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Banco Santander-Chile (BSAC)

Q4 2018 Earnings Call· Mon, Feb 4, 2019

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2018 Banco Santander-Chile Earnings Conference Call. At this time all, participants are in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] Later, we’ll have a question-and-answer session and the instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, this call may be recorded. Now, I would like to turn the call to our Chief Financial Officer, Emiliano Muratore.

Emiliano Muratore

Analyst

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Banco Santander-Chile's fourth quarter 2018 results webcast and conference call. This is Emiliano Muratore, CFO of the bank. As always, I am joined by Robert Moreno, Managing Director of Investor Relations. Thank you for attending today's conference call. We are really proud of the results during 2018. Financially, the bank achieved record profit and once again proved to be leading the industry towards the future of '19, improving in various aspects. First, let's talk about the macro-environment in Chile and what do we expect for this year. Please go to Slide 4 where we show our dynamics forecast. In general, 2018 was a constructive year with the new possibilities of economic cycles and greater business confidence. This was reflected in the GDP growth of 4% for 2018, driven mainly by investment growth of 6% as more companies invested in machinery and equipment. In 2018, 294 projects were approved by the environmental evolution service for a total amount of approximately $25.6 billion. This should start ramping up in the next few years. In the bilateral next five years, there are around 60 billion in large projects which should continue to drive growth. Inflation also picked up during the year reaching an annualized UF variation of 2.8% within the tolerance of the Central Bank, which packaged an inflation of 2%. As effective, the Central Bank increased interest rate in the fourth quarter of 2018 to 2.75%. They will increase the rates again by 25 basis points and we should expect further increases in the year. The velocity of this increase is in race should be slower than previously forecasted as inflation expectations have come down for 2019 especially in the first quarter of this year. We believe interest rate should only rise once more this year to 3.25% and UF inflations to reach 2.5% in 2019. If you look on Slide 5, you can also see that growth in Chile is being driven by many factors. In 2018, the main factor that drove growth were commerce, mining and agro/fishing, going forward we expect the strong growth coming from construction driven by the big investment projects in the mining and infrastructure sectors. Construction should also remain strong over the next few years. Exports in the first part of 2018 expanded at the economic -- the world economy was more dynamic and pursuing a lower base for the mining exports the previous year. What would be the major risk this year? The tendency towards more protection as policies were during 2018 will affect exports going forward. This has contributed to greater uncertainty in international markets. Now, Robert will give us more details on the banks performance.

Robert Moreno

Analyst

Thank you, Emiliano. Let's now look at Slide 7 for an overview of the year. Our net income of 5% in the year driven by positive growth of our core revenues. We finished the year with a return on average equity of 19.2% in line with our guidance. The fourth quarter was also particularly profitable showing a 16% increase compared to the same period of 2017 leading to an ROE of 19.8%. We achieved various milestones throughout the year which are worth mentioning. Going on to Slide 8, we want to highlight various aspects to which Santander-Chile is progressing. We will go further into detailed initiatives of the following topics financials, clients, our phygital strategy, ESG and our employee. On Slide 9, you can see that each of our segment show results in line with each specific strategy. For our individual segments, we launched various digital initiatives and new branches as you'll see in the phygital section of our strategy. During last year, we also restructured the strategy and management for SMEs focusing on loans that we can offer non-lending services as well. For middle market and Santander's corporate investment banking, we continue to consolidate a well rounded client relationship, focusing on the non-lending side of our services. Finally, in financial, non-Santander bank, we not only showed solid results in terms of capital and liquidity where we continue to innovate on financial instruments in order to getting better funding and give our investors attractive investment options. A prime example is the issuance of the first floating rate Chilean peso bond in the local market. We also reissued a second bond at the time in the quarter showing a strong demand in the market for this product. With regard to client on Slide 10, we showed you an allusion of our…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question is from the line of Jason Mollin with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Jason Mollin

Analyst

I just wanted to see if you could give us some commentary on the strategic focus on the consumer segment in the fourth quarter. You mentioned that a few times in your press release and presentation, if you can talk about how you see that and how that combines with the outlook for recurring cost of risk to stay in 1%? If that incorporates a change -- material change in mix, would you be looking for cost of risk to be increased?

Robert Moreno

Analyst

Okay, so as we saw in the fourth quarter, a consumer loans accelerated obviously there was a seasonal effect, but I think a one other would be beyond that. And one thing we mentioned in the earnings report and just now in the presentation, the year began -- the economy growth of 4% driven by investment and as the year has been progressing, we believe the economy and outlook has remained very positive. There's been a lot of questions about unemployment on wages, but we -- the segments we're focusing we tend to look at will be calling Chile's administrative data, we look at some examples the pension fund publish, you can see their good wage growth, good employment growth. So, with economy continue to grow strong with we believe is relatively good news overall in terms of jobs creation and wages. And the fact that, the risk of the consumer loan book has been going -- continuously going down, basically widened our appetite, okay. So, we think, the consumer loan growth will speed up, this year, as we began the fourth quarter, and it should grow at least with the average loan growth maybe little bit more, okay. For the full 2018, commercial loans and corporate lending, middle market lending was the strength, but we are seeing since 2019, it should be more or less equal between all the different products with a consumer loan speeding-up. The cost of credits given our view on economy, employment and what we've seen until now, we don’t see a significant increase in the cost of risk because of this change in strategy.

