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CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc. (CCC)

Q3 2022 Earnings Call· Fri, Nov 4, 2022

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the CCC Intelligent Solutions Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] And the conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Bill Warmington, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

William Warmington

Analyst

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to CCC's Third quarter 2022 financial results, which we announced in the press release issued before the open of the market today. Joining me on the call are Githesh Ramamurthy, CCC's Chairman and CEO; and Brian Herb, CCC's CFO. The forward-looking statements we make today about the company's results and plans are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause the actual results and the implementation of the company's plans to vary materially. These risks are discussed in the earnings releases available on our Investor Relations website and under the heading Risk Factors in our 2021 annual report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC. Further, these comments and the Q&A that follows are copyrighted today by CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings, Inc. Any recording, retransmission, reproduction or other use of the same for profit or otherwise without prior consent of CCC's prohibited and a violation of United States copyright and other laws. Additionally, while we have approved the publishing of a transcript of this call by a third party, we take no responsibility for the inaccuracies that may appear in that transcript. Please note the discussion on today's call includes certain non-GAAP financial measures as defined by the SEC. The company believes these non-GAAP financial measures provide useful information to management and investors regarding certain financial and business trends relating to the company's financial condition and the results of operations. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures is available in our earnings release that is available on our Investor Relations website. Thank you. And now I'll turn the call over to Githesh.

Githesh Ramamurthy

Analyst

Thank you, Bill, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. I'm pleased to report that CCC delivered another quarter of strong top and bottom line performance. For the third quarter of 2022, CCC's total revenue was $199 million, up 13% year-over-year and ahead of our guidance range. Adjusted EBITDA was $78 million, up 11% year-over-year also ahead of our guidance range. Our adjusted EBITDA margin was 39.3%. Based on our strong performance in the third quarter and year-to-date, coupled with our outlook for Q4, we are raising our revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance for the full year, which Brian will walk through. Today, I would like to discuss 3 topics. The first is the uniqueness and strength of the CCC platform. The second is how our efficient financial model enables continuous investment and innovation throughout economic cycles. And third is the progress we're making on our new solutions. Beginning with our first topic, what makes CCC's platform so unique is that it combines an efficient technology framework, close customer relationships and a multisided network that benefits all parties, resulting in a powerful business model. Our technology framework is a key element of the CCC platform. We have a long history of being at the forefront of technological innovation for the auto insurance economy. Whether that was introducing the CCC 1 platform for collision repair more than a decade ago, and which today represents more than 40% of our revenue or more recently in launching and scaling several first in the world AI solutions for claims. Innovation is at the heart of what we do. And today, our 100% multi-tenant cloud architecture is scalable and enables us to roll out new products and updates quickly and cost effectively. We are also very fortunate to have great customers who…

Brian Herb

Analyst

Thanks, Githesh. As we now turn to the numbers, First, I'd like to review our third quarter 2022 results and then discuss our updated guidance for the fourth quarter and for the full year 2022. Total revenue for the third quarter was $198.7 million, up 13% from the prior year period. Approximately 10% of our revenue growth in the third quarter was driven by cross-sell and upsell into our installed client base, including continued strong adoption of our digital solutions, about 1 percentage point of the 10% came from the large expansion deals that we closed in the second half of last year that we've been talking about over the last several quarters. An incremental 3% came from new logos, mostly repair facilities and parts suppliers. I'd also note that 99% of our revenue in the third quarter was domestic. Turning to our key metrics. Software gross dollar retention or GDR, captures the amount of revenue retained from our client base compared to the prior year period. In Q3 2022, GDR was 99%, consistent with last quarter. We believe our software GDR reflects the value we provide our customers and the stickiness of the network effect. Software GDR is a core tenet to our predictable and resilient revenue model. Software net dollar retention, or NDR, captures the amount of cross-sell and upsell from our existing customers compared to the prior year period as well as volume movements in our auto physical damage client base. In Q3 2022, software NDR was 110%, which is above our historical average. The consistently strong NDR performance in recent quarters reflects the success we've been having with our cross-sell and upsell opportunities across our client base, including the large expansion deals signed in the second half of last year. NDR is a core driver in…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Gabriela Borges of Goldman Sachs.

