Earnings Labs

Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR)

Q2 2016 Earnings Call· Wed, Aug 3, 2016

$179.24

-4.19%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to the Avis Budget Group Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Neal Goldner, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, please go ahead.

Neal H. Goldner - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you, Jim. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. On the call with me are Larry De Shon, our Chief Executive Officer; and David Wyshner, our President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that the company will be discussing forward-looking information that involves risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information. Important risks, assumptions, and other factors that could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements are specified in the company's earnings release and other periodic filings with the SEC, which are available on the Investor Relations' section of our website at avisbudgetgroup.com. We have provided slides to accompany this morning's conference call, which can be accessed on our website as well. Our comments will focus on our adjusted results and other non-GAAP financial measures that are reconciled to our GAAP numbers in our press release and in the earnings call presentation on our website. Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Avis Budget Group's Chief Executive Officer, Larry De Shon. Larry D. De Shon - Director, Chief Executive & Operating Officer: Thank you, Neal, and good morning. We've been working hard on ways to win customers by investing in technology to enhance the service we provide, while also reducing cost, streamlining processes and driving efficiencies. In the second quarter, we took a meaningful step forward, transforming the car rental experience with the launch of Avis Now. Avis Now is an innovative app-based technology that puts travelers in control of the rental experience from reservation to rental to return. The early feedback from customers has been overwhelmingly positive. At the same time, we made significant strides on several other key initiatives. We made further…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Our first question comes from Chris Agnew from MKM Partners. Your line is open.

Christopher Agnew - MKM Partners LLC

Analyst

Thanks very much. Good morning. I was wondering, if I could dig into a little bit into commercial pricing trends. I know there are several different buckets in there. I was wondering if you could give us color on those, sort of the small business contract renewals, and then maybe the big Fortune 500 companies. And you also mentioned that, I think, 99% renewal of contracts, but are you managing to achieve price increases? Thank you. Larry D. De Shon - Director, Chief Executive & Operating Officer: Hi, Chris. Thank you. This is Larry. On the commercial side, we said pricing was down about a point in the quarter, and as we take a look at the kind of the mix you see, what you'll see is the large commercial pricing will continue to be kind of under pressure. It's a highly competitive business segment, so that's always going to be under pressure. And the goal is to continue to try to drive more of the mid market and small business accounts, which come at a higher RPD. So that'll be the continued focus of the sales team is to make sure that we maintain our large commercial accounts, and we continue to grow the midmarket and small business side. Canada actually saw a small increase in RPD on the large commercial, not much, but it was an increase year-over-year, so that was positive. So, I'm sorry, the second part of your question. The renewals, yeah. So, the renewals have been good and steady. We've been seeing I think about 62% of our accounts have been renewed at flat or slightly up as well, so that's been a positive side going forward.

Christopher Agnew - MKM Partners LLC

Analyst

Great. Thanks. And David I know you touched on this, but SG&A Avis up, I think, 11% in the quarter, 10% first half, you mentioned higher marketing costs. Is there anything else driving the increase? How do we think about the second half and when do you get back to more of a normalized pace? Thanks. David B. Wyshner - President & Chief Financial Officer: Sure. You're right. We did have additional marketing expenses and I think they really took two forms. Part of it is the additional brand marketing, the brand advertising that we are doing, both related to Avis in Europe and Budget here in the United States and that was largely contained to the second quarter. We've also over the last year or so entered into and expanded some of our marketing partnerships and relationships and that's a healthy source of good volume for us. So we're seeing some incremental commission expenses associated with that and that piece will continue, but I think that's helpful to us overall not only in terms of strengthening the brands, but giving us access to some attractive business that helps a little bit from a pricing perspective and allows us to reduce our use of things like opaques. So that piece will continue, but the big driver of the increase in the second quarter was a little bit of timing issues in Europe, but principally the increase in brand advertising.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Chris Woronka of Deutsche Bank. You may ask your question.

Chris J. Woronka - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Hey, good morning, guys. On the full year guidance and decision to bring up the low end of that and thus the midpoint, would you characterize that as more confidence in the pricing outlook or greater confidence that fleet costs are locked down or some combination? Larry D. De Shon - Director, Chief Executive & Operating Officer: Hi, Chris. Yeah, I think it's a combination. Pricing, we feel better about after having a good second quarter and how things are looking as we go through the summer. Fleet costs, we have already sold three quarters of our fleet, so we're pretty confident about where fleet cost will be coming out for the year. We're seeing some improvements in some of the major cost lines that we've been working pretty hard on. So, I think it's a combination of a number of things coming together that kind of gives us the confidence that will get us there. And plus, we've got the benefit of July now behind us and a good look at how July performed as well.

