Earnings Labs

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL)

Q4 2025 Earnings Call· Wed, Sep 17, 2025

$30.69

-1.19%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-7.64%

1 Week

-11.66%

1 Month

-20.10%

vs S&P

-20.90%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Cracker Barrel Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2025 Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Adam Hanan, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Adam Hannon

Analyst

Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to Cracker Barrel's Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2025 Conference Call and Webcast. This afternoon, we issued a press release announcing our fourth quarter results. In this press release and on this call, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures such as adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter ended August 1, 2025. Please refer to the footnotes in our press release for further details about these metrics. The company believes these measures provide investors with an enhanced understanding of the company's financial performance. This information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for net income or earnings per share information prepared in accordance with GAAP. The last page of the press release include reconciliations from the non-GAAP information to the GAAP financials. On the call with me are Cracker Barrel's President and CEO, Julie Masino; and Senior Vice President and CFO, Craig Pommells. Julie and Craig will provide a review of the business, financials and outlook. We will then open up the call for questions. On this call, statements may be made by management of their beliefs and expectations regarding the company's future operating results or expected future events. These are known as forward-looking statements which involve risks and uncertainties that, in many cases, are beyond management's control and may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. We caution our listeners and readers in considering forward-looking statements and information. Many of the factors that could affect results are summarized in the cautionary description of risks and uncertainties found at the end of the press release and are described in detail in our reports that we file with or furnished to the SEC. Finally, the information shared on this call is valid as of today's date, and the company undertakes no obligation to update it, except as may be required under applicable law. I'll now turn the call over to Cracker Barrel's President and CEO, Julie Masino. Julie?

Julie Masino

Analyst

Thank you, everyone, for joining. I'd like to start by saying what an honor it is to be trusted with the responsibility of stewarding the Cracker Barrel brand. Ever since the company's founding in 1969, Cracker Barrel has been a home away from home for America, with our restaurants, people and food offering a reminder of some of the country's greatest attributes, family, hard work, fresh-made meals and country hospitality. Cracker Barrel is not just an Old Country Store or a restaurant. It's the front porch of America, and we take that very seriously. The feedback we received from our guests in recent weeks on our brand refresh and store remodels, has shown us just how deeply people care about Cracker Barrel. We thank our guests for sharing their voices and love for the brand and telling us when we've misstepped. We've listened carefully. As we've discussed on past conference calls and presentations, we've been advancing a multiyear plan to return Cracker Barrel to growth and ensure we're here to welcome families around our table for generations to come, while staying true to what is so special about the brand. We conducted extensive research to inform our strategic plan. Well, what cannot be captured in data is how much our guests see themselves and their own story in the Cracker Barrel experience, which is what's led to such a strong response to these changes. We have already taken steps to get back on track. We want longtime fans and new guests to experience the full story of the people, places and food that makes Cracker Barrel so special. That's why our team pivoted quickly to switch back to our old-timer logo and has already begun executing new marketing, advertising and social media initiatives, leaning into Uncle Herschel and the nostalgia…

Craig Pommells

Analyst

Thank you, Julie, and good afternoon, everyone. Before reviewing our fourth quarter results, I will share a brief update on the full year. Adjusting for the impact of the 53rd week in the prior year, we grew revenue by 2.2%, which included comparable store restaurant sales growth of 3.5%. Additionally, we delivered adjusted EBITDA growth of 9%. Our teams did a great job delivering these results in fiscal '25. Now turning to the quarterly results. For Q4, we reported total revenue of $868 million, which included restaurant revenue of $718.2 million and retail revenue of $149.8 million. Excluding the $62.8 million benefit from the 53rd week in the prior year, total revenue increased 4.4%. Comparable store restaurant sales grew by 5.4%, representing the fifth consecutive quarter of positive comparable store restaurant sales growth. Pricing for the quarter was 5.4%. We continue to be pleased with the strategic pricing initiative as flow-through results remain favorable. Additionally, menu mix was also favorable by 1%. Off-premise sales were 18.1% of restaurant sales, an increase of approximately 100 basis points versus prior year. Comparable store retail sales decreased by 0.8%. Moving on to our fourth quarter expenses. Total cost of goods sold in the quarter was 30.5% of total revenue versus 30.4% in the prior year. Restaurant cost of goods sold was 26.3% of restaurant sales versus 26% in the prior year. This 30 basis point increase was primarily driven by menu mix commodity inflation and higher promotion-driven waste, partially offset by menu pricing. Commodity inflation was approximately 2.3%, driven principally by higher beef, pork and egg prices, partially offset by lower poultry and produce prices. Retail cost of goods sold was 51% of retail sales versus 50.1% in the prior year. This 90 basis point increase was primarily driven by $2.4 million in…