Gabriela Borges

Analyst

For both Brian and Githesh, Brian, you talked a little bit about the puts and takes, the 4Q guidance. Githesh, you talked about some of the longer-term secular tailwinds you're seeing post-COVID. I'd ask about the long-term growth rate, so the 7% to 10%. Maybe give us a little bit of insight into what would drive you to be at the low end of that range versus the high end of that range in any given year? And any early visibility into 2023 and how we should be thinking about that?

Githesh Ramamurthy

Analyst

Brian, do you want to take the first part? Gabriela, and I'll take the second part of your question.

Brian Herb

Analyst

Yes. Gabriela, I'll start think about Q4 and the range we put out. So we talked about 7% at the midpoint and 8% at the high end range. Remember, within there, there's 2 points of headwind that we're facing. So when you normalize that, that's 9% and then 10% at the high end range. So I think that's a good way to think about how we're going to end the year and then the stepping off point into next year. When you think about what will drive the high end of the range, it's certainly going to be -- one of the key factors will be the adoption of our newer solutions and how those track. And so when we think about what will push us to the high end or beyond, it's really going to be the progress of those new solutions that we're rolling out and the adoption of them. Githesh, if you wanted to add some additional color?

Githesh Ramamurthy

Analyst

Yes. Gabriela, one of the things that we have focused on is having a very, very scalable and modern cloud architecture. So as we deliver new solutions, our ROI tends to be very quick. We're talking about 90 days, typically from the time we roll out a product or a solution. So as a result, we have high adoption. And as an example, I mentioned Estimate-STP. And if you look at even just over a quarter, we've added 3 large clients. And as we roll out existing products, as we roll out our newer solutions, we're also continuously developing new products. So I would say adoption as well as the pipeline we have of new solutions is what gives us confidence. And most importantly, we've had a number of meetings with our customers. And they all have indicated a very deep propensity to continue to roll our solutions out. That's what gives us confidence in our growth.

Gabriela Borges

Analyst

That all makes sense. As a follow-up, Githesh, congratulations on hiring Mike. Maybe give us a little bit of a preview. What are a couple of key projects that Mike will be looking on? And what are some of the areas where you think you can really move the needle?

Githesh Ramamurthy

Analyst

Sure. Mike is primarily focused on, first and foremost, making sure he has an extraordinarily deep understanding of our customers, our products and solutions as we built all of these over the long run. And Mike's primary focus is working with our customers and to really roll out many of these newer solutions, a whole range of solutions working with our teams. And that Mike has deep experience in go-to-market rollout of new solutions. And that's, I would say, hey, a big focus for Mike.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Dylan Becker of William Blair.

Dylan Becker

Analyst

Congrats on the quarter. I guess maybe starting with Githesh, the idea, you touched on STP planning out around claims automation, obviously, some solid early traction there. But as you think about the idea of rounding out the broader kind of touchless claims opportunity, I think that there's probably other components that you could build out, right? So speaking to that innovation piece, you touched on smart enabler. I would just understand how the early track you're seeing maybe gives you and the market confidence in claims automation capabilities and how you're thinking about rounding up that suite in the future innovation cadence there?

