Earnings Labs

Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY)

Q3 2022 Earnings Call· Wed, Mar 9, 2022

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

0:05 Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Casey’s General Store’s Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers’ presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]. 0:31 I would now like to hand the conference over to our speaker today, Brian Johnson, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Business Development. Please go ahead.

Brian Johnson

Analyst

0:39 Good morning and thank you for joining us to discuss the results from our third quarter ended January 31, 2022. I am Brian Johnson, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Business Development. With me today is Darren Rebelez, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Steve Bramlage, Chief Financial Officer. 0:56 Before we begin, I’ll remind you that certain statements made by us during this investor call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements include any statements relating to expectations for future periods, possible or assumed future results of operations, financial conditions, liquidity and related sources or needs, the company’s supply chain, business and integration strategies, plans and synergies, growth opportunities, performance at our stores, and the potential effects of COVID-19. 1:31 There are a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially from any future results expressed or implied by those forward-looking statements, including but not limited to the integration of the recent acquisitions, our ability to execute on our strategic plan or to realize benefits from the strategic plan, the impact and duration of COVID-19 and related governmental actions, as well as other risks, uncertainties and factors which are described in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, as filed with the SEC and available on our website. 2:06 Any forward-looking statements made during this call reflect our current views as of today with respect to future events, and Casey’s disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. A reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures referenced in this call, as well as a detailed breakdown of the operating expense increase for the third quarter, can be found on our website at www.caseys.com under the investor relations link. 2:37 With that said, I would now like to turn the call over to Darren to discuss our third quarter results. Darren?

Darren Rebelez

Analyst

2:43 Thanks Brian and good morning everyone. We’re looking forward to sharing our results in a moment, but I’d like to start by thanking our 43,000 Casey’s team members for their tireless efforts as we continue to overcome the ongoing challenges with COVID-19 and the resulting supply chain issues as well as weather conditions in our geography. Our team members have done an outstanding job navigating through these difficult situations and the team's ability to perform under the circumstances is something I'm especially proud of and grateful for. 3:14 At Casey's -- our purpose is to make life better for our communities and guests every day. As a rural Midwestern operator, we play a significant role in the towns we operate in, it is a privilege and a responsibility we take to heart. In February, we once again activated our hunger campaign in partnership with Feeding America. This partnership raises funds that support 52 local food banks in the communities where we operate. Hunger continues to be a real issue in our communities. We appreciate monster energy's partnership this -- in this year's campaign and all our team members and guests who supported the effort. The campaign raised over $500,000 and will fund over 5 million meals. In the third quarter, we closed our third strategic acquisition of the year with the 40 pilot stores in the Knoxville, Tennessee market, underscoring our commitment to accelerating unit growth. These stores will help us further build out our footprint in Tennessee and will be supplied from our existing distribution center in Terre Haute, Indiana. 4:18 I’d like to personally welcome those employees to the Casey's family. We're excited to become a part of the Knoxville community and appreciate your partnership as we integrate those stores into our network. We're also excited about…

Steve Bramlage

Analyst

8:14 Thank you Darren and good morning. Before I jump into the financials, I'd also like to take a minute to acknowledge the team given the strong performance throughout the entire business this quarter. The company fired on all cylinders from operating the stores, to managing fuel, merchandising the floor, generating momentum and guest engagement with our various marketing initiatives. All the while strongly collaborating with our partners to manage the inflationary and supply chain challenged environment. Total revenue for the quarter was approximately $3 billion, which is an increase of $1 billion or 52% from the prior year. Total inside sales rose 15.4% from the prior year to $1 billion. For the quarter grocery in general merchandise sales increased by $108 million to $733 million, an increase of 17.3% and prepared food and dispensed beverage sales rose by $29 million to $293 million, an increase of 10.9%. 9:20 Please note the reported figures are favorably impacted by 9% more stores operated on a year-over-year basis. Though I'll point out prepared food and dispensed beverage was less favorably impacted due to the timing of kitchen installations that are recent acquisitions. We won't start selling our prepared food menu in these new acquisitions until we finished remodeling the stores. Retail fuel sales were up $851 million in the third quarter, driven by a 19.9% increase of total gallon sold to 622 million gallons, as well as a 48% increase in the average retail price per gallon. The average retail price of fuel during this period was $3.14 a gallon and that compares to $2.12 a year ago. 10:12 As a reminder reported fuel results do not include the Buchanan Energy wholesale fuel business, which is included in the other revenue category and is responsible for the vast majority of the $53…

