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Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH)

Q2 2024 Earnings Call· Wed, May 1, 2024

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Beazer Homes Earnings Conference Call for the second quarter ended March 31, 2024. Today's call is being recorded, and a replay will be available on the company's website later today. In addition, PowerPoint slides intended to accompany this call are available in the Investor Relations section of the company's website at www.beazer.com. At this point, I will turn the call over to David Goldberg, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

David Goldberg

Management

Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to the Beazer Homes conference call discussing our results for the second quarter of fiscal 2024. Before we begin, you should be aware that during this call, we will be making forward-looking statements. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors described in our SEC filings, which may cause actual results to differ materially from our projections. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date the statement is made. We do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. New factors emerge from time to time, and it is simply not possible to predict all such factors. Joining me today is Allan Merrill, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. On our call today, Allan will discuss highlights from our second quarter, the current environment for new home sales, some details on our operational strategy this spring and an update on the progress we're making towards our multiyear goals. I'll then provide details on our second quarter results, our forward expectations, a review of our balance sheet and land spending and then conclude with a review of our book value per share and the framework we employ in considering capital allocation. We will conclude with a wrap-up by Allan. After our prepared remarks, we will take questions in the time remaining. I will now turn the call over to Allan.

Allan Merrill

Management

Thank you, Dave, and thank you for joining us on our call this afternoon. Our team delivered another successful quarter, highlighted by solid sales results and excellent profitability from a growing community count. We also invested for the future and enhanced our capital structure. In more detailed terms, new orders were up 10% from the prior year as we generated a pace just over 3 sales per community per month. This provides us with the backlog to modestly increase our expectations for full year deliveries. EBITDA was over $58 million, driven by slightly better-than-anticipated gross margins and careful management of overheads. We ended the quarter with 145 active communities, up from 136 at the end of December and 121 a year ago. Land spend was nearly $200 million, bringing our total 12-month spending over $740 million. And finally, with our senior note issue and an extension of our revolver, we strengthened our balance sheet, enabling the consideration of a broad range of capital allocation priorities. In addition, we were recognized for both our culture and the energy efficiency of our homes. We also held our annual fundraiser for our national charity partner, Fisher House, which generated nearly $2 million. We remain very confident in the multiyear strength of the housing sector and new home production in particular. Our thesis is anchored by both supply and demand factors. Shortfalls in new home production over the past decade and the lock-in effect of higher mortgage rates both contribute to very tight supply and an economy characterized by low unemployment, wage growth and attractive demographics for potential homebuyers provides clarity on the sources for current and future demand. Last quarter, I outlined our view that over the balance of the fiscal year, our sales pace, and to some extent, the mix and gross…

David Goldberg

Management

Thanks, Allan. For the second quarter of fiscal year 2024, new home orders were 1,299, up 10% compared to the prior year, driven by a 14% increase in average active community count. This translated to a sales pace of 3.1 sales per community per month, slightly above our guidance. We closed 1,044 homes generating homebuilding revenue of $539 million, with an average sales price of about $516,000. Gross margin, excluding amortized interest, impairments and abandonments, was 21.7%. SG&A was 11.5% of total revenue as we continue to prudently invest for our rapidly growing community count. Adjusted EBITDA was $58.8 million. Interest amortized as a percentage of homebuilding revenue was 3.0%. Our GAAP tax expense was $6.7 million for an effective tax rate of 14.7%. Net income was $39.2 million or $1.26 per share. This included an $8.6 million pretax gain or $0.28 per share of EPS from the sale of our investment in Builder Homesite, a technology company specializing in digital marketing for new home communities. This gain contributed to our higher tax rate, but has been excluded from our adjusted EBITDA. Our third quarter expectations contemplate mortgage rates staying about where they are now with the economy remaining generally supportive. In this environment, we expect to sell at least 3 homes per community per month and end the period with approximately 150 communities. We expect to close 1,150 to 1,200 homes, up modestly versus the prior year with an ASP of roughly $505,000. Gross margins in the quarter will likely be about 20% as we work through sales arising from our acceleration to the Ready Series. SG&A as a percentage of total revenue should be approximately flat compared to the prior year. Together, these results should generate adjusted EBITDA above $50 million. Interest amortized as a percentage of homebuilding…

