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Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 17, 2016

$173.66

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to The Priceline Group's Fourth Quarter 2015 Conference Call. The Priceline Group would like to remind everyone that this call may contain forward-looking statements which are made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore actual results may differ materially from those expressed, implied or forecasted in any such forward-looking statements. Expressions of future goals or expectations or similar expressions reflecting something other than historical facts are intended to identify forward-looking statements. For a list of factors that could cause the group's actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements please refer to the Safe Harbor statements at the end of the group's earnings press release as well as the group's most recent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Unless required by law, The Priceline Group undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. A copy of the group's earnings press release together with an accompanying financial and statistical supplement is available in the For Investors section of The Priceline Group's website www.pricelinegroup.com. And now I'd like to introduce The Priceline Group's speakers for this afternoon, Darren Huston and Daniel Finnegan. Go ahead gentlemen. Darren Richard Huston - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you. Welcome to The Priceline Group's fourth quarter conference call. Thank you for joining us before the market opens this morning in New York. I'm here in Amsterdam with Priceline Group's CFO Dan Finnegan. The group reported another solid quarter with consolidated gross bookings of approximately $12 billion up about 24% on a constant currency basis, 13%…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our first question is from Tom White with Macquarie. You may begin. Thomas White - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Good. Thanks for taking my questions. Just one on the TripAdvisor Instant Booking. I think you said no kind of impact contemplated in 2016, but was there any sort of discernible impact to the 4Q room night growth? And then just on your comments on take rates, it sounds like things are stable. I guess – I know this isn't a perfectly clean calc, but if I look at gross profit growth kind of on an FX-neutral basis, that kind of lagged room night growth a bit in the fourth quarter for the first time in several quarters. Can you maybe just comment a bit on the drivers of the delta there if take rates are stable? Thanks. Darren Richard Huston - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, Tom. I'll take the first one on TripAssist and I'll let Dan take the second one. I think one of the headlines is TripAssist is still very early, and as Steve would tell you, they're still rolling out the product. It's important to understand that TripAdvisor makes up low single-digit percentage of our business, and TripAssist within our TripAdvisor business is a small percentage of our business. We have found at least we're happy with the brand impact. That was one of the reasons we did that. We're happy with the consumer behavior we see, but it's still small, and to be honest if it becomes two or three times the size it is today, it's still quite small for us from a materiality perspective. Again, we're happy with the execution. The teams have been connecting really well and we're curious to see how big it can become. Daniel J. Finnegan - Chief Financial Officer & Chief Accounting Officer: And on your second question, Tom, if you look at the gross bookings we generated in Q4 and the take rate, the revenue that will ultimately generate from those, the rate is stable. So it's really just a book versus stay difference. We typically see this when we have a quarter where we accelerate to the extent that we did, but due to the lag between when the booking occurs and travel occurs, the growth in gross profit typically lags that growth in gross bookings. And in particular the strength at the end of the quarter last month will benefit to a greater extent Q1 and beyond than Q4. Thomas White - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Great. Thank you. Darren Richard Huston - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: You're welcome. Daniel J. Finnegan - Chief Financial Officer & Chief Accounting Officer: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Brian Fitzgerald with Jefferies. You may begin.

Brian P. Fitzgerald - Jefferies LLC

Management

Thanks, guys. Maybe on OpenTable – first, congrats to Christa as she stepped into that OpenTable CEO role this quarter. You've mentioned OpenTable international expansion in 2016. Can you remind us how many countries they're in currently and where do you see opportunities for expansion? And then along the same lines, there are many players that are attacking that local reservation market on a global basis, how important are the relationships there versus maybe having an all-encompassing platform with reviews, with reservations and maybe even with delivery options, or does it come down to having the best tech and the best competitive rates? Thanks. Darren Richard Huston - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Okay. Thanks, Brian. Yeah. As mentioned in my prepared remarks, we feel really good about where OpenTable is. We knew at the time we acquired it that we might have to make some changes in leadership. Christa has done an awesome job. The team hit all of its Q4 KPIs and these are all about how do we get medium to long term momentum. We are currently primarily in the United States, we also have operations in Japan, the U.K., Germany, we've made an acquisition of AS Digital that put us into Australia. There are also by the way a number of restaurants that use OpenTable software all around the world, although we may not have a consumer-facing site. The whole process of globalizing OpenTable has been – you'll see recently their latest app update allows Americans to book in London. You'd think that was the simplest thing and that should have been done years ago, but there you go. It's done now, and this allows the app to become global. There's more things around languages as well so that if you go to book a…

Brian P. Fitzgerald - Jefferies LLC

Management

Great. Thanks Darren. Darren Richard Huston - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Naved Khan with Cantor Fitzgerald. You may begin.

