Jeffrey W. Henderson
Analyst · Credit Suisse
Thanks, George, and hello, everyone. I'm happy to be discussing another quarter of strong results. I'll begin my remarks today by expanding on some financial trends and drivers in the second quarter. And then I'll touch briefly on our updated fiscal 2012 guidance. Let's start with Slide 4. During the quarter, we grew our non-GAAP EPS by 11% to $0.81 per share, driven by 7% revenue and 21% non-GAAP operating earnings growth. Looking specifically at revenue. Even if you exclude the year-on-year impact of the mid-year fiscal 2011 acquisitions which contributed about 4.1 percentage points, underlying sales are growing well, driven by increased volume from existing and net new customers for both segments. Although non-GAAP operating expenses were up 6%, more than half of this growth represents expenses added through the aforementioned acquisitions, with a sizable portion of the remainder related to planned business system investments. Consolidated gross margin and non-GAAP operating margin rates continue to increase year-on-year, up 19 and 21 basis points, respectively. Interest and other expense came in $8 million higher than last year, driven by changes in the value of our deferred compensation plan. Our non-GAAP tax rate for the quarter was 37.8% versus an abnormally low 32% last year. Tax rate this quarter included unfavorable net discrete items of $5 million driven by state tax items versus a net favorable $17 million in the prior year. Finally, favorability in our share count versus last year was driven by the $300 million of share buybacks we completed in Q1. Our share count in Q2 was about 349 million diluted average shares outstanding versus 351 million in the prior year's quarter. I would like to point out that our FY '12 share count guidance remains at approximately 352 million shares. As a reminder, this higher share count forecast is driven by certain assumptions such as the impact of share price on the dilution calculation and exercising of options. Now let me comment on consolidated cash flow and the balance sheet. Operating cash flow for the quarter was a use of $114 million, driven by normal and anticipated year end working capital demands and the impact of large customer ordering patterns. Year-to-date, operating cash flow of approximately $400 million is still slightly ahead of where we were at this point last year. Overall, our net working capital days ended the quarter at 8.8 days versus 8.4 in the prior year, driven by a slight variance in days payable. We ended Q2 with approximately $1.8 billion in cash, of which approximately $300 million is held overseas. This cash balance does not include our investments in held-to-maturity fixed income securities, which are classified as other assets in the balance sheet and totaled approximately $100 million at quarter end. Now let's move to Q2 segment performance, referring primarily to Slide 5 and 6, and starting with the Pharma segment. Revenue in the segment increased 6.5%, with the China and Kinray acquisitions we completed in the prior year's quarter contributing 4.4 percentage points to this growth rate. Let me walk through a few of the other drivers. In the pharmaceutical distribution business, growth in existing and new customers was a strong driver. Non-bulk sales specifically were up 14.8% for the quarter. As George mentioned, our Specialty Solutions business continues to progress, growing revenue this quarter at 37%. Our nuclear business continues to be challenged by the low-energy market volume softness that we described last quarter. As you would expect, we are taking actions within this business in the areas of contracting strategies, network and sourcing efficiency and expense management to mitigate the impact of this demand softness. It is possible that one of these initiatives may result in an inventory write-off or other impacts later this year, the majority of which would likely be in the third quarter. Any likely range for that expense is reflected in our guidance. As George mentioned, we remain excited about growth opportunities on the positron emission tomography side of the business where we grew our doses per day, one of the key performance indicators we track internally, by more than 8% compared to the prior year. Pharma segment profit margin rate increased by a noteworthy 29 basis points compared to prior year's Q2, in part reflecting a continued mixed shift towards non-bulk. Further, we saw margin expansion in each of the classes of trade that we track within the Pharma distribution business. We continue to see significant contribution from the ongoing success of our generics programs, including the favorable impact of generic new item launches, with both Zyprexa and LIPITOR contributing strongly. As an aside related to generic deflation, we did benefit from inflation on a few specific generic products in Q2 which helped to moderate the overall deflation rate to a level that was better than our expectations for the quarter. Performance in our manufacture agreements, both branded and generic, was a positive driver in the quarter. Some of this variance was driven by timing of price increases, including one that we view as the pull ahead from Q3, as well as sizable increases for a few specific products that we view as somewhat atypical. We also continue to see strong contribution from the Kinray and China acquisitions. As we have now lapped both of these deals, this is the last time we plan to provide a breakout of the combined impact. But the benefit to segment profit in Q2 is estimated at a little less than 13 percentage points in total from both acquisitions. In summary, the Pharma segment had another excellent quarter, resulting in a 30% increase in segment profit to $394 million. Now turning to our Medical segment. For the quarter, revenue increased by 9.4% to $2.4 billion, driven by increased sales to customers across all channels. Let me highlight a few items driving this result. Volume from net customer wins was again positive this quarter. We saw another good increase in revenue from our preferred products. As we've highlighted in the past, this is a key growth and margin expansion opportunity for us. Our ambulatory business, another important focus area for us, also had another strong quarter with 11% revenue growth. Consistent with the last quarter, we also had a couple of unique items which contributed to our reported revenue growth that I want to quantify once again. First is the ongoing effect of having transitioned our business with CareFusion to a traditional branded distribution model, a move that we highlighted in our Q3 earnings call last year. This change added 