Earnings Labs

BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT)

Q3 2023 Earnings Call· Wed, Nov 1, 2023

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to BWX Technologies Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the company’s prepared remarks we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. I would now like to turn the call over to our host, Chase Jacobson with BWXT's, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Chase Jacobson

Management

Thank you Sheryl. Good evening and welcome to today's call. Joining me are Rex Geveden, President and CEO; and Robb LeMasters, Senior Vice President and CFO. On today’s call, we will reference the third quarter 2023 earnings presentation that is available on the Investors section of the BWXT website. We will also discuss certain matters that constitute forward-looking statements. These statements involve risks and uncertainties, including those described in the safe harbor provision found in the investor materials and the company's SEC filings. We will frequently discuss non-GAAP financial measures, which are reconciled to GAAP measures in the appendix of the earnings presentation that can be found on the Investors section of the BWXT website. I would now like to turn the call over to Rex.

Rex Geveden

Management

Thank you Chase, and good evening to everyone. This afternoon we reported solid third quarter results that were slightly ahead of our expectations. The quarter was highlighted by a robust 13% organic revenue growth with double-digit revenue growth in both segments. Adjusted EBITDA grew 6% compared to the same quarter last year as higher revenue and government operations, and solid revenue and margin performance in commercial operations were offset by lower margin in our government operations segment and some growth in corporate expense. As we forecasted last quarter, although higher sequentially government operations margins were somewhat compressed by the onboarding of new team members and less favorable product mix, while commercial operations margins benefited from operational improvements and medical profitability. Adjusted earnings per share declined 3% to $0.67 as higher EBITDA was offset by non-operating items. Overall and consistent with what we have experienced throughout 2023 the combination of steady advancements in our core franchises and incremental increases from new growth vectors is producing strong organic top line growth even in these challenging and unpredictable economic times coupled with our focus on operational excellence and functional continuous improvement, we expect to produce good financial performance and strong cash flow throughout the remainder of 2023 and 2024. Based on our year-to-date performance and our expectations for the fourth quarter, we are narrowing our 2023 adjusted earnings per share guidance to $2.90 to $2.95, the midpoint of which is slightly higher than where we started the year. Our guidance assumes approximately 8% year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth. And as Rob will detail in his remarks, we are pleased to have a similarly positive outlook for 2024, anchored again by solid organic growth at the top and bottom line. Our preliminary view is that we can grow revenue EBITDA and earnings at a mid-single-digit…

Robb LeMasters

Management

Thanks Rex, and good evening, everyone. I'll start with some total company financial highlights on slide 4 of the earnings presentation. Third quarter revenue was $590 million, up 13% organically on a consolidated basis with double-digit growth in both government and commercial operations. Adjusted EBITDA was $107 million, up 6% year-over-year as higher revenue was complemented by improved margins in commercial operations, but partially offset by lower margins in government operations, and higher corporate EBITDA spend driven by some seasonally stronger health care costs. We still see this corporate EBITDA line coming in at the upper end of the $10 million to $15 million range with fourth quarter coming in more like the level we saw in the second quarter this year. Looking into 2024 we expect corporate EBITDA expense to flatten out in the mid-teens range and only grow at inflationary rates thereafter. I will note that despite seasonally lower revenue and the higher corporate expense, adjusted EBITDA was essentially flat compared to second quarter of 2023, reflecting solid underlying performance in our government business, better margins in commercial power and improved profitability in medical. Adjusted earnings per share was $0.67 compared to $0.69 in the prior year quarter. As you can see in the EPS bridge on slide 5 as has been the case throughout the year, the year-over-year decline was due to non-operational items including lower pension income and higher interest expense. Our adjusted effective tax rate was 22.6% in the quarter, mainly due to the adjustment of certain stock compensation expenses that had a disproportionate impact on the quarter. Nonetheless, we still expect a full year tax rate of approximately 24%, meaning the fourth quarter rate will likely bit a tad higher than the full year rate. Despite modestly lower net income, free cash flow improved…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Peter Arment with Baird. Your line is now open.

