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Banco Macro S.A. (BMA)

Q3 2024 Earnings Call· Mon, Dec 2, 2024

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to the Banco Macro's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. We would like to inform you that the third quarter 2024 press release is available to download at the Investor Relations website of Banco Macro at www.macro.com.ar/relaciones-inversores/. Also, this event is being recorded and all participants will be in listen-only mode during the company's presentation. After the company's remarks are completed, there will be a question-and-answer session. At that time, further instructions will be given. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to introduce our speakers. Joining us from Argentina are Mr. Jorge Scarinci and Chief Financial Officer; as well as Mr. Nicolás Torres, IR. Now, I will turn the conference over to Mr. Nicolás Torres. You may begin your conference. Nicolás Torres: Thanks, Wyatt. Good morning, and welcome to Banco Macro's third quarter 2024 conference call. Any comments we may make today may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to various conditions, and these are outlined in our 20-F, which was filed to the SEC, and it's available at our website. Third quarter 2024 press release was distributed last Wednesday and it's available at our website. All figures are in Argentine pesos and have been restated in terms of the measuring unit current at the end of the reporting period. As of 2020, the bank began reporting results applying hyperinflation accounting in accordance with IFRS IAS 29 as established by the Central Bank. For ease of comparison, figures of previous quarters have been restated applying IAS 29 to reflect the accumulated effect of the inflation adjustment for each period through September 30, 2024. I will now briefly comment on bank's third quarter 2024 financial results. In the third quarter of…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from Brian Flores with Citibank. Please go ahead.

Brian Flores

Analyst

Hi, team. Good afternoon. Thank you very much for the opportunity to ask questions. I have maybe one that is divided in two parts. So the first one, is if you have any updates on the prospect for loan growth in this year, we have seen some of your peers in the country maybe accelerating 2024 on different dynamics, right. You have maybe the same demand and the same appetite, but also better inflation dynamics helping you in the denominator. So just wanted to understand if you have any changes in the guidance for 2024, 2025 loan growth and also for ROE in both '24 and '25. And then if I may, and because I think it's linked, if you could also update us into how should, we think in terms of capital consumption, to fuel this growth that we're discussing, right? Thank you.

Jorge Scarinci

Analyst

Hi, Brian, good morning. This is Jorge Scarinci answering. Thanks for your questions. The first one, in terms of loan growth, yes, since May of this year, I would say that we started to see more loan demand coming. And of course, in the recent months, as a consequence of a declining inflation, and some stability in the effects, we are seeing loan demand pushing harder. So we think, we are going to finish 2024, with a positive or a real positive rate of growth. This is going to be between 25% and 35% in 2024. And I would say that it's going to be in the area, of 40% positive real rate of growth in 2025. So that is what we are seeing in terms of loan growth, that this is positive. And I would say that, we are going to see also GDP growth according to local economies, grow in next year in real terms between 5% to 6%. In terms of your second question, in terms of ROE forecast this year, I would say as a consequence of a negative second quarter, we should be delivering in the area of 10% positive ROE this year and next year. We should be more in the low to mid tenth, I would say for next year. So that is guidance for the moment for 2024, 2025. According to capital consumption, third question I mean, we have the highest excess capital among [RG] banks. Honestly continue with these aggressive loan growth that we are forecasting for 2024, 2025. And if we move forward to 2026, we could be able to continue growing at high rates, without any needs of additional capital here. So in that sense, we feel - pretty comfortable there, Brian.

Brian Flores

Analyst

Super clear, Jorge, thank you very much.

Jorge Scarinci

Analyst

You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from Ernesto Gabilondo with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Ernesto Gabilondo

Analyst

Thank you. Hi, good morning, Jorge and Nicolás. Thanks for taking my call. A couple of questions from my side. The first one is on your position on securities linked to inflation and to the dollar. Well, first I would like to hear, what would be your assumptions for inflation and FX for next year? And how should we think about, your securities position linked to inflation and FX next year? I don't know, maybe you can tell us what is your current position to total assets today, and how should we think about next year? And then, my second question is on your NII growth expectations plus securities, plus FX. So considering the shift of the asset mix and growing the loan book again, how should we think about the evolution of the NII growth, as well as financial results and FX? It could give you an idea of what will play in terms of the profitability next year? Thank you.

Jorge Scarinci

Analyst

Hi Ernesto, how are you? On the question on securities or bonds? I think there is a pretty clear table in the press release, where we're stating there our position in bonds, open in the different level of accountancy that we can take them, or have them. As of today, we have a long position in bonds tied to inflation, and we do not have any bonds linked to the evolution of the FX. Honestly for next year, according to local economies, there is some wide range between inflation expectations. It goes from 25% to 40% inflation expectations for next year, and a depreciation of the peso. That is in the area of again, also economists, they have a range that goes between 15% to 25% depreciation of the FX for next year. In terms of a second question, honestly Ernesto is not very easy to answer. Because it is very dynamic and we think that the net interest income, is going to continue growing. Of course, we are switching little-by-little or quarter-by-quarter from securities into loan growth. However, this is very tough to forecast the combination between or how that shift would result. Adding also the FX evolution. You know that we have a slightly positive, or we are slightly positive assets on FX there. So my feeling is, if you have to give you an answer here, next year we should be seeing NII growing also between 30% and 35% in real terms. That is the answer I can give you right now. Of course, we could be fine tuning this in the coming quarters.

