Dan Sheldon
Analyst · Chris Donat
Thanks, Rich. I'm on Slide 6, the revenue growth drivers, EBIT and free cash flow. I'll be focused on the 3 columns to the right side of the page. As Rich already mentioned, we have revenue growth of 4% and 8% for the quarter and year-to-date, respectively, and we're expecting 7% to 8% for the year. Focusing on the individual drivers as we move into the final quarter of this fiscal year, the recurring closed sales will contribute approximately 4% to consolidated revenues this year. We also expect, as Rich mentioned just now, $110 million to $150 million in closed sales this year. In order to achieve the high end of the range, we'll need to have some of the larger deals we're working on closed in the fourth quarter. Our client losses have been running at approximately 1% for the year, or more appropriately, we're running at a 99% retention rate. Our internal growth, which comes primarily from stock record positions and trade volume, contributed 1% for the quarter and are expected to contribute approximately 1% for the year. We were pleased that stock record positions for mutual funds were still growing in the high mid-single digits, and we are also expecting equity stock record growth to be positive this year. Trade volumes continued to be the challenge at least in Q3, although year-to-date, equity trade volumes are flat to last year. For Q3, we're down approximately 11%, primarily driven by lower international trading activity. Fixed income volumes were up slightly for the quarter but not at the double-digit levels we had previously seen. In April, equity trade volumes were down 9%; and for the first few days in May, about flat to last year. So when you look at it, the guidance we're giving for the SPS segment at the low end would be that we continue to see some deterioration in trade volumes and at the high end, at least, may see some kind of recovery. With respect to acquisitions this year, we will contribute 3 points of growth, and as discussed last quarter, have been successfully integrated into the business. So recurring revenue drivers are expected to contribute approximately 7% to consolidated revenue growth for the year. As Rich mentioned, event-driven fee revenues are not rebounding at this point. However, at least in Q3, we were up from Q2, and we expect Q3 levels of approximately $35 million to continue into Q4. Distribution revenues expected to have little positive impact to the consolidated revenues for this year, and that's primarily driven by the lower event-driven. So we're pleased with sales, our retention and acquisition contribution, as well as some of our cost-saving measures, as they are all driving the expected full year EBIT growth from last year's 13.1% to at least 13.6%. The last bullet on the page shows free cash flow between $136 million and $188 million. And without the one-time impact of the IBM and Penson activity, the range would approximate $230 million to $280 million in free cash flow. Let's move to Slide 7, the Penson impairment analysis. Over the last 9 months, we've taken approximately $32 million in noncash P&L charges related to Penson. The $11 million charge year-to-date are an investment in Penson stock relates to the eroded value of the stock price, which we believe is other than temporary, as we've discussed before. The $22 million charge related to the note receivable relates to assumptions we've made related to the Restructuring Support Agreement Rich discussed earlier. There remains $47 million in deferred client conversion costs on our balance sheet that represents cash already deployed for expenditures related to converting the Penson business in the U.S. and Canada which we capitalized. In reviewing these assets for impairment, we considered our terms and conditions of the Penson outsourcing agreement, the significant regulatory capital and the broker-dealer as of December to operate that business during the restructuring activity, the payment status to Broadridge from Penson, and in addition, we go through a weighted average calculation of cash flows related to the $50 million, our revenue. Our conclusion is that these assets are not impaired at this time, and we'll continue to monitor these assets for impairment in future periods, as we have in the past related to Penson. Our Q, which will be filed shortly, has disclosures on what I've just reviewed above in Note 7 and 8. And the next 2 slides and the appendix material address this segment and other materials some of you have asked for. But in the interest of time, I'm not going to review them during this call. Rich, I'll turn it back to you.