Julie Masino

Analyst

Thanks, Craig. Cracker Barrel is an incredible brand. We are proud to welcome millions of guests a year. Our hardworking team is more than 70,000 people strong. Our value proposition is exceptional. Our breakfast offerings are standout. Our retail assortments are enticing and our balance sheet is strong. As you know, the company for many years was not delivering the results that we know are possible for this brand. The choices people have, their expectations around food and experience the way they travel and their technology have all changed dramatically over the last decade, and the company had not kept pace. I share this to reground us in the importance of Cracker Barrel's growth. We deeply value the strong emotional connection our guests have, not just to the old-timer logo or vintage Americana decor, but to the sense of tradition and nostalgia those represent. That connection is powerful, and we recognize there are other areas where we must continue improving, especially in our food and overall guest experience. Fortunately, these were already part of our multiyear plan, and we are moving forward with a renewed focus on both. You've heard me say before that we have all the right pieces to return to being a leading restaurant company with meaningfully improved margins and growth potential. There are many elements of our plan that have been working well and delivering results. As you've seen from our 5 consecutive quarters of positive comp store restaurant sales and a 9% growth in adjusted EBITDA we delivered in fiscal 2025. Some of these successful elements of our plan include actions we've taken so far with our food and menu, bringing back old favorites like Uncle Herschel's breakfast and chicken and rice as well as introducing new dishes like pot roast and our improved New…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And your first question today will come from Brian Mullan with Piper Sandler.

Brian Mullan

Analyst

Thank you for sharing the traffic performance this quarter. Just given what you saw following the logo change, just had a question about the marketing plan this year. Do you still spend the same amount of dollars and maybe just change the message in order to drive that sequential traffic recovery you're expecting? Or maybe do you pull back on spending regroup a bit? Just how are you thinking about that as you sit here today? And is there any way to perhaps actually take advantage of all this recent attention over time?

Julie Masino

Analyst

Brian, thanks for the question. It's Julie. We expect marketing as a percent of sales will be a little bit higher in '26 than it was in '25 with Q1, in particular, up a bit. We're continuing to invest in marketing. You saw some great performance from our investment there in Q4, but especially given the need right now to drive traffic in light of the current headwinds, we're going to continue to invest there.

Brian Mullan

Analyst

Okay. And then just a follow-up on some of the back of the house issues. I think Phase 2 this year was always going to be focused on improving some of the processes. But separate from that in the prepared remarks, you've talked about improving some of the food quality of some of the items. Just trying to understand, like was this always the plan on the food quality side? Or is some of this maybe due to broader feedback you've done since the logo change, so just really any color on the plans, both processes as well as food on the menu that you're working on?

Julie Masino

Analyst

Sure. It's a great question. look, food quality has always been a north star for us in the plan. We've been focused on that as well as process simplification to make jobs easier and improve productivity. Phase 1, as we've talked about, rolled out in Q3, Phase 2 started testing in Q4, like I said in my prepared remarks, Kitchen initiatives like this are complex. And I think as we shared with you guys a couple of quarters ago, we said it was going to have 3 phases, multifaceted. We just continue to evaluate processes as they get out there. We're learning from scale. We continue to listen to our team members and watch food quality scores and value scores. We remain focused on all that, and we'll just keep focused on all of these things.

Operator

Operator

And your next question today will come from Dennis Geiger with UBS.

Dennis Geiger

Analyst

I appreciate the quarter-to-date or year-to-date color. Wondering if you could share anything more sort of on how things have trended just given the sensitivity and the magnitude of some of the pressure. Anything to share have gone by? Have you've seen any kind of improvement within that trajectory? I understand you gave the 1Q guide. But just if anything more on the cadence -- weekly cadence so far?

Craig Pommells

Analyst

Dennis, this is Craig. I'll start on that one. I think for us, if we kind of think about where we were before all of this, before 08/19, traffic was down about 1%. Q4 was also down about 1%. And obviously, we had reported the 5 consecutive quarters of same-restaurant store sales. So we're very happy with that, and we're pleased with that performance. And obviously, things have changed a bit here recently. I think the guide that we've given for the quarter is really our best thinking at this point. And as we think about the year, the -- our best thinking right now is we'll continue to get better sequentially quarter-over-quarter, and we expect even greater rate of improvement in the second half of the year. But this is a bit of an unusual situation, and we've factored all that into our guidance.

