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Cable One, Inc. (CABO)

Q3 2024 Earnings Call· Sat, Nov 9, 2024

$98.96

-0.83%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello, and welcome to the Cable One, Inc. Q3 2024 Earnings Call. All participants are in listen-only mode at this time. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jordan Morkert, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Jordan Morkert

Analyst

Good afternoon, and welcome to Cable One's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. We're glad to have you join us as we review our results. Before we proceed, I would like to remind you that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements relating to future events that involve risks and uncertainties, including statements regarding future broadband revenue and customer growth, customer losses due to the end of the affordable connectivity program, future ARPU, future levels of wired competition, growth in carrier, wholesale and enterprise market segments, the future capabilities of our network anticipated benefits from AI, the timing and anticipated benefits of our new billing system implementation, capital expenditures, purchase price payable if the MBI put option is exercised in the anticipated timeline to consummate such transaction, our ability and sources of capital to fund the MBI put price and our future financial performance, capital allocation, dividend policy, leverage ratios and financing plans. You can find factors that could cause Cable One's actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements discussed during today's call, in today's earnings release and in our SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K/A. Cable One is under no obligation and expressly disclaims any obligation, except as required by law, to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Additionally, today's remarks will include a discussion of certain financial measures that are not presented in conformity with the U.S. generally accepted accounting principles or GAAP. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures discussed on this call to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release or on our website at ir.cableone.net. Joining me on today's call is our President and CEO, Julia Laulis; and Todd Koetje, our CFO. With that, let me turn the call over to Julie.

Julia Laulis

Analyst

Thank you, Jordan, and good afternoon, everyone. We appreciate you joining us for today's call. In the third quarter, we continued to execute on our phased plan for long-term broadband growth. As expected, residential ARPU stabilized and our customer base remained essentially unchanged after excluding the impact of customer losses from the expiration of the affordable connectivity program and minimal customer gains from a small acquisition in July. Business Broadband growth also accelerated, driven by rising demand across enterprise segments. Looking ahead, we are confident in our ability to grow broadband revenue over the long term. This confidence is rooted in insights we've gained with new go-to-market tactics, recent talent additions and organizational changes, new product offerings and the resilience of our highly secured network, which has maintained significant capacity amidst double-digit increases in data demand. This quarter also marked several significant milestones including advancements in digital transformation and expanded use of AI, a strategic rebranding and ongoing organizational alignment, all guided by a customer-first mindset. Before Todd reviews our financial performance in detail, I'll dive deeper into topics of broadband growth, product and network enhancements and strategic initiatives. I want to emphasize that despite the early stages of a phased plan for long-term growth, we remain confident that our steadfast approach will help us successfully navigate the evolving competitive landscape while delivering shareholder value. Starting with residential broadband, HSD subscribers were essentially flat for the quarter excluding the impact from the discontinuation of ACP, which ended in April. We were able to accomplish this despite the ongoing transition to our new billing system, which has required a suspension of price adjustments for more than a quarter, limiting our ability to make marketing adjustments to approximately 20% of our HSD customers. To support our growth and drive our strategy in…

Todd Koetje

Analyst

Thanks, Julie. Starting off with revenue. For the third quarter of 2024, our total revenues were $393.6 million compared to $420.3 million in the third quarter of 2023. The year-over-year decrease was due primarily to lower residential data ARPU and continued attrition within our lower-margin product line. After declining sequentially over the first half of the year, residential data ARPU stabilized from Q2 to Q3. As Julie noted, we expect this to continue through the end of this year. Q3 residential data revenues decreased by $17.1 million or 6.9% year-over-year, driven by a 7.1% decrease in ARPU. This decline was due to targeted pricing and product strategies in specific markets to address select competitors, along with a focus on the valued customer segment, which generally has lower sell-in rates. Shifting to Business Services. Third quarter business data revenues grew by $1.6 million or 2.9% compared to the same period last year. Business data PSUs grew by 1,100 over the past 12 months. This growth is fueled by strong demand across the carrier, wholesale and enterprise customer segments, which generate our highest revenues per customer and benefit from long-term contracts with high renewal rates. Operating expenses were $104.6 million. The decrease in expense was driven largely by a $7.6 million decrease in programming and franchise costs as well as our ongoing focus on optimizing cost structures within our labor base. Selling, general and administrative expenses were $88.4 million or 22.5% of revenues for the third quarter of 2024 compared to $92.7 million and 22.1% in the third quarter of last year. The decrease in expense was driven in large part by lower labor and other compensation-related costs due to organizational changes implemented during the second quarter, partially offset by increased expenses related to new platform implementations and rebranding. Net income was…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Sebastiano Petti from J.P. Morgan.

