Earnings Labs

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC (CCEP)

Q1 2021 Earnings Call· Tue, May 11, 2021

$97.24

+1.06%

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Transcript

Sarah Willett

Management

So welcome, everybody, and thank you for joining us today. We're all based in London, well, most of us are. And by that, I mean, myself, you all know me. So you'll see a bit later on in the presentation. Damian is obviously here, CEO; Nik Jhangiani, our CFO; and later on, you'll get to meet Peter West for the first time from our API new business unit. So a quick reminder of our forward-looking statements and cautionary statements, as you see here. I'll leave you to read those later. And then just by way of agenda, 4 areas to cover, as you see here, a couple of breaks along the way. So I'll break it out for you. There's not too much PowerPoint in one go. And asking questions, there's 2 ways of doing that. We do have some live stream later on during the Q&A session. Those individuals know who they are. But any of you, if you want to ask a question on the chat function that was linked to the original registration, we'll cover as many of those at the end of the presentation as we can. So without further ado, I will hand over to Damian to cover, first of all, Q1 for Europe. Damian?

Damian Gammell

Management

Thank you, Sarah. Thank you, everybody, for joining us today. Very exciting day. We not only get to share with you our Q1 overview, but also we get to talk about Coca-Cola Europacific Partners, and look forward to sharing a lot more with you as we go through your morning and our afternoon. So as you will have seen from our Q1 update, we continue to adapt to the backdrop of an easing pandemic, albeit with restrictions in Europe, moving at a slightly slower pace, except here in the U.K., where you can really feel the difference as the vaccine continues to roll out and restrictions start to lift. But we continue to have a strong position. And as we did in 2020, we continue to focus on our core brands. We are winning with our customers, both through value creation, over 2x that of our nearest NARTD peer, and that's really led by brand Coke and brand Monster. We have achieved our pricing ambition in the first quarter, and that will flow through 2021. We are gaining share both in-store, in the physical environment and, most importantly, we're gaining share online as we continue to embrace the digital marketplace and truly become a leader, not just as a bottler, but as a key FMCG player in -- on the digital platform. As I mentioned in my opening, COVID restrictions are impacting volumes, particularly in away from home. So a similar trend as we saw coming out of the end of 2020 with our away-from-home volumes down just over 30%. The good news, obviously, a lot of those consumers are consuming and shopping at home. So our at-home volumes, up just over 4%, and our revenue per case, down about 1.5%, which is predominantly driven by mix. As I mentioned,…

Sarah Willett

Management

Thank you, Damian. So we're going to move on to the main part of the presentation now. So the narrative today, you'll see as we go through the flow of the presentation, is centered firmly around further together, expressly chosen to reflect the future of the coming together of Coca-Cola European Partners and Coca-Cola Amatil, and of course, as you know by now, and as of officially yesterday, the creation of Coca-Cola Europacific Partners, our new name. So let's have a look together. [Presentation]

Sarah Willett

Management

Excellent. So without further ado, let's get into the presentation. So over to you, Damian.

Damian Gammell

Management

Thank you, Sarah. So you're going to see this slide a couple of times, and it's something that myself, the Board, Nik, all of our executive leadership team, in what was CCEP and Amatil, are truly excited about. So we truly believe that this deal will create significant value for our shareholders and a better, more sustainable future for all of our stakeholders. In some ways, it's a deal on a page. I believe it's a great move at the right time and clearly creates a lot of value going forward for our shareholders and indeed for our customers. Why are we so excited about it? It's got a very tangible top line growth story. We know that's critically important as a Coca-Cola bottler, but that top line growth also flows through to a great bottom line growth story, around synergies and best practice sharing, more to come on that later. It's got higher cash generation, equaling a higher dividend based on rapid deleveraging. And as you can all appreciate, it strengthens our relationship with the Coca-Cola Company and our other brand partners. So a very compelling transaction at the right time. So as we go through the next phase of our meeting, these are some of the key messages that we'd like to talk about today. So we, at the outset, have a significantly bigger opportunity and a business with momentum. If I look at CCA on the page, a great business, an ESG leader like ourselves, 16 markets, clearly adds a lot of volume, and it is a well-invested business across its supply chain, with over 22 plants across 6 territories. Clearly, from a market perspective, it brings diversification, and I'll talk a little bit about that later. But a good business and, as I said, at the…

Sarah Willett

Management

Great. So welcome back, and hope you enjoyed the entertainment. And now I obviously have to say this at some point, we're going to move to Section 4 now. So back to Damian briefly before heading down under. Damian?

