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Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Fri, Nov 6, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. Welcome to today's Builders FirstSource's Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded and will be archived at www.bldr.com. It is now my pleasure to introduce Ms. Jennifer Pasquino, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Jennifer Pasquino - SVP Investor Relations, Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Thank you. Good morning and welcome to Builders FirstSource's third quarter 2015 earnings conference call. Joining me today on the call is Floyd Sherman, Chief Executive Officer of Builders FirstSource; and Chad Crow, President and Chief Financial Officer. A copy of the slide presentation referenced on this call is available on the Investor Relations sections of the Builders FirstSource website at www.bldr.com. The presentation was posted this morning. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. Any reproduction of this call in whole or in part is not permitted without prior written authorization of Builders FirstSource. And as a reminder, this conference call is being recorded today, November 6, 2015. Builders FirstSource issued a press release after the market closed yesterday. If you don't have a copy, you can find it on our website. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the course of this conference call, we may make statements concerning the company's future prospects, financial results, business strategies, and industry trends. Such statements are considered forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Please refer to our most recent Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and other reports filed with the SEC for more information on those risks. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. The acquisition of ProBuild closed on July 31, 2015, the closing date. As a result, ProBuild's financial results are only included in the combined company's financial statements from the closing date forward and are not reflected in the combined company's historic financial statements. Therefore, we have provided supplemental financial information of the combined company in this press release that is pro forma or adjusted to include ProBuild's financial results for the relevant periods prior to the closing date. The company will discuss these pro forma and adjusted results on this call. We've provided reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to their GAAP equivalents in our earnings press release and detailed explanations of non-GAAP financial measures in our Form 8-K filed yesterday, both of which are available on our website. At this time, it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Mr. Floyd Sherman.

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

Thank you, and good morning. We welcome you to our third quarter 2015 earnings call. Before I give a brief recap of the current quarter, I'd like to discuss the acquisition of ProBuild and provide an update on the integration and progress against the cost savings initiatives, then I'll give a brief recap of the current quarter and turn the call over to Chad who will discuss our financial results in more detail. After my closing comments regarding our outlook, we'll take your questions. Let's begin our discussion on slide five with an overview of the key benefits of the ProBuild combination. On July 31, 2015, we completed the acquisition of ProBuild, one of the largest distributors of building materials to professional builders, contractors, and project-oriented consumers in the United States. Through the – its lumber yards, component facilities, millwork, gypsum yards and retail stores across 40 states, ProBuild generated approximately $4.5 billion in sales in 2014. The combination of Builders FirstSource and ProBuild creates a clear industry leader, with expanded growth and margin opportunities, enabling a broader more efficient platform of manufacturing and distribution capabilities going forward. We believe the benefits of the acquisition include increased scale and diversification; a market presence in 74 MSAs of the top 100 MSAs, and 24 MSAs of the top 25 MSAs; opportunity to expand sales of higher margin products and services; a $100 million to $120 million of targeted run rate cost savings before one-time expenses; and certainly favorable timing given the projected housing market recovery and long-term growth potential. Now that we're a few months past the acquisition close, I'm eager to share with you an update on the ProBuild integration efforts. We're making great strides in combining our organization into one company. All aspects of the integration including system conversions…