Allan Merrill

Management

Thanks again, Dave. We're pleased with the results we generated in the second quarter. We delivered solid orders and profitability from a growing community count, and we positioned our company for the future with significant growth in our lot pipeline. Perhaps more importantly, we're excited about where we're headed. We have a clear path to reaching each of our multiyear goals. They represent substantial growth in the business, a resilient and flexible balance sheet and an innovative and differentiated product offering. We are confident we can create significant shareholder value from these results. To close, I'd like to acknowledge my colleagues here at Beazer. We have a truly exceptional team, all of whom are committed to creating value for our customers, for our partners, for our shareholders and for each other. I could not be more proud to represent them. With that, I'll turn the call over to the operator to take us into Q&A.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Julio Romero from Sidoti & Company.

Julio Romero

Analyst

Guys, thanks for all the color on the product mix next quarter and the accelerated closeout of Star & Plus Series homes and kind of the strategic rationale behind it. I guess just my question is, how confident are you that the financial impact is only centered around the third quarter? And maybe talk about the scenario if that leaks into the fourth quarter.

Allan Merrill

Management

Yes, I'll jump in first, Julio. And thank you for the question. I think we're very confident that the margins in the Ready Series homes are higher, both on the specs and to-be-built that we've sold than on our Plus and Star, and we're going to run out of Plus and Star homes. That was sort of the point. So confidence into the fourth quarter is very good. Now look, there's an overlay on any of this. If the rate environment is radically different, substantially higher rates over the next 3 or 4 months than what we've experienced, there may be other things going on, but it's not going to be the fault of the product mix.

Julio Romero

Analyst

Very helpful. And then any way to kind of parse out the margin impact between -- for next quarter between greater specs versus the accelerated closeout of the Star & Plus homes?

Allan Merrill

Management

The thing is, it's -- look, we anticipate the question. I appreciate the question. It's a really tough one. It's not an easy thing because a lot of the specs are also Star or Plus. So is the effect because they were specs or is the effect because they were Star or Plus? Our sense is, this more significant impact, more than half, is related to intentionality on our part to get beyond Star and Plus and the minor portion relates to a slightly higher mix of specs in the quarter. But as I've said, the 2 things kind of overlap because getting through Star and Plus, that's what most of our specs work.

Julio Romero

Analyst

Yes. I got you. That makes sense. And -- very good.

Operator

Operator

Next, we'll go to the line of Alex Rygiel from B. Riley.

Alexander Rygiel

Analyst

Nice quarter, gentleman. Can you talk about the cadence of new order activity throughout the quarter and into the month of April?

Allan Merrill

Management

It was -- it built. January wasn't great, February was a little better, and March was better than February. I don't have final April numbers, honestly. We closed the month yesterday. I would say, April was choppy. It was similar to March. It didn't really differentiate itself significantly. Some markets a little better, some markets a little weaker, but we don't release monthly order numbers because I just think, at our size, it's very hard to draw conclusions from a month, but I don't see anything fundamentally different in April than we saw in March.

Alexander Rygiel

Analyst

And in your implied full year closings guidance suggests a very strong step up in the fiscal fourth quarter, or maybe one of the best record. I suspect you've got that visibility in your backlog at this time, but maybe if you can comment on that.

David Goldberg

Management

Yes. Look, Alex, it's Dave. I would comment that we feel pretty comfortable given the production universe that we have. And you can see in the Q, the number of units we have under production between the backlog and our specs are under construction. We feel real comfortable with the full year guide and increasing the guidance we did in the quarter. But frankly, you're right, there's still work to do for the fourth quarter, and we're out doing work. So I think your assumptions are correct and the math you're doing is right, but we feel real comfortable given the size of the backlog and the production universe.

Alexander Rygiel

Analyst

Very helpful.

Allan Merrill

Management

And let me just add one other frame on that. It's not perfect, but I know it's a bit of an industry convention to look at backlog and do a conversion ratio of what will backlog be at June 30 and what percentage of that will close in the fourth quarter. It's a much higher fourth quarter backlog conversion in the last couple of years, but that's also a function of the fact that cycle times are dramatically different than they were over the last couple of years. So we won't be back to the kinds of backlog conversion that we had pre-COVID. So yes, it's a big step up. When you sort of put it in the pre- and post-COVID context, with the production universe that we've got, we feel very good about it.

