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B2Gold Corp. (BTG)

Q3 2022 Earnings Call· Wed, Nov 2, 2022

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day. My name is Michelle, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the B2Gold Third Quarter 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. Thank you. Mr. Johnson, you may begin your conference.

Clive Johnson

Analyst

Thank you, Michelle. Welcome, everyone. We're here to talk about as Michelle said, we're here to talk about the financial results for the third quarter of 2022 as we released them last night. I'm going to hand over to Mike shortly here to talk about -- Mike Cinnamond, our CFO, to talk about the financial results, and then Bill Lytle will give us an update on operations. As we previously announced in the production release for the third quarter, we were less than budget in terms of our ounces produced. And there are reasons for that which are detailed in the news release and we'll discuss them as well. Primarily it was higher much higher than expected rainfalls, the difficult to mine, which will allow us to access some higher grade material that was projected in our budgets. And the other main other factor was being behind schedule at Otjikoto and giving the other growth, because we had placed a contractor who was not performing with a better contractor and both of those things are identified clearly as primary as the driving force by being and line in production. And both of those are issues that are and rectify themselves as we speak. In fact, at the Fekola mine, we have a subject to finals to final auditing. We had produced approximately 77,000 ounces in October for Fekola. So that's getting into this much better grade than we couldn't get into before because of the rains, and that's the kind of performance we expect for each of the months in the fourth quarter, which if you do the math, takes us back to the projections that we have. That's why we have announced in the release very importantly, I think that we are very confident to say that we are…

Michael Cinnamond

Analyst

Thanks, Clive. I think Clive's basically set the theme there for the Q and had a look at it in the quarter year-to-date. So I'm going to try and focus just putting -- I put this quarter in context of where we worked the half year, where we are at the end of the 9 months and where we expect to be for the full year. So as we've reported in results, production was lowered, 45,000 ounces in the Q overall, on a consolidated basis. And that's really -- it's a great -- it's driven by great and it's a temporary change in mine sequencing that's driven that great issue that we think it is recoverable and, overall, in the year. So we did have heavier than normal seasonal rainfall in Fekola and that limited our ability to access the higher grade ore in Phase 6 of Fekola pit, which is what we've been stripping towards and forecast to produce in the second half of the year. And then we also had delays that -- than we did identify earlier in the year and getting into the Wolfshag. And the Wolfshag Underground, higher grade ore, that were lower development rates earlier in the year and we identified that as a problem. We did replace our mining contractor there and underground development has picked up. And this is on budget now, but it didn't mean that Wolfshag production get pushed out. We felt we may have some of it in Q3, but it's actually got pushed into Q4, and when we get into the higher grades there. So really it's a sequencing issue. When you take into the context of the whole year, we expect to see it reversed in Q4. Fekola Phase 6, it's forecasted the grades for that whole…

Clive Johnson

Analyst

Thanks, Mike. Okay, we'll pass it over to Bill give us an indication of Waihi and the operations team are so confident about our ability to meet our projections for these.

William Lytle

Analyst

Yes, thanks Clive. As Mike and Clive have kind of already -- at a high level, talked about, really there were two key issues -- it really boils down in two key issues. The Underground at Otjikoto, which I think we've really, since Q1, kind of been forecasting that we were going to be behind. So that shouldn't really be a surprise. And then, of course, the water issue at Fekola. Starting just working our way around all three operations, Masbate, we see in Q4, no issues there. It's steady state. As you've seen the other three quarters, we certainly see us -- we don't see any issues coming in at the lower end of our uplifted guidance. Otjikoto is -- it's been discussed. We changed out the mining contractor in April -- they got on site in April. It took them, obviously, a couple of months to get themselves all ramped up. But as of June, they were meeting or exceeding the development meters as the production schedule required. And we -- as Mike indicated, we've already got into some stope ore. And so we see in Q4 a very good quarter kind of putting us at the lower end of our revised guidance for Otjikoto. And then at Fekola, Clive hinted at or said it actually, in October, we had an amazing month in excess of 76,000 -- almost 77,000 ounces unreconciled, of course, it's still early in the month. But we see -- we definitely see the grades that we wanted to see. We have removed the water from the pit. And we don't see any issues. We're out of the rainy season now. So we don't see any issues for November and December, really seeing very similar numbers in production. As Mike said, we were seeing…