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

Thank you, Floyd. Good morning, everyone. As a reminder, we have reflected pro forma adjusted figures to include ProBuild financial results prior to the closing date. Turning to slide eight; for the quarter, we've reported pro forma sales of $1.7 billion, which were flat compared to the third quarter of 2014. Sales volume grew approximately 7% in the homebuilding end market and 3% in the repair/remodel end market, which was offset 6.1% by the negative impact of commodity price deflation on our sales and 0.1% from closed locations. Breaking down our pro forma sales by key product categories excluding the impact of closed locations, manufactured products were $284.6 million, up 5% from $270.9 million in the third quarter 2014. Windows, doors, and millwork were $342.7 million, up 6%; lumber and lumber sheet goods were $554.4 million, down $34.3 million or 5.8% from approximately $558.7 million in 2014. From a product mix standpoint, our value-add product categories made up a higher percentage of overall pro forma sales. As our prefabricated components, windows, doors and millwork categories accounted for 37% of adjusted sales in the current quarter compared to 35% last year. Our lumber and lumber sheet goods declined as a percentage of sales from 35% in the third quarter of 2014 to 33% this year. Our other building products and services categories were relatively flat compared to last year. Our pro forma gross margin percentage was 25.9%, up approximately 160 basis points from 24.3% last year. Our gross margin percentage increased largely due to improved customer pricing, commodity price deflation, and a higher mix of value-added sales. Pro forma interest expense was $43.2 million, excluding certain one-time financing costs and normalizing for the incremental debt issued to finance the ProBuild acquisition. Pro forma income tax expense in the third quarter of…

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

Thank you, Chad. We continue to believe the long-term outlook for the housing industry remains positive. Our focus will be to leverage our national scale and sales capability to grow faster than the market, while maintaining a focus on improving overall profitability. By leveraging our sales expertise and national manufacturing capabilities, we believe our company is well-positioned to help homebuilders mitigate the impact of well-publicized labor shortages. Specifically, our value-added products provide alternatives to on job site construction and associated labor delays. I remain convinced that the combination of Builders FirstSource and ProBuild will create significant value for our shareholders and customers alike in the years to come. We're fortunate to now have the industry's largest professionally trained sales force, the greatest depth and breadth of products in the industry, and state-of-the-art manufacturing capabilities. These strengths, our scale and the potential leverage provided by the synergy savings combines to make Builders FirstSource that is a greater than the sum of the parts. This combination represents important opportunities to enhance our growth potential. And, we expect to be further assisted by the continued recovery in the housing market along with the strengthening of lumber and lumber sheet goods pricing. I've never been more excited about the future prospects for our company, as well as our industry. In my travels over the last few months, I've had the pleasure to meet with so many of the great associates from ProBuild. I'm impressed with the exceptional pool of talent we have across our combined organization and I'm confident that we will together form the strongest team in the industry. I must thank all of our employees not only for all their hard work and dedication in making the integration a success, but for continuing to produce the solid financial performance that they have in spite of the many headwinds and distractions they've had to deal with. And now, I'll turn the call over to the operator for Q&A.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. We'll take our first question from Rob Hansen with Deutsche Bank.

Rob G. Hansen - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Thanks. So the first question I would ask about was just the prefabricated business. With a lot of the builders talking about delays and labor shortages and whatnot, what are your sales people telling you in terms of builders making enquiries to you and possibly increasing that business?

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

Yeah, we are continuing to see an increasing demand for our products. Certainly, the builders are much more receptive to the use of the manufactured components in the construction cycle. This goes for both single-family, multi-family, light commercial, and the – so, we're seeing a continued increase in interest as well as use of our products.

Rob G. Hansen - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

And I think, this – in this business, right, you're somewhere around 60% capacity. Can you just kind of talk about where you have a – you are a little bit lower on that capacity utilization, where you are higher; does the demand for the pre-fab business kind of match on a market basis?

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

You know, Rob, I would say the traditional markets that would use pre-fab more consistently would be kind of the Mid-Atlantic area, it's not a product that has over the years at least historically had a lot traction in Texas, but we are starting to see that pick-up. So I would say right now our plants at max – or not maximum, but at the most capacity utilization would be more in the Mid-Atlantic region, and then maybe some of the lesser utilization would be West of the Mississippi, right now.

Rob G. Hansen - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

And you folks aren't seeing any shortage of labor on year-end, is that correct?

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

The struggle for us has been drivers, which has eased up a little bit. I would say the biggest issue for us right now is still truss designers. That's where we see the biggest labor shortage right now.

Rob G. Hansen - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And then one last quick one was just on the – just more of a housekeeping question on the – what's your LTM pro forma debt? I'm sorry, EBITDA, on an adjusted basis?

