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Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (BUD)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 25, 2016

$72.75

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Anheuser-Busch InBev Full Year 2015 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. Hosting the call today from AB InBev is Mr. Carlos Brito, Chief Executive Officer. To access the slides accompanying today's call, please visit AB InBev's website now at www.ab-inbev.com, and click on the Investors tab. Today's webcast will be available for on-demand playback later today. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. Some of the information provided during the conference call may contain statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements. These expectations are based on the management's current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainty. It is possible that the company's actual results and financial condition may differ, possibly materially, from the anticipated results and financial condition indicated in these forward-looking statements. For a discussion of some of the risks and important factors that could affect the firm's future results, see Risk Factors in the company's latest Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 24, 2015. AB InBev assumes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking information provided during the conference call and shall not be liable for any action taken in reliance upon such information. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Mr. Carlos Brito. Sir, you may begin.

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Thank you, Jackie, and good morning, good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our full year 2015 earnings call. As usual, let me start with the highlights. 2015 was a year of strong organic top line growth with particularly strong performance from our three global brands. We continued to invest behind our brands in 2015 to drive long-term growth while still delivering solid EBITDA growth and margin enhancement. In late 2015, we also announced the proposed combination with SABMiller and so let me recap where we are with the transaction before continuing with the review of our results. The proposed combination was announced on November 11 and included an agreement with Molson Coors on the disposal of SAB's Miller stake in MillerCoors, conditional on the closing of the main transaction. In addition, in January we received a biding offer from Asahi for the purchase of certain SAB's European premium brands and their related businesses. We have also pre-funded approximately $47 billion off the purchase price through U.S. dollar bond issuances which allowed us to partially cancel $42.5 billion of the $75 billion committed senior facilities. Integration planning is well underway but our focus is on obtaining the necessary regulatory clearances so that we can close the transaction in the second half of the year. Let's now look at the full year results in more detail. Total revenue grew by 6.3% in 2015 with revenues from our global brands growing by 12.6%. Revenue per hectoliter grew by 7.7% on a constant geographic basis driven by our revenue management initiatives and strong growth from our premium brands. Total volumes were down 0.6% in the year with own beer marginally down and non-beer down 4.7%. Volumes of Focus Brands grew by 0.4% while volumes of our global brands grew by 7.3%. EBITDA grew by…

Operator

Operator

The floor is now open to questions. Our first question comes from the line of Nik Oliver with UBS.

Nik Oliver - UBS Ltd.

Analyst · UBS

Thanks for the questions. Can I please start with you craft strategy in the U.S.? You highlighted the continued double-digit growth. I'm just interested in one, how many craft brands you think you can support on the portfolio? What percentage of U.S. volumes craft actually can become over time? And whether you see any of those U.S. brands having potential to travel internationally?

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Hi, Nik. Brito here. Craft is a growing segment in the U.S. That goes without saying. It's also very profitable. That's why we felt we had to reinforce our portfolio with a couple of craft brands from different regions. I think it's only fair to offer to our wholesalers and to our consumers an option in that segment as well. The segment is growing, and it's profitable. So for sure some of those have a global potential, but even before global potential let's talk about the national potential. Craft is in itself a very local or regional play. But many crafts have become national crafts. And in our portfolio Goose IPA that grew 150% in 2015. It's showing that there are consumers out there that, yes, will consider a national craft. So now the next question is what about consumers, the global consumers, will they consider a national or international or global craft? We think the answer is yes, and we have thoughts around this.

Nik Oliver - UBS Ltd.

Analyst · UBS

Great. Thanks a lot. And just as a quick follow-up, I see in the guidance you mentioned that you expect the U.S. market to improve overall. Do you expect ABI to do a better performance in volume terms overall as well, either in terms of a lower volume decline or just sequential improvement?

