Earnings Labs

B2Gold Corp. (BTG)

Q4 2021 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 23, 2022

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon. My name is Pam, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the B2Gold Fourth Quarter and Year-end 2021 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Mr. Johnson, you may begin your conference.

Clive Johnson

Analyst

Thanks, operator. Thanks for joining us. We're here as the operator said, to report on the fourth quarter of 2021 and the year-end results of 2021, financial results. And we had -- as the news release indicates that we had another very strong quarter and the year 2021, ending up at a very strong cash position. Our costs were in good shape. And -- we're pleased with those results, and I think we're well positioned to continue with our responsible mining from all of our sites and also continue to push to grow the company, and we'll talk about that as well. So we're going to keep it pretty brief in terms of the presentation slide and then open it up for all of your questions. I'm going to turn it over now to Mike Cinnamond, who's going to talk you through the highlights of the financial results, and then I'll come back on and talk a little bit about perhaps outlook, where we see ourselves going. And then we'll open it up to questions. We've got the whole B2Gold team, mostly in the office of in Vancouver and some of them home as well. So we'll be happy to take your calls after the presentation. Thank you. Over to you Mike.

Mike Cinnamond

Analyst

Thanks, Clive. So I'm going to talk about the quarter and then the full year. And then I'll have a brief comment on the budget guidance that we already put out in a separate release, but reiterate it in this news release. So firstly, for the quarter, gold revenue for Q4 was $526 million. So that was still 292,000 ounces at average price of $1,800 per ounce. So the gold price pretty much averaged for the quarter and for the full year. In fact, where we thought it would when we put out our cash flow guidance at the start of the year, which is remarkable in the year where it bounced up and down. But -- and obviously, now we're seeing it at $1,900 an ounce with this Ukrainian crisis. So prospects for gold sales are good. We're currently selling into those higher prices. Production-wise, consolidated production was 305,000 ounces for the quarter and includes our share of Calibre's production. Pretty much on budget, just slightly -- slightly over 2,000 ounces over budget From our mines, Fekola, 164,000 ounces, that was 4,000 ounces ahead of budget in Fekola through the quarter and for full year, it's the same story we've talked about already all year. Just higher throughput than we thought. We averaged over 9 million tonnes this year, which is remarkable. We budgeted 7.75 million tonnes for this year. So average over 9 million tonnes throughput. And that was partially offset by lower recoveries from lower grade stockpile material that we put through the mill to feed that throughput. Masbate 47,000 ounces, that was 5,000 ounces lower than budget. But if you recall, in Q3, we already indicated that Masbate actually mined out of sequence at mine some of the higher-grade main vein material in Q3 that was…

Clive Johnson

Analyst

Okay. Thanks, Mike. As I said before, were I'm going to make a few comments now looking forward, and then we'll open up for questions. We’ll talk about Mali, first and foremost. Obviously, our largest mine Fekola is in Mali and obviously, Mali is much in the news these days. But I want to talk about the reality of Mali from a gold mining perspective. Why companies like [Grandland] went there with great success in the early '90s and beyond and many other companies, international companies have gone to Mali for its tremendous wealth globalization and the government historically. Coming at the government have believed in the importance of mining in their economy and the support it for an investment in gold mine. And I think that gets lost sometimes in the noise of what our real events or issues that we deal with and they're dealing with Mali fundamental issue there. We've spent a long time, some of us 35 years scouting the globe looking for great opportunities to gold mining and often they didn't fit necessarily everyone else's model in terms of risk profile. We've done that remarkably well between B2Gold, in many, many different places all over the world. So 1 of our keys is due diligence. Due diligence is just about resources and potential mining costs and permitting [Indiscernible]. So about assessing countries being in places where they want us to come in and welcome us to be partners with government and create jobs and to all the great things we do for these economies around the world. There's probably never been more evidence than it has been during COVID what we contribute and how we do it. And not just us, of course, many other responsible mining companies have done a great job of that.…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Ovais Habib with Scotiabank.

Ovais Habib

Analyst

Congrats on a solid 2021. Just a couple of questions from me, Clive. My first question is on Anaconda. Now you're expecting at least a resource update in Q1, and then you're looking to have a Phase 2 drilling. Is the plan to complete a PEA on stand-alone versus trucking or down to Fekola. I mean I'm trying to figure out what are the parameters? How large you need Anaconda to become before you consider Anaconda as a stand-alone project?