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

Let me get back with you on that. I don't have the LTMs in front of me.

Rob G. Hansen - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Okay, thanks.

Operator

Operator

Okay. Next we'll go to Matt McCall with BB&T Capital Markets. Matthew Scott McCall - BB&T Capital Markets: Thanks. Good morning, everybody.

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

Good morning.

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

Good morning. Matthew Scott McCall - BB&T Capital Markets: Maybe follow-up on the last one. When we think about the shift that you've seen toward more value-add, away from lumber, and you think about the inclusion of ProBuild, maybe some continued mix shifts in – at Builders. Can you talk about how we should think about that number as we head into 2016, what that mix should look like as we exit maybe next year?

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

I think, we'll continue to see strengthening in the truss and panel components. I would say by the end of next year, just kind of rough guess, we might be up as a percentage of total sales another 2%, something like that.

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

Yeah. I think, long-term, we certainly are looking to get that percentage over 40%. A lot of the percentage, if you look at it, is going to be how strong a recovery are we going to see in commodity pricing and what that does then to the mix, on a mix percentage, but certainly on a anticipated commodity basis, I would hope we're up closer to the 40% by the end of next year; 38% to 39%, I think, would be a number that we ought to be able to achieve.

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

Of total value add.

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

Yeah.

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

Not just truss and panel.

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

Yeah. Matthew Scott McCall - BB&T Capital Markets: Okay.

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

No work there. (21:16)

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

Yeah. Matthew Scott McCall - BB&T Capital Markets: And, maybe tying that into the gross margin improvement. You have that 160 basis points. You – I think, you broke out some of the benefits; I wrote down pricing deflation, and I missed the last one or last couple, but can you talk about what drove – maybe breakdown that 160 basis points – what drove the gross margin improvement, how much mix moving toward value-add helped. Just some of the components there and then anything that we should keep in mind as we're modeling the future?

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

I would say, of the 160 improvement, you're probably looking about 65 basis points of that was due to commodity price deflation, because we do get a tailwind from that. And then I would say – that leaves us 95 basis points. I would probably say, yes, two-thirds of that is more mix-generated.

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

Mix. You're right.

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

And then you'll have a little bit of volume in there.

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

And then also the rest that we have seen, a conservative effort on the part of the sales force to improve their pricing...

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

Right, in pricing.

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

And as the market has expanded, we also have the ability to get better pricing. So, I think those are the – combination of those factors. Matthew Scott McCall - BB&T Capital Markets: Okay. Okay. And then the last one I have – seeing a bit of a divergence between the growth of starts and the growth of completions and a lot of that obviously could be tied to the labor issues that were discussed in the last questions. But are we to the point now where this has become enough of a trend that maybe we should start to look at the combination of these two or the average starts growth in – with the average completions growth to get an idea of what your growth rate is going to look like, because I think your growth rate was 7%, that would be about an average of what we saw from a growth rate, from a starts perspective and completions kind of together. Is that making any sense? Is that the way you're starting to look at it or is it still starts that you're focused on?

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

I think that the delay in construction is certainly impacting the cycle time. And so, I think, what you said – what you just said makes sense, because there is definitely an extended time now from a permit to a start to a completion.

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

Yeah. And I think you've also got to look – continue to look at units under construction. So, that units under construction is really where the building process, where most of our products are starting to go on to the – to the job site. And then that flows through to a completion and a sale. Matthew Scott McCall - BB&T Capital Markets: Okay. All right. Thank you guys.

Operator

Operator

Now, we'll go to Mike Dahl with Credit Suisse. Michael G. Dahl - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. Just to follow-up on the last line of questioning. I mean, obviously if we look at some of the homebuilder results, it's – these delays are really extending to the point, where a lot of volume is getting pushed out into at least early next year and it sounds like, the builders are kind of planning for this to continue through most of next year. So, in that context, I guess, could you give us any color around current trends or fourth quarter expectations for growth rates? Should we be looking for anything different than what you've just seen, I guess, from a volume standpoint, obviously some differences in commodity lumber pricing. But any color you can give on more near term?