Operator

Operator

Next, we'll go to the line of Alan Ratner from Zelman & Associates.

Alan Ratner

Analyst

Nice quarter, and thanks for all the detail. Allan, first -- and I apologize if you've given this detail in the past, but I was hoping you could just go into a little bit more detail on exactly kind of what the primary differences are between Ready Series and the older series. I'm not sure if they're drastically different in terms of floor plans or anything else that would kind of contribute to that margin lift that you're citing here.

Allan Merrill

Management

So there are a number of things. And in fact, I have to admit, Alan, I was really hoping for this question, and in fact, anticipating it. So there is a slide in the appendix that has both the homeowner benefits and some of the building science features that make these homes different. The envelope is different. The way it's wrapped is different. The way it's insulated is different. It has what's called an ERV or an energy recovery ventilator. The thing that a consumer would immediately notice is typically 2 x 6 walls. They'd also notice that the ducts are all in conditioned spaces, which kind of makes sense to people, they're like, gosh, running a bunch of ducts in an unconditioned attic where I'm losing a lot of heat or I'm gaining a lot of heat depending on the season is a problem. And then as we talk to people, we can really put mathematics with third-party validated testing on it relative to what's called a HERS score but maybe even more importantly, the air exchanges per hour. Now I know that a large portion of our buyer population doesn't walk into a new home community saying, I'm shopping HERS or I'm shopping ACH. So for us, a big opportunity is to explain to people the value that, that represents for them. And then when they say, okay, well, that all sounds good, but everybody sort of talks about green, where is the proof. And that's where the third-party validation, the testing and the metrics are. And then, frankly, they can't unsee what they've seen. They go into another community, and they asked to see somebody's HERS scores and our homes are pulling 30s and low 40s. They're going to go see 70s and people are bragging about them. So those are some of the characteristics that are different. I don't know if that totally answers your question. If we go a lot deeper, I want my building science people to get into it. But I will tell you, I've highlighted the features in this exhibit so that you can see very clearly the things that a buyer sees and understands if we do our job, this just makes it a better home.

Alan Ratner

Analyst

Got you. So on that point, though, I mean, is the better margin, would you say more of a cost savings? Or it sounds almost from what you're describing, you almost get more of a price premium, given all of these features in the home. So is it more of a price versus a cost savings standpoint?

Allan Merrill

Management

Yes. It's definitely a price issue because the cost to build these homes are higher than the cost to build our prior series homes.

Alan Ratner

Analyst

Got it.

Allan Merrill

Management

And Dave talked a little bit about '25, and I mean it's obviously early, but the thing that we have seen every community -- or every division started with 1 community with Zero Energy Ready and 1 home. And then it was the whole community, and then it was 2 communities. And this ball rolling downhill in terms of building momentum, what's really starting to happen is the trades get it, they are seeing benefits in cycle time, for example, our HVAC contractors are able to take a couple of days out of the install with the advanced duct install with our homes. They didn't know that at first. They were charging us a premium. They're like, we don't know what this is. We haven't used these products. We don't understand it. We don't really want to do it. You're going to have to pay extra to get us to do it. Now they look at it and say, wow, this home is actually going to be much better from a warranty standpoint. It was faster for us to build. Yes, we'll do that again, please. And we haven't -- I don't think really scratched the surface and clawing back some of those savings. So today, it is the fact that these homes are more expensive to build. And I don't want to in any way diminish our efforts to date, but I still don't think we've really scratched the surface on truly connecting buyers with realizing this is a home they cannot buy anywhere else. And I have done this personally in markets when I travel. Let's go look at a $2 million home. And let's see what their HERS score, what their ACH score is. Let's ask questions like to create a comparator to the kind of home that we're buying or building. We've got an opportunity to get better and better at explaining that. And that's why I think the revenue side is an opportunity as much as the cost side is.