Julie Masino

Analyst

The only thing I'd add, Dennis, is the teams are hard at work. We have taken the feedback from our guests, pivoted quickly. We've got a plan to drive traffic, and we're optimistic that we can get back to that prior run rate.

Dennis Geiger

Analyst

Very helpful, guys. And the last one, I guess sort of 2 parts. If anything additional on the weakness and the challenges, whether it's regional anything by cohort or frequency of guests if you've got anything more or maybe it's just broad-based. And the more important second part of the question is kind of Julie, what you just touched on. From here plans, in particular, to address kind of the near-term challenge, it sounds like the front porch feedback initiative is going to help to dictate some of the plans in the reaction here? Just wanted to see if I have that correct or if anything else to share on kind of near to medium-term stuff to recover that traffic?

Craig Pommells

Analyst

Dennis, this is Craig. I'll get started with the first part of that and then turn it over to Julie. We have seen declines that are relatively broad-based, but the declines are larger in the Southeast, excluding Florida. In terms of cohorts by income, we're not seeing any substantial differences by income. In terms of age, again, fairly broad-based. We're doing a little bit better or a little bit of less decline with the over 65 cohort. But speaking more generally, broad-based geographically, a little bit more in the Southeast, that's Florida and broad-based with income at age.

Julie Masino

Analyst

From a plan standpoint, Dennis, we had really planned to focus on a lot of new menu innovation this fall, driving our herbs roasted chicken, our sausage and egg Hashbrown Casserole. We've also brought back 2 guests request to the menu Uncle Herschel's breakfast rejoined the menu ironically on the day of the logo change as well as country mornings breakfast. So those are 2 breakfast items that guests have been asking for, for a while. We continue to listen to our guests. I think we've shown that throughout the last year with items coming back like Campfire. We're continuing to do that right now as we really pivot and double down. Marketing plans that you're going to be seeing in the next few weeks really center around college football. We've got some advertising buys there that were existing prior to this event. We've got some big news coming next that we're excited about. So just stay tuned. The teams are really actively engaged in making sure all of our guests know that we are honoring our legacy and our heritage and inviting everybody in for a great meal around our table.

Operator

Operator

And your next question today will come from Jake Bartlett with Truist Securities.

Jake Bartlett

Analyst

My first was on the margin guidance. The implied margin guidance for '26. Maybe if you could kind of dig into the moving pieces before we had talked about $55 million to $60 million in cost savings from the back of the house sounds like that plan has changed a little bit, but it seems to be on track. Maybe just to describe maybe how much savings you expect there. What you're looking at from G&A.? I think obviously, 2025 is an investment year, as you described it. The situation has changed. Wondering whether G&A might -- there's opportunity to bring that down? And then lastly, within the guidance, are there any unusual items, and then something that won't be backed out, but they just are larger than normal, specifically maybe in the first quarter, maybe there's some expenses that you've incurred as you've had to react to the near-term disruptions.

Craig Pommells

Analyst

Jake, it's Craig. I'll start with Q1. I think the biggest item for Q1 is we -- obviously, we have the softer traffic and we've given the guide there in terms of our expectations. We also have that $16 million in additional costs that relates to the marketing, the advertising. Our general managers conference actually occurs every other year. So we'll incur that this year. We did not incur it last year and then we have some related training costs. So all of that together will be a meaningful impact to Q1. And as we think about the full year, the biggest driver in our EBITDA consideration at this point is really around traffic. So that negative 7% to negative 4%. That's a pretty big range, but obviously, we're still early in this. We're only about 30 days away from when all of this occurred. So that's going to be the big lever. And the marginal impact of that is also quite substantial. The way that we think about that is a flow-through rate on that traffic of somewhere between 30% and 45%. So those are going to be the biggest drivers in terms of our EBITDA guidance. We do have a fair bit of cost savings in the plan, but we also have things going in the other direction. So at this point, the best I can do is kind of point you to the full year guidance and point you to the traffic performance has been the biggest driver there.

Julie Masino

Analyst

I think the only clarifying point I would make, Jake is, as I thought I heard you say $55 million to $60 million attributed to back of house. I don't think we've actually attributed $55 million to $60 million to back of house. We've just said we'd have $55 million to $60 million in cost saves of which back of house is one of the key initiatives in there. So just to clarify that for you. We are moving forward with back of house. It's kind of a 3-phase program. There are savings associated with that, but that's not the only thing driving that $55 million to $60 million.