Clive Johnson

Analyst

Thanks, Bill. Just before we open for questions, just to mention the exploration we've had some tremendous results that we've put out in the Anaconda region not about center, not only giving us great encouragement about the validity of building a second plant for oxide. As we discussed that could increase production to be in the thousand ounces a year from Fekola potentially. And that continues with very good results. We are expanding that oxide through this entire 25-kilometer belt we have now. But also some of the excellent drill results we've seen in Mamba and other areas. And Anaconda and now further result indicate that potential for additional Fekola sulfide type deposits -- its extensive potential throughout the belt with numerous targets, some renewed previously, some renewed based on some of the acquisitions that we've been doing. So we see this very, as Tom Garagan likes to say and the other exploration guys talked about internally is that we see this despite the great success of starting at 4 million ounces at Fekola being somewhere over 10 million ounces in resource. Now we really see it -- we're still actually in the early stages of exploration of this rather extraordinary gold belt what we now call as Bill likes to call it the Fekola Complex. But so more results coming out through the year with several rigs turning with our major program looking to further expand the oxide, saprolite material deposits, but also intriguingly following up with some of these really good grade material below through numerous targets something on the belt. So -- but we're all sort of exploring in Finland and other areas and exploration has been a big part of the success of B2Gold -- for B2Gold for holding that for many years. So that continues around -- successfully around the mine sites, but also additional opportunities. The cheapest ounces will always be the ones you find. So we have substantial exploration programs looking for more gold. With that, Michelle, we will open up for questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Lawson Winder of Bank of America Securities.

Lawson Winder

Analyst

I wanted to start off with a question on M&A. So as you scour the globe for potential acquisitions or keep your eyes open for potential acquisitions, are you seeing any opportunities today? And what are the target geographies and sort of how large of an acquisition are you guys thinking you could make, if the opportunity comes along?

Clive Johnson

Analyst

Sure Lawson well, I think the good news is we're said open across the entire spectrum given our success in the past and given our technical strength and our exploration capabilities along of the rest of the ability to -- we're so financially strong and also so technically strong do the exploration, but also construction. And because of our track record -- B2Gold, we're being able to do this almost anywhere in the world successfully, time and time again. And we always talk about that comes from the corporate culture and the -- perhaps, secret sauce of just delivering on the promises you make everywhere you go. So we're -- we can look at everything from, as we said now, early stage exploration joint ventures or investments in juniors, who are on-site projects, we think are exciting. But we can add to help them financially, but also help them with some exploration expertise and, perhaps a larger relationship down the road. We're also looking for potentially development projects. We have our construction team guys Bill mentioned getting busy now on the Fekola Complex in the Anaconda region et cetera. But we have the capability to take on another development projects, if we find the right fit. Our history through both B2Gold has been very disciplined with our tense due diligence, but very disciplined about the acquisitions we do. They have to be accretive based on a reasonable gold price, perhaps it makes sense to all of our stakeholders to why would we do transactions like that. Now, in every case we've done, every acquisition we've done, we've never paid up for exploration upside, I don't we should the same, on the other hand. We've always found tremendous exploration upside to make an accretive acquisition look even better. So, also potential…

Lawson Winder

Analyst

Okay a lot of fruitful thought there. If I may -- I might just ask 2 more questions, I wanted to ask about the Mali and mining company audit that I think, we've all heard about, and just get your thoughts on the nature of that. And whether or not there is an expectation that could be potential changes to the mining code coming or if there's some other read-through to take from that?

Clive Johnson

Analyst

I'll pass it to Mike.

Michael Cinnamond

Analyst

Yes okay so I think that the audit is pretty way ranging. I think it's basically looking at how mining companies and governments interact, as I understand it. So I think from our point of view, it's pretty well placed in terms of the audit that it's going. Well, you see changes to the mining code. I think we've heard rumors maybe of the new mining code, obviously, whichever mining code you're under for your license under you stabilize. Could be looked forward and change it may be. But I think they're also trying to figure out under the government and the company's best interact for the benefit of mining overall in Mali. So I would say there is no, no significant ones, I want to comment on right now. Bill is probably a bit closer to it. So he may want to add something.