Clive Johnson

Analyst

Sure. Well, I guess in terms of -- I'll pass it over to Bill in terms of the PEA and what we're doing there in terms of working with the new -- the resources, but coming off and working on the PEA right now on the Phase 1, which is exactly with the material trucking that down, that's when we talked about potential 100,000 ounces of additional production a year starting as early as potentially late this year, early next year. Bill, do you want to talk about the time of the that study, where we are?

Bill Lytle

Analyst

Yes, for sure. Thanks for the question, Ovais. I think you remember when we talked before, we already have a study based on the previous resource, which was announced, which really shows economically that trucking is a viable option, right? So as you pointed out, we're coming out with a new resource right now which will be out by the end of Q1. Our plan is to take that resource and look at it and really kind of expand on the trucking concept for 2022. Basically, once we get that, we've already done all the environmental work. We've already done all the permit or all the feasibility work on that. We'll be going to the Malian government with that concept for a truck -- a Phase 1 trucking study as they continue to expand the resource, then we'll look at the next iteration of what does it look like for a stand-alone mill. I mean knowing that it would take a couple of years in any case to get the equipment ordered and to get it built up there, if that was the choice. There's some time on that. But in the meantime, we think there's real value in trucking down to Fekola.

Ovais Habib

Analyst

So from what I understand is Phase 1 is the trucking situation, that's likely happening or starting in 2022. Then as you increase your resource, then you'll start looking at the stand-alone, and then you've require additional permits and obviously, additional studies for that.

Bill Lytle

Analyst

Yes. For sure. I mean, 1 of the -- you made it may be more simplistic than it is. Knowing that we haven't seen the resource size at the end of March. I mean maybe those studies have start to happen, the Phase 2, start to happen immediately. But in the meantime, we still would have to look at trucking while we're getting everything set up for the Phase 2 portion of that.

Clive Johnson

Analyst

Yes. I think the whole custom business, which I think is really well, while we're permitting. And then don't forget, permitting of the saprolite. We're just talking about a little bit of washing and basically digging this out of the ground and putting the trucks and take it down. So there's no facility. There's nothing when it comes to permitting and it should be pretty straightforward in the government. It's very, very keen to within the laws and within the rules to get that permit in our hands as soon as possible. Basically, we're on the same page there. So that we're not -- conclude a process that we've been through it before, but we're not that concerned about that because of that stage. But while we're trucking the material now to add production through the Fekola mill in the saprolite material we're going to be doing extensive drilling. What's the next question, you mentioned this year for Anaconda area?

Mike Cinnamond

Analyst

$12 Million full --

Clive Johnson

Analyst

So that's a lot of drilling. It's not expensive drilling, we’re actually drilling from surface, and this is basically the ore body and the saprolite comes to the surface in many places. So we're going to find out a lot more by the end of this year with all the extensive drilling going on below the saprolite resource. So we have a new resource in mind, but we don't think that will be the end of it. But the potential basically is for another multimillion ounce discovery in Mali between saprolite and the sulfide. And that’s not something we say lightly. So that's why 1 of the reasons it's so attractive to us is putting that together in the near term, Phase 1 and then ultimately Phase 2. But I would suggest to you by the end of this year with all that’ts doing going on, we're not going to have that indicated resource on the huge amounts of the sulfide material. But we're going to have real indications of how big this thing might be, and that's the approach. And in theAnaconda areas the upside. Could the Fekola complex, if we dare to project ahead a little bit, produce 1 million-ounce gold a year, we think it has that kind of potential subject to we're drilling and what we're seeing becoming reality.

Ovais Habib

Analyst

Got it. Okay. And just quickly moving on to the -- towards Fekola. Last time we talked -- and this is maybe a question for Tom. Any update you can provide on the TMG zone, which is adjacent to the Cardinal Zone, how that's shaping up? Is it looking like another Cardinal or how should we perceive the TMG zone?

Tom Garagan

Analyst

I assume you mean the FNZ on or FMZ zone.

Ovais Habib

Analyst

That's right.

Tom Garagan

Analyst

Yes. It's a parallel zone that hasn't been drilled to the same extent as Cardinal, although part of the FMZ zone is included within the Cardinal resource. Exploration this year will we're spending most of -- not most, a good significant part of our exploration dollars are going to be in the in the Mamba area for sulfide in the down plunge extension and the underground potential for Fekola, but we will be doing some drilling in FMZ. And also in Cardinal. Cardinal has opened down plunge also. There's 2 significant looking– of should we say we see there that have potential for future underground also. So we'll be looking at that. So yes, that will be part of our program.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Josh Wolfson with RBC.

Josh Wolfson

Analyst · RBC.