Darren Rebelez

Analyst

19:00 Thanks, Steve. As you can see our business is really starting to take off as the country gets closer to normal in the wake of the pandemic. Cases has shown tremendous resiliency throughout COVID, and we're positioned especially well to deliver future value to our shareholders through our strategic plan. As a reminder, the 3 pillars of our strategic plan are to reinvent the guest experience, create capacity through efficiencies, and be where the guest is to be disciplined to growth. All 3 pillars are supported by investing in and growing our talented team. 19:35 Our industry leading prepared food program is poised outperform. This category was more heavily impacted by COVID due to the disruption in daily commuter traffic, patterns compared to the traditional convenience store items like beer and tobacco. We believe the resurgence we've begun to experience this quarter is likely a sign of things to come. Casey's rolled out a successful breakfast relaunch with innovative new items such as our toast which signature handheld loaded breakfast burrito in bean-to-cup coffee. The result was a mid-teen percentage lift and morning daypart traffic and same store sales. This is a great example of the kind of culinary innovation you can expect from cases moving forward. 20:17 In addition to our new products, core menu items such as pizza slices were up 25% for the year and are not showing any signs of slowing down. Overall, as guest traffic improves. We're well positioned with our prepared food program to disproportionately benefit. The progress we've made reinvent the guest experience with our digital engagement will further bolster our business. Digital sales were up 11% in the third quarter, on top of a 95% increase in the same quarter last year. Our cases rewards enrollment continues to grow and now…

Operator

Operator

24:33 Thank you. [Operator Instructions] But you please limit yourself to one question and one follow up. Our first question comes from Karen Short with Barclays. Your line is open.

Karen Short

Analyst

24:48 Hi, thanks very much. Sorry for this short term question. But I'm wondering if you could just first start off by giving a little color on the price, the actual percent price increase that you took in this quarter, and then the impact the comp this quarter, and then the anticipated price increase that you will take I think you said in March, and how that will impact the comp and then I had one or two other bigger picture?

Steve Bramlage

Analyst

25:12 Yeah. Good morning, Karen. This is Steve, I'll start with that. We incurred about a 4% cost increase across the across the board if you think of our goods for resale and so over the course of the quarter, we took about a comparable percentage increase in price, they didn't all occur on the first day of the quarter to be fair, and it was kind of layered in over the course of the quarter. So the net was a little bit less than that. But we will roll into a 4% increase, and then the price increases that I mentioned coming in March, are going to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 5% to 6% on average, across most of -- most of our prepared food SKUs and again, those we won't absorb all of that in the current quarter. But annualized, that's what that number will be.

Karen Short

Analyst

26:12 Okay, so when we think about the gross margin decline in prepared foods, so -- so that would be a function, obviously, a lag in taking place, but within grocery, you would say that -- that was much more maps to the cost increase? Or maybe I'm just trying to understand how to think about gross margin beyond – beyond 4Q?

Steve Bramlage

Analyst

26:36 Yeah, I think your assumption is correct. We were -- I think lined up, the price increase in the cost increase was more closely aligned in the grocery business, because that business primarily is contractual for us and so as we worked through annual contract renegotiations, over the last couple months with our supplier partners, we had a pretty good sense of where those we're gonna land and we're able to act on retail adjustments, really about the same time that the cost started coming through the prepared food business is much less contractual and much more commodity oriented in nature and so it's a little bit tougher for us to line that up, exactly an enhanced tends to lag. But I would point out on the prepared food side, the LIFO charge just mechanically was much heavier impact in the quarter on that particular side of the business, just by the nature of how it -- how it works for us.