William Lytle

Analyst

So I think, you materially said what they're looking for. We've actually been very working very close with them. And what we're hearing is what they're really trying to do, there's a lot of talk in Mali amongst the general population, is Mali getting the benefit out of what -- out of their goals, right. And so this is really the government's attempt to try and quantify what they actually earn from mining. So we see it as a very -- as any audit could as far as any audit could be, I suppose. We see it as a positive thing that Mali certainly could understand now just how much they do benefit from having foreign investment for sure. And the other thing is, as part, of this they've actually asked from our side, are there any things that we -- that we think the government can do to improve the relationship. So it is a bit of a 2-way street. So while it is still in audit at least it seems on the face -- that they're trying to make it better.

Clive Johnson

Analyst

Yes just a couple of [things]. So we don't consider to be a predatory audit per se. This is something where, I think it's really, I'm glad you asked the question, because it's really important to understand the history of gold mining in Mali, the history of governments, of good government policies and laws towards foreign investment. And mining is very important part of the economy and some massed on the current government or previous governments or future governments and it's a great relationship. We have an excellent relationship. And if you listen to the government talk about B2Gold, we're definitely being hold us up as a good example of what they want in terms of responsible, transparent, respectful foreign investors. So we're very comfortable there and working very closely. And the government is a 20% partner, don't forget, not only Fekola, but also in the entire Fekola Complex. So the government when we talk about Anaconda, they says -- they say it was how fast you can get into production, because of the substantial revenues. Another point I'd make is, as Bill said, every all other people around the world are trying to figure out what the benefits of local communities and countries are to the mining industry, where as they should do with every industry. But if you look at a case like, once we recoups the original $500 million, $600 million of capital cost to build the mines, we funded it 100%. Then you -- then the numbers suggest that the numbers show that the benefit of -- from operating activities from the profitability of the mine and the benefit credits the mine, the Mali people through their government, through 20% ownership, through dividends, royalties, et cetera, actually get more than 50% of the economic benefit of…

Lawson Winder

Analyst

Okay fantastic. And then just one final question, which would be on looking into 2023 on costs, but in particular, the Fekola Complex development. So it sounds like you're pretty far advanced, if you expect to have a study out in Q2 of next year. Can you give us an idea of what kind of CapEx you would expect that project to be overall? But then more, I mean, also very importantly, how much of that CapEx would you expect to show up in 2023? And just if you can provide any sort of sense of directionally where you think CapEx will be going in 2023 versus 2022 and that's it from me?

Michael Cinnamond

Analyst

Yes so, I think John would kill me, if I started throwing numbers out. It seems we're just starting the study tomorrow and he sitting there. And he is sitting right next to me. So I don't want to -- I don't want to comment on. Certainly, when we did kind of the scoping level study, we were throwing kind of back of the envelope numbers around, which I think we actually put out there mill at $300 million or something like that. But that was just a kind of a scale up from a study we've done earlier. So let us take a little bit of time and get some real numbers in and come back to you. But we do have -- we've got a major tailings expansion next year. We're doing whole tailings facility. So that's a big one. Certainly, as you know, we're putting in the road to the Underground. We've got $50 million in capital already in this year for that. So all those projects will continue to ring the budget cycle right now. So I don't want to see what the final numbers are until we talk about it internally.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Anita Soni.

Anita Soni

Analyst

I just had -- some of the -- most of the questions were often asked about costs going into next year. But let me just get a little bit more color on Otjikoto and the types of grades and tonnage that you're expecting to see at Wolfshag in Q4. And will that persist onwards at this point, or should we expect a bit of a pullback in the first half of the year, next year?

Clive Johnson

Analyst

So you're talking specifically about the Underground?

Anita Soni

Analyst

Yes I am, talking especially Wolfshag the Underground yes?

Clive Johnson

Analyst

Okay so, just so happens and I asked because I thought somebody would ask this today. Reading email from site we're really talking about there is in excess of 6 grams in Q4 and then from -- coming from Underground, of course, that'll be blended, as you know, with the open pit and some of the lower grade stuff. And in particular -- in particular, full well, like so basically over the next little bit -- particularly for the next year, we're 6 plus grams.