Jason Mollin

Analyst

Robert, maybe a comment on lending spreads in the consumer segment and the mortgage segment? Rates have been going-up a little bit, as we've seen in the impact on your numbers as well. Are you able to pass on the higher rates to the clients in the lending yields? Or are spreads are shrinking a little bit?

Robert Moreno

Analyst

Okay, let's say for most part the spreads, but they also fell in terms -- as the net of risks, they have been stable. So until now you can see in our margins as well, the NIM has been coming down. We've been still growing mid on high income, so if you look at the gross spread or the gross rate, we lend that in consumer loans and it has been going down all through last year, okay. But when you grew net of risk, I think the story has been one of stability. So going forward, I think we're no longer exiting the lower end because that basically finished. Now, we're in fact growing in Santander Life and we're growing more in the mass markets as well as the mid to high end. So, I don't think the loans yield should follow any further in consumer lending just because the mix won't be changing like it did before. And the rate increases as you know hurts us negatively in the beginning because our deposits re-priced faster than our assets. But eventually, yes, it should be transferred on to the active side, that usually takes a little more than 12 months. I would say, the rising rates won't impact the pricing yet, but we will impact the margins will be the fact that the mix won't be shifting as much as before.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Ernesto Gabilondo with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open.

Ernesto Gabilondo

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open.

A couple of questions from my side, first one is. Can you share with us how much additional provisions related to the recalibration of your consumer portfolio are you expecting for this year? And the second question is. After incorporating your 2019 guidance, is it reasonable to expect mid to high single digit net income growth? And if you can provide, what are you expecting for ROE this year will be highly appreciated?

Robert Moreno

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open.

We, in terms of the sizing of the recalibration of consumer, I mean, when we mentioned to the 55 for the new SMEs regulation, I think, we are putting all together in that field as one-off effects in terms of consideration for this year. And in terms of net income growth, yes, I mean, I would say that in the mid single digit, mid to high single digits, is the kind of ballpark we are getting from our guidance. And the ROE for the year, like the recurrent ROE without considering the one-off of the provision we just mentioned, we are talking about around 19%.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from George Friedman with Citibank. Your line is now open.

George Friedman

Analyst · Citibank. Your line is now open.

Just a clarification first on the previous question, you already did in third quarter CLP20 billion for the group base provisions. So, the whole guidance is for 55, so on top of the 20 we expect to have during this year 35 billion more. Is that correct?

Robert Moreno

Analyst · Citibank. Your line is now open.

No, no, the 20 billion was last year, let me just recap. In the third quarter, we had to do some additional provisions for the consumer, okay. This year and that’s a different thing and then this year, we have to implement the commercial, the new provisioning model for basically SMEs, let's put it. That’s going to be 55 billion this year, okay. So, the 20 billion was in the third quarter for consumer, okay that’s done. And then this year, we have to do the other changes to the provisioning model, which will be 55 billion this year in the second quarter.

George Friedman

Analyst · Citibank. Your line is now open.

And the next question is related to the progression of non-interest expenses. You had announced I think by the end of 2017 or beginning of last year that you were going to invest more than $300 million for the coming three years and the progression of operating expenses in 2018 was awesome, you grew below inflation. So, how should we behave that I understand that you expect to remain stable in terms of efficiency, but is it possible to have OpEx growing in line with inflation again?

Emiliano Muratore

Analyst · Citibank. Your line is now open.

I mean, we keep the target of having expenses growing in line with inflation. As you said, last year, we were bit below. But for this year and the coming years, our target is to be in line with inflation. And as you’re mentioning, I mean, the investments needed in this new like era of banking in digital loan that always put some pressure on expenses. So, if you do the math, the efficiency ratio, we’re driving to be around 40 with maybe some downwards pressure, if we’re able to deliver on the very new side that we would prefer to be conservative and total out 40% efficiency going forward.

George Friedman

Analyst · Citibank. Your line is now open.

And the final point here. Just to understand, you are growing now a bit faster on the retail consumer line, but you continue to see improvement -- secretion improvement in asset quality. Does this digitalization process also help on that end? Or is it expected to see some this like deterioration in terms asset quality going forward?

Emiliano Muratore

Analyst · Citibank. Your line is now open.

We don’t expect the duration because there are like two forces playing there, as Robert mentioned before. First, the economy is doing pretty well and the employments are also good, so that’s like a tailwind in terms of cost of risk. And that balances how with that maybe higher mix going into consumer loans. I mean, so those two forces kind of neutralized each other and that’s why we would think that we don’t keep the cost of risk around like 1%, I mean, before the one-off. I mean these forces compensating each other.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our next question is from Yuri Fernandes with JP Morgan. Your line is now open.