Craig Pommells

Analyst

Over multiple years as well as the other key point there.

Jake Bartlett

Analyst

Got it. Should we think about the $55 million to $60 million, and I'd love to hear what the other big buckets there are. But as something that is still would be expected within the '26 and '27 or is it the prior plan? Or has that changed materially?

Craig Pommells

Analyst

Yes. I think given all of the moving pieces here, we are not going to share any more about that at this point. I mean we think the $50 million to $60 million is still achievable. It may take the exact time frame. We'll have to update as we kind of navigate through all of that about $50 million to $60 million still achievable. We're still evaluating the exact timing of that at this point, and we've contemplated all of that in our guidance.

Julie Masino

Analyst

The only thing I'd add there, Jake, is, we are -- it's one of the things I think this company is really best at. We are really good at cost saves. And we have a history of delivering that over the last several years, even before my arrival. So the teams bubble down. They have some good plans there, and we will deliver there.

Jake Bartlett

Analyst

Great. And then my another question was on the balance sheet and the return of cash to shareholders. You have the authorization now, the $100 million. I guess the question is what your approach is to the balance sheet. It looks like your EBITDA guidance is about your equal to your CapEx guidance. So if you look at where your EBITDA guidance is, you're going to get a little bit higher leverage there anyway from that. So is it feasible to return cash to shareholders this year given in the framework of your guidance? Or is that just kind of a tool maybe for upside? Or how do we think about your approach to the balance sheet, returning cash to shareholders in the context of your guidance?

Craig Pommells

Analyst

Jake, I'll start with that one. The -- for a long time, the Cracker Barrel's Board's approach to capital allocation is to use a balanced approach. The Board is always looking to optimize and they focus on investing in value-creating activities in the core business, maintaining a conservative balance sheet, in particular as it relates to our debt profile and then returning cash to shareholders. So the Board is going to continue to evaluate that and be a bit opportunistic. So I don't think any of those decisions are final. They're going to -- obviously, they have made the authorization, they've approved the dividend and they're going to continue to monitor that as things evolve.

Operator

Operator

And your next question today will come from Jeff Farmer with Gordon Haskett.

Jeffrey Farmer

Analyst

Several of your casual dining and family dining peers have been looks like increasingly aggressive in pursuing low price point offers or just value promotions at a certain price point. So again, sort of as the logo dynamic has played out over the last 5 to 6 weeks, even in that narrow time frame, the segment has gotten increasingly competitive. So in lieu of what a lot of your peers are doing, how does that impact your own top line strategy?

Julie Masino

Analyst

Yes. Jeff, it's Julie. I'll start and then Craig can jump in. We are -- we continue, as you've noted, to see that with the competition, there's a lot of promotional activity out there and dealing going on. No, we would expect some of that because it's back-to-school season, and you usually see a lot of that this time of year. I'd remind you and everyone out there, what an incredible value we deliver to our guests in so many ways. The first one that I'd love to point out is our check. Our check for fiscal '25 still ended the year right around $15, while family dining was a little over $18 and casual is at $27. So eating a meal at Cracker Barrel of our abundant scratch-made food. And remember, people at Cracker Barrel have told us, our guests have told us redoundingly that they value our delicious food in abundance. People leave with ] drug ] bag, they leave with to-go containers. And so we think that we really still represent that great value. We were recently on air with our Sunrise Special, which is our $7.99 all-day offering of 2 pancakes of your choice of either eggs or breakfast protein. We've got great items out there. If you think about Campfire, one of the reasons that landed so well with our guests is we had an opening price point at $10.99 on that new sausage and shrimp skillet as part of the Campfire menu. Our barbell strategy continues to resonate with our guests, think about how we've evidenced that in the last year, what we've been able to flow through in pricing, the 1 percentage point of mix we delivered every single quarter in '25. We've got early dinner deals starting at $8.99 that continue to perform well for us. And then honestly, the cherry on the top is our loyalty program, which is another way that we deliver tremendous value. When we look at the promotional activity that we've put out there in the last couple of weeks, just to reinvite guests back into our restaurants, they've resonated really well. We had the Sunrise Special BOGO. And then this last weekend, we offered the old timers' BOGO because we know how much everybody loves the old timer. What's better than 1, 2. So we brought in yet this past weekend with that. We saw that resonate not only with guests, but with our loyalty members as well. And they were able to earn pegs on all of those transactions. So it continues to be a way that we deliver great value to our guests. So we believe that we are well poised as I've said in the past to compete in this space because we have such great value day in and day out.