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

I think, you'll see volume growth fairly similar to what we saw this last quarter, but unfortunately, I think, with the deflation we're facing, that's going to wipe out a lot of the volume growth we get from a top line basis. So, I would say, it's probably going to be more the same. Michael G. Dahl - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Got it. And then just, it's – since so many puts and takes around the margin and mix, and the commodity deflation, I guess, same question I know was asked, but, just any more granularity or color around just in terms of the near-term? What's realistic to think about in terms of just like the go forward margins, because there's obviously then also seasonality involved right now?

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

Right. From a gross margin standpoint, we – the commodity deflation that we have seen this year, as you know, provides a little bit of a margin tailwind although long-term we would certainly like higher lumber prices, and it's much better for business, and then EBITDA growth. So, I would say, if we continue to see flattening and improving commodity lumber prices, I would say from a gross margin standpoint, we're probably looking at something 50 basis points or so lower than the quarter we just had.

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

Yeah. I think, low 25s.

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

Yeah. Michael G. Dahl - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Okay.

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

But again – I'll take the short-term margin compression to get strengthening commodity lumber prices any day. Michael G. Dahl - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Right. Right. And then final one from me, just housekeeping. Any change to run rates on items like D&A and also, I know, you provide the snapshot saying pro forma, interest expense would be $174 million for the year. Is that kind of how we should think about that for next year or two years, since there's no real debt pay down until the second half?

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

Yeah. I think that's pretty close from an interest standpoint. Go forward D&A on a quarterly basis, you are looking at about $25 million of depreciation and probably $8 million or so of amortization. That looks like where the amortization and depreciation is going to shakeout after we do our step-up in our acquisition accounting. Michael G. Dahl - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Okay. Great. Thanks a lot.

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

Just real quick to follow-up on Rob's initial question, I'm running about $305 million of the adjusted LTM EBITDA right now. So, we can go to the next question now.

Operator

Operator

Okay. We'll take the next question from Will Randow with Citi.

Will Randow - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi.

Hey. Good morning. And thanks for taking my questions.

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

You bet.

Will Randow - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi.

In terms of your Texas exposure, can you talk about your experience there in terms of demand in light of obviously strength in DFW seems like Austin is soft, and are more soft, and then the latest Houston permits being down 40% for August and September?

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

So, what was your question for – just as far as Texas in general?

Will Randow - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi.

Yeah. What are you experiencing there in the market? I mean, are the...?

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

Yeah. Dallas-Fort Worth is still very strong. You are correct. In Houston, seeing some slowdown there. I think, through September in Houston, we're showing single family permits down around 3%. The biggest slowdown so far in Houston has been on the multifamily side, but obviously overall on a relative basis, Houston is still very strong for us. Maybe some softening in Austin and San Antonio, but from what I'm seeing all-in-all Texas is still a very strong market for us.

Will Randow - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi.

Okay. And what was your total exposure to Texas, I forgot?

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

About 17% of our sales.

Will Randow - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi.

Okay. And, then just one follow-up in terms of synergies, can you talk about the progress you've experienced there since July particularly with regards to procurement savings?

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

Well, at the end of the third quarter, we were on about a $30 million run rate. I think, by year end, we'll be close to $50 million. Best guess now of that $50 million, it would be about $15 million of procurement.

Will Randow - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citi.

Okay. Thanks for that. And, congrats on the quarter.

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

We'll next go to Kenneth Williamson with JPMorgan.

Kenneth L. Williamson - JPMorgan Investment Management, Inc.

Analyst

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I had – just wanted to get a little bit more detail on what exactly you're seeing in the way of commodity deflations, is this only affecting your lumber side of the business or are there other products that are being affected by deflation?

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

Primarily, with the lumber and lumber sheet goods, we have seen a little bit of back-off in pricing on roofing as well as gypsum, but it's been very small, the rest of our products, we have seen some inflation. The – so, but the real effects of deflation are all centered around the lumber and lumber sheet.