Sebastiano Petti

Analyst

A couple of quick housekeeping questions and maybe a broader strategic question. But Julie, can you just clarify the billing system comment that you made with -- you are unable to change pricing packaging for 20% of your base. Does that have any financial or subscriber impacts in the quarter? And then secondarily, on the pay-as-you-go pilot, I understand that it's still a pilot, but it seems -- it might be dilutive to ARPU. I mean just trying to take us through the puts and takes that you're considering on that as you kind of test that. And then lastly, thinking about the broader ecosystem, we are seeing fiber consolidation targeted convergent M&A from some of the wireless players. As you look across the industry and CABO's current strategic positioning, do you still believe it makes sense for CABO to be a consolidator of rural cable has kind of been the thought over the last several years. Does it make sense to perhaps be larger -- be part of a larger enterprise?

Julia Laulis

Analyst

You bet. So billing system, great questions, Sebastiano. It is -- it did not have an effect on customers or the company with the exception that when you're getting ready to convert customers from one system to another, you aren't allowed to make changes in the existing system. So that means that when you want to market, you don't have the ability to change rates for a long period of time. In this case, everything was frozen as it was in those billing systems because it's multiples as we bring those family of brands into Sparklight from really mid-summer to right now. So if we wanted to react or change or do anything differently, we could not. We were literally locked into those rates. And that's something you live with when you do a billing conversion and ideally, you plan way in advance so that, that is not an issue. But quite honestly, in this case, that's not what happened. Okay. What's next? Pay-as-you-go. Well, that to, again, brand-new program, really pretty innovative, I think. I don't see anything exactly like it in the marketplace and we're going to learn a lot. And we really imagine that this is the place -- this is the place for value-conscious customers. And that would specifically point to cellphone internet competitors as well. This gives customers the ultimate freedom. They can sign up for a day, they can sign up for a month, whatever they have the funds or the needs for, they can change their speeds and have a gig one day and 300 megs another. And this is not targeted at just one size of product. That is to say we have 100 meg, 300 meg, 500 meg and 1 gig that you can get, because even if I'm a value-conscious…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Craig Moffett from MoffettNathanson.

Craig Moffett

Analyst

Julie, as I think through your broadband ARPU, I'll come back to your question I've asked a lot in the past. And that's -- how do you think about the prospect of wireless, particularly adding Tony with real wireless expertise. You're increasingly competing against wireline players who are offering a converged bundle. Do you think that's hurting you in the marketplace? Or is that still not really a part of the competitive set that you're facing?

Julia Laulis

Analyst

That's a good question that we think about quite a bit as well, Craig. We examined mobile specifically on at least a biannual basis, at least. And when we look at it, we're taking into account what our customers express needs and wants in our market specifically and the financial impacts of doing a product launch like that. And I see us embarking on a whole range of projects and products that bring value to our customers and ultimately, our shareholders. I also can think back to the past where we didn't jump in right away on some things. We took time to study them pretty thoroughly and that mentality has served us well. Two quick examples are video on demand and home security, where we did not do those 2 products. We did not -- well, we didn't do them. And it doesn't mean that we're not going to do mobile. I mean we are looking at it even more intensely, not just Tony, but studying what our peers have done, but we have to be able to articulate the with them. What's in it for me or the customer for the company, for the shareholder, before we jump into that. And I would just say, I think we're very open to bundling of all sorts, putting together items that bring value to our customers is something that we are going to continue to explore, whether that is products that easily attached to the HSD product, to wireless, to mobile or possibly even don't pull off your chair Craig, but video. So we're open.

Craig Moffett

Analyst

If I could just ask a quick follow-up. Do you think that whether it's directly or through the ACA or something that you -- that attractive wholesale rates for wireless are available to you? Or is it simply that there aren't attractive enough rates out there to make it particularly compelling wholesale rates, I mean, to make it particularly compelling for you to offer at this point?