2 percentage points, or $44 million, to revenue. The second item is the impact of the refinement we made in the way we report results for our international commercial operations, which I discussed in detail on last quarter's call. This change also contributed 2 percentage points to the Medical segment revenue growth rate in the quarter while having a relatively insignificant impact on segment profit growth. Now turning to Medical segment profit, which as we expected heading into the quarter, declined 18% to $85 million, driven by the negative impact of commodity prices. Specifically, commodity prices impacted our current period cost of products sold by $23 million versus last year. For the full year, we are still expecting a headwind of approximately $70 million as favorable price movements in cotton and latex since the last call have largely been offset by unfavorable oil and oil derivative trends. Of the remaining negative impact in the second half, we estimate approximately $20 million will be felt in Q3. As a reminder, due to the lagging effect between price movements and the corresponding impact on our cost of products sold, further changes in commodity price levels during this fiscal year will have more of an FY '13 than FY '12 impact. We saw approximately $5 million of negative impact from foreign currency movements this quarter, roughly the same what we saw in Q1 and in line with our expectations. Additionally, we increased our investments in information systems, which affected the year-over-year expense comparison in the quarter. In this regard, I'm pleased to report that we are nearing the national implementation of our medical business transformation during Q3. As we've said in the past, we expect meaningful margin accretion from this project beginning in fiscal 2013. But I'd like to remind you that since most of our attention in the coming months will be on ensuring a successful launch, we are not assuming much benefit in fiscal '12. And segment results will be dampened in the back half of the year as we begin to depreciate these assets and incur incremental project spend associated with the national implementation. Specifically, we expect over $50 million of negative expense impact versus prior year in the second half, with the majority of this in Q3 as we implement and ensure a smooth rollout post-launch. But again, we expect the benefits of this project to more than outweigh the depreciation expense next year. Partially offsetting the effect of these negative items was the positive margin benefit from increasing our sales of preferred products, as well as the impact of increased volume to existing and net new customers. Given the masking impact of commodity costs this year, we thought it'd be helpful to share some of the key metrics we track internally to measure our progress in the Medical segment. Let's start with revenue growth and net customer wins. Even adjusting for unique items like the CareFusion switch and the international reporting change, core sales growth was in the mid-single digits in both the first and second quarter and is expected to be at that rate for the full year. Net customer wins have been positive each quarter so far this year, and again are expected to be so for the full fiscal '12. One related point in this regard is we have been informed that the transition to the expanded Department of Defense med/surg contract that was awarded to us last year has been delayed by the Department of Defense until May due to their systems change, pushing out any impact out of Q3. Moving on to the growth of preferred products. Sales of Cardinal Health-branded products specifically grew 12% in Q2 and are expected to grow at least high-single digits for the year. And finally, ambulatory growth. Despite reports of sluggish and choppy trends of physician office visits, our ambulatory business grew 11% in Q2 and has been outgrowing the market for at least 10 quarters now. So in summary, we are closely tracking the progress of our medical strategy and remain excited about where the future is heading. Now I’d like to spend a few minutes discussing Cardinal Health China. Our revenue in China was again very strong. And in particular, we continue to see exceptional growth from our local direct distribution business, which grew its revenue by 37% during the quarter. By the end of Q3, we will have expanded to 10 distribution center sites in China, and our service area will cover more than 250 million people. We also continue to move forward in our evaluation and piloting of opportunities in other areas such as consumer healthcare products for retail pharmacies, direct-to-patient specialty distribution, diagnostics and live supplies and medical device distribution. In summary, Cardinal Health China continues to perform well, and we are very optimistic about its future. Let's turn to Slide 7 which I'll just summarize. In total, GAAP results in the quarter include items that had a negative $0.05 per share net after-tax impact, primarily from the exclusion of $0.03 of amortization of acquisition-related intangible assets from our non-GAAP results. This compares to a negative $0.12 net impact in our GAAP results last year, mostly driven by $0.08 in acquisition-related costs. Now let me briefly comment on our fiscal 2012 full-year outlook. Following our strong first half results, we are both tightening and raising our non-GAAP EPS guidance to a range of $3.10 to $3.20. All our assumptions on Slide 9 and 10 remain largely consistent with our prior guidance. This new range also encompasses our forecast for some key factors, including generic launch timing and value, generic deflation, branded price increases, a LIFO charge which could be up to $25 million and any anticipated impact on our results from the Express Scripts and Walgreens situation. While we generally don't provide quarterly guidance, I did want to make some directional comments about the shape of the second half of this fiscal year. Based on our $3.10 to $3.20 guidance range and our best estimate of timing of events, we anticipate the Q3 EPS growth rate versus last year to be in the mid- to high-single digits. Keep in mind that many of the drivers that result in this growth pattern were referenced by me earlier in my discussion. But I'd be happy to answer any further questions on it during our Q&A. To close, let me reiterate: this was a very solid quarter, and I'm very pleased with our first half results. We have continued to execute well across both our base business and on key strategic growth drivers. And we remain well positioned to deliver value to our shareholders. Now let me turn it over to our operator to begin the Q&A session.