Craig Pommells

Analyst

Yes. And internally, we continue to see our value scores, make gains on top of gains. So we're particularly pleased with that. But we have some levers here.

Jeffrey Farmer

Analyst

Okay. And then I think I heard you guys say 4% to 5% menu pricing in 2026, is that accurate?

Craig Pommells

Analyst

Correct. Yes.

Jeffrey Farmer

Analyst

Okay. So the question that follows that, actually, a couple would be. So that's quite a bit of how do your commodity and wage inflation, roughly 100 to 200 basis points. And it would be one of the highest menu pricing levels in this sector. So 2 questions. So why do you guys feel the need to sort of push that pricing? Is this just, again, sort of going back to the -- or rejiggering the pricing structure? And do you expect your consumers to sort of accept this pricing without too much pushback?

Craig Pommells

Analyst

Absolutely. The -- so keep in mind, as you know, Jeff, we revamped our whole pricing approach a couple of years ago, we've built up that capability and that has been working well. And we measure that on an ongoing basis. We continue to see really good flow-through. We continue to make gains with our value scores. And we've actually -- even with that, we've been generating positive mix. And I think if you think about 4% to 5% in context of $15, it is just still a smaller dollar increase, and it continues to it continues to work for us. We've also been really careful as we use the kind of the barbell pricing approach. We've been really careful in terms of maintaining those entry price points, and that's been helpful. We also have the loyalty program that continues to grow and exceed our expectations. And so guests that dine with us more frequently effectively can get an incremental discount with that program. So we're taking higher pricing, but we've been really thoughtful about how to do that and continue to flow through well from a guest perspective.

Operator

Operator

And your next question today will come from Sara Senatore with Bank of America.

Sara Senatore

Analyst

I guess one quick clarification. I think you said, Craig, that most of the age cohorts or you didn't see a lot of variation outside of the geographic kind of split, but that the older cohort was perhaps less affected than younger. So I just wanted to clarify that, and then I do have a question.

Craig Pommells

Analyst

Sara, yes, that's correct. We are seeing the impacts really across all of the cohorts. However, our over 65 cohorts has held up best relative to the others.

Sara Senatore

Analyst

Okay. And I guess in that context, and maybe, Julie, similar to what you said was that Cracker Barrel hadn't evolved with the guests from prior to many -- for many years, which I think certainly makes sense. I guess, if remodeling and rebranding isn't the way to sort of evolve or bring the brand forward. Maybe to talk a little bit more about what is as you think about maybe shift -- either shifting your customer base to perhaps maybe easing a little bit more useful? Or how you think about evolving the brand in the context of your comments earlier?

Julie Masino

Analyst

Yes, Sara, thanks for the question. Look, I think the way we've talked about the plan is we -- first of all, we spent a lot of time on research and really understanding where Cracker Barrel sat versus our competition and what our opportunities were and also what our strengths were. And that was always about food and experiences that guests love, and we were kind of in the middle of the pack on some of those scores when we rated ourselves against the competition. So one of the key tenets for our plan has been around food and experience. And when you think about the 5 pillars that we put out there, brand and even the logo piece was just one small work stream of those 5 pillars, so the 21 work streams that we've put out there, same with remodels, it's one small work stream. We know that we've had work to do on food, experience. The loyalty program was a piece of that, pricing was a piece of that. So all of those things are coming together in the plan. As we've talked on this call and in my prepared remarks, a lot of those pieces are really working. So we feel like this is still the right plan. And our focus right now, our renewed focus is on food and experience. We're really doubling down there, taking in a lot of the feedback from the recent weeks and continuing to evaluate the menu and the work that we need to do there.

Sara Senatore

Analyst

Okay. That's very helpful. And just then sorry, second quick modeling question, Craig. Can you just talk a little bit -- I'm sorry, if I missed it, G&A was a good guy again this quarter. I think last quarter, you had said that there might be some timing shifts. So could you just maybe explain maybe what happened?

Craig Pommells

Analyst

Well, we've been continuing to manage our G&A as a part of the broader our broader cost savings efforts. So we're always looking at our G&A spend and whenever there is an opportunity to spend less, we're always taking that. So we've continued to manage it. The entire team is working to deploy those dollars as effectively as possible, and that paid off in the quarter.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And your next question today will come from Jon Tower with Citi.

Jon Tower

Analyst

Jumping around on mix, if you don't mind. You had mentioned quarter-to-date, you're seeing good, not good, but you're seeing traffic declines. But at the same time you're seeing an uptick in loyalty sign-ups, I believe you talked about, I think in the recent weeks, 300,000 loyalty members sign up. So can you speak to what's happening there? Are you doing anything internally at the stores to get people to jump into the program more so than what you were doing previously?

Julie Masino

Analyst

Jon, it's Julie. Our loyalty program is not -- has not been impacted as we talked in by recent events. Your takeaways were correct. Traffic is a little bit down, not a little bit. I think you said good, I was like, I don't know about that. Traffic is down since 08/19, but the loyalty program sign-ups are actually ahead of our plan. So we've signed up about 400,000 people quarter-to-date and 300,000 of those people have come in since 08/19, again, exceeding our plan, exceeding our expectations. We haven't changed any activity in the stores around that to specifically answer your question. We know that it's a great program. People really love being in it. And as Craig and I talked earlier, it provides great value. And we're really excited to launch this front porch feedback piece of it tomorrow because we've gotten so much feedback in the last few weeks. What we think is -- what we think we can do with front porch feedback is really here from our loyal guests who are in all the time who've had an experience with us, we've set it up so that it actually is linked to the traffic so that we can understand their transaction, their store, and we can start to aggregate feedback in new ways. So we're really excited about it. It's just another way that we can value our guests beyond just the pegs that they earn or the discounts that we might provide to them.

Jon Tower

Analyst

And then, I guess jumping around a little bit. Maybe, Craig, you had mentioned 60% of the CapEx this year is going to be roughly maintenance. Is that a good that $80 million to $90 million maintenance CapEx, a good way to think about it longer term over the next several years, $80 million, $90 million for baseline maintenance?

Craig Pommells

Analyst

Yes. I think longer term, what we have shared -- what we've talked about is on an inflation-adjusted basis, this kind of $125 million as being a base spend amount. And that's what we were -- that's what we did in '24 and about that -- about '24 and '23 at about $125 million because -- and that includes base maintenance, it includes the things that -- some other ongoing projects. I think that's a good base number once you adjust that for inflation. We've also said that -- for the next couple of years, as we got a bit behind on maintenance in the stores through COVID, that is really important to get caught up there. We're in a competitive industry, and we need to ensure that we are showing up the way that we intend to in terms of that. So we've been making incremental investments there.

Jon Tower

Analyst

Okay. So that $125 million is a decent baseline in the next several years, adjusted for inflation in terms of...

Craig Pommells

Analyst

Well on top of the -- again, as a base. Now on top of the $125 million, like we had in '25 and '26, we are making incremental investments, particularly in catching up on deferred maintenance. And both in '25 and '26, we also have some additional technology spend. But once we get through that on an inflation-adjusted basis, that $125 million number has been our historical run rate.

Jon Tower

Analyst

Got it. And then just in terms of your comments around the tariff remediation measures, can you speak to what exactly is going on there? Are you guys just sourcing from countries with better lower rates of tariffs? Or are you effectively pricing to offset the higher tariff rates, like what's going on with these measures?

Craig Pommells

Analyst

Yes. Jon, the team has really done a great job there. Very proud of the work they've done. I'll give you a little bit more texture. In fiscal '26, we expect incremental year-over-year tariffs of about $25 million. So $25 million more in tariffs, in '26 than we did in '25. And that's -- the vast majority of that, vast, vast majority of that is being mitigated by a few things. Number one is vendor negotiations, and the team has been working really hard on that and have had a lot of success. We've had multiple rounds of vendor negotiations. The other change is just in our assortment, like we sell a lot of things that are largely discretionary. And if we can't make a reasonable profit on it, then we don't need to sell it. So we've made those adjustments. There's also pricing, as you mentioned, and we've also made adjustments to the country of origin. That is an ongoing process that does take a little bit more time. And finally, we've taken the opportunity with the tariffs, but part of our broader retail strategy to adjust our SKU count. So when we added '26, we expect our total SKU count in the retail side of the business to be down about 10%. So the team has really worked hard and accomplished a lot as it relates to working through the tariff impacts.

Julie Masino

Analyst

Our vendors are partnered nicely with us on a lot of that work, too. Yes.

Operator

Operator

This will conclude our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Julie Masino for any closing remarks.

Julie Masino

Analyst

Thank you for joining us today. We're moving ahead with a strong plan in place, and our teams are focused on getting back to a positive trajectory. We appreciate your interest and look forward to keeping you updated as we make progress throughout the fiscal year. Finally, I really want to express my sincere gratitude to our 70,000-plus team members for their dedication and hard work, particularly in these last few weeks. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.