Julia Laulis

Analyst

I think it's holistic. It's about what it can do in terms of generating revenue at what capital and operating cost as well as are there benefits related to churn, it's the whole picture.

Todd Koetje

Analyst

Craig, we have the access. As Julie said, it's got to be evaluated through that lens of all of the other assumptions as well. But the access is there. I won't say the cost is extremely compelling. But over time, that also potentially could change.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Sam McHugh from BNP Paribas.

Sam McHugh

Analyst

First one, just on ARPU. I know consensus next year has ARPU staying pretty stable relative to Q3 and then what's implied for Q4, but also has a big tick up in kind of residential net additions. Do you feel like you're getting in the right place now where you can get back to nice subscriber growth at the same time as delivering stable to maybe growing ARPU? That's the first question. And then secondly, just on fiber overlap. I know you've given us some numbers last quarter. I don't know if there's any update on how much fiber overlap you have in your footprint now?

Julia Laulis

Analyst

Okay. Sam, it's Julie. So yes, ARPU stabilized and we believe it will stay that way through Q4. If as we say, we had several things that affected it. Our AutoPayPlus program, promotional roll off and high sell-in as we articulated. Your question is a good one, one that I've been thinking a lot about. Can you move both levers at the same time. And certainly, in the past, that was, quite honestly, a walk down a beautiful path. Recently, if you look at peers, you noticed them doing one or the other. I will note that year-to-date, absent ACP losses, we have grown broadband, and we're now stabilizing ARPU. Recall, we talked several quarters ago about what we were all about in '24, which was shifting from our high LTV strategy to a growth strategy. And in the midst of that, we knew that we would be attacking some very specific competitors in markets and rerating and that, that would have a problem -- or a pull down, excuse me, in ARPU, which we've now stabilized. We fully expect to be growing broadband revenue. That is our imperative.

Todd Koetje

Analyst

Sam, it's Todd. On the fiber overlap, we reported last quarter below 40% of the overall network, and that remains very consistent.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Gregory Williams from TD Cowen.

Greg Williams

Analyst

The first one is, Julia, you mentioned competition is stabilizing. And I think Todd sort of alluded to in that last answer. Is that in the fiber-to-the-home world and fixed wireless? Because in fixed wireless, we saw some of the carriers increasing their subtargets. And one of your peers, Altice said that they're seeing expansion of fixed wireless, but Charters are saying it's peakish. So I'm curious, the competition is stabilizing for both technologies. And then the second question is just on the OpEx investments that you are doing. I think last time we talked, you expect them to mitigate in mid-2025 and I'm just wondering if that's still the case?

Julia Laulis

Analyst

I'll take the first one, it's so bizarre. fiber and cell phone, internet, what are we seeing? Well, Todd talked about the fiber overlap and specifically, we've been watching and trialing and learning in the whole competitive realm. It's starting to feel pretty normal to us now. I think we're seeing some cumulative effects of the adjustments that we've taken over the past quarters. And what I mean by that is we're seeing that some of the markets with the highest levels of competition actually have positive growth -- positive growth in the quarter, outperforming even less competitive markets. And we've been watching markets that we have done different tactics to, one of them being rerating to see how quickly they normalize, how quickly do they go through their peak and pull back down into normal levels. And it's actually pretty fascinating. Some as fast as 6 months. That means we get through them going after some segment of the marketplace, getting some level of penetration and then dropping back down in to normal levels within 6 months. Some as long as 18 months. But we definitely feel like we've seen the spike that can come along with new entrants being blunted with some of our recent rerates. We've also seen competitive disconnects go down 14% to 323 to 324. We are watching to see what the competitors do. When we make moves, we're heartened to see many of them increasing their rates, which we think goes to their need for returns. But that's dynamic. And so we track that. We're not endeavoring to follow suit. We're just tracking it. In the end, the competition has made us focused on being better. So when we talk about cell phone Internet customers or competitors, excuse me, my phone is ringing even…

Todd Koetje

Analyst

Greg, it's Todd. I would just add on the churn. We made the comment last quarter, and I'd reiterate it again this quarter. Even with the ACP losses, we're at 5-year lows for churn or customer retention. So when you think about the increasing competitive environment, which is increasing, both on the wired and the cell phone internet, we believe that, that's a very strong testimonial of our customer satisfaction and the long-term relationships we have with them. Less ACP, that number blew everything away relative to where that churn level is if you extract out the AC feature. You asked about the OpEx investments and the timetable. So just to address that, that is still consistently in that time frame of what has been late '24 and into the mid-2025 time frame.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Steven Cahall from Wells Fargo.

