Earnings Labs

Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. (BSBR)

Q3 2016 Earnings Call· Sat, Oct 29, 2016

$5.77

-2.20%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and thank you for waiting. Welcome to the conference call to discuss Banco Santander Brasil SA's results. Present here are Mr. Angel Santodomingo, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Mr. Andre Parisi, Head of Investor Relations. Other participants will be on listen-only mode during the presentation, after which, we will begin the question-and-answer session when further instructions will be provided. [Operator Instructions] The live webcast of this call is available at Banco Santander's investor relations website at www.santander.com.br/ir where the presentation is also available for download. [Operator Instructions]. Before proceeding, we wish to clarify that forward-looking statements may be made during the conference call relating to the business outlook of Banco Santander Brasil operating and financial projections and targets based on the beliefs and assumptions of the Executive Board as well as on information currently available. Such forward-looking statements are not a guarantee of performance. They involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions as they refer to future events and hence depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Investors must be aware that general economic conditions, industry conditions, and other operational factors may affect the future performance of Banco Santander Brasil and may cause actual results to substantially differ from those in the forward-looking statements. I will now pass the word to Mr. Angel Santodomingo. Please, Mr. Santodomingo, you may proceed.

Angel Santodomingo

Management

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. This is Angel Santodomingo, CFO of Santander Brasil. Thank you for joining us again in this 3rdQ Santander Brasil's results earnings conference call. Let me underline what I will be covering in this morning. Firstly, I will remind you of the main pillars of Santander Brasil followed by Santander Group results, an overview of Brazil's macro scenario, and highlights of the quarter speaking about our commercial activity and how the Bank evolved during the period and finally, I will provide some concluding remarks from what has been presented today. Starting in next slide, in the past two years, we have been repeatedly saying that the most effective way to achieve our goal of being the best bank for our clients will be to focus on our commercial strategy and promote efficient management practices. [We need] client's recognition of our ability to continuously evolve to satisfy their needs is already being translated into better and more sustainable results for Banco Santander Brasil as I hope you will see in the following slides. I would like to underline four points. First, I would like to underscore our commercial simplification process, which is linked to our digital strategy and is aimed at enhancing our overall customer experience by making Santander Brasil an easier bank to do business with. For instance, one click or clique unico is already operating in 91 of our retail branches compared to 33%, 21% of our retail branches compared to 33% in January. This measure significantly reduces paperwork and creates free time for our retail teams to pursue more business opportunities. From the client's perspective, important one, they enjoy a faster service. We will delve further into this subject in another slide. Second point, our commitment to provide an appealing service has allowed us…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, we will now start the Q&A session for investors and analysts. [Operator Instructions].

Andre Parisi

Analyst

Questions, first, regards NII, question from Lucas Wapsias and also Philip Finch from UBS. I like to understand the source of the impressive increase and gains with financial progression of this quarter, trading desk more active, should we expect normalization of this line to 1.8 million, 1.9 million next quarter?

Angel Santodomingo

Management

Thank you, Lucas and Philip. Let me elaborate a little bit on NII. I would say that if you see the historic experience obviously this is above our average, but I must also say that we have outstanding teams in our wholesale banking activities. Let me remember what I mentioned in my words, we are the first forex transaction bank today in Brazil. This means activity, activity that mainly reflected in this type of -- in the part for the P&L we are speaking. So market in general terms, I agree with you that they tend to be more volatile than other lines in the P&L. We are setting the standard, so we have a sound base in terms of activity here. I wouldn't like to give you an exact guidance, but I agree that the quarter has been positive compared to the past.

Andre Parisi

Analyst

Next question is from Marcelo Cintra, Goldman Sachs and Mario Pierry from Merrill Lynch. I would like to better understand if the management believes that funding cost should continue to improve and what we should expect in terms of credit spreads going forward, if the credit spreads will continue to drop?