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Yeah, I mean our guidance comes from the fact that the trends in the U.S. industry development every year has been getting better and better. So last year, if I'm not mistaken, was 0.6%. This year was 0.3% negative. But last quarter was 0.15% positive. Of course, the weather helped 0.15% positive percentage points. So we think the economy continues to create jobs, that's important. Gas prices are down, so, and the trend is positive. So there's momentum there and we think that's the outlook we have for the industry. We will continue to try to not only help the industry grow or come back to growth, but also balance our market share, but doing it in a way that makes sense for the long term, and that's why we're investing ahead of the curve and investing ahead of top line growth in the U.S. Because we believe that there is lots of great opportunities to build an even better business for the future.

Nik Oliver - UBS Ltd.

Analyst · UBS

Okay. Thanks very much.

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Thanks, Nik.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Sanjeet Aujla with Credit Suisse. Sanjeet S. Aujla - Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Ltd.: Hi. A couple questions, please. Firstly, on your outlook for China, one of your competitors has given a bit more positive outlook expected, and stabilization. Can you just talk about the current dynamics and why you seem to differ in your view? Secondly, just on your outlook for sales and marketing investments, particularly with regard to the U.S., can you just give us a sense of where the priorities are, what are the big activations, and do you commit to improving your market share performance in 2016 there? Thanks.

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Hi, Sanjeet. In terms of China what we said in our outlook is that we expect industry volumes to remain under pressure in 2016. But we expect our volumes to perform better than the industry, as we've had the last few years, driven by the fact that we're heavily skewed towards premium and super premium brands. So industry in China was 6% down in the year, in last year. But as we said in our Investor Meeting in China, China is not about averages. Averages can be misleading. And if you look at 2015, the segments, super premium grew by 18%. That's our own – that's the (36:47). Premium grew by 9%. Core+ grew by 3.8%. Core and value declined by 10.8%. And that gives the 5.8% or 6% down from the industry in the fiscal year. And because more than half of our volume today and growing very different from the market is in Core+, premium, super premium, that's why we've been able to gain share and increase the profitability, grow EBITDA by 33%, top line by double digits, even in an industry where volumes are down by 6%. So we think that the blue collar consumer is under pressure, not the service sector type consumer, that's why in our opinion value and core segments are down. But Core+, premium, super premium are up, and we're very happy to see that our business is more skewed towards those segments that are growing. So let's go where the growth is. So that's China. In terms of the U.S., sorry, could you repeat? Did you ask about market share? Sanjeet S. Aujla - Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Ltd.: Yeah. It was just really what are your priorities on sales and marketing investments in the U.S.? And whether you can commit to a better market share performance in that market? Or when do you expect to get close to stabilization in market share in the U.S.? Thanks.

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Well, what we know about the U.S. is that some things are working, very important things. Some others are also very important are not yet there. So for example, Budweiser is negative yet – but it's still negative, but had its best year in decades. Michelob Ultra, the biggest brand in terms of share gain in the U.S., a big brand, Stella Artois double-digits growth, Goose Island and (38:39) gaining, craft gaining. Bud Light has performed better. The Rita family has performed better. But what we do in the U.S., because we're in this business for the long run, is that because now we have a portfolio that we feel that we have some winners, we're not only trying to fix the gaps we have, but we're also trying to feed the winners. And I think one of the things that gave me comfort on the direction we're proceeding in the U.S. is the number that's not public to you, which is U.S. gross profit. But I can give you the deltas. Since 2012 we have increased our gross profit margin by 1 percentage point from 2012 to 2013, another percentage point from 2013 to 2014, and by 0.8 percentage point last year. So for me, that tells me that the mix is going in the right direction. The EBITDA is not having the same dynamic because we are investing ahead of the curve because there's a mix shift in the U.S. and as a market leader, we would like to continue to support the current segments in which we're strong but also build our participation on the new emerging segments. So we have a little bit of an overlap there in terms of marketing investment but that's for a better future in which we have a more balanced portfolio. So gross profit gives me the perception or the idea or the certainty that we're moving in the right direction. Sanjeet S. Aujla - Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Ltd.: Thanks. And just a quick follow-up on dividends. The payout ratio moving up to 76%, are you able to or do you feel confident in being able to maintain that payout ratio going forward?