Operator

Operator

27:40 Thank you. Our next question comes from Ben Bienvenu with Stephens. Your line is open.

Ben Bienvenu

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open.

27:44 Hey, thanks. Good morning. Just following up on Karen's question there as it relates to the prepared food margins. Two part question, one, was the LIFO charge that you saw in the quarter, is that isolated to that quarter? Would you expect to take any subsequent charges associated with LIFO expense and then typically, the prepared food margin? I don't know that there's so much seasonality, but it does have a pattern of declining sequentially from 3Q to 4Q. I'm wondering if that would be the case again this year, just given that LIFO dynamic and then, just given kind of where we are on, as you say, the commodity backdrop?

Steve Bramlage

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open.

28:30 Yes. This is -- this is Steve, I'll – I’ll start with that on the mechanics of LIFO. We actually take LIFO charges almost every quarter, just the way that the accounting works, in a kind of non-inflationary environment, they tend to be de minimis and we don't obviously talk about them very often because of the environment that we're in and because so much of our grocery business is on a calendar year, the renegotiations all really began on January 1 and so the way you do that is you take a charge when they come through and so hence, that's a January 1 item. For us, our most -- our most typical LIFO item we adjust would be tobacco, because we tend to get those more frequently. But again, it's just -- it's more acute this year, given the size of the inflation, that comes through. To your question on seasonality of margins, for sure, the third quarter, just based on the weather in our geography tends to be our lowest margin business from -- from a prepared food standpoint. Fourth quarter is a little bit more of a blend, right as we move into the warmer months at the end of our fourth quarter, that's going to be accretive to margins as a as a general role.

Ben Bienvenu

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open.

29:54 Okay, great. Thank you. And then my second question is just related to your taking pricing relative to any elasticity you're seeing from your customer set. I know the -- the backdrop is changing rapidly kind of day-by-day and it's increasingly dynamic. What are you seeing if anything, with respect to price sensitivities from your customers, migration across categories in the floor – in the store, trading down, etc.? That'd be helpful to hear. Thank you.

Darren Rebelez

Analyst · Stephens. Your line is open.

30:29 Yes, and this is Darren, and I would say, generally speaking, we've seen – we’ve seen good momentum in the business as you can see from the inside sales and -- and that is a blend of both increased velocity from a unit standpoint as well as price. So, we're pretty balanced at this point in that respect. But one thing I would say is, we have seen a ramp more recently with, with the private brand products and you can see that mix start to shift a bit. And so we probably are experiencing some trade down. But that really accrues to our benefit, because the penny profit in those private brand items is actually higher than in the national brand. So and that's per our strategy with private brands. So we actually, we don't mind seeing that and like I mentioned earlier in the narrative that we've hit -- right around that 5% exit rate goals. So we’re a couple months ahead of schedule on that and that I think, is important from that mix shifting.

Operator

Operator

31:34 Thank you. Our next question comes from Kelly Bania with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

BenjaminWood

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

31:40 Hi, guys. This is Ben Wood on for Kelly Bania. Thank you for taking our question. I first wanted to dig in on store growth by our math, you'll need to add about 80 stores in 2023 to hit your 2023 goal, which is down significantly from the 225 stores this year. So does the lumpiness of acquisitions this year limit your ability to grow next year? If not wondering how you're thinking about potential upside to target that target store number in 2023. Is another 200 stores possible in this environment?