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

Yeah. When you go through an extended period of lower prices it will start to impact your components as well.

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

Yeah.

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

Since, you obviously use those same products in your trusses and panels.

Kenneth L. Williamson - JPMorgan Investment Management, Inc.

Analyst

Got you. Okay. So, what do you view as the biggest driver for that or what do you view needs to change for prices to start to move the other way?

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

I think, it's strictly a matter of the manufacturers of – especially now in the lumber category to get their output close or match to what the demands of the marketplace is. I think, one of the things certainly that has affected our pricing here has been the fall off of the China market and that has caused the Canadian mills to push a lot more material down into the U.S. market and that has really contributed to some of the problems that we've had. The U.S. mills have done a better job from what we can see in trying to get their production matched up with the demand for housing, I think, a lot of people got way ahead of themselves. I think, some of the forecast for housing led to the mills adding additional shifts and adding people. And they were reluctant to, I think, back away from and absorb those costs that they had for starting up the increased production. OSB manufacturers have certainly done a much better job of getting their output in line with the demands of the market, and I think, we've seen 16 straight weeks of improving OSB pricing. That's very encouraging to us, and it looks like – we're all hopeful that we at least hold it and not start back, that we still have a long ways to go to get up to traditional levels of pricing. But I think that will come as the demand in housing continues to increase and the mills become – get better at matching up their output to the demands of the market, and a return of – and certainly a return of the China market will help pull away some of the excess capacity.

Kenneth L. Williamson - JPMorgan Investment Management, Inc.

Analyst

Thanks. That's very helpful. I guess just someone who's fairly new to following your business, just – when you look at the supply – you mentioned key suppliers in particular pushing some of that supply down into the U.S., they would have normally gone to Canada. What percentage typically from those Canadian suppliers is exported to China?

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

The – you really probably should get that number from the Canadian sources, but from what we have been able to see, somewhere close to 30% of the Canadian lumber output was going into the China market. And what made it really a lot more difficult is that a lot of that material is lower grade material. And when that got cut off, they really pushed the number three grade into the U.S., because they had to have a place to go with it, and it really drove the pricing on number three to extremely low levels; half of what it was a year ago. And that was a real major contributing factor to the fall in lumber prices.

Kenneth L. Williamson - JPMorgan Investment Management, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. That's very helpful.

Operator

Operator

Okay. Now, we'll go to Nick Coppola with Thompson Research Group.

Nicholas Andrew Coppola - Thompson Research Group LLC

Analyst

Hi. Good morning.

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

Hi, Nick.

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

Good morning, Nick.

Nicholas Andrew Coppola - Thompson Research Group LLC

Analyst

So, any further read you can provide on expectations for revenue synergies? So maybe, I think you talked about initiatives to get more value-add sales through the ProBuild footprint and maybe any success in getting them into new customers?

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

Nick, that's just such a soft number and you'd have to make a lot of assumptions in coming up with some calculations. As we've talked about before, we obviously do feel like there are revenue synergies, but to try to put a number on that, I just wouldn't be comfortable.

Nicholas Andrew Coppola - Thompson Research Group LLC

Analyst

Is there anything quantitative, like to point to progress there.

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

We continue to look at ramping up their sales efforts on the truss and panel side, and looking at expanding some of the other product categories, for instance gypsum and roofing into the BFS side, but we're still so fresh into the acquisition that so far – thus far it's just been more discussions with the sales force and getting them up to speed on some of the newer products that they may be required to sell, but I would say so far that any progress has been minimal.

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

Yeah. I think, all of our focus really has been on retaining our sales force, retaining the customers. That's a – that was a very, very important part of the – of your first six months or so, and that's got to be stabilized and you want to make sure that your sales force is – has been retained, and that we haven't lost any bleed-off of customers to competitors. And after – once you're through that initial phase then you'll begin looking at how do you increase the sale of the value-added products throughout the organization. The – that is a longer-term proposition, but one in which we've been very successful in the past in Builders FirstSource, as has ProBuild. We've had a higher concentration of it in our mix, because there a lot more emphasis was placed on it and we'll do the same and that's going to be the direction as we go forward.