Peter Arment

Analyst

Rex, it sounds like you've done a great job on all the hiring and at least from a gross perspective and dealing with some of the attrition. But is that going to linger into next year just thinking about the margins at your government operations?

Rex Geveden

Management

Yes. Thanks Peter. Hey, good evening. Yes, I'd say to add a little color to that discussion on hiring. We're doing -- I think we're doing quite well with talent acquisition. I'd say the other side of the equation that we haven't talked as much about is that we're sort of reducing the leakage rate with the improvement in attrition, which has markedly improved. We're getting back to that range of mid-single-digit attrition when you back out retirements and nonvoluntary separations. So the combination of those two things is pretty powerful for the business Peter. I would say that in a business like ours which is growing at the rate our business is growing we're constantly onboarding and hiring and training new people. So, there's a bit of a bit of drag related to the growth itself. And so I think we'll see that linger for a period of time. You want to add to that Rob.

Robb LeMasters

Management

Yes. Yes. Just to give you a couple of numbers up on where we stand. Third quarter was excellent. I think last quarter we talked about how we just saw the building momentum month-upon-month. As we look at the third quarter from a hiring standpoint on the sort of growth side we're up almost 30% versus the levels that we brought in in Q2. So, we are still onboarding quite a bit. Rex talked a little bit about the attrition. That number has actually gone back to a sort of more normalized level of mid-single-digits. So, we're really seeing good performance there. So, we both want to bring in new employees and we want to retain them longer. And also just the overall onboarding, I think you saw in our margin performance just sequentially, we still have an issue of sort of utilization, but our efficiency has really been quite strong. On a per hour basis, if you will we're really matching what the customer is asking for. So, it's taking a little bit of a drag on utilization but our efficiency is quite strong. So, I'm pretty proud of that from the team.

Peter Arment

Analyst

I appreciate those details. And just and then on the on your comments on the 2024, I think we'd all kind of expected what you kind of just laid out regarding government -- the cadence coming down on the Ford and then ultimately then eventually Columbia would begin to offset that. Do we start to see that in 2025 where the Columbia becomes more of a bigger part of the mix? Or how do we think about that because we know, the schedule really ramps up in the second half of the decade?

Robb LeMasters

Management

Yes. I think of both -- I mean our goal has always been, I think we're actually kind of doing slightly better than, what I thought, right? We're kind of filling in a little bit of the overall shipbuilding, both the carrier law and then the Columbia offset. We're having strength around the microreactor franchise in the AC division as well as some of the special materials businesses. We have a strong win on the HEU Metal front. And so that's providing a little bit of tailwind to fill in both in 2024 and 2025. So probably too early, to look all the way out to 2025, but I'm hoping that we could surprise you guys to the upside just like we did I think in 2024, we're now seeing a little bit of growth. And Ed [ph] you asked me a year or two ago, I'm not sure what has seen that. Glad to fill that in. I'd also say that the carrier [indiscernible] just in general it's not like it just falls out on day one of 2024. It's actually kind of through the year, decelerating if you will. And so there is a little bit of a half year impact, that we'll get a full year impact in 2025 if you will. So, that's something we have to contend with but leave it to us we'll figure out 2025 here soon.

Peter Arment

Analyst

I appreciate that color, Rob. And then just one last one. On the – Rex, just it sounds like you've had a lot of back and forth with the FDA. It still sounds like, you're think tracking for commercialization in 2024, any color on you originally planned on a priority review, what that time line looks like today when you think about just your exchanges that you've had with the FDA.

Rex Geveden

Management

Yes, I'd say no, change in our outlook there at all, Peter. So we expect to be commercial sometime in 2024. And our -- the work that we've done in radiating the material at Darlington was promising and so no change on the outlook there. It looks good for us.

Robb LeMasters

Management

Peter, as we guided for 2024, I think we've always said, that's a very small contribution to the tech business. So we hope to get commercial, for really that will be pretty low scale. So our guidance if you will, does not expect full year ramp -- a full year of that product or anything like that. So we've been conservative there. We'll see how we go.