Darren Rebelez

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

32:12 Ben, this is Darren. I'll start so answer your second question, I guess is, the -- the acquisitions we bought this year aren't going to impact our ability to do more deals or to grow the store base next year. And we haven't given guidance for fiscal ’23 yet, but we are highly confident that we'll hit our three year commitment of the 345 stores over the three-year period. So we don't have any concerns there. And, and so -- so really, that's it and with respect to could we do another 200 store growth here. A lot of that has to do with acquisitions and in the timing of those things. So we're not the ones that -- that ultimately control when somebody is for sale, and at what price. But we are very active in the market. We have a dedicated M&A team, and they're having a lot of conversations right now and like I mentioned before, this current -- current environment, it's just becoming more and more difficult for smaller operators to get through the day, frankly, let alone to be able to do effectively compete. So, we -- we see a pretty frothy M&A market. But we're going to remain disciplined about where we buy the type of assets that we buy, and what we pay for those assets. So this is one of the reasons we like to have organic growth along with M&A capabilities. So we don't force ourselves into a box of having to buy assets that we wouldn't otherwise like or overpay for those assets, just to keep the growth rate moving in the right direction.

Benjamin Wood

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

33:54 Okay, thank you. That's, that's very helpful. And then just a quick one on the breakfast day part. I know you guys mentioned a little bit, but could you -- where's the breakfast date part relative to 2019? Just trying to figure out the 17% increase in same store sales? Like how much of that is the new items from the new menu? Or how much of that it's just traffic pattern recovery?

Darren Rebelez

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

34:19 Well, what I would tell you is I think the guest traffic is a result of the menu, the menu launch we've got we have new product news, we did put some media behind it, and we have some unique items. The toast which item is something leverages are made from scratch pizza dough, it's -- it's highly craveable, it's highly affordable [ph], it's value price, and it's something unique that you can't get anywhere else. And we upgraded our coffee program at the same time. So we put those cup that combination together, we started to see some improve traffic in the morning day part and then that -- that benefited the entire store because not -- not everybody gets a prepared food item. But we sold the toast which sandwiches, we sold the load of breakfast burritos, and people will buy other items across the store to complement those food products. So I think that really accrued our benefit. Like I said we saw mid-teens increase in both traffic and sales during the morning day part.

Operator

Operator

35:21 Thank you. Our next question comes from Chuck Cerankosky with Northcoast Research. Your line is open.

Chuck Cerankosky

Analyst · Northcoast Research. Your line is open.

35:31 Good morning, everyone's, great quarter. I want to talk a little bit about kitchens. You have a schedule you can provide with us as you add kitchens to the acquired properties?

Darren Rebelez

Analyst · Northcoast Research. Your line is open.

35:44 You know, Chuck, I don't have a schedule in front of me right now that I could share with you. And we can follow up on that. But suffice it to say where we put those kitchens in as soon as we can get permitting available and in contractors lined up now we've done roughly 40 of the Buchanan Energy store so far and I'll tell you, we're really happy with what we're seeing in the performance of those kitchens. If you look at the Omaha market, in particular, where were Buches, I would tell you at an -- I would what I would consider an above average prepared food program relative to the industry and we've already seen that we're more than doubled the prepared food volume in those stores in Omaha where our brand is more known. 36:31 Now, if you go out into the Chicago suburbs, where we're a little less known, we also have nearly doubled the prepared food volume in those stores, just at the lower rate than what -- what I would expect, our normal run rate to be and so that continues to grow. So we're having great success in those conversions. But it'll -- it'll be probably the bulk of this next calendar year. There will be remodeling kitchens in the -- in the Circle-K and in the -- in the pilot acquisition, in particular to get all those stores converted.

Chuck Cerankosky

Analyst · Northcoast Research. Your line is open.

37:07 So you've got 40, done out of all the acquired stores. Is that a good way to look at it?

Darren Rebelez

Analyst · Northcoast Research. Your line is open.

37:14 Yeah, in the -- in the Buchanan energy, one of where we're actually remodeling some of the Circle-K stores as we speak and then we just literally finished the changing control at the pilot stores recently. So we -- we really haven't gotten started on that process yet.

Operator

Operator

37:34 Thank you. Our next question comes from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs, your line is open.

Bonnie Herzog

Analyst · Goldman Sachs, your line is open.