When looking at the upside from the various sources of Fekola, the prior guidance was that Anaconda could add 80,000 to 100,000 ounces and then Cardinal could add 60,000 ounces. I guess I'm just wondering what that baseline is. And then if we think about what the net result is from those additions, can that sustain the mine at 600,000 ounces. And I guess, for how long?

Clive Johnson

Analyst · RBC.

Well, for the how long you can add capacity exploration right.

Mike Cinnamond

Analyst · RBC.

So yes, so Josh, talking -- let's go back to -- you got to step back a little bit further than what your question is. Remember, last year, we were operating at 7.75 million tonnes per annum. This year, we've increased to 9 million tonnes per annum. And as part of that, the Cardinal resource is already in there, right? So that kind of 60,000 to 80,000 is already kind of baked into what we're talking about for 2022 and going forward. Now with the additional 1 million tons, what you're really talking about is how much additional can you add from Anaconda. And quite frankly, at this point, without getting a full mine plan together, I don't want to put a hard number on it. What I will tell you is that we've been kind of very public that in the short term, we're looking at 80,000 to 100,000 ounces over the next couple of years -- per year. That's correct, per year. And the long term, we kind of see that 600,000 ounces plus/minus, and I'm going to do plus minus hand wave a little bit, is pretty achievable certainly in the near term at Fekola.

Josh Wolfson

Analyst · RBC.

Okay. So I guess, in other words, what point would you start to see some pressure materialize from maybe the grade profile? Is that after a year 3, 4, 5? Just wondering how much visibility we have today.

Mike Cinnamond

Analyst · RBC.

Yes. I think if you -- first, you should go all the way back to when we did the feasibility study put it out, and then look at what the kind of overall profile was for Fekola, and then take a look at what we updated. And what I can say is really, I think, really out to 2026, we feel pretty good about where we're at. And then, of course, we have -- we haven't even talked at all about what could be the potential of the Fekola underground, what that looks like. So there's a lot of things still in the work. So what I can tell you is in the short term, 600,000 sounds great. In 2026, we really have to look at how we're going to supplement that grade.

Clive Johnson

Analyst · RBC.

In terms of the ultimate as we said, we're going to lock by the end of the year in terms of all the exploration really going on and we feel really going on and had a comp in the not only separate sulfide as well. So we'll have a pretty good idea of where we're going. And as the resource that comes on in March, is of interest in terms of the sulfide portion of that, then we will alleviate very well around that time, we start to kick off permitting for something for a mill to get that process started. So if the plant is aligned, we'll progress for a year, for example, you've progressed into substantially larger production potentially with a mill subject to all the drilling we're doing, and then the ore reserves ultimately. So that's the -- as we see it, the play out right now, the timing could work rather well because you have this great source initially on a saprolite material, which you can cheaply turn to the mill. And because it's so soft, you can actually add it on top of the $9 million.

Mike Cinnamond

Analyst · RBC.

Yes. And maybe just to expand on that, 1 of the things we're looking at, we did this when we did Fekola. We kind of looked at this optimization, little optimization. And we see that as a very real project coming up where we've really got an outlook at -- you've got Cardinal, you've got Anaconda, you've got the underground, you've got Fekola. You've got a mill now that runs at 9 million tonnes per annum at least. So we really want to take a look at kind of optimizing all the sources. And that's a study that we're going to start this year. And of course, that will be ongoing as the resource gets updated. So I don't want to be too cagy, but I just think projecting too far out there is really not appropriate at this time because I don't think we know how good it can actually get yet.

Clive Johnson

Analyst · RBC.

Between March new resource at the end of the year alone, we're doing those are the important things we will fill in. Hopefully, this -- we'll be able to supply you with the detail. I mean if you want to look back for a reference point, you look back at what Fekola was when we acquired with the formally announced resource and 3 million of value reserves. And look what Fekola became 70 million. These situations can grow rapidly as we get in Fekola by ceasing the opportunity to drill construction covering a much larger deposit than we acquired in the highly accretive [Indiscernible]

Josh Wolfson

Analyst · RBC.

Okay. Stay tuned. And moving over to Gramalote for a second. We've seen commentary from some of your peers about inflation for capital running at a rate at least year-over-year, consistent, I guess, in the 10% to 20% range, most of them are towards the upper end of that. Ignoring the potential impact from the optimization, is there any sort of reason we should not apply the same sort of thinking to what the base case would be for Gramalote.

Mike Cinnamond

Analyst · RBC.

Yes. So remember, the last feasibility was based on Q1 2021 costs. So we don't have -- the costs haven't come in yet, but we do believe there is going to be an increase. And I would say that it's not going to be that different than what you're seeing in the industry.

Clive Johnson

Analyst · RBC.