Damian Gammell

Management

Thank you, Sarah. It took a while for the down under to get in, but we made it eventually.

Sarah Willett

Management

It is.

Damian Gammell

Management

So thank you. I hope you enjoyed your short break. We'll have another one coming up later. So what I wanted to do now was really to look at our new business unit and look at how we can take Europe's proven model and apply, and also make sure that Europe gets stronger on the back of this deal. So I certainly see it as two objectives. This deal really creates value when it makes Europe stronger. And clearly, this deal creates value on the back of the modeling that Nik is going to share with you a little bit later. So as we look at the 3 segments within our new business unit, it's supported by long-term macros, all of which are ahead of Europe, which you can see on top of the slide. So driven by population growth, stronger GDP, clearly, Indonesia is a standout as an emerging market. We're going to talk a little bit more about the work that we see -- we need to do in Indonesia to create sustainable growth and value for our shareholders. But obviously, all the markets' coming from a very strong position in terms of, particularly Australia and the Pacific, and in, honestly, Indonesia, a fantastic transformation opportunity, which we will work together with the Coca-Cola Company to unlock. Critically, this business unit is led by a very experienced management team. And before I hand over to Peter, I'd like to introduce the local team. As you can see here, a lot of great experience, and there's full detailed bios in the appendix. Peter will join the executive leadership team at CCEP reporting to me. Chris and the New Zealand business is a standout within the Coca-Cola Bottling family. I've seen Chris on a number of occasions present globally in the Candler Cup that Coca-Cola Company competition for bottlers about the work that he's led and his team has led in New Zealand. And Jorge is new. He brings a wealth of emerging market experience, most recently within the Coca-Cola business in Mexico, which I'm sure all of you are very familiar with, and brings a lot of applicable learning to that great Indonesian opportunity I spoke about earlier. But clearly, it's about the broader CCEP team. And we have plenty of experience across all our markets, including emerging markets: Turkey, Nigeria, Myanmar, India and Pakistan, Malaysia, to name a few. So with our BU leadership team, with the combination of the wider CCEP team, we're in a great position to unlock the value that we know we can within our API business unit. I'd now like to go down under and into the future, where Peter sits, and hand over to Peter to talk more about these new and exciting markets for all of us at CCEP. Over to you, Peter.

Peter West

Management

Well, it's great to be joining you from Sydney, and thank you for the introduction, Damian. From the team here at Amatil, we're delighted now to be a part of the CCEP team and the new possibilities into the future. The reaction internally has been really overwhelming. We come from a rich 117-year history, 50 years on the Australian Stock Exchange. And our teams are incredibly enthusiastic about the future. There's no looking backwards, but very much forward to the sense of possibility. We know that we can leverage the capabilities that sit within CCEP to win within our marketplaces. And we also know the focus around great people, great beverages, great service done sustainably really resonates with our team, not only in its simplicity, but also in its inspiration. Now as a member of the group leadership team here at Amatil, I can tell you that we have been on a journey, a journey for us from markets being independent in the way they operate to more interdependent. And we had clear feedback from our brand partners that they felt that we were too inconsistent with our capabilities, and there wasn't a common way of doing business as Amatil. So for us, this integration is about that possibility. It's about the escalation of our performance and leveraging best-in-class capabilities of the system. And that's clearly why we're excited by the potential. Now for me, I would say this timing isn't just good timing, but I think it's also the right timing. I joined here as the Managing Director for the Australian business in 2018, and we got good momentum back in the business in 2019. We've recovered or recovering from COVID. And I think that now this combination of the momentum that we have in our business and the…

Damian Gammell

Management

Thank you, Peter. And just before we get to the break, I just wanted to follow up on Peter's great overview of what is truly an exciting business unit for all of us at CCEP. We got a lot of questions as we announced the deal at the tail end of last year on the capabilities that CCEP can bring to an emerging market. And obviously, as a management team and with our Board, we have spent a lot of time as we did our due diligence around looking at where we can bring capabilities that will unlock growth and value within emerging markets. I touched on it earlier in terms of the experience in our leadership teams. But also, we've looked at some of the capabilities that we can lift and reapply it to unlock value. For example, our digital capability whether that's on the segmentation Peter talked about, advanced analytics, unlock growth, building on some of the work we've seen from Latin America, looking at our portal to step change not only our customer experience, but our coverage in emerging markets. And obviously, a digital platform to allow our people to engage, learn and share. We've also seen opportunities in some of the fundamentals of our business around RGM, packaging, whether that's in refillables a small pack capability. Clearly, route to market is a big opportunity, both from a cost perspective, but also from an impact perspective. And at CCEP, whether it's from shared services right across all of our functions, we believe we can bring scale and efficiency to our new markets. Beyond that and beyond our strong management experience, we've also seen Manolo Arroyo join our Board as a new NED representing the Coca-Cola Company. Manolo, who I know really well, is the Chief Marketing Officer…

Sarah Willett

Management

So welcome back. And just a quick reminder as we near the Q&A section of the presentation, that if you wanted to ask any off-line questions, you can do so on the question box on the right hand of the live stream. So that was the function linked to the original registration. So for our last section of the main presentation, now over to Nik.