37:38 All right. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I wanted to ask you guys, certainly about fuel margins, which have remained elevated. And I think you mentioned they are trending in the mid 30, CPG range quarter-to-date. But, as we look at the past few days, crude has gone up very sharply and the outlook suggests is going to keep going. So just curious, could you give us a sense of where fuel margins are trending? Honestly, just even in the last few days or a couple of weeks? And, and if in fact, they've turned negative, which I've seen in a few places, so I'd be curious to hear that. And then on fuel gallons, given record levels of prices at the pump, have you guys seen any evidence of consumers, simply not filling up their tanks, and then and or decrease conversion into your stores in the last couple of weeks?

Darren Rebelez

Analyst · Goldman Sachs, your line is open.

38:37 Hey, Bonnie. This is Darren and I'll try to unpack all that. I'd be curious to know, where you're hearing about negative fuel margins, because it's certainly not anything that we're seeing or experiencing here. What we've seen so far, and I'll just kind of box this over the last couple of days is that certainly, underlying cost of fuel has gone up precipitously, we've also been able to take price on the street pretty aggressively. And so we've been able to really balance that, that that margin out at this point. And from a gallon standpoint, this will seem counterintuitive, but when -- when you see prices rapidly increasing like we have over the last week, the consumer behavior tends to be more of aggressive buying, as opposed to not aggressive buying because people are afraid it's going to be $0.20 more a gallon tomorrow than it is today. So we're actually seeing the opposite effect happened where our gallons had increased far beyond where our current trend line had been going prior to all this happening. 39:50 Now, at some point when it hits a peak, people are going to have full gas tanks and we'll see a week or so lag of fuel volume, and they'll start to normalize again. So that's kind of the short-term outlook. But I want to talk a little bit more broadly about this situation and put it into some -- into some context because I think what we're seeing in the headlines everything else is -- is a little bit of hand wringing. And so when you think about $4 a gallon gas, it's been a -- it's been a long time since we hit $4 gallon retails in the US. But last time was in July of 2008. Certainly…

Bonnie Herzog

Analyst · Goldman Sachs, your line is open.

42:25 Thank you for that. That's super helpful and great color. And a lot of that makes sense. I guess the only other consideration is the low income consumer this year to see how that trends as the year progresses. Maybe one final question for me just maybe a high level question on your next fiscal year. I know you're, you're not yet giving guidance. But, given the expectations for crew to stay, at elevated levels this year. How do you guys feel about your ability to deliver top quintile EBITDA growth for your fiscal year ‘23?

Darren Rebelez

Analyst · Goldman Sachs, your line is open.

43:05 Yeah, Bonnie, like event -- like events, we haven't given any guidance yet. But we're still very confident in our ability to deliver on that commitment. We've got a lot going on from the merchandising standpoint. And still, I think, this situation aside, you know, that's, I do believe that's a little bit more of a short-term situation, when you look at how crude oil is trading right now in the futures market, the market is backward, dated pretty heavily, which implies that the traders are believing that crude is actually going to come down and in the next several months versus go up. So we'll have to see how that plays out. But I think the industry is still, in a situation where the operating costs to run the business are just structurally higher. And because of the fragmentation of the industry, they still have to extract higher margin to be able to offset higher operating costs, and that -- that's going to happen through retail fuel pricing. We've seen it over the course of the last several years with COVID. We've seen it in the extreme when demand destruction really accelerated at the height of COVID. We saw fuel margins accelerate at a really aggressive rate. So we believe that those margins are going to persist and then we layer on everything else that we've got going on from our merchandising perspective, and we're very confident in our ability to deliver those that type of growth and EBITDA over the next several years.

Operator

Operator

44:37 Thank you. Our next question comes from Anthony [Indiscernible] company, your line is open.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

44:43 Good morning and thank you for taking the question. So in terms of the operating expense guidance, it was certainly encouraging to see that you guys were able to reaffirm that guidance, even with the retail fuel prices going up and likely to hurt the credit card fees. So what's driving that? I know in the quarter, they just reported you had a 2% reduction in store hours. Is that expected to continue? Or are there any other factors at play as far as operating expense management?