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Our dividend policy has never changed and it was never based on payout ratio. It's much more based on yields between 3% and 4% in growing dividends. And I think that's where we are right now. We are between 3% and 4% depending on the share price you get. And I think we're doing that because if you look at our cash flow from operating activities, despite global currencies and despite everything, despite as we invest more in (40:51) marketing and all that, we generated the same $14.1 billion that we've generated last year, 2014. So in 2014 we generated cash flow from operating activities $4.144 (sic) [14.144] (41:02) billion and in 2015 we generated $14.121 billion, so $14.1 billion. So we're able with our discipline and focus on financial metrics and execution to generate the same cash flow despite investing more in market and continue to grow dividends. Sanjeet S. Aujla - Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Ltd.: Great. Thanks.

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Thanks, Sanjeet.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Trevor Stirling with Bernstein.

Trevor Stirling - Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd.

Analyst · Trevor Stirling with Bernstein

Good morning, Brito and Felipe. First question from my side in terms of Bud Light, can you give us a bit more color on what the plans are on Bud Light? And what gives you the confidence that the Wieden & Kennedy work is going to succeed where the previous agencies didn't really deliver what you wanted?

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Yeah. That's a very good point. I mean Bud Light is the one that really we need to get to a better place because we have lots of things working in the U.S. Bud Light if it can stabilize the brand before it even grows it could be a big plus. So Bud Light, for example, now let me talk about Super Bowl because if I had some questions around that today during media interview and all. So on the Super Bowl, we kicked off our new campaign and we have very positive consumer feedback. Not only have we had millions of impressions and earned media, social mentions and all that, but more importantly in several brand measures like purchase intents helps me make a good impression, brings people together. I like the direction the brand is moving. There were significantly – statistically significant increases. And in terms of the Ace Score, which is a score that lots of companies to measure effectiveness of media, it was the highest score we've achieved for total Anheuser-Busch in the past three years, where beer drinkers age is 21 to 35, even more than the last from Budweiser from last year's Super Bowl. So again, this is only a piece of the puzzle. I think the other exciting thing about Bud Light, the whole thing about the visual identity that we're going to change beginning now in April. I think it will bring back some of the things that made Bud Light an 18%, 19% share brand in the U.S., like quality and heritage cues and things that we're missing in the last, back, that has been there for eight years now. I think it was time for a refresh. Wieden & Kennedy is an amazing creative agency. They are one of the few ones that are truly independent and they have really people that challenge you, that bring new ideas. And that's what we think for a brand like Budweiser that has always been creating culture in terms of being funny but smart funny and we want to go back to that. It really made the brand big, and they get that. They understand that. Of course, the campaign is not going to turn the brand on a dime or overnight, but Wieden & Kennedy is an agency that we have been looking at and trying to get on our side for a long time and finally they are – again, they are not going to make any miracles but we're very happy in working together with them with Bud Light. So we're very hopeful that this is a beginning of a new future with Bud Light.

Trevor Stirling - Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd.

Analyst · Trevor Stirling with Bernstein

Thank you, Brito. And my follow-up question is concerning Brazil. Can you tell us what the outlook is for excise taxes in Brazil with a government budget balances that must be under a lot of pressure?

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Well, yeah, I mean, Brazil is having a tough time, I mean they had a tough time in 2015. We're saying it's going to be a tough year in 2016. In terms of excise for beer, there was a new model that was approved last year, and there's already a tax increase scheduled for 2016, 2017 and 2018. So we already had a change so we continue to think that in terms of federal excise because the model has just changed, we would like to think and we're talking to the government all the time, that it makes sense to keep it this way. Because again, we're continuing to invest in the Brazil economy, continue to create jobs and consumers are already under pressure and we already gave our fair share to look at the taxation for Brazilian beer. That's one of the highest in the world. So I think we already paid of our fair share. And the different thing in Brazil of course is that each state of the 27 states have their own excise, not excise but value added tax as well and some states like Sao Paulo have already increased. That's an important state. Some others increased but much less than they had previously announced so that was good and so but that's going to be -you have to be vigilant and talking to them and trying to demonstrate that if it's all about tax collection, not about tax rate, they should look at the overall picture, not just about – not only about the tax rate. And I think the governments in Brazil understand that, but again, it's going to be a tough year in Brazil. We're not predicting. We're not trying to predict anything. We're just saying we're very active in that front.