Angel Santodomingo

Management

Okay, I can share with you, if I remember at least for the last four quarters, when we started to give a little bit more of focus on our liability side. So, this has been commented in several occasions and as I mentioned also in my words this has started to be reflected on the P&L. This is kind of our positioning of the bank in terms of focus in our liability management and we expect this is going to continue in the future. I wouldn't extrapolate obviously past growth because we are starting from low levels, but this a long-term plan, this is not quarter plan. As I mentioned in previous occasions, we have started, we are executing, and we are delivering. This is our way of dealing with you with the market announcing and executing and delivering. And on the asset side, I think we have to play here with two variables with spreads and quantities and volumes. The normal trend as we go into positive territory in the economic cycle should be to see pressure on asset spreads. Remember here that we have two things, we have the pure spread on commercial activities and we also have the mix. In our case, normally the negative trend has to be more with mix and with pure spreads individually in [the different hurdles], but I have to agree that going forward and I'm speaking the next one, two years, we should see some pressure on asset spreads. Volumes in terms of NII should compensate what I'm saying as we go into important or more positive volume growth, but also if we speak of NIM of the ratio, help from the liability side from the funding side should come in to consider NIM evolution, but I have to really -- in the normal situation when we can cover growth, the consensus ourselves, everybody is expecting for 2017 and onwards 2018, 2019 is that asset spreads should start to put some pressure.

Andre Parisi

Analyst

Next question is from Mario Pierry, Merrill Lynch and Guilherme, Itau. How about loan portfolio repricing? When should we see the full benefits of rising loan spreads on your NIM. Moreover, could you comment how your margins will perform in the scenario of lower Selic rate and what's the earning sensitivity to 100 bps decline in Selic rate?

Angel Santodomingo

Management

Well in terms of repricing the loan portfolio, you know that we are speaking on the asset side of loan duration, I think our average duration is [0.9]. We move into three months all sort of things up to two, three years in the cases of auto financing et cetera, but the average portfolio tends to be 0.9. So here repricing and rotational churn of the loan portfolios is quite quick. So I would say that, that type of repricing is not as in other developed countries and other places in which you have a low percentage of the book moving forward. In terms of NIM and asset spreads, loan portfolio, I think I already elaborated on the question before and there was -- the sensitivity to Selic. We commented this when we were in London by the end of September in Investor Day of Santander Group, we updated our sensitivity. We have decrease of 100 basis points in the curve. We have a positive sensitiveness, which is close to around BRL400 million, a little bit more than BRL400 million so positive sensitivity to lower Selic rate [indiscernible].

Andre Parisi

Analyst

We are go into Philip Finch from UBS, with lower rates, are you now becoming more constructive in loan origination? In which segments do you think loan growth could pickup first, corporates?

Angel Santodomingo

Management

Thank you, Philip. I would say, my first comment will be, we are and we have been constructive. Believe me we are open for business, but we want to give loans or with the adjusted bank rates, but we want to give loans. In fact, if you see our total loan portfolio, which is QonQ around 1% positive compares very positively with what the financial sector is presenting on our QonQ variations which is in negative territory. So, we are hoping for business and we are constructive about that. It is still and I think it's where the equation comes in, it is true that as we see the economic cycle going into more positive territory or into positive trend, we should see volumes picking up. Let me elaborate a little bit by segments. On the individual side, I would say that both what we are saying already, payrolls, real estate, probably real in our case should pick up along with some financing, consumption financing, I'm thinking of the auto sector. The automobile sector after the strong drop it has had in the last two years, at some point we feel it is kind of touching base or touching the low point of the cycle. In terms of -- moving on the corporate side, I would stay that we are starting to see both geographically and by sector align with the manufacturing some parts of food or agricultural activities obviously Southeast-oriented, I mean you do have kind of segmentation within the segment in which we see more positive trends and we will see them going forward. And I think this is a trend that is starting with confidence already. Investments should lead the cycle, which means that the banking activity is going to be important when these investments come in. Infrastructure-linked activities and financing will probably be strong. So, I mean you have a variety of possibilities in which as a bank, we should be able. And last but not the least, I would underline what I shortly mentioned in my words, which is Santander Brasil today is a unique international bank in Brazil with substantial scale after the exits of HSBC and Citi. We think, we should and we can leverage on a position that is unique in terms of capacity and this also leads to other things which are not related to the loan portfolio. As you know, we have been the advisor of the main M&A activities and operations that have happened in the last quarters coming for example from China. This is because we do have support from our wholesale activities in Hong Kong or in China in general sense and we work -- it happens also in Europe, [it happens all over Europe]. So we should be able to leverage that.

Andre Parisi

Analyst

Next question from Mario Pierry, Merrill Lynch. This is the first time that we've seen a sequential improvement in loan growth in about one year and above industry trends. What makes Santander confident that it should start to gain market share now?