Githesh Ramamurthy

Analyst

Okay. Thanks for the question, Dylan. And here's what we're seeing. What we started to do, first and foremost, was when we started rolling out Estimate-STP, people started testing Estimate-STP in a handful of geographies. People are tested out in the state, maybe 2 states, maybe 3 states. And just by way of background, prior to Estimate-STP, we had rolled out Smart Estimate, which was our AI solution, which were being used by thousands of adjusters, so people get really comfortable with the ability of the AI and its fundamental capabilities. So as we move to Estimate-STP, what we are now seeing is clients are going from 1 or 2 or 3 states to in some instances, have gone to all 50 states, and that volumes are still very tiny. But as we tune the models, as we add more customers and people are rolling out in more states, we see tremendous opportunities for Estimate-STP to continue to roll out across our client base. Now just as a reminder, Estimate-STP is part of a much broader view that we have around STP or straight-through processing. So this ability to demonstrate in very tangible terms, immediately, what Estimate-STP can deliver gives our customers a lot of confidence, and we're working at design levels with many of our customers across a much broader STP, which basically starts all the way from consumer, all the way through settlement and takes advantage of the network of customers we have across insurers, repairers, parts providers because you have to bring all of these pieces together to truly pull off straight-through processing.

Dylan Becker

Analyst

That's very helpful. I appreciate the color there. Maybe switching over to the repair facility side as well, too. The idea of consolidation playing out in the space. You've got a healthy share here. And I'd assume that most of your customers tend to be the consolidators. You touched on a lot of the macro impacts, but maybe how they're prioritizing investment and efficiency to address again growing backlogs, material, labor challenges, everything you talked about?

Githesh Ramamurthy

Analyst

Yes. In fact, I was at our trade show just day before yesterday talking to many of our repair customers. And what we see across the board is just as a reminder, we also have a lot of independent customers, repair facilities as customers. So when we say we have 27,500-plus customers, it is made up of multi-store operators. It's made up of independence. So it's a pretty large share of both that are there. What we are seeing is that the pressures that they have in terms of labor shortage, inflationary costs and many of the things that we pointed out, people are looking to save time. Time is the 1 thing that if they can have technicians and others be highly productive. So part of our solutions eliminates, simplifies things. So as an example, CCC ONE, all of the capabilities of CCC ONE streamlines the operation of not only multi-store operators, but also independent repair facilities. And as we add functionality like Diagnostics, Diagnostics has a dramatic impact on improving the entire flow between OEM procedures to connecting to insurers. So what we're seeing across the board is people are seeing volume come back, but at the same time, the drive for more digital capabilities, more efficiency we are hearing that across the board from our repair customers as well.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from David Kelley of Jefferies.

David Kelley

Analyst

Thanks for all the color on the lapping of your large expansion deals from last year. But maybe regarding the new top 20 expansion deals you announced this morning, how should we think about contribution from the new deal going forward? And also curious if there's any other major contracts potentially up for renewal in the coming months that we should be considering?

Brian Herb

Analyst

Yes. David, it's Brian. I'll take that. Yes, so within the deal, I mean, we highlighted a top 20 renewals. Within that renewal, we had several products that were included as a cross-sell. We highlighted it also because of the term, right? So it's a 7-year term and really highlights the commitment this carrier has for CCC. You think about that in just our normal step-up of growth sequentially. So when you look at our absolute dollars, you see each quarter, it's building -- it's going to be part of just that natural step-up of cadence and nothing particular to highlight on this deal within the guidance that we're seeing for Q4. And when we talk about the guidance for next year. We are always working with our clients on cross-sell and expanding their bundles. And so that's just the natural cadence and we'll continue to do that as we think about next year and our growth, we'll be always cross-selling and upselling into our client base. So it's kind of standard operating procedure with the way we work with our clients.

David Kelley

Analyst

Okay. Got it. And then we're starting to see used vehicle values soften from really high and frankly record levels. This will have implications for vehicle total rates and clearly, your repair facility customers. I was hoping maybe you could walk us through how this trend impacts CCC and clearly, not nearly to the extent given your recurring revenue stream, but high level how do you think about a market where used vehicle values are starting to correct from really robust post-COVID supply shortage-driven levels?