Trevor Stirling - Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd.

Analyst · Trevor Stirling with Bernstein

Thank you very much, Brito.

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Thank you, Trevor.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Brett Cooper with Consumer Edge Research.

Brett Cooper - Consumer Edge Research LLC

Analyst · Brett Cooper with Consumer Edge Research

Good morning, guys. A quick question on the U.S. We've seen in the past some of your efforts whether it's Budweiser, Bud Light, the near beer or craft. Some succeed, some fail in any given year. What gives you the confidence that this year you can sort of manage all of those so that we can continue to see improvement in Budweiser while you improve the trend of Bud Light as an example? Thanks.

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Brett your voice is a bit muffled. I don't know exactly. Can you repeat the question? Maybe you're too close to the mic. I don't know what's going on.

Brett Cooper - Consumer Edge Research LLC

Analyst · Brett Cooper with Consumer Edge Research

Sure. My question is with respect to all the efforts in the U.S. and we've seen in the past when you succeed in certain areas, say the improvement in Budweiser, you seem to fall off in places like Bud Light. So what changes in 2016 or what gives you confidence that you can get all parts of the portfolio moving in the right direction?

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

I think one thing that's different about 2016 is that we have more clarity in our priorities and we have – we're working more closely with the wholesalers. I think that makes a big difference. So João, our new zone president there, has put a lot of emphasis in working with our partners, our wholesalers. The wholesalers, they're an amazing asset in the marketplace. They have an amazing penetration in the market and João has been doing a lot of the planning including parts of the three-year plan in terms of route to market with the wholesaler panel. So I think that's a big difference as well. And in terms of Budweiser, we'll continue with the voice of the brand. And then the brand struck a chord with consumers in terms of the Brewed the Hard Way. Interestingly enough, on the Super Bowl, last Super Bowl, Super Bowl 50, the drunk-drive message or the Simply Put ads of Budweiser was the highest scoring ad from all the ads we had in Super Bowl. And again, we'll scale on successful programs like Bud & Burgers that proved to be very effective during the summer. And Bud Light, again, I just answered the prior question, you have new visual identity, new campaign, new agency, and so we're very excited about it. And the debut of this new container was during the Super Bowl. So these two brands are of course our bread and butter, but the high end is growing very fast. And Michelob Ultra is a Core+, but also Stella, Goose Island and the other craft. So these are the things we need to get working at the same time. There's a lot of things working together now. We just need to add Bud Light to that group.

Brett Cooper - Consumer Edge Research LLC

Analyst · Brett Cooper with Consumer Edge Research

Great. Thank you.

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Thank you, Brett.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Pitcher with Redburn. Chris M. Pitcher - Redburn (Europe) Ltd.: Yeah. Good afternoon. It was a question on your field sales and marketing outlook for this year, Brito. You're talking about a high-single, low double-digit increase, which is $600 million to $800 million, that sort of range. Should we expect a disproportionate amount of that to be going into the United States? And can you give us a feel for how you're monitoring the effectiveness at that? If in two years the market share gains haven't improved, do you feel like you're over-investing, or do you think this rate of investment now in the U.S. is the new normal for competing as people become more brand focused and portfolios become more fragmented?

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

I think, Chris, you've known us for a long time. I mean, you know we're about metrics and we measure everything in the business. So we gave the guidance of high single- to low double-digits in terms of sales and marketing. We're doing that because we believe that there are opportunities that we should not pass. And in terms of crisis in some countries, that's when we feel even more excited about investing, because that's when competition normally takes the foot off the pedal. And in our history we've seen many times when we've either penetrated or acquired businesses during tough times in some countries where everybody was exiting, or whether – or when we press the pedal harder when everybody was taking their foot off the accelerator. And in terms of the U.S., again, as I was saying a couple questions before, what gives me the certainty that we are in the right direction is that when I look at the U.S. gross profit, a number that you don't have access to unless you go to the AmBev, you take Canada you can get there. But U.S. gross profit has been expanding by 1 percentage point every year since 2012. And so for me that tells me that the fourth quarter is getting more premium, that consumers are paying more for beers. It also tell us that we're in that point where I'm not taking money from the base. I'm adding money to get the momentum going on some new emerging segments that of course will not be there forever to get some critical mass and some momentum. Interesting also to say, it's in our press release, that the guidance for sales and marketing, high single to low single digits, is weighted more towards the first half of the…

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Well... Luis Felipe Pedreira Dutra Leite - Chief Financial & Technology Officer: (53:00) ...