Peter Arment

Analyst

Appreciate the details. Nice result.

Robb LeMasters

Management

Thanks, Peter.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Ciarmoli with Truist Securities. You may now go ahead.

Michael Ciarmoli

Analyst · Truist Securities. You may now go ahead.

Hey, good evening, gentlemen. Nice results. Thanks for taking my question here. Maybe Rob just to actually stay exactly on that line or that topic that Peter was on. On the -- I guess the assumptions for next year with Tc-99. So not really in the full year guidance, but if you are going to commercialize can we expect maybe a little bit more pronounced impact to EBITDA margins if you do get commercialization and get better overhead absorption there and you start having some actual product sales? Just trying to think about how that might impact the EBITDA margins next year.

Robb LeMasters

Management

Yeah. I think overall for the commercial division we do see tailwinds for margin overall for the year. I wouldn't attribute much of that to the tech business, because even if we get a small bit right that's a ramping product line if you will. So frankly, we're going to kind of bring that in at a lower margin, right? Because we're going to be just testing supply is getting it out there and probably not working super efficiently on kind of the first couple of batches if we even have that kind of in 2024. So I wouldn't say that's a huge driver. I think what is the big driver is just a generally larger bit of the medical revenue. So we've talked about the fact that, we just put up another quarter of excellent growth. Last quarter we said, it was a little bit above 20%, now we're saying this quarter is 30%. I think, as we look at next year we can continue that underlying trend of that base business. And then the way I'm thinking about it is okay that's the underlying business. And now therapeutics kind of get layered on top of that and maybe a little of tax into 2024 that all should actually accelerate the growth rate from that 30% as we look out to next year.

Michael Ciarmoli

Analyst · Truist Securities. You may now go ahead.

Okay. Okay. And then was -- I know you recently broke even at the EBITDA level in medical. Were you EBITDA positive for the full quarter?

Robb LeMasters

Management

We were. We do model of that business out on a quarterly basis. We're not going to be guiding that. But yes from this point forward I see that business is making money at the EBITDA level and then we put out that targets, we still stand by that $200 million and $75 million of EBITDA. So when we look out a couple of years the line to get there is still staggered but we'll get.

Michael Ciarmoli

Analyst · Truist Securities. You may now go ahead.

Got it. Perfect. And then Rex, I got on a few minutes late. I may have missed this. Just on AUKUS and what's been going on with the supplemental support for the industrial base? I mean, I know maybe more over the summer you guys weren't as overly optimistic on that being a big growth driver. But it would seem like if Virginia class is going to get produced and delivered to Australia in 2032. I mean, it would have to start flowing through your facilities pretty early here. I mean what's the latest thinking on kind of AUKUS?

Rex Geveden

Management

Yeah. I think Michael that's shaping up a little better than maybe we had had been speaking about it earlier. It looks to us like based on the $3 billion investment from Australia into the US submarine industrial base. And then obviously there's another $3 billion in the supplemental that came from the White House over to Congress. It looks like the industrial base and the decision-makers are preparing for incremental demand here. And that's certainly the way it's being discussed. And so we're certainly hopeful that it's incremental. So that 3% to 5% would be layered in on top of our normal Virginia production and the industrial base will need to produce let's call it 2.3 submarines a year. We also by the way anticipate having content although we can't provide any details here but we do expect to have content on the SSN Augus boat that would go to both the UK and Australia. So there's a tail on that for us that's -- it's certainly well out into the future. But that's all shaping up to be incremental demand and that's good for our business clearly.

Michael Ciarmoli

Analyst · Truist Securities. You may now go ahead.

Got it. Would you have to – would that require any -- ?

Rex Geveden

Management

Michael you cut out on us. So I think you were asking -- I think Michael you were asking whether or not it would require incremental CapEx. I guess it depends on the acquisition tempo for one thing. But I would say that of that $6 billion that I alluded to earlier from both US and Australia appropriation sources, some of that will come into the industrial. I mean all of that will come into the industrial base we'd expect to get some of that potentially. And so we'll have to see where the capital needs to lay out, but I think it's shaping up nicely for us.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Deuschle with Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.