Githesh Ramamurthy

Analyst

Sure. So first and foremost, what I want to make clear is that we have deliberately designed our business model so that we have -- our goal for our clients is to give them the correct answer every single time. So it's very important that whether a vehicle should be repaired or a vehicle should be totaled, it's important to make the -- what is the accurate decision for that particular vehicle. With that said, as repair as total loss prices have come down, in fact, total loss valuation hit a $16,000 peak just a couple of months ago. So over a period of 20 years, total losses had gone from roughly $6,700 10,000 over 20 years -- and in the last 2 years, it went from 10,000 to 16,000. So we've seen a significant bump. What we're seeing very, very recently, literally in October, September, late into October is total loss percentages coming down from the 20% range, closer to 18%. And that is directly related to the softening of used car prices. The impact it has for our repair customers is that as total loss, it really starts -- even at these high levels, it increases the amount of repair. But for the CCC business model, it has 0 implications whatsoever one way or the other.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Saket Kalia from Barclays.

Saket Kalia

Analyst

Okay. Great. Githesh, maybe for you. Great to see the 14 carriers on Estimate-STP. I was wondering -- what do you think is there a catalyst to accelerate that adoption? And from CCC's perspective, do the economic scale as that adoption increase? So maybe you could just talk about that broad brush?

Githesh Ramamurthy

Analyst

Sure. So from a -- when you look at it from a customer standpoint, there's a number of factors that people are dealing with. One, vehicle complexity is increasing pretty substantially and with literally hundreds and hundreds of models and variations, what artificial intelligence can do is provide a capability that starts taking the photos, and we collect over 500 million photos a year and to really collect and translate that into how should -- what should be the repair estimate for this vehicle so we produce all the way down to a line level estimate. And as customers have started using it, they're finding substantial use cases in terms of speed, in terms of reducing complexity, in terms of jump-starting estimates for their own staff and sending a person out to go look at a vehicle can cost as much as $200. So these tools are not only having a significant impact on that, but it also dramatically improves the consumer experience after a claim because of the speed of which you can deal with this. So that's really what we see. For us, in terms of CCC, as the scale, when we look at the next 24, 36 months, we see Estimate-STP continue to roll out very, very nicely. And as that scale increases and the rollout increases, revenue, and there is a revenue increases commensurate with those rollouts as that take place. And again, even though as I mentioned in my call, that from January to September, we've seen a multiple increase in the number of Estimate-STP claims. On an overall basis for this year, it's still a very small number. So we are excited about what it can do for our clients, and we also believe very strongly this will be a revenue driver for us.

Saket Kalia

Analyst

Got it. Got it. Very clear. Brian, maybe for my follow-up for you. Great to see the software NDR continue sort of at that 110% range. Particularly given the tough compare from the big renewals last year, can you just kind of dig into what drove that? And I know we don't guide to the software NDR, but how do you sort of think about that ebbing and flowing in sort of the coming quarters?

Brian Herb

Analyst

Yes, absolutely. Yes. So we feel good about the 110% that we posted in the quarter. When you look at that versus historical levels, historical levels have been more of 106%, 107%. So feeling good on the trend and the traction. The 3 things I would highlight that really underpin that metric. One, we do see continued strong growth contribution from our digital solutions mobile, AI, Engage, some of the digital tax and fee solutions for total losses. So that's certainly playing through the number. We also see continued strength in our upsell at the repair facilities. And that is trending higher than our historical levels. And then the third piece is the large expansion renewals is still in the metric, although it's tapering off for Q3, but that also was part of -- that will go away in Q4. But as you think about the go-forward position, the guidance I would give you is about -- over time, we'll see about 80% of our growth coming from our existing installed base. And so you think about that over the long-term, that will flex a bit quarter-to-quarter, but that should give you a view of how to think about NDR in the overall growth equation.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Kirk Materne of Evercore ISI.

S. Kirk Materne

Analyst

Githesh, maybe following up a little bit on Saket's question. When we think about adoption of STP by your customers, how much of it is sort of a business process challenge for them to start integrating it into their sort of existing business processes? And is this something that has to happen from their perspective on a state-by-state basis? Or once they sort of do a proof of concept, the adoption can take place at a rate maybe not as linear. I'm just trying to get a sense on how you all see sort of the adoption? Is it a nice steady sort of push higher? Or are there opportunities for it to kind of go a little bit more exponential?