So remember, we've been working hard at significant changes realistic changes in engineering design, et cetera, rods, et cetera, and tunnels and stuff to bring that capital cost down because we thought it was a better project with a -- we were basing this before what kind of worked on a long time ago work, but that's where we decided the -- this could be a better project by some fundamental changes to the approach that's where the capital is potential to reduce. So if the capital comes down from the $900 million, which it is, then the question is, how does it come down? And then is there a portion of that you lose back because of inflation. So that's going to be the issue, but the good news is we won’t have to expect for too much longer here with the study available -- results of the study hopefully at the end of the second quarter study and its not in the third quarter, so -- and that will lead to more development decision or not.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Don DeMarco with National Bank Financial.

Don DeMarco

Analyst · National Bank Financial.

First question for Mike. Mike, what is the quarterly weighting of the $290 million in cash taxes? I mean is it just simply like similar to last year, like heavier in H1?

Mike Cinnamond

Analyst · National Bank Financial.

I think -- give me a second here, and I'll tell you that. It's probably pretty even through the year, I'd say.

Don DeMarco

Analyst · National Bank Financial.

Okay.

Mike Cinnamond

Analyst · National Bank Financial.

In 2021, we had that big catch up because we had that fumble year in ’20 that we had to pay higher taxes on in 2021. And what you saw through the current year, remember, like I said, we've got about $70 million to pay at the end of 2021. More than half of that -- so that's the dividend. So really, there's not that much outstanding tax related to '21 to be settled up in '22. So it's -- I would say it's more evenly distributed in the Qs next year.

Don DeMarco

Analyst · National Bank Financial.

Okay. Good. So you guys have had a couple of years now where production costs are back-end loaded. Would you expect recurring back-end loaded years going forward?

Mike Cinnamond

Analyst · National Bank Financial.

As in after '22 or just for '22?

Don DeMarco

Analyst · National Bank Financial.

After '22.

Mike Cinnamond

Analyst · National Bank Financial.

Yes. No, that's kind of the beauty of some of the things we're doing, like the Otjikoto with the underground coming online, we think the that house profile is going to kind of level itself up. Same thing in Fekola. Now with Cardinal and everything, we've got additional sources. It was really related to the way the ore body was laid out around Fekola and Otjikoto, where you're kind of working up and down within the zone to the high-grade material. So I think that, that will kind of level itself out.

Don DeMarco

Analyst · National Bank Financial.

Okay. I figured that might be the case. Now just shifting over to Fekola. We see that you're forecasting potential Cardinal production of about 60,000 ounces over the next 6 to 8 years. Even if you hit 60,000 over 8 years, I mean, that's total production less than 500,000 ounces versus a total resource of 1.2 million. Can you comment on that differential? It seems to me a face value that there is some upside at Cardinal beyond what this preliminary forecast is.

Mike Cinnamond

Analyst · National Bank Financial.

Yes. I think you answered your own question. There's a lot of upside. I mean, once again, on the operational side, we just kind of looked at what we can put into a reserve based on the drilling there. But of course, they continue to drill and explore that and turn that -- inferred into indicated. So the answer is yes, there's upside.

Clive Johnson

Analyst · National Bank Financial.

Its beyond that. We're opened that to depth of strike where it opens the north -- So yes, more they're both journey inferred into indicated but also it's still open. Can we add more.

Don DeMarco

Analyst · National Bank Financial.

Okay. And just finally, for 2021, which is the Fekola throughput around 7.75 million, you hit 9.14 million 2022 were nice to see 9 million, but does that all things equal -- are you aiming for higher than 9 million. What does 9 million do?

Mike Cinnamond

Analyst · National Bank Financial.

Is 1 of the thing what have you done for us lately questions. So the answer is, remember, we started at 4 million and went to 5 million and then went to 6 million to 7.5 million and now we're at 9 million. We did originally maybe John should -- but we did do a study where we looked at 10 million and go into 10 million. And we've got the capacity to do that. It will be tight, but it will also be very expensive because it's not just upgrading the pumps and the motors and everything, it's actually adding an additional line. So we certainly think that there is some, I would say, incremental upside, but we don't see that operating this thing at full on all the time is in the best interest to make sure as far as the maintenance goes. So I think 9 million is probably the right number, plus/minus, given the 10% to 15% saprolite.

Don DeMarco

Analyst · National Bank Financial.

And congratulations again on a strong finish to the year.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. Please proceed.

Clive Johnson

Analyst

Okay. Thanks, operator. Thanks, everyone, for your good questions and your attention, and we look forward to further positive reporting as we go forward. Thank you all.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have a great day.