Nicholas Andrew Coppola - Thompson Research Group LLC

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. And then, also wanted to ask just about regional highlights in the quarter. You talked about Texas a bit, but any other areas of strength or weakness in volumes across your business, especially now with your larger footprint?

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

Yeah, there's certainly – North Carolina and Florida continue to be very positive to our business. We've seen, from ProBuild, the California market is certainly showing some good strength this year. The Northwest, Alaska, again, we've seen improvement and good sales gains in those areas. So, I think it's coming from a combination of factors. Certainly the largest states that we do business with, as Chad has said, was Texas and the Carolinas, Florida; they certainly are the largest states.

Nicholas Andrew Coppola - Thompson Research Group LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thanks for taking my questions.

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

You bet.

Operator

Operator

Now, we'll go to Trey Grooms with Stephens.

Trey H. Grooms - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Hey, good morning, guys.

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

Good morning, Trey.

Trey H. Grooms - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

I guess, my first question is on – probably for Chad. On SG&A, how should we be thinking about that with the combined company now, with any seasonality into the fourth quarter? How should we think about SG&A I guess for fourth quarter and then as we look into next year as a percent of sales, any changes you'd expect there?

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

Well, the business will be more seasonal now, obviously, with a greater presence in the northern regions. So, it will drag our results in Q4 and Q1 a little more than historically it would have at Builders. But, we do have a lot of the cost saves that we're going to be putting in as well. So, all-in-all, I think we're still going to be able to do a very nice job of mitigating a lot of the seasonality with some of the cost saving initiatives that we're going to put in place.

Trey H. Grooms - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

But as far as SG&A specifically, I understand that there's puts and takes right now with lumber deflation and that's kind of a headwind as far as leveraging that SG&A. What is – should we see a sequential change though? I think, this quarter it was at 22% or 23% of sales somewhere at ballpark. Should we be thinking about it differently in 4Q or no?

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

I would say due to the seasonality, it will probably increase as a percent of sales, but with some of that being offset by the cost saving initiatives that we've put in place.

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

(40:05) that's got a lot of one-time cost flowing through that – in that number.

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

Yeah. I'm talking on a excluding one-time cost, integration cost basis.

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

Yeah.

Trey H. Grooms - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Right, right. Okay, got you.

Jennifer Pasquino - SVP Investor Relations, Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Do you remember that – Trey, just remember that Builder – ProBuild had a much larger presence in Alaska, in the Midwest and the Northeast where there is less building activities. So, your fixed cost do drive your percentage of SG&A up a little bit more in the first quarter and fourth quarter than what you would have historically seen in Builders.

Trey H. Grooms - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

I understood.

Jennifer Pasquino - SVP Investor Relations, Builders FirstSource, Inc.

Management

Yeah.

Trey H. Grooms - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

And, that shift from – I guess from the third quarter to fourth quarter, it is going to be more seasonal, but it is there when you're looking at that is there other things that are contributing that could help offset some of that seasonality like the prefabricated components piece or anything else that would be a positive as we look into the 4Q, a positive contributor?

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

Yeah. The cost saves as they begin to take more effect will be positive, and then hopefully we'll continue to see strengthening in lumber prices, which obviously helps us lever our SG&A even better.

Trey H. Grooms - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Okay.

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

And I think we're going to continue to expand the value-add products. They are certainly the higher margin products for us.

Trey H. Grooms - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And thanks for that. And then on the better pricing that you noted, can you just kind of give us a sense of what's going on in the competitive environment? Are you seeing some improvement there that's allowing for better pricing?