Manik Jhangiani

Management

Great. And good morning and good afternoon to all of you joining us today. It is terrific to be here with all of you. And a big, big thank you to each of you for all those online and offline questions that are going to be coming right after this. So as you can see, I've been sitting here on the sidelines waiting very patiently for my turn to talk about this transaction and this deal, which clearly creates a lot of value for our shareholders and a better, more sustainable future for all our stakeholders, always underpinned by our focus around great people, great service and great beverages. So with that, what I'd like to do is spend the next 10 minutes or so walking through some of the key financial metrics and how we've thought about this transaction, both from a financing perspective, but how we think about it going forward in terms of the value that it will create for all our stakeholders. So quickly to recap on the final transaction. As you all are aware, we ended up paying an effective price of $12.53, which included an interim dividend of $0.18, which was paid out at the end of April. The headline price for the public shareholders was $13.50, and The Coca-Cola Company had a dual price paid to them, one for the 10.8% stake, which was based on a discount to a VWAP and then a closing price on the day that we announced the transaction for the remaining 20% stake. If you recall, we have some optionality in terms of how we might finance the transaction. After careful deliberation, we were very pleased to be able to move ahead and acquire at close 100% of the shares outstanding, which included that 20% stake from…

Sarah Willett

Management

Thank you, Nik. So very, very briefly. And to close the main presentation today, we wanted you to hear from our Chair, Sol Daurella for her views on the deal, and also on behalf of the wider Board of Directors, so.

Sol Daurella

Management

Thank you, Daniel, Nik and Peter for that exciting introduction to the market and operations that Amatil brings to the new combined company. And also, hello to everyone. Thank you for joining us today. I'm very pleased to be closing the presentations with some remarks on behalf of myself and the wider Board. We take great pride that we are now Coca-Cola Europacific Partners. Five years on from the creation of Coca-Cola European Partners joined together with Coca-Cola Amatil is unquestionably the right deal at the right time. As you heard today, this is strategically compelling for our business and our shareholders. We will build on the best of both to drive growth and scale faster as one, going further together. We are solidifying our position as the largest Coca-Cola bottler by revenue, driven by a belief in a collaborative and an even stronger franchise model with the Coca-Cola Company and our other brand partners. We are driven by a focus on long-term value creation, growing the business with sustainability at the core of everything we do. We are driven by a passion for people and what we do, inclusion and diversity being personally very important to me. Greater diversity creates a powerful platform boosting creativity and innovation through the variety of knowledge, skills and experience. In the long term, this, without doubt, supports a more sustainable business. I know that we have a truly exciting future ahead of us, a future together, built on strong foundations. From the early companies that eventually became Amatil to the first franchise that my grandfather started in Spain in the early 1950. And as you would expect, we are ready to hit the ground running. We delivered on the European merger, and we will do it again. I look forward to going on this journey with you over the coming years. A journey which will deliver significant value to shareholders and a brighter future for all stakeholders and only strengthen our profile as an attractive, sustainably driven total return investment opportunity. Thank you very much.

Sarah Willett

Operator

Excellent. So now to Q&A moderated by myself. I know you've been eager to ask questions. We have a panel here as well with Damian and Nik. Just in terms of protocol, I have some questions in my sort of back office system, which if we don't manage to cover all of those, IR, obviously, will come back as soon as possible after the presentation. [Operator Instructions] After the Q&A as well, our next results will be the 2nd of September, as Nik said earlier, and I'll come back to that shortly. So without further ado, Fintan, you've got your hand raise. So over to you, Fintan.