Chris J. Woronka - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Very good. And as we think about leisure continuing to be stronger than commercial, can you maybe tell us how – does that impact kind of the blended RPD at all in terms of the mix and maybe even kind of go down to the channels that you're pulling from. Is there any positive or negative kind of mix shift there? David B. Wyshner - President & Chief Financial Officer: Yeah. I think the growth in leisure over the course of the year puts a little bit of pressure on rate, but we don't view that as significant and certainly the pricing there has been stronger. What's been helpful to us is being able to pick our spots on some of the channels and the types of business that we like. So, one of the things that helped pricing a bit is that we're able to reduce the number of opaque transactions that we took and to increase the pricing on those that we did and we continue to look to optimize segments and channels to help on the pricing side. And I think our optimization efforts were part of the reason why we're able to achieve a 2% constant currency pricing growth in the Americas.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from John Healy of Northcoast Research. You may ask your question.

John Healy - Northcoast Research Partners LLC

Analyst

Thank you. Larry, I just wanted to ask a little bit about the trends in July on the leisure pricing side. Are we right in thinking that July trends probably were stronger than what you reported for overall 2Q or how should we expect, how did the cadence of pricing move in 2Q, and maybe if you could tell us kind of how July performed for you now that's in the rearview? Larry D. De Shon - Director, Chief Executive & Operating Officer: In July, I think we're pleased with how July has turned out, and I think it's a continuation of how we saw the second quarter kind of develop. We don't want to get into kind of a month-to-month analysis or talking about how pricing is going month-to-month. So, I'll stay away from that, but we had a good second quarter and we're expecting the rest of the year from a pricing perspective to be similar to what we experienced in the second quarter.

John Healy - Northcoast Research Partners LLC

Analyst

Okay. Fair enough. And I want to ask just on the capital allocation. You guys have been fairly active on the buyback front in the first half and even though like that pace is going to continue, but on acquisitions kind of a little bit of pause here, I feel like the last one you guys did that at least we know about was Poland, kind of curious to know if acquisitions are something that you'd expect to see ramp up as we close 2016 and as we head into 2017? Larry D. De Shon - Director, Chief Executive & Operating Officer: I think we've been pretty consistent with – we're always going to look at acquisitions that make sense for us, particularly licensees that may border some of our corporate countries or anything that strategically might make sense for us. But, you're right, the last acquisition we did was Poland, and I think that what you'll see is from a capital side, we will be spending most of our free cash flow on stock repurchases going forward, but we're still open to anything that makes sense and if the timing is right.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley. You may ask your question. Neel N. Mehta - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Thanks, and good morning. This is Neel Mehta on for Adam Jonas. Just a couple of questions today. First of all, could you talk a little bit more about your recently announced partnership with TrueCar. How big of a channel do you see this becoming and can you talk about the potential improvement in residuals by disposing of vehicles through channels such as this? Larry D. De Shon - Director, Chief Executive & Operating Officer: Sure. It's a pretty exciting opportunity for us. We're at the very beginning stages of it, but TrueCar, it looks like is a very good online marketing of used cars. So, we're looking forward to leveraging that, it's a good partnership, they're great people to work with or as I said at the very beginning stages of it, so it looks like it's a good upside for us. We've sold 40% of our cars now in the quarter through alternative disposition channels, so it's really good quarter for us, and we'll continue to grow that percentage methodically quarter-after-quarter-after-quarter. So, we have a lot of room ahead of us for an opportunity, and as you know for each car that we sell through an alternative channel like this, we do get incremental value out of that sale than what we do through the traditional auctions. So it's an opportunity ahead of us, and we'll continue to grow our percentages, as you will, as we go forward quarter-by-quarter. Neel N. Mehta - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Great. Thanks. And then one more question. Can you give us some more color on your Demand-Fleet-Pricing system, in particular based on the pilot programs that…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Jordan Hymowitz of Philadelphia Financial. You may ask your question.

Jordan Neil Hymowitz - Philadelphia Financial Management of San Francisco LLC

Analyst

Hey, guys. Thanks and congratulations on a truly great quarter. Great job turning things around. Two questions. One is, you said commercial revenue per day in the quarter was down 1%. To make it 2% average, does that mean leisure domestic was up 4% to 5%? Larry D. De Shon - Director, Chief Executive & Operating Officer: No. The commercial was down 1%, leisure was up 3%. I think they rounded to up 1.8% in constant currency.