Scott Deuschle

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.

Hi. Good afternoon.

Rex Geveden

Management

Hi, Scott.

Robb LeMasters

Management

Hi, Scott.

Scott Deuschle

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.

Robb, it looks like the EACs got a lot better this quarter at least relative to the first half. So maybe you could just talk about if there are any non-recurring elements that drove that or if that was just broad-based performance.

Robb LeMasters

Management

Yes. No that was in our government segment. In general, we've been grinding through as we've had the sort of labor inefficiencies relative to probably how we sold. We had inflation headwinds. We had all frankly all of that in the past couple of years. And you're exactly right in the third quarter we did have better performance and so we saw better EACs. And I think all the efforts that we have and now that we've sort of gotten better at onboarding I see the prospects for continued positive EACs going forward.

Scott Deuschle

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.

Okay. Great. And then Robb you talked a bit about in the prepared remarks there, but maybe you can just level set us on where you're at in the missile tube recovery negotiations? How much you expect to recover in the confidence center you have in getting that here in the fourth quarter?

Robb LeMasters

Management

Yes. I think the communications are quite good. We're obviously negotiating with our customer and they have to interact with the Navy. I think those discussions are quite good. I think we've made a good case. And so we have not actually gotten to a number yet which is why we're trying to guide with all that in mind for the fourth quarter. I think we've talked about in the past that we had a pretty chunky negative item last year. So we're hoping to recover that and then some. So that's the way we're thinking. We're not really at liberty yet because we haven't actually settled on a true number at this point. But the communication is great. And, yes, we're looking forward to getting that behind us in the fourth quarter.

Scott Deuschle

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.

Okay. And then last question just an accounting question. The depreciation for the technetium-99 product line does that kick in on a straight-line basis once you get the FDA approval? And if you're slow to ramp up sales then you take the depreciation hit is there a risk to EBIT margins at commercial operations obviously EBITDA won't be affected. Just trying to think about the EBIT margin impact and what it means for EPS if that treatment gets.

Robb LeMasters

Management

Yes, it's a good question. I mean, in general really it's more on your -- when you put assets into commercial use if you will -- so it's not necessary oh there's the FDA. So that's the first trigger you should be thinking about. The second is it's not all in one dose. So there's different assets that get deployed whether it be the target delivery system versus the assets that are at the facility. So it's not all at once but pretty close. So there is some layering in. But you're right. As we go to market, we want to be able to really service the market in a quick manner that's a little bit what I alluded to with one of the questions earlier. It's not like we're going to have a full run rate of revenue that is not going to be an immediately super profitable product. It's going to take us a quarter or two to kind of build into the profitability. And when I mean profitable, I mean, EBIT, which includes that depreciation sort of overhang that's going to be a high fixed cost to work through. So we've always contemplated that you recall the pace that we had in the materials at Investor Day that contemplated that sort of headwind to D&A that we had to sort of grind through from the revenue to ultimately get it to be as profitable as we hope to be.

Scott Deuschle

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.

Okay. Thank you.

Robb LeMasters

Management

Sure.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ron Epstein with Bank of America. Ron, your line is now open.

Ron Epstein

Analyst · Bank of America. Ron, your line is now open.

Hey, good afternoon folks. Just a couple of quick ones. On the last quarter of the year the way things are lining up it seems like it would be the best quarter ever for the company. What gives you confidence about that? And is there any one single thing that's driving that? Like what can we as outsiders keep an eye on to just get a sense that that's going to play out?

Rex Geveden

Management

Hey, Ron, it's -- it would not be a record quarter at the midpoint of the guidance. We've delivered quarters like that before. I think last year it was $0.95. And so two years ago $0.95 last year was 93%. So it's in the range of what we delivered in the fourth quarter. We true up the TSG contracts. That comes through obviously in a growing business like ours particularly at these rates the fourth quarter tends to be the strongest quarter in the year. So we've got reasonable confidence we can deliver that. And we've got a track record of having done so.