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

I think really overall, Trey, I think, it's – the environment is similar to what we experienced back in the second quarter. Certainly, as the starts improve and there's more work available, it does ease somewhat and the builders become more concerned as to getting their – the products that they need and services on-time and complete. I would say, there's been a slight improvement in the competitiveness. It's – we're not seeing nearly some of the way off the reservation pricing that we had been going through, that seems to have abated. I think that's a positive. So yeah, it's certainly better than what it was last year, and I think that is going to continue to improve, and that certainly has helped us in our ability to increase margins. And I think at the same time, I think our people probably feel that a little bit more aggressive when they're going into pricing that, they're not going to be just totally shot out of the saddle. So, I would say overall, yeah, it's the environment has continued to improve. Chad, you might?

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

No, that's consistent. I would agree with that.

Trey H. Grooms - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

That's good. That's encouraging. And then, outside of lumber, windows, doors, gypsum, roofing, all the other exciting, the other things that you have now, where you've got, I think, a little more exposure to these other things, now with ProBuild. What are your expectations for pricing outside of lumber going into next year as far as you know from your suppliers there? Any indication of kind of what to be expecting there as we look into 2016?

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

Yeah. Our suppliers, I think, everyone is looking to have some increase in their price of the manufactures of products. I think we have shown and we have seen some of that certainly this year, and we've been able to pass those increases on, where in the past that wasn't the case, when vendors were increasing prices. But at the same time, we are really – we've already started working very closely with all of our suppliers and certainly the major suppliers, and showing them the attractiveness of our package and giving people the opportunities to look at increasing their involvement with the company, and hopefully we're going to see some benefits that spin out of that, at least that's what we're anticipating. So, all-in-all, I think we're going to see – we're going to see higher prices from the vendors. I think we're going to be able to pass it on. And but I – and I think we're going to be able to negotiate for ourselves some improved programs and so forth that will enable us to really help in the sale of those products. There's a lot of things that vendors can do to help you improve your share of the market and be more aggressive in the marketplace. So...

Trey H. Grooms - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

All right, makes sense. Thanks for that, Floyd. And then my last one is, Chad, I think historically, you've given us kind of what the sensitivity is to lumber on a 10% change. I think you gave it to us on a standalone basis. I don't have the, or haven't heard the new sensitivity to lumber. So, a 10% change equals X dollars of change in EBITDA for the combined company. Do you have that or could you share that with us?

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

Yeah, if you had a 10% change and everything else being equal and that 10% change being in effect for an extended period of time. You'd probably be looking on a combined company basis about a $35 million impact to EBITDA.

Trey H. Grooms - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. That's all I needed. Thanks a lot, guys. Have a – good luck with the rest of the quarter and have a good weekend.

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

Okay, you too.

Operator

Operator

Now, we'll go to Jay McCanless with Sterne, Agee. Mr. McCanless, your line is open.

Jay McCanless - Sterne Agee

Analyst

Hi. My questions have been answered. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Okay. We'll next go to Fritz Leo with Raj Global (47:12).

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Hi, guys. Good morning. Just a quick question. Can you give me any idea what your cash taxes are going to be like over the next quarter and into 2016?

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

Cash taxes will be close to zero. We're sitting on a fairly large NOL right now, and so in any given quarter, you may have $1 million or $2 million in cash taxes, it's going to be small.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Okay. And you had mentioned this on the road show, but can you remind me kind of where your target leverage is kind of – I know you're obviously in delivering mode at the moment, but long-term what's your target leverage?

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

Yeah. I would say 3 times, 3.5 times.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

And that's net or gross?

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

Net.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Net, okay. Thank you very much. That's all. Thank you.

M. Chad Crow - President, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And there are no further questions at this time. So, I'd like to turn it back over to our speakers for any additional or closing remarks.

Floyd F. Sherman - Chief Executive Officer and Director

Management

Okay. We – I certainly appreciate everyone joining the call today. We look forward to updating you on the progress of the integration and our business initiatives in the months ahead. And if you have any follow-up questions, please don't hesitate to give Chad or Jen Pasquino a call. And again, thanks and have a good day.

Operator

Operator

And that does conclude today's conference. We thank everyone again for their participation.