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Banco Macro S.A. (BMA)

Q4 2023 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 29, 2024

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. And at this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Banco Macro's fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call. We would like to inform you that the fourth-quarter 2023 press release is available to download at the Investor Relations website of Banco Macro, and that is www.macro.com.ar/relaciones-inversores/. Also, this event is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]. It is now my pleasure to introduce our speakers. Joining us from Argentina are Mr. Gustavo Manriquez, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Jorge Scarinci, Chief Financial Officer; and Mr. Nicolas Torres, Investor Relations. Now I'll turn the conference over to Mr. Torres. You may begin.

Nicolas Torres

Analyst

Good morning, and welcome to Banco Macro's fourth quarter 2023 Conference Call. Any comments we may make today may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to various conditions, and these are outlined in our 20-F, which was filed to the SEC, and it's available at our website. Fourth-quarter 2023 press release was distributed yesterday and is available at our website. All figures are in Argentine pesos and have been restated in terms of the measuring unit current at the end of the reporting period. As of 2020, the bank began reporting results applying hyperinflation accounting, in accordance with IFRS IAS 29, as established by the Central Bank. For ease of comparison, figures of previous quarters have been restated applying IAS 29 to reflect the accumulated effect of the inflation adjustment for each period through December 31, 2023. I will now briefly comment on the bank's fourth quarter 2023 financial results. Banco Macro's net income for the quarter was ARS460 billion, 3,894% higher or ARS448 billion higher than the third quarter and 789% or ARS408 billion higher than the result posted a year ago. The bank's accumulated ROE and ROA of 33.2% and 8.7% respectively, remains healthy and shows the bank's earnings potential. In fiscal year 2023, net income totaled ARS587.7 billion, 338% higher than in fiscal year '22. Total comprehensive income totaled ARS627 billion and was 438% higher than fiscal year 2022. Net operating income before general, administrative and personnel expenses for the fourth quarter of 2023 was ARS1.3 trillion, increasing ARS778 billion quarter-on-quarter. On a yearly basis, net operating income before general, administrative and personnel expenses increased 224% or ARS915 billion. In fiscal year 2023, net operating income before general and personnel expenses totaled ARS 2.84 trillion, 83% higher than in fiscal year 2022. In the fourth quarter of…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. The first question comes from Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America.

Ernesto Gabilondo

Analyst

Thank you. Hi, good morning, Gustavo, Jorge, and Nico. Thanks for the opportunity and congrats on your strong earnings. My first question is on your investment securities and FX positions. Can you elaborate on how the positions benefited because of the high inflation, the high rates, and the FX? And how should we think about the valuation of these positions in 2024? If we continue to see higher inflation or FX depreciation, should we continue to see positive results? Or how should we think about them? And also related to this question, how much all of the Leliq do you continue to hold? Then my second question is on loan growth. I'm pretty sure that Macro will be one of the few banks in Argentina with a real loan growth in '23. Having said that, we saw that it was driven by commercial loans, but the retail part continues to be still very weak. So how should we think about loan growth -- real loan growth for this year? And for my last question is on your ROE. We saw the '23 ROE close around 33%. But again, it was highly driven because of the gains on investments, on securities. So considering that you will have a tougher Q over Q base in '24, how should we think about the ROE in this year? Thank you.

Jorge Scarinci

Analyst

Hi, Ernesto. How are you? Thanks for your questions. Let's start with the first one, if I remember wrongly. In terms of the strategy that we carried out in the last quarter of 2023, basically at some point, we were forecasting that there could be some troubles with Leliq. So we decided to switch from Leliq into dual bonds, the bonds that are yielding -- were yielding inflation or evolution of the official FX the higher. Seems basically that we consider at that time that -- the week between the Central Bank and the Treasury was almost the same. So we were the first bank to switch the portfolio of Leliq. So at the end of November, we had no Leliq and we switched into dual bonds. And basically, we were also benefited by the devaluation of the official FX in December. And basically, that was -- those numbers were reflecting that the fourth quarter results that we posted basically yesterday, in 2024, part of those dual bonds who were like switching to inflation linked bonds. Of course, I cannot give you much of the details because it's not public information, but basically, we were switching a little bit of the dual into linked bonds. Of course, as I mentioned also, Leliq, we have [indiscernible] as of the end of November. In terms of loan growth, that was another question, I think the second question that you asked, yes, commercial loans showed a good performance. Please consider there that we are including Itaú’s portfolio mainly commercial. So that's why the comparison and the increase that you are showing in the numbers. I think that is well explained in the press release. And of course, in terms of Leliq, yes, the ROE that we posted in 2003 was a spectacular. Going forward, we think that we should be in more normalized levels between 15% to 20%, a positive ROE.