Steven Cahall

Analyst

I guess first of all, the stabilization of ARPU that you saw on the quarter and the focus on driving towards broadband revenue growth over the long term and some positive trends around gig sell-in and data consumption. How do you think about your ability to get back into maybe a cadence of pricing power or price increases on the majority of the base. Is that something that you think could be on the horizon? Or is this something you think is going to take some time due to other issues? And I wonder how you've competitively benchmarked yourselves. One of your peers targets 3% to 4% ARPU growth annually. I'm just wondering what you think is different about maybe their customer footprint than yours that's contributed to some of this ARPU differential. And then the competitive stabilization seems constructive. I think you said that what you've seen is some more rational pricing. Any sense of what's happening on the build front. I'm wondering if that slowed down as well.

Julia Laulis

Analyst

So related to ARPU and pricing, I do think that there is price elasticity at the upper end maybe in just a "naked" rate adjustment, but also if you can add value added perks, there's absolutely room there. I think that if you segment out the customer base, there are absolutely segments that could bear a rate adjustment. We also did AutoPay but only the AutoPayPlus program, but only to a portion of our customers. And so for some of those people, that ended up being a rate adjustment, right, because they did not choose to do ACH and sign up for billing to be paperless, et cetera, and automatic. So that was an effective rate adjustment for them. We have our family of brands in about 350,000 customers in Sparklight that have not had that yet. And so that's obviously again, it can show up as a rate adjustment if the customer doesn't choose to neutralize it. When it comes to ARPU differential, I mean, we -- that one's easy. We had a high LTV strategy. We went after the high end with a premium product, we had lower penetration, leading ARPUs. And so of course, when you go into an environment where you're no longer in what we used to term safe harbor and you're going to go compete, you're going to likely give up some ARPU in those cases, whereas others are coming from a much lower base and have room to grow up. So we are very different by design or we were very different by design.

Todd Koetje

Analyst

And I think over time, where we continue to penetrate in that value segment, recall, it's really only about a year that we've really been more targeted to customer acquisition in that segment. And we had to really monitor and measure it very closely relative to not only the cost to install, the cost to serve, but also the retention of that customer to be able to evaluate the unit economics, the way that we would want from an accretive contribution perspective. And as I've mentioned in the past, correlation of that retention is very, very high to our premium customer base, which is very encouraging. And then over time, that base also has an opportunity for whether it be more organic upgrades or potential some price elasticity as well as Julie was alluding to.

Julia Laulis

Analyst

But to be clear, we tried a lot of things in the past 9 months, 12 months, and not all the things that we tried worked, and we learned from them. So --

Todd Koetje

Analyst

And then on the build front, you were asking about the build front on the competitive stabilization. We've talked about the access to capital, the cost of capital. I think what you're seeing in the M&A environment right now is large scale consolidation with some of these super regional platforms. And obviously, cost of capital and access to capital is going to be less of an issue for those large -- many of them investment-grade issuers. But at the same time, the needle moving impact for those large companies is going to be probably less focused on our small communities. For the Temos and the Verizons and the BCE to move the build needle, it's either going to be upgrading to larger markets or building into larger markets in our opinion.

Operator

Operator

All right. And that is all the time we have for questions today. So I'd like to turn it back over to Julie and the Cable One team for closing remarks.

Julia Laulis

Analyst

Thank you, Jeremy. Before we conclude, I want to extend my sincere gratitude to our associates for their relentless efforts throughout our recent billing conversion. Your dedication around-the-clock and it literally has been around-the-clock is making this milestone possible, unlocking significant opportunities for the company's future. None of this would be achievable without your unwavering commitment. Thank you, and we look forward to speaking with you all again next quarter.

Operator

Operator

That does conclude today's presentation. Have a pleasant evening.