Githesh Ramamurthy

Analyst

Yes. So first of all, there is 0 need to actually go state-by-state. It is more in terms of tuning. There are literally hundreds and hundreds of parameters from an AI standpoint that have to be tuned. And every carrier has unique needs in terms of how we would like to do the tuning and we work with them on the unique tuning. So once you plug it in, we can literally roll this out across our entire platform across all our geographies. So it's not a technology issue. It is not a training issue so it's relatively quick. And because our customers are deeply integrated into the CCC platform with their systems and our systems. When we rolled out mobile several years ago, almost all our customers are using our mobile capabilities. In fact, the adoption of mobile in the industry has literally gone from 0 to 30% of all mobile claims are coming into the mobile channel. That means that consumers sent a link, consumer takes pictures, then the AI starts to work. So we are already -- so that part of the funnel is already built for consumers. And so the entire workflow, the process is already in place. And what this does is there are some adjustments to the operating process, and it's more of people getting comfortable with it. That's why we're so excited to see that we had 11 customers. Last quarter, we've added 3 more customers. And does that help, Kirk?

S. Kirk Materne

Analyst

Yes, that's very helpful. Yes, I was just trying to get a sense on whether there are sort of gating factors for adoption [indiscernible]. Brian, just on the big renewal this quarter, it's great, obviously, to see your customers so committed to CCC in terms of 7 years. Can you just remind us, are there any sort of pricing escalators built into contracts, maybe not this contract specifically, but in general, as inflation goes up? Or is it basically just still volume-based? I was just trying to get a sense of if there's any sort of pricing uplift over a period of a contract like that.

Brian Herb

Analyst

Yes. So it's a good question. I mean we are always looking at our strategic pricing and tuning. So like many SaaS providers, we'll look at the packaging. We'll look at the value we're driving for our clients, and we'll look to then make sure we're getting appropriate value back to us for bringing that solution to our clients. And so I'd say there's nothing new that we're doing on the back of inflationary challenges. We're continuing to just look at our pricing in a strategic way as we have historically. So that's the way I would leave it.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Tyler Radke of Citi.

Tyler Radke

Analyst

I wanted to follow up on the questions around the large renewal. Can you just remind us, are typically these large renewals within insurance carriers, a catalyst for them to take on more products? Or do the expansions kind of happen independently? And then just as you look out over the next 12 months, how does that renewal pipeline look relative to 2022? Are you expecting things to step up just based on the timing of some of your contracts?

Githesh Ramamurthy

Analyst

Brian, if you'll take the second part, I'll take the first one. So when you look at -- so first and foremost, whether people add additional components of our solutions or not, is really independent of whether we are renewing the contract or not. So because the platform is already in place as we bring new solutions on board, as an example, the 14 clients were Estimate-STP that can -- those solutions can be added to any -- regardless of what the contract comes on. Now interestingly enough, when people do renew and when those things do take place, there's an opportunity for both the customer and for us, as we look at the next several years in terms of adding additional functionality. So I would not say that there is anything unusual about contract extensions, having a link to rolling out additional solutions we have. And Brian, do you want to take the other part?

Brian Herb

Analyst

Yes. No, I would just reiterate the same point. I mean, we look at our opportunities in different ways. I mean some will be -- a renewal will be a catalyst to expand the broader bundle. We'll sell into that broader bundle and do a renewal. As Githesh said, sometimes we will just add a product schedule within an existing contract, and there won't be a renewal. Others -- these product extensions will be a driver to extend and drive a renewal. So they kind of work in all different ways. When we look at our pipeline, we feel really good about the opportunities we have in front of us, both with adding new product capabilities and renewing key deals as we go into next year. So we feel really good about where we sit with our clients and the renewal cadence and the cross-sell, upsell opportunities.

Githesh Ramamurthy

Analyst

And remember, many of our customers have worked with us for several decades.