Angel Santodomingo

Management

Okay, Mario, thank you for the question. I think [I don't want to be predicting our position on why we are not] gaining market share. I can elaborate in all the examples. I mean for example, the automobile financing, we had done a strong structural change to this business. We are the leaders as you know. We are not only the leaders on the market, we are the leader also as a second piece in web based, in the Internet, web based transactions in [management side] with models, which we are also leading in Brazil. So what have we done here? What we have done is we utilized the full process of a client going into a dealer and asking for financing for its car. Previously, what happened is that this had -- the client had to fill in [108] different information pieces. Today, it's just six. They go into the dealer, the commercial person offers to them the car, the conditions, they can analyze the sensibility to the different down payment that they can do and literally five, 10 minutes, he goes out of the dealer's shop with the car financed. It's a full detail process. We are saving 25% of the infrastructure we had thanks to these move. And this has already been applied as I mentioned to 9,000 different shops in Brazil as of October 1. So, these are the kind of things that strengthens your position in the market as a leader. We already seeing a strong increase of the amounts of financing in this business in an environment, which is strongly negative here in Brazil as you know because it is depending on the type of the car, but we are speaking of between 10% to 20% decrease over and over after -- one year after another, which accumulated drop of 15% in previous cars, but I would say that we are confident in terms of the capacities that this one has in Brazil of performing an important role in terms of on the asset side.

Andre Parisi

Analyst

Next question from Daniel, Itau. Considering the review in socio security benefit, the last page for the federal government, how do you see your exposure from the payroll loan portfolio?

Angel Santodomingo

Management

Okay, thank you, Daniel. Andre is trying to speak it because he is translating at the same time that the question is coming in. So that is the reason why the speed is lower. Let me try to address the question Daniel and I would say our payroll position as you are seeing is stronger. I remember you have two different ways of commercializing and in both of them we even see with these social security changes, good opportunities. We have the internal line which is through branches, that is performing nicely. We already have closed to 9%, 10% of markets in production month-over-month. So we are achieving an overall market share -- something that we were one, two years ago completely out. And secondly, we have the joint venture with [indiscernible] in which also it's already achieving outstanding numbers in terms of production. We are provisioning close to BRL1 billion per month and as I said, we are achieving market shares that make more sense. This is a business that you have to know, you have to be close to reality, let me call it like that. As you have seen and as you probably know in the last at least five, 10 years, the number of players has dropped substantially. Substantially means, strongly in terms of not only number of them, but concentrating many players and we see here that we have a strong capacity. We are one of the only three players for example that offer a credit card. Here are the [indiscernible] for the payroll ending which can the both 5% of the income of our clients and [indiscernible]. So these type of issues that we think position are possibly going forward.

Andre Parisi

Analyst

Moving to asset qualities next question from Marcellus Cintra, Goldman Sachs and also Gillerme from Itau. This quarter Santander Brasil increased its additional provision in BRL430 million after consuming some of the additional provisions in second Q. Just would like to know if these new provision is related to any specific case and if the bank plans to use it in the short term?

Angel Santodomingo

Management

Yes, the answer is I address this in my words. I mentioned that this specific case in our 15 to 90 days, sorry in our last quarter, in the 15 to 90 days ratio. As I mentioned, this has moved to over 90 days movement provokes provisioning which has meant two things. It has meant that our provisions have gone up and it has also meant a cost of risk [however] and it has also meant that the coverage has already dropped because of the increase of the renumerator in the NPL ratio. I would say that the natural move of our case at least in this case is important but our case from the 15 to 90 to over 90 to the coverage to NPL ratio and to the cost of risk is a clear issue. Let me say with you something that probably is important. The NPL ratio moved from 3.2% to 3.5%. Without this case, it would have dropped a little bit. So we are controlling the risk profile [individuals] as you have seen and we think also it is controlled or should trend in a gradual way going forward in our corporate world. Again, this is why I underline so much in my words our risk model, et cetera because I think in Spain -- it's paying off as you know in today's regulatory schemes, we do a lot of stress testing et cetera but for us, the best stress test is being and has been the last two years and we are the leader in what you see.

Andre Parisi

Analyst

Next question is from Philip Finch, UBS and Tito Labarta from Deutsche. When do you think NPL will peak? When will loan loss provisions start to come down?

Angel Santodomingo

Management

Okay, thank you, Philip and Tito. The NPL peak discussion is a kind of a long one. I would say that if the economy, which is what I said to you in the presentation, if the economy performs how everybody is expecting today, which means that on one side we have already started to see a decrease in interest rates, which is very important going forward, decrease is interest rates, confidence going up and investments are starting to happen, this should lead to already a positive variation in 4Q as well but positive variation in 4Q [will be temporarily going to 2017]. Unemployment will lag and that lag that normally somewhere around the three months or six months will probably shorten because of the drop of interest rates and you will continue to see that drop. If you put all these in the pot, I would say that the economy will be strong enough to reduce that gap in between economy and NPLs and it starts with positive evolution somewhere in first semester of next year. In terms of -- obviously in terms of cost of risk of provisions, the answer will be totally adjusted to what I said before.

Andre Parisi

Analyst

Next question is from Salomao, Morgan Stanley and Carlos from HSBC. We would like to know of the specific case in corporate segment has impacted NPL ratio in 3Q, is that full provision, how much provisions did you build for this specific case in the quarter? Can you provide any soft guidance of cost of risk in 4Q and 2017?

Angel Santodomingo

Management

Okay, thank you Salomao and Carlos. I think I already answered part of your question in my previous words, I would say that we do not like to speak of clients of specific cases. We are devoting too much time to this issue because -- it was affecting the ratios, but we really do not feel comfortable in speaking one page of another. I already said to you that we had a comfortable level of provision last quarter. In this quarter, I would say that we are totally comfortable, okay. So, I think that answers your question. Guidance, in terms of the future, cost of risk, we do not provide. I already mentioned how we see both NPL and cost of risk going forward and I keep on saying, I mean if Brazil goes in the direction the majority of the market is seeing in terms of economic performance, we still have some, probably negative news coming from the evolution of unemployment, but the rest is going to strongly support an evolution in the next few quarters.

Andre Parisi

Analyst

Next question regards fees from Carlos Lopez, HSBC. On AUMs, why are these two included in your total fund if the asset management business no longer belongs to the bank? We understand that you got the fees.

Angel Santodomingo

Management

Okay. Thank you, Carlos. Let me try to explain as you preferably say fees, we did pay fees but I mean, we have first concept. Obviously, we are speaking of balancing, funding or of balance sheet assets under management. So obviously, we do not include them as funding or on the loan to deposit ratio or on balance sheet etcetera. So that's an obvious answer, but let me make the disclaimer. How does this work? We have the commercial relationship with the client. It is our client, the only thing we sold as you know in the past was the factory. We maintain, as you said, depending on the case that around 60%, 70%, 80% of the fees when we sell these products. So we have the time. We have the assets under management of the client and we have fees for is like any other product that we sold to them. The only thing that is out of the chain out of the full process is the factory, but it doesn't change anything.

Andre Parisi

Analyst

Next question is about RWA from Domingos Falavina, JPMorgan. Could you please provide more info on what drove operational risk to increase that much?

Angel Santodomingo

Management

If I'm not mistaken here, this is a technical issue and probably investor relations can clarify this a little bit, but if I understand it well and I'm speaking out of memory here, it has to do with how it is calculated, it's kind of a semester average or something like that and depending on the semester that goes in and out, it varies in this kind of calculation. It has to do with that and obviously with the exchange rate, but I would guess Andre that investor relations can clarify specifically the calculation. Thank you.

Andre Parisi

Analyst

Regarding to your macro scenario from Mario Pierry, Merrill Lynch. If economic growth would be driven by increased investments, especially infrastructure, what role will Santander play on these investments?

Angel Santodomingo

Management

Thank you, Mario. Important one, we expect to be a protagonist role. I mean as I said before, both because we are the unique international bank, one. Second, we are being able to intermediate a lot of the flows and interest that we see from outside the country into the country. We have mentioned this in previous words, we are the first bank today in project finance. We are the first bank today to lead in the position in M&A transactions, obviously in forex and equities. I mean I think we are absolutely well-positioned to leverage on this growth coming forward and we should be able to leverage. So, I will say I expect it to be a significant not I mean to vary strongly the numbers that you will see, but our role is going to be an important one, I'm almost sure.

Andre Parisi

Analyst

Thank you very much for your questions. And now we are going to hear more questions from the phone.

Operator

Operator

Mr. Rafael Frade from Bradesco would like to ask a question .

Rafael Frade

Analyst

Hi, good morning all. I have two questions, the first is a follow-up on the fees. You have been doing a very good job in terms of the increase in fees. I would like to understand where do you see that you are in this process, I know that you were working hard to increase the loyalty and segmentation of clients. I would like to understand if you believe that you are in the beginning of this process, in the middle or close to be more complete. So, if you could give some color on this. And the second question would be relates to your acquiring business, GetNet. We saw a significant acceleration in this quarter, all we would like to know if you could give me also a bit more color on this, if there is any specific case or a change in strategy, anything would help.

