Hamilton E. James
Analyst · Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed
Okay, Mike. So in – the markets now is very healthy. It's in a healthy moment for real estate. We don't think there is a bubble and we don't see the amount of new building that presage is a downturn. But at the same time, economic growth may not be spectacular, but it's steady and population growth chugs along at 0.8% and obsolescence and commercial real estate chugs along at 0.4% and the combination of economic growth, obsolescence population growth and not a lot of new building means that occupancies continue to rise. And when occupancies rise, rents rise. When you get those two things with a basically a fixed cost asset, you get very healthy operating income. So that's the general picture in the United States where we could go around the world if you want, but I assume your question is primarily U.S.-based. Now, there are certain segments and certain markets where the pictures a little different based on the regional thing. In Houston, given what has happened to energy, obviously, office market is a little softer. In high-end residential pretty much all over the world, condos and things like that, the market is soft. Fortunately, we don't do those. And you have, I think, New York City we have got near record building but at the same time, the city is doing very well and the market is in a stable position. As rates rise, obviously, cap rates will sneak up but the drop in rates was not fully passed through on cap rates. In other words, a spread over base rates came up. So as rates rise, some of that will be absorbed we think by a return to more normal spreads. And we are not really in the business of betting on cap rates staying where they are. Usually, we buy something and we expect on exit cap rates to be higher anyway. That's what we underwrite to. So that's our premise and we think that as long as the environment stays healthy, it doesn't have to be hot by any means. It just has to stay healthy the way it is today then rising rates are what we are expecting and we're going to get our returns. And again, we make our money by – particularly in the BREP fund by buying un-stabilized assets where there is value improvement, improving those assets, converting it into core real estate which has a fundamentally different lower cap rate than what we pay and being able to create value that way.