Jordan Neil Hymowitz - Philadelphia Financial Management of San Francisco LLC

Analyst

Okay. Second question is that you guys have $290 to $330 (38:05) and that includes a $0.30 loss in the first quarter with very negative pricing. Historically, the first quarter is much closer to breakeven or a slight profit. So if that would be the case next year and rolling for just the increased share buyback, you could get like a $380, $390 (38:23) number with no growth next year at all. Is that a reasonable way to think about things? Larry D. De Shon - Director, Chief Executive & Operating Officer: We're not ready to project numbers for 2017 yet. But certainly with the share repurchases that we have done and our forecasting for this year, we'd be looking at a decline of – probably works out to 5% or 6% in our share count next year, just as a result of having the full-year benefit of this year's share repurchases as opposed to only a part-year benefit this year. So that would certainly have some impact there on the numbers. But, beyond that, I'm not ready to get into the 2017 numbers yet. And, also, Jordan, thanks for your initial comment. We appreciate that.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Brian Johnson of Barclays. Your line is open. You may ask your question.

Brian A. Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Yes. Good afternoon. I mean, good morning. Could you comment a little bit more on the transition from program cars to risk cars? You mentioned program car pricing was not maybe optimal yet. We see the OEMs fighting over each other in the sedan marketplace to offer discounts. So why is it you think you're not getting good program pricing? And then with the risk cars they are what they are called and where are your concerns next year about the resale markets, as well as should demand not materialize, your ability to offload those cars? Larry D. De Shon - Director, Chief Executive & Operating Officer: Yes. I think, we feel pretty good about the way the model year 2017 negotiations have gone so far. And while the program cars weren't quite where we wanted them to be, we see an opportunity to mitigate any pressures there by moving a little bit more towards risk cars. And so I think my comments were really intended to provide a little bit of comfort that things are going all right. We don't expect to see the sort of increase we have this year at up 5% to 6%. It should be something less than that. And what we're doing is taking advantage of the relative pricing of risk to program cars to optimize, and that's what we've said in the past we would do, and we're doing it as we go through or by this year. And what that will do is take our risk number up to a little over 70%, and we're comfortable with that in light of the way we're looking to optimize our costs and balance our fleet, meet the demand that's out there, and provide us with some flexibility in how we manage our fleet over the course of the year.

Brian A. Johnson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And what about the risk vis-à-vis offloading them if you need to? Larry D. De Shon - Director, Chief Executive & Operating Officer: Yes, I think we feel pretty good about that. As you know, we've been working hard to try to expand and extend our alternative channels as we've added TrueCar, and we're continuing to grow our Ultimate Test Drive product as well. And we're looking at other ways in which to be able to market cars online and other channels as well. We're looking to open some lots to start testing later this third quarter. So, I think, between all of the different alternative channel options that we already have and that we're looking at going forward, we feel pretty good that we can remarket them next year. We've been adding to our remarketing team as well, and I think all that's coming together to allow us to start pushing more in those channels than what we have in the past.

Operator

Operator

Our final question comes from Anj Singh of Credit Suisse. You may ask your question. Anjaneya K. Singh - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. Could you talk about the leisure volumes increasing just 3% this quarter after increasing marketing expenses? It seems like after a long time of 6% to 7% growth, it just seems a little off. What are the factors that you think are driving this deceleration? I know you commented that you traded some volume for pricing. So perhaps how much volume do you think you gave up for pricing? And then as it relates to your guidance, could you speak to assumptions embedded for leisure and commercial volumes in the back half? David B. Wyshner - President & Chief Financial Officer: Sure. We were actually excited to be closing the gap a little bit between leisure and commercial volumes. There was a fairly a large gap in the first quarter as to how fast leisure grew relative to commercial. And we brought the two back together a little bit and the stronger performance on the commercial side had a little bit of an impact on the leisure side, particularly since we were very disciplined with respect to our fleet levels. So I would look at the somewhat lower growth in the second quarter as still being nice, positive growth at 3%, but being driven by a couple of other dynamics as well: one, where commercial volume was taking up a little bit more the fleet year-on-year than it did in the first quarter; and also a lot of discipline around fleet levels, running that fairly tight and being willing to pass on leisure business that wasn't as attractive. I don't think the impact was terribly great. I'd put it…

Operator

Operator

For closing remarks, the call is being turned back to Mr. Larry De Shon. Please go ahead, sir. Larry D. De Shon - Director, Chief Executive & Operating Officer: Okay. Before we close, I think it's important to reiterate the key takeaways from today's call. Pricing has improved dramatically, as fleet levels in the industry are better aligned than I've seen in quite some time. We have launched our new self-service initiative, Avis Now, and are investing in other technologies and innovation to drive our business forward. And we have raised the midpoint of our full-year adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings per share estimates. With that, I want to thank you for your time and your interest in our company.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect at this time.