was confirmed by the Internal Revenue Service several weeks ago. As I discussed on our prior earnings call, we received a favorable ruling from the IRS last year on whether or not Federal Transportation Excise taxes are due and payable on the gross profit that we earn on the sale of merchant airline tickets. Prior to that ruling we had been remitting such a tax to the IRS and recognizing the expenses associated with the tax as a deduction to our merchant revenues. Upon receipt of the ruling, we immediately stopped remitting the taxes and then pressed for a refund of the amount that we had paid previously. Approximately $15.9 million of the refund appears as revenue in our GAAP P&L and another $2.8 million appears on our interest income line item as the IRS paid us for foregone interest on our refund. The cash from the excise tax refund had not been paid as of the end of Q1, so it appears on our balance sheet as another current asset. The cash refund was actually received in April. Finally, our income tax expense was positively impacted by the net cost of the legal settlement, net of the excised tax refund, by approximately $14.4 million. So the negative after tax impact of the legal settlement, net of the excised tax refund, was approximately $22 million and all of these items have been excluded from our pro forma results because of their one time nature and their lack of comparability to prior periods' results. GAAP results were also negatively impacted by approximately $5.9 million of acquisition related amortization and $3.2 million of stock based compensation expense which reflects the impact of the adoption of FAS 123R last year. All these expenses were non-cash in nature. GAAP results exclude approximately 3.9 million shares of common stock equivalence associated with our convertible bonds, employee stock options, and un-invested restricted stock due to the anti dilutive impact that the inclusion of the stock would have had on our GAAP loss. As for cash and cash flow we generated approximately $18.8 million in operating cash flow during the quarter which consistent with our historical operating cash flow was slightly in excess of our pro forma net income. The problem was we noticed that our OCF was roughly flat versus last year, but keep in mind that in last year's first quarter there was no cash outflow associated with the payment of income taxes versus a $6.6 million outflow this year. Also the comparability of this year's first quarter OCF versus last year's was distorted by the payment of approximately $5.5 million in performance based employee bonuses in Europe that were accrued last year and paid in the first quarter of this year. In last year's first quarter there were no such payments made in Europe. As for our cash balances we began the quarter with $434 million of cash in marketable securities and we closed the quarter with $457.6 million of cash in marketable securities representing an increase in cash of $23.6 million in the quarter. We generated approximately $7.6 million from the exercise of employee stock options and we repurchased approximately $1.4 million of our stock during the quarter. Total capital expenditures in the first quarter were approximately $2.2 million. And now for a few comments on guidance. We're looking for second quarter gross bookings to grow by approximately 23-28% on a year-over-year basis with gross bookings from Priceline Europe growing approximately 72-76% on a year-over basis. You will note that this guidance implies a decline in our domestic gross bookings, although it is our expectation that our higher margin merchant gross bookings will be roughly flat with last year, despite the loss of the Orbitz business which was a significant contributor to domestic merchant gross bookings last year. We expect pro forma revenue, which excludes the benefit of additional excised tax refunds that are expected in Q2, to grow by approximately 10-15% on a year-over-year basis. We expect pro forma gross profit dollars to grow by approximately 34-38% on a year-over-year basis. As for Q2 operating expenses, we're targeting consolidated advertising expenses of approximately $52-55 million with approximately 75-80% of that amount being spent on online advertising. We expect sales and marketing expense of between $13-14 million and we expect personnel cost excluding stock based compensation to come in between $19.5-20.5 million. We expect G&A expenses of approximately $8-8.5 million and information and technology costs of approximately $3-3.2 million. And depreciation and amortization expense excluding acquisition amortization of approximately $3.2 million. We expect total below the line positive impact of approximately $1.3 million, which comprises net interest income, foreign exchange expense, equity and income of Priceline Mortgage and minority interest expense. We're targeting pro forma EPS of approximately $0.80-0.90 per share and our pro forma EPS forecast includes an estimated cash income tax of approximately $7 million comprised of alternative minimum tax in the United States and income taxes in Europe. Our pro forma EPS guidance is based upon pro forma diluted share count of approximately 42.9 million shares. The mid point of our pro forma EPS range represents a 