Steve Bramlage

Analyst

45:11 Hey, Anthony. Good morning. This is Steve. I'll start with that. Nothing -- nothing has changed on our end at all regarding our OpEx expectation and for things we control in the quarter, so we did a really good job. Managing the hours within the stores I'm confident we will continue to do a really good job managing hours in the store there's a lot of focus on efficiency within the operating organization today. We naturally will expand some hours seasonally. But we've incorporated that already, we know, the wage rates that are prevailing in our markets are we're competitive in those markets, I think we have a good, a very good handle on what we're going to need to pay in that regard. I'd remind you, in the prior year, we did take some one off impairment charges associated with putting new equipment into the store, etc, that's part of the reason, our percentage will tick down in the fourth quarter. So that sort of thing will not recur. Anyways and so I do believe that the only real variable here relates to the -- relates to the credit card fees, which is associated with retail prices, I think we're covered it at a $4 a gallon number in our range and to the extent that would tick up, our credit card fees will pick up and your guests on that, which would be as good as ours. But I don't think there's significant dollar risk associated with it, as we sit here today at this point in the quarter.

Darren Rebelez

Analyst

46:43 And Anthony, I just build on one of the things that Steve mentioned about the operations team and in managing the hours is they are labor productivity is really gone up a lot are, we were from a gross profit dollar per labor hour perspective, we increased productivity by 14% in the quarter and so that team has really done a nice job. And at the same time, you saw the sales growth in the traffic growth. So they were -- they were able to really manage the controllables and be very efficient and still deliver a great guest experience and deliver on the sales expectations. So very happy with that team. And in as Steve mentioned, we don't see any reason for that to backslide. And, and that's the most significant part of our OpEx, so we believe we have that well under control.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

47:34 Got it? Yeah, but thanks for that the color and then switching over, it's just to the prepared food side. So, given how successful you have been with the breakfast menu changes, are you planning to do any notable changes to the rest of your menu?

Darren Rebelez

Analyst

47:49 Yeah, Anthony. We've got -- we've got a lot of different things in the works. We're not prepared to talk about any of those today in a sort of detail. But absolutely, the prepared food team and the culinary team in particular, are always looking at innovation and optimization as part of their mandate. And so yes, we definitely have some things coming, but not ready to talk about that at this point.

Operator

Operator

48:17 Thank you. Our next question comes from Krisztina Katai with Deutsche Bank, your line is open.

Krisztina Katai

Analyst · Deutsche Bank, your line is open.

48:22 Hey, good morning, guys. And congrats on a good quarter. I just wanted to start on fuel, when we're looking at your price gaps versus peers, and just thinking about the smaller operators that do have to raise their prices to offset, the rising cost of their operations? Are you finding that your price gaps are stable? Are they widening in the current environment? And could that be a net benefit for you, especially when we're thinking about, you layering in your loyalty program to really communicate with the customer and stay top of mind?

Steve Bramlage

Analyst · Deutsche Bank, your line is open.

48:55 Yes, Christina, when, when we look at that we look at our prices as is our differential to the low price in the market, and to the high price and then the average price and so what we're seeing is, we're maintaining our delta versus the low price in the market. So we maintain our competitive position, we are starting to see that differential versus the high price in the market starting to widen out a bit and that -- that really typically is a reflection of the smaller operators because they need to extract more margin. And so they tend to do that. So from that perspective, we would be able to gain some share and what for – and what we've seen based on opus data and from our public company peers is that we are gaining share our -- when we've normalized our fourth quarter to a calendar quarter and look at our public company peers. The other two they've reported we're down in same store gallons versus the prior year and we were up nearly 5%. So we believe that even among some of the larger operators we are taking share and fuel, the certainly versus some of the smaller operators we are as well.

Krisztina Katai

Analyst · Deutsche Bank, your line is open.

50:09 Got it. That's really helpful and just -- it sounds like, you feel really good about your business but maybe just, tackling if you could talk a little bit about the health of your core customer, you implemented some price increases in January, you said another 5% to 6% coming in March. Just how are they feeling financially and how are you planning your business for any kind of a potential pullback in spending from -- from the customer in response to some of the high inflation that we're seeing?