Ron Epstein

Analyst · Bank of America. Ron, your line is now open.

Got it. Got it. And then just maybe a bigger picture question on just submarine demand a bit large. Are you getting any signals from the Navy of Virginia-class rates moving at all? I mean there's been supposedly there's been investments in the industrial base. And the Navy keeps talking about we want three Virginia class and everybody is struggling to get out to right like 1.7, 1.6. Are you seeing any movement upward there. I mean how should we think about Virginia class down the road? I mean will they ever get to 3? Is that just sort of a dreaming number? I mean how should we think about it?

Rex Geveden

Management

Well, I think the right way to think about it is that the steady-state production rate should settle out at two. And I think that it's fair to say, the constraint there is the shipyards and certainly not our production capacity. We're kind of producing to the shipbuilding schedule at present rates. And so the shipyards have to get to that rate. And if you layer ocean on top of that people are talking about sort of 2.3 Virginias a year coming out of the shipyards. I don't think there's a production rate of three that's anticipated but blending those Australian ships and get to 2.3. And I think, clearly, the investment from the Congress and from the Australians is intended to support that. And so it's my expectation that the industrial base will respond appropriately.

Ron Epstein

Analyst · Bank of America. Ron, your line is now open.

And what's your sense Rex on -- I mean, in terms of labor and infrastructure but the shipyards are going to actually need to get there? I mean is that something that can happen in a couple of years? I mean how hard is that to actually do to get there?

Rex Geveden

Management

Yes, I certainly, won't speak on behalf of the shipyards there. I just -- I can speak to our own experience on that, which is labor has been hard to come by and we've really had to double down to try to get it. That said I believe in capital markets, free markets that the supply chain tends to organize around the demand signal, so I'm hopeful that a little self-correct here in the next over the next few years.

Ron Epstein

Analyst · Bank of America. Ron, your line is now open.

Yes. Got it. All right. Thank you very much.

Rex Geveden

Management

Sure.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Pete Skibitski from Alembic -- I'm sorry I apologize, Alembic Global. Your line is open, Pete.

Pete Skibitski

Analyst

Hey, good evening guys. Nice quarter. I just want to follow-up on Scott's question on commercial EBIT margins in 2024. You're expecting them up RECONNECT -- just my recollection is that you were expecting when Tech 99 does get FDA approval I think you quantified it to be $20 million of incremental D&A. RECONNECT Are you still assuming that in those EBIT margins being up in 2024 you're just offsetting it? Or could you just clarify?

Robb LeMasters

Management

No. As I mentioned, D&A effectively come when you’re commercial. So it's going to match the sales if you will. And so we've talked about how that is a very small delivery. The way I would think about it is, that model year 2024 without sales, without earnings and without D&A tied to that specific product in 2024. If we get lucky and pull it forward, I think it will be relatively neutral to EBIT if you will. I don't think it's going to scrub your model if we get a sliver of that in 2024. That's the way I would think about it.

Pete Skibitski

Analyst

Okay. Okay. So the incremental of D&A will be more of 2025 of that.

Robb LeMasters

Management

That's right. And it will come with a full -- hopefully a full year of revenue right? So then you're able to like absorb all that fixed cost. But you're right in terms of the magnitude of the D&A that was the number we gave out. So I would model in a full year, which comes with all the goodness around a fully built-out product line. Hopefully, maybe not full in 2025 right? We've always promised that in the 2025 plus time zone but we'll see how it goes.

Pete Skibitski

Analyst

Got it. Okay. And then maybe one for Rex. Rex on the Canadian financing for Romania, usually that's a long pole in the tent right once the financing is kind of set. Do you guys have any sense of timing for when you might sign a contract for that project? Is it still later in the decade? Or is that kind of being pulled forward?

Rex Geveden

Management

Yes. I don't have a lot of clarity on that one Pete. I would say certainly later decade.

Pete Skibitski

Analyst

Okay. Okay, got it. All right. Thanks guys,

Rex Geveden

Management

Yes. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bob Labick with CJS Securities. Bob, your line is open.