Ernesto Gabilondo

Analyst

Excellent. Super helpful. For '24, we should expect ROEs between 15% to 20%? Or this is something that will start to show up more in '25?

Jorge Scarinci

Analyst

I think in a normalized scenario, I think that Banco Macro's should have no problem to deliver ROEs in the area of 20%. 2024, it's tough to forecast right now. Let's say around 15% in real terms and we could be fine-tuning this in coming quarters.

Ernesto Gabilondo

Analyst

Excellent. Thank you very much, Jorge.

Jorge Scarinci

Analyst

You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Carlos Gomez from HSBC.

Carlos Gomez

Analyst

Hi. Sorry, the line is [Technical Difficulty] so first of all, congratulations on the result. [Technical Difficulty] drivers the conditions in which you are operating in this first quarter of the year, meaning with relatively high inflation, with much lower swap rates from the Central Bank. What is it that we should expect in this first and second quarter of the year? And then what do you expect to see once we normalize by the end of the year? I'm talking in particular about securities gains and essentially your margin from financial and operation. And secondly, if you can give us a bit of an update on what you are going to do with your newly acquired asset, Itaú? When do you expect to integrate it and whether you've seen that there are more assets that come up for sale for you in the coming year -- over the coming years? Thank you.

Jorge Scarinci

Analyst

Hi, Carlos. I couldn't hear exactly the first part of the question. Your first question, but the last part of your first question was talking about securities. In the first quarter of this year, of course, it is not possible to repeat the spectacular performance we had in the last quarter of last year. So I think we are going to have a more normalized behavior of securities gains in the first and second quarter. Again, it will depend on market conditions, depends on the volatility, and of course, bond prices. And I mean, we have demonstrated the bonds that we can be switching the portfolio into those bonds that deliver the best result. So I think that the result is going to be good, not -- again not as spectacular as the one that we see in the last quarter of last year. In terms of Itaú merge, I would say that is going to happen in the second half of this year. The legal merger of -- with Itaú. So that -- in the last part of the year, you are going to see, I mean, the consolidated normalized numbers, including Itaú in all the figures.

Carlos Gomez

Analyst

Okay. So that is the legal merger. And in terms of operationally, [Technical Difficulty] in the bank? How long do you think that process will take?

Jorge Scarinci

Analyst

Sorry, Carlos. Could you repeat that, please?

Carlos Gomez

Analyst

Yes. My apologies again for the line. I was asking when do you think you will have the operational merger with Itaú and when will you be using a single brand?

Jorge Scarinci

Analyst

Carlos, that is going to come in the second half of the year. Exactly, we believe that it's going to be between August and October, but still do not have an exact time. But second half, for sure.

Carlos Gomez

Analyst

Second half, all right. That is good. And going back to the gains from the regional market, again with the swap rate and the case with negative real rates today, what you think in a normal market would be if these conditions are ramping?

Jorge Scarinci

Analyst

I mean, yes, the environment here is negative real interest rate and is basically -- I mean now that you have to take into consideration that when you compare the average cost of funds of the bank and the yield that we are getting on loans and on the securities, even though they are still negative in real terms, the margins, they are quite attractive. Take into consideration that almost 50% of our deposits are close to 0%, the other 50% close to 100%. So we assume that the average cost of funds in the area of between 55% and 60%. Then you have to assume that loans are used in the area of , approx., under the Securities. Therefore, margins look still quite attractive for a banking intermediation tier. And therefore, that's why we continue to increase our funding on the asset side, increasing loans or securities, the better.

Carlos Gomez

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

And there are no further questions at this time. So this concludes the question and answer session. I will turn the conference back over to Mr. Nicolas Torres for some final considerations.

Nicolas Torres

Analyst

Thank you all for your interest in Banco Macro. We appreciate your time and look forward to speaking with you again soon. Good day.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending and have a great day. You may now disconnect.