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BW LPG Limited (BWLP)

Q4 2023 Earnings Call· Fri, Mar 1, 2024

$19.81

+5.48%

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Transcript

Lisa Lim

Operator

Welcome to BW LPG's Fourth Quarter 2023 Financial Results Presentation. Bringing you through the presentation today are CEO, Kristian Sørensen and CFO, Samantha Xu. We are pleased to answer questions at the end of the presentation. [Operator Instructions] Before we begin, we wish to highlight the legal disclaimers shown on the current slide. This presentation held on Zoom is also recorded. I now turn the call over to Kristian. Kristian Sørensen: Thank you, Lisa, and hi, everyone, and welcome to our 2023 Q4 presentation. I'm joined today by our CFO, Samantha. And together, we will take you through the slides. Q4 ended the strongest year on record for BW LPG. We achieved a time charter equivalent income per available day of $76,000 in a steaming hot VLGC market. And together with a strong performance from our Product Services team, we had a net profit after tax of $162 million for the quarter, and a full year NPAT of $493 million, our highest ever. After the first full calendar year in operation, as a new and expanded trading team, Product Services generated a net accounting profit of $18 million in Q4. This is after adjusting for G&A and tax provisions from the earlier announced $27 million quarterly profits. We're also scheduled to return $30 million to the shareholders in Q2 this year following a substantial cash generation during 2023. Given the strong quarter for our company, our Board has declared a dividend of $0.90 per share, which brings our year-to-date dividend per share to $3.46, representing 98% payout of our annual earnings and an annualized dividend yield of 28%. The quarter was eventful also in other fronts. We are moving forward with our dual listing in New York, which likely will take place in second quarter this year on the New…

Samantha Xu

Analyst

Thank you, Kristian. And good morning, good afternoon to everyone. Let me continue to add some colour to Product Services' performance. The net asset value of Product Services increased by, US$18 million to US$62 million at the end of December. The increase comes from the positive gross profit after netting off other expenses. In Q4, Product Services generated a gross profit of US$32 million which includes US$50 million of unrealized cargo and derivatives gains, offset by a US$17 million realized loss during the quarter. The loss includes the depreciation from Product Services' lease-in vessels. Other expenses of US$14 million largely comprise of G&A expenses, including bonus provision, and additional income tax provisions. The reported net profit does not include the unrealized mark-to-market valuation of physical shipping position which was excluded from the accounting result. Our internal valuation of these TC-in contracts at the end of December was US$ 84 million. This positive value reflects the continued strong development in the 12-month forward freight market for VLGCs, which is the period we use to evaluate freight positions in Product Services. Due to the increased volatility in the LPG product and freight market that in Q4 we reported a higher average VAR of US$8 million, on a well-balanced trading book, including cargoes, shipping and derivatives. We continue to see good collaboration and synergy between Product Services and our Shipping business through improved information flow, optionalities and enlarged footprint. Focusing on the profit; Product Services is also progressing in expanding the physical presence in key markets, as we aim to broaden the platform and trading portfolio. Please go to next slide please. So, moving to the financial highlights. In Q4, we reported a net profit after-tax of US$162 million on a consolidated basis. This includes $16 million in profit from BW LPG India…

Lisa Lim

Operator

Thank you, Samantha. We will open the floor for questions now. [Operator Instructions]

A - Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

Yeah. So we have one written question here from Johanna Nero [ph] asking if you could elaborate on how increased ammonia new buildings may bring uncertainties to the VLGC market? Kristian Sørensen: Yes. Thank you for the question. Ammonia has for several decades already been carried onboard LPG vessels. And then today it's the mid-sized LPG vessels which are the workhorses of the ammonia market. And this new VLAC new buildings are essentially VLGCs which are specced up and also have strengthened the tank structure to carry up to 98% ammonia. But they can also shift their trade into LPG, if the ammonia trade is not as lucrative as -- or attractive as they expect, so these ships can in theory also trade LPG.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

We have a question. Jørgen Lian [ph]. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Yes. Hello, Kristian and Samantha. This is Jørgen from DNB Markets. And I just wanted to ask if there can be -- can we have a discussion and some more flavor on the considerations around the payout ratio this quarter on the dividend versus the EPS number you reported? Kristian Sørensen: Yeah, sure Jørgen. First of all, we do of course not like to disappoint the market, but the fact is that we have a dividend policy which aims for an annual payout ratio of 75% of our shipping segment's NPAT, if the net leverage is between 20% and 30% and 100% if it's below 20% net leverage. And we have a net leverage of 21%. And consequently, the Board decided to pay out 98% of NPAT for the year, which generates a dividend yield of 28%, so it's in accordance with our dividend policy where we have an aim for annual payout ratio.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. And secondly, if I may this -- the IFRS effects that you see with the very volatile markets. Do you have any flavor on how that looks to be shaping up into sort of next quarter considering the guidance and what you've seen so far?