Anita Soni

Analyst

Okay and what kind of tonnage, are you guys pulling now out of the Underground?

Clive Johnson

Analyst

Well, let's just say for the year, we're going to project about -- just about 73,000 tonnes.

Anita Soni

Analyst

And the full ramp-up rate is what for the Underground?

Clive Johnson

Analyst

Yes I don't have that. I think Peter Montano is online. He probably -- Peter, can you jump in here.

Peter Montano

Analyst

Yes so we're in the range of 1,000 tonnes a day long-term, but that's -- there some variability on that, especially because we're just preparing that first open now. So I think in another quarter or two, we'd be able to give you some much better information on that.

Anita Soni

Analyst

Okay. And then I guess a little bit more color on what you similar in terms of cost. As we're seeing costs, you talked about some of the offsets in the good Q4 that you're going to have, but as you go into next year, how are you looking at costs? Is it going to be more similar to the unit costs that you've seen in the third and what we'll see in the fourth quarter or is it -- are you already -- are you seeing any abatement in some of these inflationary pressures? Would you have some grades to offset it or rather sort of operational efficiencies that you can talk about?

Clive Johnson

Analyst

Yes so it's a bit of a mixed bag, right.

Anita Soni

Analyst

Yes.

Clive Johnson

Analyst

Certainly we've had a look at what the fuel. What we think fuel is going to do and then, of course, had a look at that in life of mine, but there's also shipping costs that we're starting to see some of those down. So it's a bit of a mixed bag. Once again we're right in the middle of the budget process, so it's tough to say where we're going to end up here. You got to give us another quarter.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Don DeMarco of National Bank Financial.

Don DeMarco

Analyst

First question to Mike so Mike, guidance is unchanged, but if you -- you have that guidance for the cash flow from operations in Q2, you mentioned, it's $575 million for the year. How is that tracking is that also still unchanged?

Michael Cinnamond

Analyst

I think while a couple of things there. That number had $1,700 gold price assume for the balance of the heater, obviously, we're seeing a lower number right now. We did see some cost inflation, like I mentioned, below overall will be at -- if we're at the higher the cash customers, we may see some of that ground away in terms of overall operating cash flow. And then the other thing, just as we get into Q4, it's grade based right. So it's grade weighted. So there maybe -- the portion will be on at the end of the quarter to see what we can get sold frankly. There may be a slight production -- or there may be a slight lag between production and sales as we get those higher grade ounces through the mill and available for sale. So I'd say yes 575, we may be tracking some of that right now, but it's a little hard to say until we see how this great sequencing is going to work and our production profile is going to work in Q4.

Don DeMarco

Analyst

Okay, okay great. Then just shifting couple of questions for Bill and Bill, so continuing some of the questioning on Wolfshag from last caller so are you actually producing ore from stopes right now?

William Lytle

Analyst

Literally right now, I think -- I think like yesterday or the day before was the first time that they slashed and delivered to the mill.

Don DeMarco

Analyst

Okay, okay it sounds great. And then moving to another potential Underground operation in Fekola, you mentioned Underground Fekola. What would be the timing of a release, a maiden Underground resource?

William Lytle

Analyst

Well, that's a good question for probably Brian. I mean if you remember the whole intent of developing the Underground is to get down to the face and drill it off at the face as opposed to kind of releasing a resource. So I don't know.

Don DeMarco

Analyst

Yes I guess my question really just comes from just trying to get an idea of what the grades, might be like 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 grams per tonne. I'm not sure, when we have an idea. Do you have any sense right now what the Underground grade potential might be?

Clive Johnson

Analyst

Brian, you take that.

Brian Scott

Analyst

Yes, it's going to be in the 4 to 6-gram range right now, everything is inferred and that spacing sort of varies between 60 to 40 meters, depending if you're looking at down plunge or down dip, but the plan is, as Bill said, to get Underground. And once we underground, and we can start drilling off the Underground and updating that inferred material to sort of an Underground indicated. So maybe by end of Q1 next year we might be able to look at releasing what it would look like and then inferred above certain cut-off grades in that 4 to 6 grams.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will turn the conference back to you.

Clive Johnson

Analyst

Okay, thanks, Michelle, and thanks everyone for joining us and have great day.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines.