Earnings Labs

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL)

Q1 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, Nov 25, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Cracker Barrel Fiscal 2015 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today’s conference is being recorded and will be available for replay today from 2 PM Eastern through December 10th at 2 PM Eastern by dialing 719-457-0820 and entering pass code 7975757. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I’d like to turn the conference over to Ms. Jessica Hazel. Please go ahead ma’am.

Jessica Hazel

Management

Thank you, Tom. Good morning, and welcome to Cracker Barrel's first quarter fiscal 2015 conference call and webcast. This morning, we issued a press release announcing our first quarter and our updated guidance for the 2015 fiscal year. In this press release and on this call, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures for the prior fiscal year, adjusted to exclude charges and tax effects related to proxy contests expenses. The Company believes that excluding these charges and tax effects from its financial results provides information that may be more indicative of the Company's ongoing operating performance while improving comparability to prior periods. This information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for financial information prepared in accordance with GAAP. The last page of the press release includes a reconciliation from the non-GAAP information to the GAAP financials. The press release can be found in the Investors section of our Web site, crackerbarrel.com. In that press release and during this call, statements may be made by management of their beliefs and expectations of the Company's future operating results or expected future events. These are what are known as forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties, and in many cases are beyond management's control and may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. We urge caution to our listeners and readers in considering forward-looking statements and information. Many of the factors that could affect results are summarized in the cautionary description of risks and uncertainties found at the end of this morning's press release and are described in detail in our reports that we filed with or furnished to the SEC. We urge you to read this information carefully. We also remind you that we do not comment on earnings estimates made by other parties. In addition, any guidance or outlook we provide or statements we make regarding trends speak only as of the date they’re given and we do not update or express continuing comfort with our guidance, outlook or trends, except in broadly disseminated disclosures such as this morning's press release, filings with the SEC or as otherwise required by law. On this call with me this morning are Cracker Barrel's President and CEO, Sandy Cochran; Senior Vice President and CFO, Larry Hyatt; and Senior Vice President of Marketing, Chris Ciavarra. Sandy will begin with a review of the business and Larry will review the financials and outlook. We will then open-up the call for questions for Sandy, Larry and Chris. We ask that you please limit your questions to matters relating to the Company's performance, outlook and plans. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Cracker Barrel's President and CEO, Sandy Cochran. Sandy?

Sandy Cochran

Management

Thank you, Jessica. Good morning, everyone and thanks for joining us today. I’m pleased to report that our fiscal year is off to a good start. As you saw in this morning’s press release we finished our first quarter with strong financial results. Our total revenue and operating margin exceeded our expectations which we believe reflects our continued focus on enhancing the guest experience and operational improvements. We saw guest traffic growth in the quarter and posted increases in both restaurant and retail sales. Once again, our sales and traffic growth outpaced the Knapp-Track casual-dining index making this the 12th consecutive quarter of outperformance. Our guest survey scores during the quarter increased in many key categories including overall value and tend to return and likely to recommend. Our operating income for the first quarter was approximately 18% higher than the prior year when adjusted for prior year proxy contest expenses. In addition, our diluted earnings per share grew more than 16% versus the adjusted prior year quarter. Larry will be taking you through the detail of our financial results for the quarter, but before he does, I’d like to share highlights and maybe update you on some of our plans for the remainder of the fiscal year. This quarter, our management team remains focused on our long-term strategic plan to enhance the core business, expand the footprint of our stores, and extend the Cracker Barrel brand outside of our four walls. During our last earnings call in September, I outlined our business priorities for the fiscal year and I will recap this briefly and then cover each in more detail. First, extend the reach of the Cracker Barrel brand to drive traffic and sales in both our restaurant and retail businesses. Second, optimize average guest check to the implementation of…

Larry Hyatt

Management

Good morning everyone, and thank you Sandy. I’d like to begin by discussing our financial performance for the first quarter of fiscal 2015 and then our outlook for the 2015 fiscal year. For the first quarter of fiscal 2015, we reported net income of $34 million or $1.42 per diluted share, a 16.4% increase compared to $1.22 in adjusted earnings per diluted share in the prior year quarter. Our revenue in the quarter was $683.4 million, a 5.3% increase over the $649.1 million in the prior year first quarter. Our restaurant revenues increased 4.7% to $546.7 million and our retail revenues increased 7.5% to $136.7 million. Our comparable store restaurant sales increased 3.3%, as traffic increased 0.8%, and average check increased 2.5%. The increase in average check reflects menu price increases of approximately 2.1% and a favorable mix impact of 0.4%. Our comparable store retail sales increased 6.1% for the quarter. Our total cost of goods sold in the quarter was 32.5% of revenue, an 80 basis point increase over the prior year quarter. Our restaurant cost of goods was 28.1% of restaurant sales, compared to 27.3% in the prior year quarter. This 80 basis point increase was primarily due to a shift to higher cost menu items, food commodity inflation, and higher food waste partially offset by our menu price increase. On a constant mix basis, our food commodity costs were up approximately 3.7% in the quarter compared to the prior year quarter as costs for beef, diary, and sea food were up sharply from last year. Our retail cost of goods was 50.4% of retail sales, compared to 49.8% in the prior year quarter. This 60 basis point increase was primarily a result of increased mark-downs partially offset by lower freight expense and higher initial mark-ups. Our retail…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir [Operator Instructions] We’ll take our first question from Jeff Farmer with Wells Fargo.

Jeffrey Farmer

Analyst

Thank you. As the market seems to appreciate judging by how your stock has behaved. Historically there’s been a fairly strong relationship between changes in gas prices or, I guess, more specifically how every mile is driven and your traffic trends. I was curious what your latest thinking is on that relationship, meaning, is it as strong as it’s been in prior years? And is there a lag in terms of weeks or months before your restaurant see the greatest traffic response through those changes in gas prices, meaning, can we see even greater response next quarter or this quarter?

Sandy Cochran

Management

Well, why don’t I start that off, and I’ll let Larry maybe add to it. So, first of all you’re right, that we have the gas prices helps. However the correlation that we see strongest is miles driven which of course then is connected to gas prices. But the gas price really speaks to disposable income from consumers. So certainly during the quarter we saw the benefit of lower gas prices, and would hope to see continued benefit if gas prices stay low certainly in the second quarter from that. But I want to add to that, that Jeff it was gas prices that contributed to the way the consumer feels, but I think that the -- I don’t want to underestimate how well I think that the company was positioned to capitalize in that environment. So we continue to be a very highly differentiated brand. I think that the value that we offer in terms of the quality of our offering for the price was phenomenal. I think that the additional choice and the appeal through both the LTOs and the work we’re doing on our core menu worked during the quarter. And then the execution of our field teams which has been phenomenal. I think has gone a long way to increasing the trust with our guests. So what they were able to count on was consistent, even improving execution, and we saw that through the improvements in our OSAT and the perceptions about value. So, I think that we did get some help through things like the gas prices, but what we saw were a lot of things that were working to take advantage of that environment. And actually before I let Larry add anything, I’ll ask Chris to speak to how we thought our advertising resonated during the quarter.

Chris Ciavarra

Analyst

Sure. Thanks, Sandy. As Sandy said it was a good quarter for us. I think when we looked back in terms of the parts of our guest base we’re able to activate in the queue. Really saw a lot of movement amongst women, households under with children under the age of 13, it really -- a lot of our heavy and medium guests in those were certainly a little bit older as well. So when we think about our media buy and we think about our marketing activities tend to be lined up against those groups. So we thought that was another nice signal of kind of the activities we’ve put in the market and how they performed.

Sandy Cochran

Management

Larry, do you have anything you want to add about?

Larry Hyatt

Management

I’ll -- just to reinforce the point Sandy made. Most restaurant concepts see a positive sales impact from lower gasoline prices as that puts additional disposable income in the consumer’s wallet. The additional impact for Cracker Barrel, since the Barrel -- since 40% of our guests are non-local travelers. Through the impact of gasoline prices on miles driven which seems to be a correlation, but as we’ve noted previously appears to be a less strong one.

Operator

Operator

And we’ll take our next question from Joe Buckley with Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.

Joseph Buckley

Analyst

Hi. Thank you. Couple of questions. The first quarter retail same store sales up so strong, you didn’t mention categories that were strong. Did you see greater attachments, more guests buying retail? Or did the guest buying retail just buy more and drive kind of to check up?

Sandy Cochran

Management

Joe, we did not see really more attachment. I think they bought more items, and I was pleased with our retail results for the quarter as well. I think part of what we were able to do as both I mentioned and Larry in the script is, we were able to really address the need for value and affordability in the first quarter, and I think that will continue to be important in our plans in the second quarter.

Joseph Buckley

Analyst

Okay. And then just on the second quarter guidance, Larry you mentioned the gross margin on retail will be down. Will it be down substantially more year-over-year, are you thinking than what we saw in the first quarter, I mean, because the EPS guidance is kind of for a flattish quarter, and so the sales comparisons look a lot easier in the second quarter. So I’m just trying to reconcile the guidance and just put the gross margin commentary on retail and perspective.

Larry Hyatt

Management

Sure, Joe the company disclosed in the second quarter 10-Q last year that its incentive comp was below both the prior year second quarter or the 2013 second quarter and additionally was below last years first quarter candidly as a result of the sales and margin performance in last years second quarter. We don’t anticipate that we will have a similar incentive compensation impact on this years second quarter, and the year-over-year impact from the second quarter of 2014 to 2015 for incentive compensation mostly at the store management level is in the 60 to 70 basis point range which in and off itself is about $0.10 to $0.14 per diluted share. Additionally the expiration of the WOTC on December 31, of 2013 has an impact on the anticipated tax rate for the second quarter of ’14 versus the actual tax rate for the -- I’m sorry, fiscal ’15 versus what it was in the second quarter of ’14 of about another $0.03 to $0.04 per diluted share. And that combined with the anticipated modestly lower retail gross margins are the reasons why our second quarter guidance looks relatively flattish.

Operator

Operator

And we’ll take our next question from David Carlson with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

David Carlson

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Hi, I hope everyone is doing well. Thanks for that explanation on the fiscal second quarter really. I wanted to talk about the full year guidance though you guys just grew EPS 16 plus percent, when you back up a 30 basis point benefit from lapping the GM conference that comes in closer to 12%. So the guidance for the remainder of the year implies the EPS growth was kind of in this low to mid single-digit range. Given the performance relative to your guidance in fiscal first quarter, I mean, do we look at this outlook as somewhat conservative or there are unexpected costs throughout the remainder of the year that can potentially decelerate the EPS growth rate? And I had a follow up question.

Larry Hyatt

Management

David, adjusted EPS in the -- for the full 2014 fiscal year was about $5.51 as compared to our current guidance for the current fiscal year of $5.95 to $6.10. And if we discussed Q2, and the reason why the year-over-year guidance appears flattish there, I believe if you look at the implied guidance for the third and fourth quarters you’ll see that those percentage increases are in the mid to high single-digits.

David Carlson

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Fair enough. Thanks for that. And then also when you look at the 100 basis point reduction in labor to 35.5% during the quarter, can you kind of help us pick apart how much of it was related to the initiatives such as the, your reduced discount. I know dining management system is underway, but probably didn’t have much benefit then. You’re doing a lot of utilities, retail labor scheduling. Can you kind of help us understand how much of that was related to those initiatives versus comp sales gains?

Larry Hyatt

Management

Sure. Two thirds of the 100 basis point improvement was a result of improvement in hourly labor productivity which is a combination of the initiatives you mentioned as well as the fact that our average check increased by higher percentage than did our hourly wage rate, and one third was driven by improvements in management productivity.

David Carlson

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Thank you guys very much.

Sandy Cochran

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We’ll take our next question from Alton Stump with Longbow Securities.

Brittany Whitman

Analyst · Longbow Securities.

Hey, guys its Brittany Whitman on for Alton today. Just wanted to see if your CapEx allocation for 2015 remains unchanged. Cochran, I think that you had said before that $45 million to $50 million was going to be towards maintenance CapEx and the rest for new store investments. I just wasn’t sure if that had changed or if you were going to ramp up either portion of that at all?

Larry Hyatt

Management

Yes, to qualify that Brittany, the number that we expect to spend for maintenance CapEx remains about the same. The balance is a mix of new stores and of spending on our cost savings and sales driving initiatives.

Brittany Whitman

Analyst · Longbow Securities.

Got it. I think that was all I have. Thanks guys.

Larry Hyatt

Management

All right.

Sandy Cochran

Management

You are welcome.

Larry Hyatt

Management

Thanks, Brittany.

Operator

Operator

And we’ll go next to Michael Gallo with C.L. King & Associates.

Michael Gallo

Analyst

Hi, good morning.

Sandy Cochran

Management

Good morning.

Larry Hyatt

Management

Good morning, Michael.

Michael Gallo

Analyst

Couple of questions. I wanted to just delve into the plate initiative. How much stores have it now, and what's the expected rollout of that, and how many you think you’ll have it in by the end of the year?

Sandy Cochran

Management

It’s throughout the whole chain. I think we rolled -- we tested it for, I don’t know -- it could have been about a year. But we rolled it in the chain, and in October I’m looking at Larry, so it’s everywhere now.

Michael Gallo

Analyst

Could you walk through how much benefit that you’ve gotten so far or what you saw in terms of labor savings?

Sandy Cochran

Management

Well we’re measuring it in a lot of detail across a variety of skill codes, but we’re not -- I guess we haven’t disclosed the detail any more than what I really gave in the call which is that we’re looking and are seeing improvements in labor, in chemical usage, utility expense and dish replacement costs. We’re also getting good feedback from our employees about how it is affecting both the employee experience and the guest experience.

Larry Hyatt

Management

Michael, just to add on to that. We had said in the fourth quarter conference call back in September that we anticipate that the annual savings in 2015 fiscal year from our cost savings initiative which include our plate reduction initiative, our dining room management initiative, our energy management initiative, our retail labor initiative will in the aggregate come to approximately $20 million and that continues to be our expectation.

Michael Gallo

Analyst

Okay, great. And then I just wanted to dig in on licensing. Can you update us there, how many doors you’re in now? How are the products doing?

Sandy Cochran

Management

Well, I’m pleased with the progress we’re making. I think we’re up in the 14,000 or so range. Our bulk deli products are doing well. We’ve recently added summer sausage and jerky. I know Kroger did a big promotion about that. We’ve got hams, which of course is seasonal item on sale now in a number of locations, and we still plan to launch new products with a second licensee, we haven’t announced in the Spring.

Michael Gallo

Analyst

Is it too early to talk about what kind of overall contribution you expect to get from that?

Sandy Cochran

Management

Yes. I think it’s too early.

Michael Gallo

Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks very much.

Sandy Cochran

Management

Thanks, Michael.

Operator

Operator

And we’ll take our next question from Bob Derrington with Wunderlich Securities.

Robert Derrington

Analyst · Wunderlich Securities.

Yes, thank you. Sandy and Larry I’m not sure who to direct this question to. What I’m trying to understand is, the color around your guidance, directionally you just reported a very strong quarter for same store sales for both year or two, retail and restaurant segments. And your guidance for the year, I think directionally is 2.5% to 3.5%. Yes, each of the success -- the upcoming quarters for the balance of the year are considerably easier theoretically, year-over-year. So, I’m just trying to understand, what is it that you envision in the future versus what seems to be a little bit more supportive macro backdrop, lower gas prices et cetera that would keep your guidance where it is, for the quarters to come.

Sandy Cochran

Management

I’ll let Larry add on to this. But first of all some of what was baked into our initial guidance just as we assumed that we would have some of these improvement, certainly better weather environment and a number of the initiatives that we were planning especially on the marketing and menu side we had hoped would resonate. Larry, what do you want to add to?

Larry Hyatt

Management

Yes, Bob, I’ll offer a couple of observations. One is, although we have tightened our expected range of commodity cost increases, we’ve not changed our basic projection that anticipates our commodity cost on a year-over-year basis are going to accelerate in the second quarter versus the first quarter, and in the third quarter versus the second quarter before showing some moderation in the fourth quarter and that’s reflected in our guidance. Additionally to just reinforce Sandy’s point, we are cautious as to retail margins both as we go into what we believe is a promotional holiday season and to some extent into the balance of the year.

Robert Derrington

Analyst · Wunderlich Securities.

But Larry, I guess my question isn’t focused so much on the margins and the earnings as it is the top line. And clearly the first quarter was a very good quarter, and so I’m just trying to understand, do you anticipate your check average coming down for both restaurants and retail that would make your same store sales guidance for the full fiscal year to be -- what seems to be maybe overly conservative from our view?

Larry Hyatt

Management

Bob, I can't comment on conservatism of your view, but I will observe that on the restaurant side we had same store sales in the first quarter of 3.3% and our guidance for the year is 2.5% to 3.5% which doesn’t necessarily imply a de-acceleration.

Robert Derrington

Analyst · Wunderlich Securities.

Very good. Thank you, Larry.

Sandy Cochran

Management

Thanks, Bob.

Operator

Operator

We’ll take our next question from Steve Anderson with Miller Tabak.

Stephen Anderson

Analyst · Miller Tabak.

Good morning, Sandy. Good morning, Larry. Just to follow up another question on commodities. You said that you’re contracted for only 58% of your food commodity needs for the fiscal year. Can you discuss what categories you are yet to contract?

Larry Hyatt

Management

Sure. The categories that we have not -- that we’ve locked in half or less of the major categories that would be, beef, pork, poultry, dairy. The categories that we believe that now is not the time to be entering into long-term with fixed price contracts.

Stephen Anderson

Analyst · Miller Tabak.

Okay. All right. Thank you.

Sandy Cochran

Management

Thank you, Steve.

Operator

Operator

And there are no further questions left in the queue at this time. I’d like to turn the call back over to Ms. Cochran for any closing remarks.

Sandy Cochran

Management

Well, thank you all for joining us today. I’m pleased with the first quarter results, encouraged by the initial progress we’ve made on our business priorities, look for forward to building on the success throughout the remainder of the fiscal year. We appreciate your interest and support, and wish you a safe and happy holiday season.