Bob Labick

Analyst · CJS Securities. Bob, your line is open.

Thanks. Good afternoon. I wanted to ask -- sorry if I missed this, but can you give us an update on the time line and expectations for the Hanford Tank program. I read somewhere recently that bids have been resubmitted and things like that. How are you treating that in your 2024 outlook as well?

Rex Geveden

Management

Yes. Hey Bob. I'll give some details on that. I think you certainly know that we've been through court actions on that in the court. The appellate court basically sent the matter back to DOE for corrective action. The DOE did conduct its corrective action and as the original proposals to resubmit, we have resubmitted that proposal. In the meantime, the competitors have issued a protest that's gone through the GAO. So there's a lot of legal churn here, and that's all I'll say about that. And from a standpoint of how it might impact us financially, I don't think we're expecting any transition on that contract until about -- at least throughout the middle of next year.

Robb LeMasters

Management

Yes. We're -- how we're looking at 2024 in terms of that guidance the same way we talk about 2023, right? There's a bucket of good things that can happen on bad things and those sort of chunky wins and we probability weight those, we time adjust all those. And frankly, just -- we try to be conservative on all those factors. So in 2023, as you know, drag will push a little later for us out hamper stuff sell out, and we're still obviously going to hit the guidance or that's our plan. So we try to put all that into the blender and guide accordingly. So I think we've learned our lessons on the TSG front that these things just take longer. So we contemplated that mid-single-digits. We factored that in that when we're going to ramp and how that margin is going to work.

Bob Labick

Analyst · CJS Securities. Bob, your line is open.

Got it. Okay. Great. That makes a lot of sense. And then obviously, you discussed Moly, the FDA approval process for Tech99. You touched on actinium sales and non-Moly sales up in medical up 30%, 25%, 30%. Can you -- maybe you could just go a little one level deeper and talk about the key drivers there and any opportunity set from the Bayer Actinium and all that kind of stuff please?

Rex Geveden

Management

Yes, sure, Bob. We've got growth showing up across the board in our medical portfolio. As you know, we have diagnostic products and also therapeutic products. And so there's strong – very strong demand for germanium. We're seeing real growth there. Strontium is growing. TheraSphere continues to grow at an impressive compounded rate. Actinium 225 is showing up in our numbers a little bit because we're supporting clinical trials with our own medical device, our own generator, which produces a non-carrier added Actinium and it's the only such generator on the market. And then we're anticipating feathering in some lutetium-177 sales for next year. So – and there are underlying things to iodine and other products that we have. And so yes, the core business is quite strong. I think it's a bit of an underappreciated asset in BWXT and we see increasing demand in virtually every product line that we have.

Bob Labick

Analyst · CJS Securities. Bob, your line is open.

Okay. That sounds super. Thanks.

Rex Geveden

Management

You’re welcome.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Strauss with Barclays. David, your line is open.

David Strauss

Analyst · Barclays. David, your line is open.

Great. Thanks, good evening.

Rex Geveden

Management

Hi, David.

David Strauss

Analyst · Barclays. David, your line is open.

Hey. So Rob, Q4 free cash flow working capital reversal to get to around $200 million. If you could just walk through how you get there? And then for 2024, I don't know how I should interpret the comment of improved working capital. Does that mean it's less of a drag? Or does it mean positive contributor to cash flow because I know you're seeing free cash flow growth above mid-single-digit EBITDA growth but I would have thought with kind of flattish CapEx that we could see some pretty significant free cash flow growth next year? Thanks.

