Michael O'Sullivan
Analyst
It's a good question. Let me start by putting 2024 into context with the last three years. If I go back to 2021, our trend was extraordinarily strong, stronger than peers, fueled by the impact of pandemic era benefits on our poor, lower income shoppers. Then in 2022, we came back down to earth with a bump as those shoppers were crushed by lower benefits and by big increases in their cost of living. Now those issues continue to bleed into the first half of 2023. So here we are, what to expect in 2024? I'm going to whisper this, but we think it's possible that 2024 could be the first full normal year since I joined Burlington in 2019. And that's kind of how we approached guidance for 2020. In normal times, before the pandemic, we would likely have planned a low single-digit comp and then been ready to chase. Of course, we don't know if the trend in 2024 will be stronger or weaker. There is plenty of economic uncertainty, interest rates, inflation, gas prices, as well as political and geopolitical risks even. But by planning 0% to 2% comp, we're positioning ourselves to react, I think, to an appropriate range of outcomes. If the trend is weaker than 2%, we can pull back and absorb it. If it's stronger than 2%, then we know we could chase it. I should add, in Q4, as we've just reported, we grew 2% comp versus last year, so that gives us some confidence that our 2024 guidance is reasonable. The key part of your question was about our longer-term outlook, so let me try and reconcile our 2024 guidance to a longer range target of mid-single-digit comp growth. In the years leading up to the pandemic, although we might have planned low-single-digit comp, the intent was always to chase above that. And measured over multiple years, our comp indeed averaged 3% to 4%. But we think that, as the after effects of the pandemic continue to recede, that's the right baseline for our longer term model. We believe all the underlying consumer, competitive and structural factors that drove that growth still exist. But, in addition, we know that we've taken significant actions to improve our own execution of the off-price model. And as those actions gain traction, we expect to outperform that 3% to 4% baseline. So, if I pull all this together, for the 12 months ahead, for 2024, our plan is based on low-single-digit comp growth with the potential to chase. In future years, I should add, it will likely take a similar approach, and I expect in some years, we'll chase and beat that number. In other years, we won't. But we believe over an extended period, a five-year period, we will be able to achieve average annual comp growth in the mid-single-digits.