Naved Khan - Cantor Fitzgerald Securities

Management

Thanks. The growth in properties continues to be pretty strong. Darren, can you add some color as to where you are adding more properties, which regions you see more strength in? Darren Richard Huston - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes, okay. Thanks, Naved. So, the really important math here is the diversity in properties and rooms. And we talked about the 22.6 million rooms we have on our website. In Europe, we are actually still adding a lot of properties but because this is our most mature market those properties are becoming smaller and smaller. By the way they are still tremendously valuable because all of these smaller properties add tremendous diversity to our accommodation base, therefore being able to fit very specific needs. They also help us in low availability times. If there's a conference or something, these properties could help fill demand when you're in a supply-constrained environment. So Europe is a lot of properties that are getting smaller and smaller, and that's the nature of the European business. For instance, in Italy at a time we're adding 100 properties a day because these are very small properties in small places, kind of mom-and-pop operated type product. In other parts of the world, we're still adding many large, multi-room. I think India and China, in particular. China, we've entered the year with about 6,500 properties, exited the year with 35,000 properties, a lot of that was organically built. In China we have a lot more to do just adding really large hotels and properties. The challenge in China is making sure you have enough domestic demand to fill those. Inbound China is not a huge market, but domestic China is a huge market. And we're filling those beds through partnerships within China including our relationship with Ctrip. India is another one that just seems to have unending potential for us and we are busy there building out that marketplace. I'd say another part of the world is Africa, Central America; these are areas still where we're adding hotels. But at some point, we will have most of the world's hotels and then there's still a lot of extra property count in these single-owner, single-apartment type products, almost endless to some degree it seems. But we're having to add those a room/property at a time and that's obviously important and tough work.

Naved Khan - Cantor Fitzgerald Securities

Management

Okay. That's very helpful. And then one follow up, earlier in your previous calls, Darren, you've talked about how Europeans were sort of more inclined to stay within Europe just because of maybe FX becoming somewhat of a headwind to travel abroad. What kind of flows are you seeing in terms of tourism or people sort of, staying within boundaries or not? Darren Richard Huston - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. Thanks, Naved. There's two effects we always see of currency. One is the absolute level of the currency and the other issue is volatility. And a lower euro has a big impact, but it's also the movement in the euro because people need to get used to the fact that the euro is now a $1.11 and no longer $1.35. So we certainly see now that the euro has stabilized that that's had a positive impact on year-over-year base of Europeans starting to travel back to America, starting to travel to the UK, starting to travel to higher currency zones. I think the other point that Dan made, the KAYAK data, that shows that flights are down 15% year-over-year; that actually plays into the travel budget as well. So we're seeing more positive flows of Europeans into these higher currency markets. It certainly hasn't recovered to the time of the $1.35 euro, but it's more positive than it was a year ago. That said, intra-EU travel is still – we're seeing very positive impacts there. There's a number crises in the world, Tunisia, Egypt, even Turkey. The positive there for us is that many of these markets are wholesale package travel markets. We have properties there but they're traditionally sort of the Thomas Cook's, the Tuohy's (33:17) of the world and a lot of that travel is now ending up in Italy and Spain and southern France and that's more of a retail market that plays also to our strength and that's another trend we've been seeing recently.