55% increase versus last year's second quarter. As for expected GAAP results, we expect to report a GAAP EPS of between $0.52-0.62 per share. The difference between our GAAP and pro forma results will be driven primarily by the inclusion of acquisition related amortization, stock based compensation, and certain income tax expenses, all of which are non-cash in nature. GAAP results will be positively impacted by additional receipts of excise tax refunds in the amount of approximately $3 million, while the refund is cash in nature it is excluded from the pro forma results due to its one time nature and its lack of comparability to prior period results. Finally, GAAP results will be negatively impacted by the inclusion of approximately 1.4 million shares of additional unissued common stock associated with our 2006 convertible note offerings that we are required to use in the calculation of GAAP EPS. As I've mentioned on our prior earnings calls, because of the convertible note hedges that we have in place, the 2006 convertible notes do not begin to become dilutive unless and until our stock reaches a level of $50.47 per share. Therefore the share count used in computed pro forma EPS includes the treasury stock method dilutive impact of our two most recently completed debt transactions, only to the extent that our stock exceeds $50.47 per share. While we're not going to give detailed line item guidance for the full year 2007, we are comfortable giving the following bookings and pro forma EPS guidance as outlined in our press release last week. To summarize where we were before our earnings announcement, we had been forecasting full year 2007 pro forma EPS of between $2.60-2.90 per share. We're now targeting pro forma EPS of approximately $2.90-3.10 per share. This is based on a pro forma income tax rate of approximately 15.5%. GAAP EPS is expected to be approximately $1.25-1.45 per share primarily as a result as the same non-cash items that will impact Q1 as well as the shareholder litigation settlement and the income tax refund. We expect to achieve full year gross bookings of approximately $4.1-4.2 billion. The pro forma EPS guidance for the full year of 2007 is based upon a diluted share count of approximately 42.6 million shares, which includes a calculation of the economic dilutive impact of all of our outstanding convertible notes and stock options net of the favorable economic impact of our convertible note hedges based on actual year to date trading prices of our stock, and an assumption that the future trading price of our stock for the remainder of 2007 would be equal to yesterday’s closing stock price of $62.54 per share. This calculation produces an average trading price for the year of $58.59 per share. The share count in today’s guidance is a slightly higher share count than the one we shared in last week’s pre-announcement due to additional treasury stock method shares that have been added to our share count due to the increase in our stock price due to last week’s pre-announcement. Despite the slight increase in share count, we remain comfortable with our $2.90-3.10 range. And that leads me to a couple of final points that I would like to make about our forward-looking earnings for 2007 and beyond. The first point is essentially a repeat of a point I made on last quarter’s earnings call with respect towards diluted share count. On that call, I spend quite a bit of time talking about the potential dilutive impact that our outstanding convertible notes could have on our pro forma diluted shares outstanding, and therefore our pro forma EPS. Given the current trading levels of our stock, the diluted share count used to compute both GAAP and pro forma EPS will be more affected by movements up or down in the future trading price of our stock. As I also mentioned, we do not want to get into the business of projecting our stock price, so instead, we wanted to give you some numerical guideposts to use, to allow investors to better understand the potential dilutive impact to EPS that our convertible notes could have on our diluted share count. Specifically, at an average stock price of $50 per share for the full year 2007, the share counts that I just quoted for our full year 2007 pro forma EPS guidance would be reduced by approximately 1.8 million shares, and therefore our diluted share count would be approximately 40.8 million shares. At an annual stock price of $60 per share, the share counts would be increased by 300,000 shares, and therefore our diluted share count would be approximately 42.9 million shares. At an average annual stock price of $70 per share, the share counts would be increased by 1.8 million in shares, and therefore our diluted share count would be approximately 44.4 million shares. Finally, at an average annual stock price of $80 per share, the share counts would be increased by 3 million shares, and therefore our diluted share count would be approximately 45.6 million shares. As you can see, the higher our stock price goes, the more shares get included in our pro forma diluted EPS calculation, although as you can also see, the relationship is not linear, and the number of additional marginal shares decreases at ever higher stock price levels. The second point has to do with our income