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Okay. Go ahead, Felipe. Sorry. Luis Felipe Pedreira Dutra Leite - Chief Financial & Technology Officer: Chris, China continues to lead the way, which is a good source of inspiration and benchmark for the other zones. Other zones are catching really fast, Europe, so on and so forth. Americas, it's – are more on the bottom of the pack but also progressing quickly, and Brazil is in that pace as well. So we continue to see room for overall progress. Last year we reached the negative 12.1%. As you know, we are always raising the bar and aiming for higher, and we believe there's still room for growth. Chris M. Pitcher - Redburn (Europe) Ltd.: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Bucalo with HSBC.

Anthony Bucalo - HSBC Bank Plc

Analyst · Anthony Bucalo with HSBC

Brito, on U.S. wholesaling, where are we in terms of the evolution on wholesaler consolidation, or branch strategy, or exclusivity strategy? Have there been any sort of major changes in strategy or in approach over the last year or so?

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Hi, Tony. No. What we said is that WOD is something that we like to have some. Today our volumes are around 8% done through WODs. We think it serves the purpose of getting our people closer to the marketplace and also being able to train our people closer to the retailers and the trade in general. I think that's good not only because it gets us to get to know the market better, our competition better but also in the dialogue with the wholesalers, makes it more effective a dialogue because we know the reality they face every day. We've been operating WODs for more than 15 years and we feel totally – we feel that's part of our business. We also feel that it's totally in line with our support of the three-tier system. What João Castro Neves is doing in the U.S. now is trying to work much closer with the wholesalers in terms of planning of our road to market and activities in terms of the next year, the next three years and the Winning Together program that he put in place or mindset we think is working very well. So I think that's a change if you will. Other than that, I mean, it's business as usual. So we expect that we provide them a great portfolio of brands. We expect them to build brands with us and then we compete effectively in the marketplace. So no change there.

Anthony Bucalo - HSBC Bank Plc

Analyst · Anthony Bucalo with HSBC

Okay. What about exclusivity, Brito? Anything there? Anything changing there at all?

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

No. I mean we've had about this program VAIP, Voluntary Alignment Incentive Program that has been in place for 15 years. We just came with the new version. Like any program from time to time, you revamp it, you renew it but it's the basic program that has been there for 15 years. And it's just – and then the name says it's a voluntary program.

Anthony Bucalo - HSBC Bank Plc

Analyst · Anthony Bucalo with HSBC

Okay. Just one quick follow-up, Brito. On Bud Light sort of following up to Trevor's question, I think the positives of Bud Light are pretty obvious but when you're talking to your consumer, I mean Bud Light market share slippage has now been going on for a few years. I mean what is the challenge for consumers? Why is the brand losing market share and what key do you need to unlock to sort of get that back on track?

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Well, first, I think in a market as fragmented as the U.S. to have a brand with 18%, 19% market share is already an amazing thing in itself. On the other hand, I mean people want to grow. Of course they all target the big guy with the most of the shares. So that's one thing. I think the second thing is that for a number of years, the past few years, we have not afforded the brand. We have not given the brand to support an 18%, 19% share brand in the U.S. market, fragmented U.S. and competitive fragmented U.S. market deserves and I think now we're beginning to rebuild that. So for example, Budweiser has always been very connected to culture and fun in a smart way. At some point it becomes fun, but maybe in a more not so smart way. So we're trying to recover that because when we go back and see what made the brand what it is today, we're trying to recover not only the packaging and cues and communication, trying to recover a little bit of the, let's say, the founders' spirit of the brand of 20-plus years ago. So I think that's what's happening. And we're very hopeful now in April we're going to have a new visual identity, new campaign. It's just the first step, it was introduced in the Super Bowl. We had some very interesting comments from consumers, I just said, it was the highest ranking ad we've had in many years for total AB Company. So again, – and we're working with a great agency. So I think it's all good. And now we need to make it happen.