Angel Santodomingo

Management

Okay, thank you. I'm going to try to address the first one, I did not hear you too well, so if I do not address, please do come back and I will -- because I didn't get exactly what you were saying on NII. If I understood you well, your question was around NII loyalty and how it would evolve going forward. I will elaborate a little bit on answering the previous questions, I expect that the positive trend or the different trends end up being positive. What I'm saying is that on the asset side, remember the mix versus the spread gain, I would say that we have lost some market share, some share on the high spread, high cost of these products, it also obviously explains what is happening on the quality side and that loss of share has meant pressure on the spreads and again this quarter for example, the main reason for the almost 10 basis points drop and you have seen on the asset spread has been change of mix, but I also elaborated that going forward, going forward means not next quarter, I'm speaking of the next one, two, three years with normal change to the pressure on the asset side, but we have the liability side, the mean from the liability side or the incremental margin from the liability side which has already started to give some positives, should continue. So, those are two only we have today. On the loyalty side, speaking specifically of clients, as you know, one of our priority objectives that we have given in the industrial sector where loyalty clients, we are increasing loyalty clients, we have a specific plans to increase the loyalty clients. I think it's already starting to be seen in the P&L and then…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Mr. Marcelo Telles from Credit Suisse.

Marcelo Telles

Analyst · Credit Suisse

Hi, good morning gentlemen. Congrats on the results. I have a question regarding your dividend policy. Clearly, I mean you've been on a successful operational turnaround and it does look like that your ROE is going to continue to improve over time and you probably going to be able to keep Tier l ratio at very healthy levels and most likely a good payout. So how should you think about your dividend policy over the next years and what do you think should be your target core Tier 1 equity. Thank you.

Angel Santodomingo

Management

I would say that our dividend policy, the payout ratio -- let us see what has happened in the past. What has happened in the past is that we are optimizing payouts in accounting profits. We are optimizing that payout. This is obviously both this cash, but what I would say is that the policy in terms of dividends has been to maximize the remuneration that shareholders obtain. Going forward what I see is that again we have given guidance et cetera, but first as you said we stick to our return on equity guidances and objectives. Second, I would say that the discussion around dividend remuneration et cetera will continue to be based on the same variables. We have new things going in in the future. Let me share with you, 2017 is going to be the year in which we [could grow] amortization will strongly go down, during the year, this is not something specifically for 1Q. Probably going into 2018 more than 2017, this is a good question to have in mind, but for the time being, I think that the policy has been quite clear. In terms of objective of capital, we always say the same thing. We have capital to use and to profit from. The bank has changed strongly towards focus on profitability and capital. This is being included or embedded in business lines and that is how we are going to move forward. I mean we are going to move in terms of optimizing the usage of capital on the normal event.

Marcelo Telles

Analyst · Credit Suisse

We still have some more questions. Next one is from Carlos Lopez, HSBC on taxes. Could you tell us, what would you expect for this year and next assuming there are no changes in tax legislation? And also we noticed that you have maintained the size of your branch network although a level were close in the quarter while the workforce declined by 5%. Do you expect to expand your network to take advantage of the departure of some competitors?

Angel Santodomingo

Management

Okay, thank you, Carlos. On taxes, we have mentioned in the past quarter, the natural trend should be upwards. I believe that it is a difficult one both for insiders and non-insiders because it depends on a lot of things as you can imagine. We do have our department strength to optimize this part of the P&L, but I would expect marginally, again marginal, do not extrapolate these to huge valuations, but marginally should turn. In terms of our branches and physical network etcetera, the question is a good one, but it's not a question for now, it's a question on the long-term. We are quite happy with our presence. We have close to 3,500 selling points in between branches and there is more branches. We are always optimizing as you can imagine, but optimizing doesn't mean closing, it means moving, it means positioning et cetera, I think which is totally business as usual. Now, your question is very long-term anyhow it is going to be infrastructure of the bank, I assume that it will tend to change, but we believe the discussion sometimes is absolutely exaggerated, in the digital world is evolving and I mentioned day time how it is evolving. We see it as a channel, not an alternative channel, a channel, but obviously both. If you see the banking industry five years ago and now, you probably wouldn't have thought of it as we have today and probably five years in a row, you also change, but it doesn't really mean that the physical structure has to change or not. Different solutions to that discussion may be addressed. Andre, I think we have some more questions or no, that's about it. Thank you again for your presence in the conference call and in the presentation. We are proud of the results we presented. I hope you share that view and I'm looking forward to seeing you next quarter. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Banco Santander Brasil's conference call has come to an end. We thank you all for your participation and have a nice day.