Ernesto Gabilondo

Analyst

No, super helpful, Jorge. And just another question related to asset quality, so considering that you will be expanding again the loan book, how should we think about the NPL ratio, and the cost of risk for next year?

Jorge Scarinci

Analyst

Well, I mean asset quality, I think it's quite under control, not only in Banco Macro, but also in the average of the system. I think that we are going to see some slight deterioration going forward. But next year, by December next year, we should have a NPL ratio for sure, below 2%, if that is the question.

Ernesto Gabilondo

Analyst

Perfect, perfect. Thank you very much, Jorge.

Jorge Scarinci

Analyst

Welcome Ernesto.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Nicolas Riva with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Nicolas Riva

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Thanks very much Jorge and Nico for taking my questions. Jorge, I have a question. If you have any plans to raise debt in international market? I mean, we have seen one of your large peers recently, raise about $300 million in international market of senior debt. You also have the maturity of your 2026 Tier 2 bond. Any plans at all really to tap international market for either senior, or subordinated debt? Thanks.

Jorge Scarinci

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Hi Nicolas. No, honestly we do not have any plans to raise new debt in the international markets. The 2025 Tier 2 bond is due by the end of 2026. Sorry of 2026. So no, for the moment, we do not have any plans on going into the market on debt.

Nicolas Riva

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Thanks very much, Jorge.

Jorge Scarinci

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Welcome.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Yuri Fernandes with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Yuri Fernandes

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Hi Jorge, I have a question here on your USD deposits. I know this quarter you had the [Banco] and maybe this will continue for the fourth Q. I think it was open until November, the beginning of November. So a lot of inflows of dollars. But when we look to the loans in dollars, they are not growing at the same pace. And your LDR, it is a good problem, right? Your LDR it's very low. How to deploy this money? What to do with those dollar deposits? How those deposits impact your margin? So just trying to understand this excess of U.S. dollar deposits you have, and how you are planning to work with this? Thank you.

Jorge Scarinci

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Hi, Yuri. Yes, this Banco has a stronger effect in the fourth quarter. And of course, we are going to have numbers there by February next year. But to give you some ideas, yes, we not only Macro, but also other peers receive many deposits in U.S. dollar cash. We saw some pickup in loan demand in U.S. dollars in the fourth quarter. But take into consideration that in this Banco, if you were depositing below $100,000, you can or you could withdraw those dollars without paying any tax in the following month. So just to give an idea, almost half of the deposits that we receive under the figure of Banco were below $100,000. So therefore we have to be careful in terms of the liquidity, because half of those deposits could be withdrawn in the next month or so. But we saw some pickup in loan demand in U.S. dollars in the fourth quarter.

Yuri Fernandes

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

No, super clear. And just a final one on this topic. I see a big decrease in margins for you and all the other large banks. You have the breakdown of margins in both pesos and dollars, right? And when we go to the dollar margin, this used to be a mid-teens like a 15% to 20% NIM. It is now running at 4%, 5%. Basically you are charging 5%, 6%, 7% on the asset side, and you are paying like 2% on the liabilities. Just trying to understand what is driving this compression in margins, Jorge, is competition is all the bank's lending at very low rates on the asset side. Like what explained the margin compression, and what is the outlook for your margins in USD? Trying to understand if this can be a tailwind for. Because like we are in the, I don't know, the worst point of the margins in dollars. This is becoming a bigger portion of your liability. So trying to understand if this can be a tailwind for the next quarters? Thank you.

Jorge Scarinci

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Yes, basically competition is driving this compression in margins. It's only that most of our peers, are in the same trend. I think that even though the dollar book is, let's say only 15% to 17% of our total book. But yes, I think we are reaching the bottom part of the margins. I think that in the coming quarters we're going to see stable U.S. dollar margins and maybe some pickup in the second half of 2025. But I'm not seeing margins in U.S. dollars keeping on going downwards. But it's basically competition, yes.

Yuri Fernandes

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

No, perfect. Thank you very much, Jorge.

Jorge Scarinci

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Welcome Yuri.

Operator

Operator

There are no more questions at this time. And thus, this concludes the question-and-answer session. I will now turn over to Mr. Nicolás Torres, for the final considerations. Nicolás Torres: Thank you all, for your interest in Banco Macro. We appreciate your time, and look forward to speaking with you again. Good day.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.