Allan P. Merrill
Management
So for those who aren't as familiar with our mortgage choice program, we have the benefit of having a lot of different lenders competing to earn our customers' business. And that gives us a chance to hear and see what different people are doing. A couple of just interesting tidbits, our full year FHA and VA business was only 1/3 of our total. Given that we're prominently a first-time homebuyer builder, that's a surprising outcome. And what it reflects, I think, is you are seeing a lot of lenders, particularly smaller- and medium-sized lenders, getting a bit more aggressive in underwriting in the conventional product category. It's also, and this is important, it's also a function of a reduction in FHA loan limits that have totally hammered some important markets. It had a huge effect in Vegas, a huge effect in Phoenix, a big effect in California in certain submarkets. So I think that's also part of the reason that FHA number is down a little bit. But what I sort of read through there, Alan, is that we are definitely seeing a call to the animal spirits. We definitely see a little bit more intention on the part of the lenders to write primary purchase money mortgage financing, which is good. Now I think it's incremental. I think it's modest. Every little bit helps. And because of what I'm about to say, we're assuming that just only incrementally gets better. Now there are 2 big things that have happened in the last, call it, 60 days. Clearly, FHFA and the administration have said some things that would be very favorable as it relates to down payments and potentially loan limits to open the credit box. And absolutely, I'm in favor. I think that should happen. I think, in fact, the arbitrary setting of price caps essentially with the FHA loan limit has been particularly disadvantageous to first-time buyers. I think it's done exactly the opposite of what both the administration and the regulatory authorities really should have been doing. But the flip side, the second thing that happened, is we had a regime change in the Senate. And as a result of that, I am less optimistic about legislative changes that are going to do things that open the credit box. There's a great struggle right now between this idea the private market will fill in the gaps. But what happens in the meantime? And I expect that there will be a struggle between different camps there. And I think stalemate is the best bet. And as a result, notwithstanding the positive soundbites or potentially some of the more challenging soundbites coming out of the some of the newly elected members of Congress, I think that the stalemate and not better, not worse is an appropriate operating assumption. And that's kind of where we are.