Yuri Fernandes

Analyst

Just a clarification, again, on this new risk models, I guess, you, I guess, maybe 2015 or '16 some change this year or 2018, you did for SMEs and now you're going to do for our consumers. Should we expect something, again, in 2020 or in 2019 this 55 billion be the last adjustment you have to do on your risk models?

Emiliano Muratore

Analyst

Well, that would depend on the regulator and as you might know, I mean, in June the 1st, the financial market commission will merge with the Superintendency of Banks. So, the current regulator has mentioned in the past that their idea is also to go into the consumer portfolio with a familiarized provisioning model. We are just two months before the merger. We don't know if the financial market commission and we will also follow this line that. I mean, it depends on the regulator. I mean, I could not match in that. I mean, if the regulator decides to implement the model. Definitely, we will have to follow with that, but I think that the merger of the regulator is like an important milestone in what might happen in the future. I mean we don’t have any information that provisioning model for consumer will be perished before the merger. And after the merger, we will have to see what the new stands of the commission.

Yuri Fernandes

Analyst

This change you're doing now. Is this you being like a more cautious the regulator like you're anticipating potential changes or pushed by the regulator? Because I guess, in 2015, the changed was the regulator pushing. This one in 2018, I think, was like the banks demark proactive on changing the regulation. And this one in 2019, I'm not sure if it's something that the banks are going to be more, I don't know, adequate to the provisions by the regulator?

Emiliano Muratore

Analyst

It's totally pushed by the regulator in the sense that it’s a change in the rules and the motto, okay. So, remember, the banks have a basically IFRS except when it comes to expect loss models where you can have your own internal models, but you all have to do and parallel the regulators models. And if the regulator model -- and that’s giving you more provisions, you have to use there. So, now, we are changing the provisioning model mainly for SMS or commercial loans annualized -- analyze on a group basis. And then, it's turning out that the provisions in the SBF model turns out with more provisions in our internal model. That’s why, we have -- so this is regulatory change, okay.

Operator

Operator

And our next question is from Sebastián Gallego with Credicorp Capital. Please go ahead. Sebastián Gallego: I have two questions and just a clarification. The initial question is maybe a follow-up on initial questions regarding the strategy. Last call I remember that you mentioned that we are focusing on growth meant primarily focused on the commercial portfolio. Now, this bit seems to be changing again to the consumer. Can you explain again why is this happening since you've mentioned also that in private investments has been a big driver of the economy? Second question is regarding Basel III. I just want to ask you, if there are any progress on conversations with the regulators regarding density for risk weighted assets? And just to clarify third question or jus a quick clarification, if you can clarify the guidance on ROE of 19% is excluding the effect of provision? Mean, in other words, it could be lower the guidance when including the provisions?

Emiliano Muratore

Analyst

I mean according to your last question, yes, that's the case. I mean, we are talking about ROE around 19% without considering the one-off impacts of the new provisioning regulation. And going to your second question about Basel III, we don’t have any news regarding density, the news and the good news is that, the merger between the regulators is taking place like really quick. I mean like, the loss gain one year for the regulators to merge and they announced, the minister of finance announced that they will be merging in June the 1st. So much earlier than the law established. And so and after that, the law gives 18 months to the financial market commission to publish the waitings and the fine print of the relation, and we don’t have any specific news regarding that. I mean, we keep what we have mentioned in the past that as far as the Chilean Basel III model is similar to the European one that is the ones we know and we report every month to our parent company. We expect the change to be positive for our capital ratio.

Robert Moreno

Analyst

Then the other one, basically, what we're doing is kind of following the movements in economy. So when economy started picking up, it was basically driven by investments, investments after having four years of decreasing grew in 2018 for a lot of the loan demand was kind of like backlogs investment projects that haven't been done and that were being done that we're reactivating you could say. And now we see that, the investment cycle will continue to grow where several of those commercial loans. But now we are just, we're also going to see a little bit of more growth as well on the retail side. So, for most of 2018 with maybe the exception of the fourth quarter, it was really the middle market, the commercial loans drove growth and a little bit also on mortgage, and then consumer was a little bit slower. And now, we feel comfortable, the economy is going to continue to grow. There is sudden of the investment. There is going to be good commercial loan growth, but either on to that we should see more consumer loans. I think that's basically explains the change in strategies because they were moving along with economy.

Operator

Operator

And I'm not showing any further questions in the queue, I will like to turn the call back to Emiliano Muratore for his final remarks.

Emiliano Muratore

Analyst

Thank you, all very much for taking the time to participate in today's call. We look forward to speaking with you again soon.

Operator

Operator

And thank you, ladies and gentlemen for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program and you may all disconnect. Have a wonderful day.