Samantha Xu

Analyst

Yes. Sure Jørgen. From IFRS 15 impact perspective, first of all, let's put it that way. It's very difficult to anticipate what kind of effect it bring to the quarter has ended because this very much depends on the vessel deployments, the loading and discharge locations as well. And given that we have had let me say both negative adjustment in the previous quarter and Q4, we see that the negative impact should be less, so if not a reversal in this quarter. But as you can appreciate, I'm sure that from your side you know very well as well it's really hard to model this kind of impact out.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

Then we'll move to the next question here from Axel Styrman [ph]. Kristian, you mentioned the risk that VLEC newbuilds potentially may trade in LPG, but you then referred to the ammonia trade. I assume you meant VLAC newbuilds? Kristian Sørensen: Yeah, you're right. Actually, it's my English which is a bit broken so it's VLACs ammonia carriers, not the ethane carriers.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

We have a question here from Desmond Burmil [ph]. When you do -- when do you expect environmental regulations concerning the slower ship speeds to materialize? Kristian Sørensen: Well, the world fleet of VLGCs have already reduced speed somehow on some of the vessels, so you can see for instance our fleet trading in and out of India is down to 14 knots these days. So we already now see the impact of slower speeds, and so I would say that this is already ongoing.

Lisa Lim

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Once again we have a question from the channel.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Yeah, a question from [indiscernible]. What is your estimate of negative ton-mile demand impact for full year 2024 due to increased Panama Canal transits? Kristian Sørensen: So negative ton-mile demand, you can say that if you turn it the other way around if the ships are sailing from the US via South Africa towards the Far East, it's a 50% -- approximately 50% longer voyage on a round voyage. So I think that is kind of the rule of thumb that you can have. So it's depending on where you discharge in Asia, of course, but if you go all the way to Japan via South Africa back and forth, it's about 50% longer distance; and then more down to 45% if you go to the more western parts of Asia.

Lisa Lim

Operator

And we have a question here from Nick Liname [ph]. You had some tax expense in the fourth quarter of 2023. Can you explain what drove this?

Samantha Xu

Analyst

Nick, this is Samantha. I think you're referring to the tax we have disclosed for product services. That does stands out in Q4. Maybe just a little bit. The way we accrue tax is on a quarterly basis. And at the year-end, we would trued up the tax provision for the year. So that is basically a year -- the full year impact of the tax reflected in Q4 as we -- you can see that we generated a positive profit for product services. So from a tax percentage and tax rate perspective, we have different tax rates in where the business was conducted, respectively in Singapore and Spain. So it's under different tax scheme as well. So the effective tax rate, it's very difficult to calculate until at the year-end. So I will be happy to get back to you if you're interested after I have done some fact finding for 2023.

Lisa Lim

Operator

Then we have a question from [indiscernible]. What is your view on demand from China? What is the latest on PDH utilization? Kristian Sørensen: Well, our view on the demand from China is that, of course, we recognize that the Chinese economy is on a slower pace than what we let's say have been used to over the last years. The imports especially last year was very, very high despite of this, because, you know, that they have a political goal to capture more of the petrochemical market. And we can see that the PDH demand is increasing, but it's not like a linear increase going straight up. So for the moment, you asked also about the PDH rate, utilization rate I believe, which I don't have the latest but it's been down to 60% 70% we have seen. So there is definitely upside potential, but I don't have the latest number in front of me just now, so I need to get back to you on that. But all in all, very positive for the increase of LPG imports to China despite the economic challenges that they have.

Lisa Lim

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

We have one more question from Nick Linnane here. How many VLAC orders do you see in the order book? Kristian Sørensen: Well, the vessels on order with ammonia lifting capacity is 73, as far as I can see from my list here. So, these are both VLGCs with ammonia lifting capacity, and then there are these VLACs, which have a strengthened tank structure and load more and more. And in combination it's 73 in total in our list.

Lisa Lim

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We have one question coming in.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

We have one question from Desmond Burmil [ph]. Do you plan on repurchasing any more shares? Kristian Sørensen: Samantha, will you reply on this?

Samantha Xu

Analyst

Yes. Sure. As you know that we had a share repurchase program announced in May 2023, and we have already repurchased back US$ 13 million worth of share and the remaining US$ 37 million to go. And prior to that, we also had a US$ 15 million repurchase program in 2022, which we have finalized. We will continue to evaluate and then -- and get back to the investors.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

We have another question here from Nick Linnane. What do you think is current US LPG export capacity? Kristian Sørensen: Well, we can see that in the US Gulf, they have increased the export capacity by removing the restrictions on nighttime berthing on Targa and Enterprise terminals, so they have increased that up to -- we count close to 100 liftings in the Gulf Coast region per months -- on a regular months only. And then in addition you have the US East Coast, where there is another 10% and -- or not 10% but 5% of the US export volumes are currently exported from the US East Coast. And then you have -- on the west coast of Canada and the US, it's another 2 million to 2.5 million tonnes on an annual basis as export capacity. So, what we have seen also is that about -- according to Furness, the ship broker it's about 6.5 million tonnes which are exported on mid-sized vessels which in theory can be -- which are occupying the berths. So, if you exchange them with VLGCs in theory, you can probably increase the VLGC lifting capacity out of the States even more. So, -- but we do see that then the American terminals are very efficient if they need to export more than what we anticipate. For instance and what we have seen now in February is higher than what we expected. And then so about 100 berthings per calendar month in the U.S. Gulf Coast alone is what we see approximately.

Lisa Lim

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Kristian Sørensen: Okay that rounds off our quarterly earnings presentation so thank you everyone. And then see you next quarter

Lisa Lim

Operator

We have come to the end of today's presentation. Thank you for attending BW LPG's fourth quarter financial results presentation. More information on BW LPG and BW Product Services are available at bwlpg.com and bwproductservices.com respectively. Have a good day and a good night.