Naved Khan - Cantor Fitzgerald Securities

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Mike Olson with Piper Jaffray. You may begin. Michael Olson - Piper Jaffray & Co (Broker): Good morning. Just one question, I know you aren't guiding beyond Q1, but high level how are you thinking about go-forward operating margin trends as we lap the acquisitions which could help non-advertising operating leverage balance with dynamics of advertising ROIs and the related impact on advertising expense leverage or deleverage in 2016? Daniel J. Finnegan - Chief Financial Officer & Chief Accounting Officer: Hi, Mike. We don't have guidance for you beyond Q1, but as we said on previous calls, we expect that we can deliver operating leverage in the non-ad OpEx over time. The business is growing fast, it's scalable and so even with the investments that we're making to drive growth in the future, we think that we can deliver leverage there. Off-line advertising, we're going to heavy up in periods where we think we've got good creative and it's moving the needle for us, but over the long term we expect that we would have leverage there too. We'll hit a level of spending that we think is the right level in a market and we'll hit the number of markets that we think we should be in and then our business should continue to grow faster than our spend would. So then the biggest expense is also the biggest variable and that's the online advertising. We're very pleased with what we've seen with the efficiency over the last couple of quarters, but we've had three years before that of seeing pressure on that metric and pressure on ROIs year-over-year. And so it's difficult to predict what will happen there for the future. I have great confidence that we are probably better positioned than anybody else in the market with the most choices to try and convert that paid traffic into a booking on the best websites, the best converting websites from a desktop and mobile perspective with the most clever advertising teams really tailoring our bidding approach and using best-in-class tools to make sure that we spend our money efficiently. So I like our competitive hand there, but I think that it's very difficult to predict exactly how it's going to play out in the future. We have a couple of good quarters in the books there. Michael Olson - Piper Jaffray & Co (Broker): Thank you. Daniel J. Finnegan - Chief Financial Officer & Chief Accounting Officer: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Mark Mahaney with RBC Capital Markets. You may begin.

Mark Mahaney - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Management

Okay. Let me try two questions please. Booking.com for Business, it's something that seems to be – I mean, you've had it for a while but you maybe have emphasized it a little bit more these last two quarters, so could you talk about the growth strategy there and how material that is to business today? And then secondly, the China outbound market, I know you've called out the Chinese New Year for Q1 and I know this is still a relatively small part of your business, but could you also talk about the materiality there and anything unusual you're seeing in terms of the growth of that segment, particularly the China outbound market? Thank you. Darren Richard Huston - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Okay. Thanks a lot, Mark. So Booking.com for Business, it's worth giving a little bit of background. So we – our sites has primarily been targeted at leisure and over time we've seen more customers come in for business purposes. And that's when we started to make some changes to our site and see if we could get positive conversion and that seem to work. So now you can go on to our site and say am I traveling for leisure or business, if you pick business we highlight things important to business people and they seem to like that. We've also discovered that about 20% of our business is business bookings versus leisure bookings. And the thesis of course is that nobody really knows, but maybe half of travels business, it could be more or less than that, but that points to a pretty big opportunity if we serve the customer wealth. So then secondly, we built a very simple tool that allows the systems to book for business people, it allows you…

Mark Mahaney - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Management

Thank you, Darren. Darren Richard Huston - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Heath Terry with Goldman Sachs. You may begin. Heath Terry - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Great. Thanks. I know chain hotels are a much smaller part of your mix, but Hilton in particular has been kind of vocal over the last few months about ending last room night availability, and MFN pricing. And they now seem to be getting pretty aggressive in marketing their channels against the OTAs. What do you believe is driving these efforts? And are you seeing any other chains beginning to make similar moves? Darren Richard Huston - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Heath. Yeah, as you point out, depending on what you call a chain, we booked 10% to 15% of our business as a combination of global and regional chains. And we're always in contract negotiations with the chains. In fact our take rate is quite stable. With many chains we never or had last room availability, but over time they've given us more availability, partly because it's good business. We bring in a transient traveler. Very few of our travelers stay at the same hotel twice. And this is valuable business because it's incremental. I think what you are seeing is discomfort with maybe the way the world is changing, but you should know our relationships are quite tight. There's also a difference between the chain and the owner of the hotel. I mean, the owner of the hotel wants more of this kind of business, and most of them want to lean into our model. For me, the average chain hotel only gets about half of the business that should be coming to us, partly because of all of these restrictions that are put on it. But many chain owners are also agitating to make sure they get their fair share because the business they're not getting is either going to another chain or it's going to an independent hotel. So, yeah, I don't appreciate some of the actions that get taken at the chain level at times, but our relationships on a day-to-day basis are actually quite constructive and cordial, and our Chain business is actually quite healthy. They have great product, our customers want the product. And most of our customers when they come to Washington DC for instance, they're not looking for the Hilton or the Marriott in Washington, they're looking for a great bed in Washington. And our ranking system presents to them business is well priced. And if the product is not well priced or it's not available, it's not going to convert, and therefore it won't be presented to the customer. That's basically the way it works. And I'm always hopeful we can work through many of these issues when they arise. Heath Terry - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Great. Thanks, Darren. I appreciate the color. Darren Richard Huston - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Justin Post with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. You may begin.