Tyler Radke

Analyst

Yes. No, definitely aware that I can see that with the high retention and the strong relationships over time. Brian, maybe for you for the second question. How are you just thinking about the hiring environment here? I think CCC has had typically less churn certainly at the senior level from an attrition perspective, employee attrition relative to the peers? Have you noticed any changes for better or for worse in the hiring environment? And just how are you thinking about kind of the expense growth and headcount growth into next year?

Brian Herb

Analyst

Yes. Yes. So I would -- maybe I'll start with the second, and we'll come back to the hiring part, and I'll let Githesh add as well. I mean we remain extremely focused on balancing both our investment and funding our strategic innovation to really underpin our strategic agenda. And so we remain very focused on that at the same time, focused on margin progression. So because we're fortunate to have a very efficient business model, we can do both. We can put the funding that we need to drive the strategic initiatives and also see the margin progress over time. And we saw that this year as we moved from 38% margin to 39% margins, and we see that going forward. I also highlighted in our prepared remarks that we are seeing good progress in hiring. We added about 20% of capacity in our staff months on a year-to-date basis. So that's starting to show we are adding the necessary capacity to fund the innovation. We are not seeing anything dynamic or dramatic from changing in hiring. We are able to continue to make the key hires that we need. We're also seeing good low churn and attrition in our teams and managing high retention. So overall, we feel good where we are. We feel good as we go into next year and having both the capacity and the skill set that we need to set us up for the long-term. I don't know Githesh anything to add.

Githesh Ramamurthy

Analyst

I'd just add that, look, historically, we've had very low churn, and that continues. But most important, I would say 2 specific areas that the vast majority of the 20% capacity increase is really coming to 2 areas. First and foremost, in engineering, where we have full stack developers, where we have AI capabilities. We're continuing to add top talent into engineering as we roll these products out as well as product management. So I would say that's the vast majority of our recruiting, and we're able to recruit across geographies. And if anything, that becomes a little easier in the last few months.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Gary Prestopino of Barrington Research.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Githesh, I just want to -- wanted to ask this, with this STP Estimate-STP that you have out there, as insurers sign up for this, are there adjacent products that you are offering that are really must have to work with Estimate-STP, maybe on the repair side, maybe on the insurance side, wherever. So it just adds to the potential growth that you foresee from this product?

Githesh Ramamurthy

Analyst

Gary, the answer is yes. In fact, the Estimate-STP is really important to establish when we look at the broader concept of STP or straight-through processing. So that has implications on many, many facets of the claims process where we can apply artificial intelligence and other capabilities since we're already deep in the workflows with customers. So we are working with repair facilities of various -- of various types of repair facilities so that from engaging all the way from the consumer, we're adding components to our Engage product that's in the repair facilities. So we see work going on over there. We have work going on in everything ranging from subrogation where we had done acquisitions. So that's another example of an adjacency. We've got work going on in at first notice of loss, but you're exactly right that as people try, test, use and see a significant impact, this is why we remain so excited about the broader straight-through processing opportunity across our entire customer base.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Great. That's good to hear. And then just a quick 1 for Brian. With the nonrecurring deal that you had last year in Q4, you said it was a 2% contribution of revenue. I kind of looked at that, so that's about $4 million of revenue. Is that correct? And would most of that have flown directly down to EBITDA?

Brian Herb

Analyst

Yes. That's right, Gary. So last year, we had 2 points of nonrecurring impact in Q4, and we called it out at the time. So -- and that did flow all the way through. And you've seen it flow through in our gross profit. So gross profit in Q4 of last year was slightly elevated at 79%. And -- and that was part of the flow-through. But yes, you're looking at that correctly.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Arvind Ramnani with Piper Sandler.

Arvind Ramnani

Analyst · Piper Sandler.

I wanted to ask you about a little bit. It's a [indiscernible] company, where they've had a shorter view on CCC, but you have been around during some of the kind of periods of tough macro. So if you -- I know this -- these macro headwinds are different than prior, but just in the macro environment, can you maybe walk us through some of the puts and takes on your business? And assuming the macro remains tough, in '23. What are some of the things you anticipate from a business impact?