Steve Bramlage

Analyst · Deutsche Bank, your line is open.

50:41 Yes, right now, we think the consumer is in pretty good shape, about 60% of our -- our guests make over $50,000 a year, and, in a lot of those have seen some of the -- the most accelerated wage increases. So the -- so they're actually making a lot more than they have historically now, they're also having to spend more in an inflationary environment. But so far, we haven't seen any dramatic shifts in -- in behavior among our core guests. So we think we're okay there. From -- from a future looking perspective, there's -- there's a couple things to keep in mind. One is that we do have our private label portfolio, which is really starting to take off and really provides a more affordable alternative for people they're seeking deeper value. The other thing that tends to happen and in our industry in times like this is that we are the beneficiary of trade downs from higher or more expensive forms of retail. So in particular, in prepared foods. 51:45 So if you think about our prepared food offering today, it is already just naturally more value-oriented relative to QSR, fast casual, and certainly then, in full service dining, when you think about a specialty pizzas, an example, a whole pie that can feed 3 to 4 people being at around $16, $50, $17 a pie, that's a -- that's a really great value for a family. 52:13 In our breakfast menu, you can get a breakfast very easily for under $5 and so when you compare that to QSR, and other restaurant concepts, were very much an affordable trade down option. So we have historically seen that our prepared food platform benefits disproportionately in this kind of environment as consumers start to see more value.

Operator

Operator

52:39 Thank you. Our next question comes from John Royall with JPMorgan, your line is open.

John Royall

Analyst · JPMorgan, your line is open.

52:43 Hey, guys, thanks for taking my question. So I had a couple of questions. I'm kind of downside risks in the economy and things like that, which I think you've mostly addressed. I guess, the only remaining thing is there are some out there, a lot of commodity and with better forecasting, these $120 oil levels to persist for some time, or even worse than you depending on the geopolitics. So just go through how you would expect, I think it's relatively unprecedented types of levels that we can see -- that we haven't in the past. How would you expect a steel business to perform? Obviously, we'd have adhesive demand, what would you expect on the margin side would margin kind of start to come in a bit in that scenario, where you start to see demand come off from the consumer [Indiscernible]?

Steve Bramlage

Analyst · JPMorgan, your line is open.

53:39 John, again, I'll try to put the crude oil price in perspective, like I did the gasoline business. So back in 2008, when -- when we hit that $4.06 peak and gasoline crude oil is actually at $140 a barrel. And in those dollars, and so today's dollars, it's about $183. So, again, if we persist at $120, that's expensive, but not -- not nearly towards a peak from a historic perspective and I and I think more importantly, from to answer your question on the margin is, regardless of whether crude oils at $120 or $140 or $180, or not, the structural situation we have in this industry isn't changing, underlying costs operate, this business is still going up, it's still getting more expensive for the smaller operators to continue to survive. And so retail prices are going to support expanded fuel margin to compensate for those costs. And until the point in time where we actually see some demand destruction, I think that dynamic is not going to change. And like I said before, I believe that we're not going to get any sort of meaningful demand destruction, vis-à-vis retail prices until we get closer to $5 a gallon and maybe even then we have to take over that before we start to see any meaningful impact there.

John Royall

Analyst · JPMorgan, your line is open.

55:10 Understood. Thanks very much.

Steve Bramlage

Analyst · JPMorgan, your line is open.

55:14 Thank you.

Operator

Operator

55:15 Thank you. I’m currently showing no further questions. I’d like to turn the call back over to Darren Rebelez for closing remarks.

Darren Rebelez

Analyst

55:21 All right, thank you. And thanks for taking the time today to join us on the call. I'd also like to thank our team members once again for their efforts this quarter. So we've had a great year so far and we look to close out fiscal ’22 on a high note. Fortunately, we demonstrate our ability deliver results on our long-term strategic plan and fiscal year outlook in both normal times and during a global pandemic. And I'm confident, we will continue to drive long-term shareholder value. Thank you everyone and have a great morning.

Operator

Operator

55:52 This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.