Alan Ratner

Analyst

Great. Thank you for all that detail, Allan, and I'm not surprised you had the slide prepared for us. Second question, if I could. You mentioned the slide in your first quarter deck that kind of had the 3 scenarios, and I happened to pull it up. And the downside scenario in that deck is an environment with rates in the high 7s, which we're kind of pushing back up against today. I'm sure that's not what you and everybody expected 3 months ago. But on that slide, you also said, and I guess, in that environment, you would expect the sales pace to be sluggish and incentives to be higher. It doesn't sound like from your comments, you're really seeing that effect from the move-in rates. So I'm just curious if you could maybe just talk through what you are seeing in response to higher rates. Has the consumer been largely agnostic to it? Are you incentivizing more to kind of buy down the rate or do other things to improve the affordability equation given the move higher?

Allan Merrill

Management

We haven't seen a dramatic shift in incentives, particularly financial incentives. We have seen a migration and that overstates it. We've seen a move towards more temporaries than permanents as rates have moved up. Obviously, you get a pretty good bang for the buck on a [ 2-1 ] or a [ 3-2-1 ]. And in a higher rate environment, I think some buyers are analyzing that and saying, well, it's unfortunate, but with a temp, I am going to get a lower pay rate for a few years, and I will have an opportunity to refinance. I'm always at pains to point out, I don't know why I feel so strongly about it, that, of course, when buyers use temporary buydowns, they do qualify at the full pre-buy down rate. So this is not creating a different kind of a housing problem. And those of us who have been around the industry a long time, I want to always be very clear about this isn't like some previous period. But we are seeing a little more interest in the temporary buydowns. And the other thing that we saw, and we saw it in the second quarter, and I think we're going to see it in the third quarter and frankly, it's going to help us a little bit is, I think, a heightened interest in specs. I think that's the other thing that happens. And given that I'd really like our remaining spec, or Star & Plus series to go away in the third quarter, I'm okay with that.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Alex Barron from Housing Research Center. Alex Barrón: Yes. I wanted to focus in on share buybacks. I heard you mentioned it a little bit at the end, but I was just curious what would it take at this point given the valuation for you guys to step up and buy -- start to buy some given the big discount to book value?

David Goldberg

Management

Well, Alex, we try to make it pretty clear in the prepared remarks. We have a framework that we use. It's a consistent framework that looks at risk versus reward. And I would tell you, we have a $40 million authorization that's currently outstanding. And given where the stock is currently trading, not just from where the book is today, but where we see and have visibility on where it's going to be over time. It looks like a much more attractive use of our capital on a go-forward basis from a risk and return perspective. I won't get too detailed beyond that. But clearly, we're looking at it and evaluating it all the time on a real-time basis.

Allan Merrill

Management

I'll go a little further. I think we will be in the market executing against some share buyback. What we're not going to do, Alex, is just say, hey, at any price, it's the right thing to do. But in the current context of the share price, I do think that we will be participating in share buybacks when our window opens this quarter. Alex Barrón: Yes. No, I'm not saying at any price, but when it's trading at a 30% discount to book, it seems almost like a no-brainer. But anyway, good to hear that. What about similar thoughts on dividends? Maybe you're not quite there yet, but other builders have started to launch more consistent dividends. Just sort of thoughts around that.

David Goldberg

Management

I would tell you, Alex, it feels a little premature to have that conversation. I think we try to make it pretty clear kind of what the considerations in the market. And frankly, the purchase program, as Allan said, seems to make a lot of sense given where we are, so.

Allan Merrill

Management

Yes, and we want to execute our multiyear goals.

David Goldberg

Management

Yes.

Allan Merrill

Management

Like we've got -- we are going to grow the community count. We are going to have net debt to net cap below 30% when we said we would. And we think we can do that and accommodate in these -- this range of share price and buybacks. But I think to go beyond that in terms of returning capital to shareholders, we need to get a little further along. Alex Barrón: Okay. Great. And if I could ask a little more on the orders. The Southeast region orders were down 30%. And is that just mainly because you're experiencing strong demand and communities are selling out faster than you're replacing them? Or what's going on there?

Allan Merrill

Management

Yes. A lot of our Southeast divisions do not have very large community counts. And one of the things that happens to us occasionally in the Southeast is that we'll gap out because we don't run a big, big spec program, so we can get caught between phases a little bit. I don't think anyone should infer from a quarter a particular narrative around the Southeast. Our Southeast markets are pretty good. We are happy to be in them. And frankly, we're growing community count in every one of them.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Currently, our last question in queue is from Jay McCanless from Wedbush.