Justin Post - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Thank you. Darren, maybe you could comment a little bit about your philosophy on vacation rentals charging the owner as opposed to the renter? Obviously, one of your competitors is going through a transition, why you like that business model? And then Dan, could you quantify at all the Paris impact in Q4? And maybe the Easter impact in Q1? And then Europe really had some good RevPAR over the summer last year. I know you won't guide 2Q or 3Q, but how do you think about those comps in Europe as you approach the summer? Thank you. Darren Richard Huston - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks Justin. Our model, partly the reason we get to our model is we default to it. That's the way and our entire business works. But if you look at our take rate in vacation rentals where we are charging the vacation rental owner and HomeAway or Airbnb, we'll charge a lot to the consumer. The take rates are actually quite equivalent when you look at the total take rate. I think anyone would rather charge to the owner, but if you don't have instantly verifiable deal then you might be worried that the owner is going to say, well, the person never showed up or he didn't stay or we didn't close the transaction. So we're actually in an enviable position to be able to do it the way we do. Obviously, I don't think I've ever met a consumer who likes to pay fees, and we're betting that consumers won't want to pay fees, but more importantly what we're trying to do is make booking a vacation rental or a home or an apartment as easy as booking a hotel room with the same level of trust, with the same…

Justin Post - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Management

Great. Thank you. Daniel J. Finnegan - Chief Financial Officer & Chief Accounting Officer: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Douglas Anmuth with JPMorgan. You may begin.

Douglas T. Anmuth - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Thanks for taking the question. I just wanted to go back, Dan, to the comments kind of post-Paris and the 10 points of impact that you mentioned, and just in particular was there something that you can point out that drove such a strong bounce back in terms of business? And was there anything that you guys did marketing or promotion-wise that really contributed there? And then secondly if you could give us an update on the BookingSuite business as well? Thanks. Daniel J. Finnegan - Chief Financial Officer & Chief Accounting Officer: So in terms of Paris, there was nothing – I mean, our approach with advertising day in and day out is very consistent. So we're looking to generate as much business as we can at a reasonable ROI, and we didn't change anything that caused the trajectory of the business to change. That was consistent. And I think it's just amazing the resilience of people, that even a horrific event like those attacks in Paris, in a relatively short amount of time people became comfortable again with the idea of traveling. Paris still isn't back to where it was pre-attack for us as a share of our business, but has bounced back from where it was. And so I think we benefit also from being a global player with so many different choices where people can travel to, but if they're not comfortable with a particular destination they can find other places where they may feel more comfortable with traveling. So really just the resilience would be the one thing that we'd point to that, thank God there were no additional attacks and so the business bounced back. Darren Richard Huston - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: On Just on BookingSuite, we feel really good about the business. We don't have any numbers to share for competitive reasons. But we've built up a team, we added a new product, PriceMatch, it's a revenue management cloud-based tool, in 2015, which has been a nice addition. But generally, the demand for the product is very high and it's been as much an issue, how do we fulfill the demand for the team. But I'm proud of where it's at and we hope 2016 will be another big year for BookingSuite.

Douglas T. Anmuth - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Management

Okay. Thank you, both.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Ken Sena with Evercore Partners. You may begin.

Ken Sena - Evercore Group LLC

Management

Hi. Thank you. Can you maybe just, in terms of the bookings acceleration, talk a little bit more maybe about the vacation rental contribution, and maybe the opportunity there? And then anything on the hotel room night side also? And then you mentioned that IB for TripAdvisor won't be a significant, it won't offer significant impact to the top line or add efficiency, but maybe can you expand on that a bit from a branding standpoint and how satisfied you are with the partnership right now, or the product? Thank you. Darren Richard Huston - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think I can take both of those, Ken. Well, on vacation rentals generally, and I would say self-catered product, as well is what we call it, this includes apartments and homes and aparthotels, that part of the market has traditionally had a lot more friction in it than the hotel booking side. And as that friction gets removed you begin to see growth. Certainly, there is the Airbnb effect of this being a new way to travel, but more importantly for large groups, families; booking a self-catered product or a home is actually a really good deal, the price value equation looks great. But it's always had all kinds of friction around, well, is it going be there? Where does my money go? They want a deposit, et cetera, et cetera. And as we remove those points of friction, we're seeing good growth in that area. I don't have any numbers to share but that space is growing faster than our core business, which is what you would hope. And we feel like we have plenty of demand as we get ready supply to fill those rooms with guests who are looking for them. The other question was on Instant Book, yeah, it's still very early days, but we're happy with the way that TripAdvisor has fulfilled their side of the deal. The branding looks great. It seems to, particularly in the U.S. market where the early rollout has been, where the Booking.com brand is not as strong, I think that's helped us a lot. They're now rolling out in the markets maybe where we're stronger, maybe we'll help them a bit, where our brand might even be stronger than TripAdvisor's. But I think from a mutual perspective, it's been positive. There's a lot yet to optimize, but we sort of think about it as, wow, we've got an ad and we have a performance tool to drive more business and that's always a real positive thing for the company. I'm still, by the way, optimistic, still very supportive and let's see where things end up as Steve and his team get to roll this product out to more markets.