Robb LeMasters

Management

Sure. Yes. Thanks for the question, Dave. Yes. So the way that we're thinking, we always have very significant Q4, if you just look back the past couple of years, as a percentage of our free cash flow is always meaningful and this year in Q4, if you just think about where we stand for the year, we're at about $40 million of year-to-date free cash flow Therefore in order to hit obviously the $200 million bogey, we've got to have $150 million plus. And the way that we're thinking about it is we're going to have a big fourth quarter in terms of profit just in general, so you start with that. And if you just think about how the cash flow statement works, right you have net income, you have D&A, you have stock comp and JV income, that gets you almost $125 million, if you just look at what we've already guided that's sort of your starting point for operating cash flow drivers. And then you need to work higher. We always have a pretty big retainage that generally is around $25 million. You have accounts receivable, you have a SIP release. All of that gets you comfortably over $20 million of operating cash flow for the fourth quarter and then you obviously back off CapEx. So we have a very clear path. We know the items that are coming in. And so that's how we're thinking about fourth quarter. You're right. First of all it's pretty early to know where we stand for 2024 for free cash flow. And there's always things that wash between fourth quarter of 2023. And first quarter 2024. So it's hard to give a growth rate when you don't know what your base is for 2023, we were using $200 million obviously, just in general but whether it's 195 or 205 matters a little bit. We do see exactly what you said, which is a positive growth of working capital next year. for 2024. So we're going to have the rate of the EBITDA that will kick in, that will help free cash flow to grow in line with that. Then we have the steam generator contract that we've talked about in the end that should free up some working capital and should be a positive. So we see all the trends pointing in the right direction. I'm sure you've looked in the quarter, if you look at the balance sheet you'll see that for the third quarter cash conversion cycle go down for the first time in a couple of quarters meaning less days. So we're starting to see real positive. That number came down by two days. And I think next year you're going to see some real positive developments there in 2024.

David Strauss

Analyst · Barclays. David, your line is open.

Okay. So just -- sorry just maybe, I'm not getting in here. Just in terms of working capital as we see it on the cash flow statement in 2024, do you think that's a positive contributor to cash or not?

Robb LeMasters

Management

That's right. I do see the working capital items should be a positive to operating cash flow.

David Strauss

Analyst · Barclays. David, your line is open.

Okay. All right. Thanks for the clarification.

Robb LeMasters

Management

Sure.

Operator

Operator

Your final question is from Tate Sullivan from Maxim Group. Tate, your line is open.

Tate Sullivan

Analyst

Hi thank you. Rex, it sounds like you're quite positive on the fuel down blending and or what you call the government specialty materials opportunities. Is that a matter of more volume in that -- various businesses there? And can you comment on, if higher uranium prices have any derivative positive or negative impact to you at all, please? Thank you.

Rex Geveden

Management

Yeah. Sure Tate. Thanks for the question. Yeah. I mean, first off, we're completely uninfluenced by uranium prices, because the uranium that we process on behalf of the US government comes from stockpile and is government furnished equipment. In fact, it's government's government-owned material all the way through. So you can think of our business as having a tolling arrangement on government material. But the reason I'm bullish on it, Tate is because, for one thing we're uniquely suited to do it. And I mean that in a specific sense we've got a category one, in our seed license and we can handle stockpile material and no other commercial entity can do that. So we're uniquely qualified to do it. And we're bullish, because it's a, it's a good business. It has a long tail on it. Our competitive position is appropriate there. But then, I think there might be more to come. The NNSA, National Nuclear Security Administration has published a request for information about enrichment for national security purposes. But there will come a point when we've got to replenish the stockpile based on demand from naval nuclear propulsion and other things. And that's a special need that will require the kind of licenses and credentials and experiential qualifications that we possess. And so enrichment is a possible thing out there in the future. Certainly, there's some low-level activity in our business right now around isotope production for National Security. And if you want to think more broadly around that strategic thesis think about whether or not we could expand into non-nuclear special materials that involve electrochemistry or chemicals or specialty metals. And so I think there's a whole world of special case materials out there that require unique processing, that require unique materials handling and accountability capabilities that we uniquely possess. And so, it's a really interesting line of business that we hope to expand in the future.

Tate Sullivan

Analyst

Okay. Thank you Rex.

Rex Geveden

Management

You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

I would now like to turn the call back over to Chase Jacobson, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Chase Jacobson

Management

Thank you everybody for joining us today. We appreciate your time and your questions and your interest in BWXT. We look forward to seeing and speaking with many of you at upcoming investor events. And if you have any further questions, you can reach out to us at investors.bwxt.com. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.