James McCanless

Analyst

So I wanted to ask also on the orders with both the Southeast and the East down pretty significantly relative to where the West was. The cynic in me says some of this move to the Ready, Plus homes is move some inventory, generate some cash flow in a very competitive environment. Is that the right way to think about this? Or is there really a push to get some of these newer homes out there?

Allan Merrill

Management

We really want to get the newer homes out there. You are familiar with our balance sheet. There isn't really a generate cash focal point. We're really trying to maximize the value of every community. We've got some communities that have been in the Star & Plus Series where we've been able to introduce Ready. We want to accelerate that. We've got some communities that are not going to be converted or transitioned to Ready. I'd like to build out of them. And in the communities where we are in all new communities are only Ready, we definitely want to get some sticks in the air. So we are seeding, as we always do, those communities with some specs. But that -- the focal point is really around the sooner we have clarity, certainty and the simplicity of we sell Ready homes. They're better built and they perform better. I think the happier we'll be, our buyers will be and our shareholders will be.

David Goldberg

Management

Jay, I would tell you in the East, the sales pace was very much in line with the overall company average. It was a little bit a tough comp from last year, but there's really nothing for you to get into there.

James McCanless

Analyst

Okay. And then I wanted to ask, I'm looking for the slide in the deck where you said that the -- okay, I think it's Slide 14 where you say that the gross margins when you transition to all Ready homes or mostly Ready homes is going to be improved versus the second half of fiscal '24. But when I'm looking at the numbers you gave right now, it looks like 20% adjusted gross margin for the third quarter, probably something in line to maybe a little bit better for the fourth quarter. I mean, that's a pretty easy bar to say you're going to be higher than. Where are these margins going to compare to where they were in the first half where you guys had pretty good set of gross margins in the first half of this year?

Allan Merrill

Management

Well, Jay, just for a quick correction on the question. The words in the script were pretty clear. If you look at the full year gross margin guide, it suggests a pretty significant pickup in the fourth quarter. So it's not going to be around 20%. We said it's a number better than that.

David Goldberg

Management

And I think we guided to about 21% for the full year. The only way you're going to get there with Q3 at 20% is a good lift in Q4.

Allan Merrill

Management

Exactly.

James McCanless

Analyst

Okay. But then still the question is, how does the margins under these new homes compared to what you were doing in the front half? Is it going to be equal, slightly less as you get the build issues worked out? What should we expect from that?

Allan Merrill

Management

Well, I guess I would say is we think that margins in '25 will be higher than margins in '24. And that's because these are homes that command, I think that kind of value and because I think we can keep working on getting our build costs down. So it's hard to make a comparison of one period to another period, is which periods in which homes, but at a higher level, what we've said is '25 will be above '24.

James McCanless

Analyst

Okay. And then the last one I had, just on the specs, it looks like your specs and process were up sequentially from first quarter to second quarter. Could you talk about what's driving that?

Allan Merrill

Management

Community count growth.

David Goldberg

Management

Yes. Jay, if you look at our slide, we actually show on a per community basis, and it's really not dissimilar on a per community basis. It's just that we have the community count growth coming online, and that's driving some incremental specs.

James McCanless

Analyst

Okay. And then I actually did have one more. What was the incentive percentage in the quarter? And what was it in the prior year?

David Goldberg

Management

Let me grab it for you. One second, Jay. I don't have it in front of you -- front of me right now. I can tell you, Jay, the number hasn't moved too significantly in the second quarter. It's been a pretty minimal change. I can follow up with the exact number, but we look at it pretty closely on a quarter-by-quarter, week-by-week basis to see what's happening and it really didn't move much in the second quarter.

Operator

Operator

And I am showing no further questions.

David Goldberg

Management

Okay. I want to thank everybody for dialing in to our second quarter call. We look forward to [indiscernible] in next quarter as we move toward the end of the year. Thanks so much, and have a good night.

Operator

Operator

Thank you all for participating in today's conference. You may disconnect your lines, and enjoy the rest of your day.