Anthony Bucalo - HSBC Bank Plc

Analyst · Anthony Bucalo with HSBC

Okay. Thank you.

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Thanks, Tony.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Caroline Levy with CLSA.

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Hello?

Operator

Operator

Caroline, your line is open.

Caroline S. Levy - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst

Hi. Can you hear me?

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Yes. Yes. Go ahead, Caroline. Hello?

Operator

Operator

Her question has been...

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Jackie , maybe...

Operator

Operator

Her question has been withdrawn. Our next question comes from Edward Mundy with Nomura.

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Edward. Okay.

Edward B. Mundy - Nomura International Plc

Analyst · Nomura

Good morning, everyone. Hi. Good morning, everyone. Since the announcement of the proposed combination with SAB, you've had three months to work on integration planning. Given the increasingly touch macro in many of SAB's core markets, are you more or less excited about the combination and the opportunity for value creation?

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

I'm more excited, because first the results organically have been better. Second, I've had chance through the integration planning to get to know a bit more of their markets, of course within the rules of what's allowed to be shared. I've met some of their people through the integration planning. And I'm more excited, because first, the results are better. Second, they are in very interesting markets, growth markets. They have some very strong brands, some great people that are in that. And currency is something that will be happening with the deal or without the deal. Of course it bothers you in the short term, but in the long term currency is the same way – they go, they come. And we come from Brazil, many of us Latin America, and we are in a way used to it. And again, if you look at last year cash flow from operating activity, even with all currencies and everything, more CapEx investment, more marketing investments, we delivered the same cash flow from operating activity of $14.1 billion. So we try to be disciplined. We try to find money in non-working ways or non-working monies to put to work. And so I'm more excited now than I was before.

Edward B. Mundy - Nomura International Plc

Analyst · Nomura

And as you look at the synergy opportunity of $1.4 billion, I mean, that's on a subsidiary revenue base of $16 billion. You just delivered $1 billion on a revenue base of $4 billion from Modelo. Are you still confident that $1.4 billion is the right number?

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Yeah. $1.4 billion is the number that we have up here, the number we committed, and that's the number we have. Yes.

Edward B. Mundy - Nomura International Plc

Analyst · Nomura

Thanks. And as a follow-up, just coming back to the dividend question again, could you comment on how you plan to balance deleveraging post-the combination of SAB and your aspiration for a dividend yield of 3% to 4%?

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Well, we said from when we announced the transaction that the dividend policy would be kept, and that was one of targeting yield between 3% and 4%, growing dividend, and we're very disciplined in terms of our messages, and that's what we intend to do.

Edward B. Mundy - Nomura International Plc

Analyst · Nomura

Great. Thank you.

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Swartzberg from Stifel Nicolaus. Mark Swartzberg - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Yes. Thanks. Good morning, Brito. Hi, Felipe.

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Morning, Mark. Mark Swartzberg - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: First question on n Brazil, Brito, is, I think your market share is down, approaching 100 bps, calendar 2015 on calendar 2014. And I know 2015 was a year focused on profitability. But even sequentially you had an improvement in the third quarter and I think that reversed in the fourth quarter. So, could you just speak a little bit about how enduring this share erosion is, what brand you think it is particularly an issue for? And then, this is very secondhand, I don't know that it is worth much of a response from you, but it seems that there may be an issue with ingredients in corn, that is an issue among some consumers of some of your brands down there more recently. So, if that is relevant to the larger topic? That would be great.

