Earnings Labs

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 22, 2015

$818.42

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2015 Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen-only mode and will be open up for the floor for your questions and comments after the presentation. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mike DeWalt. Sir, the floor is yours.

Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division

Management

Thank you very much, and good morning, and welcome, everyone, to our third quarter conference call. I'm Mike DeWalt, Caterpillar's Vice President of Finance Services. And we have quite a few people with us today on the call. Doug Oberhelman, our Chairman and CEO; Brad Halverson, our Group President and CFO; Jim Umpleby, our Group President responsible for Energy & Transportation; Rob Charter, our Group President responsible for Dealer Support; and somebody you'll probably be getting to know a lot better, Amy Campbell. She, effective November 1, becomes our Director of Investor Relations. So we're going to do today's conference call a little bit differently than we have in the past. We're going be going through a slide deck. And if you don't have that in front of you right now, it's available on our website, caterpillar.com, and it's where the conference call link is for the webcast and it's under Events and Presentations and it's also in the Quarterly Results section. So I'll go through the forward-looking statements and if you need to get that, please do. So this call is copyrighted by Caterpillar, Inc. and any use, recording, or transmission of any portion of the call without the expressed written consent of Caterpillar is strictly prohibited. If you'd like a copy of today's call transcript, we will be posting it in the Investor section of our caterpillar.com website and that will be in the section labeled Results Webcast. This morning, we'll be discussing forward-looking information that involves risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information. A discussion of some of those factors that either individually or in the aggregate could make actual results differ materially from our projections, that can be found in our cautionary statements under Item 1A,…

Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division

Management

Okay. So with that, we're ready for Q&A.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The first question is coming from Andrew Casey. Please announce your affiliation and pose your question.

Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Wells Fargo Securities. Good morning and thanks for the new presentation format. First, I know you're forecasting mining to be down again in 2016, but I'm going to take the bait on the comment at the bottom of slide eight that was related to improved resource machine utilization in the last three months. And I know – I think you have an internal database, but it may not stretch back decades. I'm wondering do you have a sense of the typical lag between what you are seeing in the utilization rate and when parts may start to show up?

Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division

Management

Good question, Andy. And honestly I don't know the answer to that. To your point, we haven't been gathering that kind of data that long over cycles before. And this has been a – mining has really been a tough industry over – well, since mid-2012 actually when all the order levels started to decline. And there's not been much in the way of good news. I mean we're tracking truck utilization and we're tracking parked fleet. We really haven't seen much change in parked fleet. It's leveled out. Not really got better or worse. And we started seeing this trend a couple of months ago. And we've kind of watched it each month directionally. And it seems like there is – this is hours in a day worked by a machine. And it's gone up each month for the last three months. Hopefully that's the beginning of a trend but to your earlier point, we don't have a long history of tracking this. So I would encourage you not to read too much into that. Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, I want to just add here that I'm – we're watching everything all this data very closely. I'm not reading much into that. The first signal I think we'll see and feel is when we see high hour trucks from our mining customers come in for rebuild at our dealers. We have not seen that yet. And that will be the first signal that when that happens that the replacement cycle, although that won't be new trucks but the replacement cycle for parts and aftermarket, and then the rebuild of those trucks begins. And that's really, I think, the most concrete signal we'd see that we'd be past the bottom. And right now we haven't seen that but believe me we're watching all of these and are very close contact with our mining dealers that interface with our mining customers.

Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thanks and I guess... Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks. Can we take our next question, please?

Operator

Operator

The next question is coming from Ted Grace. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.

Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst

Susquehanna. Thank you. Good morning, guys.

Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division

Management

Good morning.

Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst

Mike, I was hoping to maybe take a step back from Andy's question and talk about kind of the 2016 revenue expectations more broadly. I'm wondering if you could maybe book end the 5% guidance, what would be kind of the optimistic scenario. What would be the more cautious scenario? And then I was just wondering if we could step through maybe some of the segments and understand...

Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division

Management

Sure.

Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst

...within Construction what you expect in the developed markets versus developing?

Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division

Management

Yeah, I'll do as much of that as I can. First off I would say when we say about 5%, I mean that's kind of our base case. It presumes a very modest improvement in kind of global growth. Nothing that would be significant enough to really drive an upturn. So I would say our view is that's pretty balanced. I think if we got some recovery in China or better U.S. growth or maybe more energy demand that could be – those could be positives. Some kind of a recession or a mistake by the Fed or the ECB that kind of drove down the economy I guess could be on the downside. We're also not expecting much in the way of commodity prices. Kind of by and large – I'm not saying exactly where we are today, but by and large around the levels that we're at today on commodities is pretty much what we're thinking around next year. And that's the same for currencies. We're not expecting the dollar to get materially stronger or weaker. So I think our view right now is it's pretty balanced. I think in construction, we have it – let's just say probably reasonably flat to slightly down in most places in the world. Brazil is very weak. China is very weak, but they were in 2015 as well. In fact, the business is down so far in those two countries in particular that just the size and scope for it to have much significance in terms of a dollar decline next year is a bit diminished. And I think – so I think Construction, not a lot of change from kind of where we've been this year. I think in terms of mining it's just a really tough environment out there,…

Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst

Just as it relates to the Middle East with lower oil prices, some other machinery companies have talked about challenges there. Should we expect that? Do you think that is a risk to that part of the world? And I will jump back in queue after that. Donald James Umpleby - Group President-Energy & Transportation Group: Yeah, yeah, hi. This is Jim Umpleby. We really don't see that as a major risk, as Mike mentioned earlier, the major declines we've seen have been in well servicing and drilling. That's primarily a North American story. So I don't see a major risk there.

Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division

Management

Yeah.

Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst

And in Construction?

Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division

Management

I think kind of the same thing. Probably some downside risk, particularly in places like Saudi Arabia where construction is – they tend to have invested and it has held up. I'm going to sort of pre-ask, or answer another question, or ask Jim to answer it. I know via e-mail we've gotten several questions on Solar. I think there's a general concern that investors have about our Turbine business. It's an excellent business. It's done very well and this morning we talked about it being down next year as a part of Energy & Transportation but less than 10%. So I think I'll pitch that back to Jim to maybe add a little more color on. Donald James Umpleby - Group President-Energy & Transportation Group: Sure, Mike. As we've said, Energy & Transportation is expected to be down between 5% and 10% in 2016 and we've said that the primary driver of that decline is oil and gas. Again as we've said, the primary driver there is reduced sales into drilling and well servicing. Our Solar business is made up of three major categories, oil and gas, power generation and customer services. That oil and gas business can really be separated between oil production, which is primarily generator set that we sell offshore and that business is certainly down. Projects have been delayed and we've seen that translate into lower sales. On the other hand our gas compression business at Solar is doing quite well. A lot of that is driven by the very robust activity in large interstate pipelines being built primarily in North America and that's really being fed by a combination of fuel switching to natural gas. And also the fact that the new LNG export facilities have to be fed. So again that business is quite strong. The customer service is part of the business as you all know I think an important part of Solar's business. While oil companies are starting to squeeze our maintenance budgets, turbines are not being taken out of operation. They're still operating. That still requires parts and overhaul and field service. So that business is expected to hold up fairly well as is our power generation business.

Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst

Super helpful, guys. Good luck this quarter. Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Okay. Thanks. Can we take our next question, please?

Operator

Operator

The next question is coming from Jamie Cook. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question. Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Hi. Thanks for the question. I guess just sorry, back on E&T. You talked about your sales decline. I guess when I looked at the profitability of the quarter within E&T, I was surprised your margins held up as well because I think there is a broader concern that that business is overearning with where oil and gas was. So, I guess can you, Jim, help us think about how we think about the profitability in 2006 (sic) [2016] (50:50)? Because I think there is a broader concern out there that what we saw in Resource margins and where it is today that that same thing could happen in E&T? Thanks.

Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division

Management

Yeah, I'm going to start out with that, Jamie. First off in the quarter, the big negative for E&T was definitely volume in mix – or volume on sales. But we also had a fair amount of cost reduction, particularly in period costs. I think if we look at next year in terms of at least operating margin rates and I think this will go kind of to the heart of one of the points that Doug made earlier and that is the restructuring that we're doing. I mean, we're looking at another $750 million of cost reduction next year and that will be spread across all of our segments. And I think should be certainly a help for margins that's reasonably significant. I think Energy & Transportation is a pretty profitable business in most all of the underlying sectors, not just oil and gas. Oil and gas is definitely a good business. And you'll see – in our third quarter of this year's results, you're already seeing the major drop now in the third quarter from the recip, well servicing and drilling reductions. Those are in the third quarter numbers already. There's nothing really weird or unusual that's kind of propping up the third quarter that I know of. Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): So is it, I mean margins in the low double-digit range next year? Is that unreasonable given what you said?

Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division

Management

We'll talk more about profit, I think, maybe when we get to the end of the year. We still have a lot – a little bit of work to do on our sort of profit planning by segment and playing through all of these restructuring actions by segment. So I'll defer that question maybe until January when we're ready to talk a little more about profit next year. Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): All right. Thank you. I'll get back in queue.

Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division

Management

All right. Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Next question, please?

Operator

Operator

The next question is coming from Jerry Revich. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question. Jerry David Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Good morning. It's Goldman Sachs. Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning, Jerry. Jerry David Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Mike, Jim, just to dig in on the Solar discussion, you have done really well in North America on the pipeline side. Can you just talk about, based on the inquiries that you have, how the regional mix of the business could evolve over the next couple of years? So we have been through a pretty good build out in the U.S. And I know you have some visibility on larger projects in other regions, so maybe you could step us through. Donald James Umpleby - Group President-Energy & Transportation Group: Yeah, this is Jim, again. Certainly, Solar's business is quite diverse geographically. We're active in all parts of the world. If you look at the specific elements of their business, oil production is an area which has been very dispersed for Solar. Most of that business is outside the U.S. On the gas compression side, again, right now, most of that activity is in North America, Canada, the U.S. and Mexico. There is some gas compression activity in other parts of the world, but the big meaningful projects are, in fact, in North America. And as we look at our backlog and quotation activity, it does support our outlook for 2016. So, again, that takes into account what's happening geographically in all different parts of the world. Jerry David Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Okay. Thank you. And then separate question just on the restructuring program, I'm wondering if you can talk about how the manufacturing footprint by region…

Operator

Operator

The next question is coming from Ann Duignan. Please announce your affiliation then pose your question.

Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Yeah, good morning. JPMorgan. My question is more around clarification. You highlighted the fact that you can achieve $750 million in cost reductions going into 2016. And then you talk a little bit about mix being a negative of $500 million going into next year. Just conceptually, you are not suggesting that the restructuring savings can more than offset the decline in revenue and the decremental profits, are you?

Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division

Management

Well, what we're suggesting is not the impact of volume. I mean, $2.5 billion will have a variable margin decline, or 5%, will have a decline in margin as a result of volume. What we're saying is what's coming out is going to be a little richer margin mix than kind of normal. And that's that $250 million headwind. That's kind of the difference between average margin of what's coming out and what we think is going to come out. We will have cost reduction next year. Just from – the restructuring is not the only thing we're working on. But we do expect substantial, as Doug said, $750 million of reduction just from this restructuring action. But volume will definitely be a negative.

Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

So net-net, that steps down in profitability.

Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division

Management

Yeah, I don't think, again, we're not really talking profit on this call. But I think it would be a pretty safe bet on a 5% decline in sales with negative mix that that puts a lot of downward pressure on profit. But our $750 million of cost reduction and the other cost actions that we're working on that I would call kind of more normal, they push it in the other direction. But I think net-net, it'll still be down. Douglas R. Oberhelman - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: And I'd still aim you, Ann, at the increment/decrement goals that we have. So if we have a step down in sales obviously our normal decrement down would apply. And that's our goal for 2016. And then we have mix and cost reduction, the rest of it, as Mike has talked about. But I don't want to lose sight of that, because that's our internal planning as well.

Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. And then just on those lines, what are you baking in for pricing for next year?

Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division

Management

Yeah, again, Ann, we're not – I'll make a comment without being too specific. Again, we're not done with the financial plan completely yet. But I think given what's happened with the strength of the dollar, you saw in this quarter we had a little bit of negative price, about 0.5% for the company. And that's gotten a little worse as the years gone on, and I think partly what we're seeing is some of the impact of the stronger dollar on the places where it's a little harder to measure, but it provides competitive pressure. I don't see that easing, so I would not be overly optimistic about price realization next year. I also want to clarify something I said a minute ago that was wrong. You said $500 million on mix impact. That's right. I said $250 million back and I was just thinking the difference between the $750 million of restructuring and the $500 million of mix is. That piece of it is still a net negative – or net positive. Sorry, just wanted to clarify. I agree with your comment. We do think mix is going be negative, around $500 million.

Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Great. Thanks for the clarification. I kind of figured that, but thank you.

Michael Lynn DeWalt - Vice President, Finance Services Division

Management

All right. We're slightly over on time. Our presentation ran a little longer than our historical preamble has been, but I think it was good to clarify things. So with that, we will wrap up. Thank you very much.