Ken Sena - Evercore Group LLC

Management

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Lloyd Walmsley with Deutsche Bank. You may begin.

Lloyd Walmsley - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Thanks for taking the questions; two if I can. First, just there's been a lot of changes in rate parity regulations in France and Germany and wondering if you guys are seeing any discernible trends in how hotels in France may be responding to the Macron Law, how it's impacting conversion and how you think this ultimately plays out in the E.U.? And then second question, similar, the Innovation Box tax regime in the Netherlands seems like it's in a bit of flux, can you just give us a sense of how much of your pre-tax income flows through at the reduced tax rate and how you think either rates or the magnitude of the shield are likely to change over the next few years? Or perhaps maybe grandfathering gives you a long period of time before you see this, any comments on either of those? Darren Richard Huston - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Okay. I will take the first one, Dan you take the second. We haven't seen any major impacts, but it's been a great experimental bed and I think one of the biggest learnings, and I had mentioned this in a previous comment, is customers aren't going to overpay for product. So if the properties are free to price the product the way they went to price it, but if it's overpriced then it won't convert and then they don't get any business. So in a way, the marketplace has this self-actualization to it, regardless of what the rules are. We still believe parity is a very important construct. We think it frankly offers a lot of opportunity also for the properties to have a level playing field so that we're not using our margins to undercut them. But I'm now more comfortable with any…

Lloyd Walmsley - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Management

Okay. Thanks, guys. Daniel J. Finnegan - Chief Financial Officer & Chief Accounting Officer: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Peter Stabler with Wells Fargo Securities. You may begin.

Peter C. Stabler - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Management

Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions; a couple of quick ones. First, regarding the bidding program that allows your hotel partners to improve their ranking in the results, wondering if you could comment on the appetite you're seeing for that in the market? And is participation large enough here to impact blended take rates? Or is it really kind of a non-material service offering that you're presenting to the market? And secondly quickly, any expectation for negative impact due to Zika virus fears? Thanks. Darren Richard Huston - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Okay, Peter. So the first one I'll take. I think, first of all, it's important to understand how the ranking algorithm works. The primary driver of helping us get ranked is conversion. So it really is consumer interest, and you always have to be very careful on how you balance monetization with consumer interest, because if you overweight on monetization you can have a really poor quality result and then no one once wants to come to your website. So at least the way we've done it in the past is we have standard hotels and preferred hotels, and preferred hotels are only allowed to become preferred if they meet a number of experience criteria. And then they pay us a slightly higher commission and can often as much as double their bookings by being preferred. That's been our primary driver. The second one, we do allow some override, they're not used broadly, but a hotel can pay us even more commissions if they want. Say, it's a new hotel, they don't have a lot of reviews or something to try to get a slightly higher ranking, but we never allow them ultimately to buy the very top of the ranking from the very bottomed. It doesn't work that way. So we feel comfortable with the model that we have. I think it's a very – like in any auction site, you have to be really careful with this dial, because you think you might win a monetization, but if you crap up the product then you're not going to have any customers. So that's the way I think about it. And your next question was – Dan, I think you want to take Zika? Yeah. Daniel J. Finnegan - Chief Financial Officer & Chief Accounting Officer: So Zika virus, Peter, thus far we haven't seen a significant impact. Most of the travel within southern hemisphere is from other destinations in southern hemisphere, so it's generally people traveling from an area that's been impacted to another area that's impacted. And so we haven't seen it as deterring travel. We don't want to predict what the impact could be for the future, but that's been the impact to-date.

Peter C. Stabler - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Management

Thanks so much. Daniel J. Finnegan - Chief Financial Officer & Chief Accounting Officer: You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Darren Huston. Darren Richard Huston - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. I guess just in conclusion, we're really pleased with the quarter. I hope you are. It's nice to end the year where we're growing faster than when we entered the year at our size and scale. We always are facing the law of large numbers, but a big thanks to all of our people and mostly just great execution and seeing a lot of growth initiatives begin to pay off is a great feeling. So thanks all for joining the call, and we'll see you next quarter.