Githesh Ramamurthy

Analyst · Piper Sandler.

Arvind, you broke up a little bit, but I think I can give you a couple of thoughts on the macro environment. And so first and foremost, you're dead right. We have been through several decades of various environments. For example, during the dot-com crash of 2000, we invested heavily to build and roll out our web-based solutions for the insurance market. And then during the 2008, 2009 financial crisis, we actually invested heavily in building out the CCC ONE platform that generates almost half of our revenues today. And then what we saw in 2020 with -- really with COVID is our customers need a dramatically different ways of connecting to the consumers, which really led to the adoption and investment in mobile and AI and other capabilities. So we have a history of actually understanding and dealing with all of these environments. And this is why we continue to maintain our close working relationships with customers that gives us an advanced view of the challenges that they have and we continue to build solutions. And having a very efficient financial model allows us to weather through this, but with all that said, we continue to monitor the environment pretty closely. And that's really -- so we've learned a lot from the history of how we've operated through various cycles. And we keep all those lessons learned very close to heart.

Arvind Ramnani

Analyst · Piper Sandler.

Perfect. And yes, I appreciate the perspective. But if I can ask for a follow-up, like how does the macro impact your business, right? Like in sense like if you end up in a recessionary environment, does that benefit you or in what ways does it benefit you? And what ways does it -- like persistent macro headwind to your core business?

Githesh Ramamurthy

Analyst · Piper Sandler.

Yes. When you look deep down -- when you look at our clients' businesses, the fundamental nature of what we do is mission-critical. And when you look at our customers' business, auto insurance is a mandatory product. People -- that is really the route and the fundamental thing that is -- that you have to look at. So people continue to drive, auto insurance is mandatory. While prices go up, accidents continue to be -- so the claim volume continues to be -- continues to go up gradually from pre-COVID levels. So I'm not sure that there's a much deeper answer but the fact that our business is rooted in an industry and an environment, which is not discretionary.

Brian Herb

Analyst · Piper Sandler.

Yes. Maybe just 1 other thing to add. It's Brian. You also look at our revenue model. It is very resilient. It's very predictable. We have the vast majority is subscription based, and it's reoccurring. And so you have to think about that as well when you think about kind of the macro environment.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Michael Funk from Bank of America.

Michael Funk

Analyst

Think about economic sensitivity. I understand the resiliency of the business model. But are you seeing any elongation of the sales cycle or a change in purchasing behavior amongst your customers?

Githesh Ramamurthy

Analyst

Nothing material that we're seeing.

Michael Funk

Analyst

Okay. And then maybe just 1 more, if I could. Just thinking about NDR, longer-term, your longer-term target there. How much of that will be driven by existing solution penetration versus developing new solutions to sell into the base?

Brian Herb

Analyst

Yes. Mike, it's Brian. I'll take that. So yes, so we've laid out the long-term model, we've highlighted as we go forward about 80% of our growth will come from our installed base to cross-sell, upsell, 20% from new logos. Within that 80%, we've highlighted that about 50% of it. So half of that will come from the more established solutions. And the other half will come from these newer initiatives that we've been talking about. So it's the Diagnostics, the STP, the Estimate-STP. So about half of it will come from these newer digital solutions.

Operator

Operator

There are no more questions from the phone line. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Githesh Ramamurthy for any closing remarks.

Githesh Ramamurthy

Analyst

Well, thanks, everybody, for joining us today. We are proud of our performance to date in 2022 for which I'd like to thank our customers, our CCC team members and, of course, our shareholders. We remain confident in our ability to continue to deliver on our strategic and financial objectives. And the durability of our business model continues to come through as we deliver innovation and operational efficiency for our customers. And we look forward to talking with you on our fourth quarter call in early March, if not sooner. And again, thank you very much for your continued interest. And on behalf of all my colleagues, thank you and a big shout out to all our CCC team members who makes CCC a great place every single day for our customers and for ourselves. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.