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

No. Our market share in the year was 67.5% according to Nielsen. That's within our 67% to 69%. And as you said, last year was a year of margins and profitabilities. So nothing strange in having the share more towards the bottom of the range. We've had this range now for, I don't know, over 15 years, and it's always the same story. I mean we bounce back when we get to say 67.5%. We go to 69% and come back, and that's pretty much how we operate, always trying to balance market share, profitability, tax increases, also inflation. All the things that we have to balance in Brazil, especially when the inflation's up and the country is going through a tough economic situation. So I don't see any issues there. I don't think this thing of corn or anything has anything to do with it. I think this is chatter. If you look at the health of our brands in Brazil, they're doing very well. If you look at Skol, our number one brand there had an amazing year. If you look at our premium brands they had also an amazing year, including the global brands. So I don't see anything in terms of the health of the brands that would say anything other than we are very strong, and this market share is based not only on the execution but also on consumers pooling and electing our brands. But having said that, market share does come up and down depending on the year, depending on the quarter, yes. Mark Swartzberg - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Okay, great. Felipe, you mentioned understandably that your tax rate guidance doesn't have any effect for the SAB transaction. But you also mentioned this topic of deductibility of a portion of the…

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

We have time for one additional question. Our final question comes from Tristan van Strien with Deutsche Bank.

Raoul-Tristan van Strien - Deutsche Bank AG

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Hi, good morning, Felipe. Good afternoon, Brito. First, as a follow-up on Chris's cash flow question earlier, your working capital had a nice $1 billion swing in your favor, which seems to be related to the timings of your capital expenditures, the tables of those. So, since this is a timing issue, is that something you expect to reverse next year, or is that something you keep hold on when we look at your working capital next year? And then, actually, my question was more on Mexico. When I back out your synergies this year and the last quarter, I can see contraction of both your margin as well as your EBITDA despite a very strong organic revenue line. So, when we think about next year, the higher sales and marketing costs you had this year, as well as the transactional FX impact you had this year, should we expect the same next year when we don't have these synergies anymore? Thanks.

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

So in terms of the working capital, we've been on this journey, as Felipe always says, since – I don't know – 10 years now or 9 years. And in the last few years we've been capturing $1 billion, $1 billion-plus per year in terms of change in working capital. So I think that continues to trend. As Felipe has said, we're getting closer to that 15% that we have as target. So I don't think there's anything there that's – it was a better year of course we had to get more disciplined because we wanted to continue with our activities despite the currency so maybe we look for more opportunities in a more intense way. In Mexico what's happening that you have also think about, and your second question, is that Bud Light is on fire and a lot of it because of lack of capacity in Mexico. Remember, we're building a new brewery in the Yucatan Peninsula for 5 million hectoliters. So we're bringing Bud Light from the U.S., a lot of it. That's impacted our costs. There is also still some marketing to fuel the brand growth. And the EBITDA growth from the numbers I have here was 368 bps, stages was 210 bps (68:17). So there was a EBITDA growth of 158 bps despite the logistics costs of Bud Light and despite some capacity constraints in Mexico that is forcing us to transport product from different breweries far away to make up for the fact that we don't have the capacity we need in Mexico and the fact that it's not always possible to predict 100% of what the market demand will be for different packs. So I think in next quarters we get that capacity in line, the profitability should take care of that.

Raoul-Tristan van Strien - Deutsche Bank AG

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Just a follow-up on Bud Light in Mexico then. Once you start getting more into local production, you'll be looking more returnables? Or just Bud Light remain a one-way pack in that market?

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

So you have both. You have both.

Raoul-Tristan van Strien - Deutsche Bank AG

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Both.

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

It started as a one-way pack. Now in the north of the country, you already have the returnable.

Raoul-Tristan van Strien - Deutsche Bank AG

Analyst · Deutsche Bank

Thank you very much.

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you.

Carlos Alves de Brito - Chief Executive Officer

Management

Well, Jackie, I think that's it. Let me just say a couple words here. So, once again, thank you for joining the call today. 2015 was a strong year in terms of top line and EBITDA growth despite the challenging macroeconomic environment in a number of our markets, particularly Brazil and China. Currencies also posed a challenge but discipline and attention to detail helped us to deliver another robust cash flow result. Our number priority will always be the organic growth of the business and especially top line growth. But we're also very excited about the proposed combination with SAB and are working hard to close the transaction in the second half this year. So I look forward to talking to you again in early May when we report first quarter results. Thank you and have a great rest of the day. Thank you. Bye.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. Please disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.