tax rate. As most of you know, because of our significant NOL tax assets in the US, we are not much of a cash tax payer in the US other than on a small alternative minimum tax basis. On the other hand, our NOL’s do not apply in Europe, and we are therefore a significant payer of cash income taxes there. In recent years, our effective cash tax rate has increased significantly because of the increasing share of consolidated pre-tax profits that are generated in Europe. Yet in 2007, our guidance for our cash tax rate assumes that this trend will stop and that there will be little change in the rate in 2007 versus 2006. This is due to our ongoing efforts to grow our domestic pre-tax income at significant higher rates in 2007 then in 2006. And while pre tax income is likely to grow at a faster rate in European than in the US in 2007, the respective growth rates are expected to be much more similar than in past years, and therefore we do not expect to see much of a change in our consolidated cash tax rate in 2007. However, it is our current expectation that in 2008 and beyond, Europe will grow its pre-tax income at significantly higher rates than the US. And therefore, it is our expectation that our cash tax rate will increase in 2008 and beyond, as our European business generates an ever-increasing share of our pre-tax income. So, while we are not going to get into a discussion of EPS for 2008 and beyond, I hope that this discussion of share counts and tax breaks are helpful to investors that are engaging in such a discussion. And finally, I’ll point out as I’ve done on previous calls, that all of our forecasts are based on an assumption that we’ll continue operating in a consumer travel market that’s roughly similar to the current one, and any terrorist event, particularly within the United States or Europe in all likelihood would have a negative impact on the travel market in general, and our operating results in particular. And with that, we’d be happy to answer your questions. Operator : Ladies and Gentleman, to ask a question please press the one key on your touchtone telephone. If your question has been answered or you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, please press the pound key. Again, to ask a question, press the one key. At this time we are holding for questions. First question comes from Aaron Kessler of Piper Jaffray. Your line is open. Aaron Kessler - Piper Jaffray : Great thank you. Good quarter guys. A couple questions, first, can you give us a sense for what the housekeeping is on what the international revenue number was? And then on, in terms of brand awareness, can you give us a sense they would have aided or unaided brand awareness bookings has in Europe at this point? I have one follow up question. Bob Mylod : Sure, and I’ll take the first one. Europe revenues for Q1 were $48 million and the growth profit dollars were $47.1 million. Aaron Kessler - Piper Jaffray : Good. Jeff Boyd : And Aaron, as to the brand awareness, we don’t have the same kind of research for Europe that we have for the United States. We use that principally here, to track the impact of our offline marketing and we don’t do any offline marketing in Europe but I think you can get an indication of that from looking at some of the published traffic data that’s out there for the booking.com sites compared to some of the other online sites. Aaron Kessler - Piper Jaffray : And you would imagine at some point, you would have to maybe increase the Europe brand aware system to kind of protect your brand anddo some search marketing and gain share, would you at some point consider doing more with the brand advertising in Europe? Jeff Boyd : The way we look at that at this point in time is there are a lot of things that we are doing and can do to build the brand and build awareness without getting into television and magazine advertising, which the complexities of the European market make that very expensive and sometimes not that effective. So, we’re principally engaged in efforts to build repeat business and customer loyalty based on online advertising and based on their experience on the website. Aaron Kessler - Piper Jaffray : Great thank you and good quarter. Jeff Boyd : Thanks. Operator : Thank you. Our next question comes from Anthony Noto with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Jennifer Watson - Goldman Sachs : Hi, this is actually Jen Watson in for Anthony. Quick question on the higher net revenue rates on both the merchant and agency bookings quarter. Can you discuss the factors that drove that and if they are sustainable throughout the year? Bob Mylod : Sure, Jen. With respect to merchant, our merchant products, I would say that we generally have experienced a slight increase in our core raw margins. With respect to the net revenue rate on agency, that’s more driven by seasonal factors as well as sort of the relative growth rates on a quarter by quarter basis. So because we did experience a sequential decrease in our gross bookings, remember because we recognized revenue on a stayed basis, there will always be a little bit of a lag effect. So, you should always see the revenue, if gross bookings are declining sequentially the revenues would not decline quite as fast in the same quarter.