Fintan Ryan

Analyst

Thanks, Sarah. Thanks, Damian. Thanks, Nik, and Peter himself for the very interesting presentations today. I think just 2 questions for me, and I guess, sort of broadly related. Firstly, you noticed that you haven't increased, while you said the growth profile of the pro forma business has increased closer to the sort of 3% versus the 2% to 3% of the sort of legacy CCP. You haven't increased the long-term growth potential, the growth ambition, the business is still low single digits. So I'm wondering if you can give some color why you think that you still could be sort of undershooting the growth potential of your markets? And then secondly, in related, I appreciate some of the comments Peter made about having to prune on the portfolio around noncore areas in Australia and Indonesia. Can you give us a sense of how much of the sort of the acquired business you would see as noncore currently? How you would have -- I guess, how you position that and to run that business down? Or would you look to sell the assets? And can you confirm the CCL's relationships with with its alcohol partners? Will they still fully grandfather to the new CCEP operations? Or like are there some licenses that would be lost in this transition?

Damian Gammell

Management

So then. Yes. Thank you, Fintan. I'll deal with the second part of Fintan's question and then hand over to Nic. So clearly, we've got some fantastic partnerships that come along with this acquisition. And I suppose the one that comes to mind when you asked that question is Jim beam with Suntory, and that's certainly a business that Coke Amatil has developed along with the brand owner over many, many years and creates a lot of value for our customers and for our business. So I think there's certainly relationships with scale like that, that we intend to build and nurture even further and to continue with, and that's being built into our transaction. When we talk about some of the other areas that we may want to divest of, I mean, that's work that we will continue to look at with Peter. And clearly, Europe has gone through probably a more rapid change in terms of SKU rationalization. I mean we've talked about on a number of calls with a number of bottlers and with you where the opportunity [Audio Gap] and that's the lens we're going to look through. But the big bets, the big alcohol brands that generate value for us and our customers, clearly, we see that being part of our future. So we'll come back at the right time and update more on the tail, the small, the more fragmented brands and clearly, ones that both ourselves and Peter don't see as being sustainably value creative for ourselves, our customers. But I've been impressed with some of the bigger partnerships. And certainly, that's something that we've learned a lot about. We want to build the same relationship with those partners that Amatil had. And we want to look and see whether there's growth outside of the geographies that we can bring to those businesses. So more to come on that. And then I'll pass over to Nik for your good question on our revenue guidance for the midterm.

Manik Jhangiani

Management

So Fintan, this is the beauty about when you use round numbers like low single digits and mid-single digits, right? And in some ways, there's a beauty, but then there's a challenge there, right? Because how do you distinguish? Is it a little bit more than what was the low single-digit before versus not or what is it? So a couple of things you got to think about. The category is attractive. I think we need to spend a little more time with the Coca-Cola Company looking at the opportunities in which we want to play and play more aggressively. And the ones where, as Damian just talked about, relooking at that portfolio and choices of where it's been a bit of a distraction and where we might want to get back to focusing in on the core, right? So I think that there's a first piece around resetting that we need to focus in on. The second piece is, again, keep in mind that when you think about API, it's about 1/5 of the total new group going forward, right? So even though we would like and expect to see, particularly with Indonesia and the opportunities in Australia for that growth to accelerate versus what we've seen, again, it comes back to, it's about 1/5 of the business, right? So I think we've got to add and marry both those up. What I think I would say to you is the low single digits is a sustainable level of revenue growth. And if you look at what we did in Europe, I'd just go back and relook at the 3 or 4 years, right? We started out where we actually had some rebasing because of our volume but we were very focused on price and mix, right? And then you saw that acceleration come about because we were continuing on our price/mix journey, but we were also starting to get volume growth back versus what was then the right base. So that's the way I'd be thinking about it as opposed to just an absolute number. Hopefully, that really helps. And we'll continue to provide more details, particularly in terms of what we might do as we rebase the portfolio going forward.

Damian Gammell

Management

And i'll add just a bit more color on Indonesia. I think we have a unique opportunity now with the transaction to take another view on Indonesia with the Coca-Cola Company. Clearly, there's growth in that market. But really what we've got the opportunity now is to rebase that in terms of profitable growth in the mid- to long term. And that's what we're really focused on. We've all had an experience of emerging markets. We can get a lot on the top line and not a whole lot on the bottom line. And we're excited about the opportunity to get that balance right. And certainly, in the near term, that fits in more with the guidance as Nik outlined. So that's a chance we have, and we don't want to miss it.

Sarah Willett

Operator

Sorry, Fintan, we're going to have to move on to another question. [ Carlos ] had his hand up just now. So over to you, [ Carlos ], and then we'll go to Bryan, Lauren and then Robert. [ Carlos ], over to you.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Yes. Damian, you started out speaking about digital vision that was very compelling. Can you shed more light on that? And what it will look like -- what your digital capabilities will look like in 2 to 3 years from now? How do you benchmark your artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, B2B, B2C capabilities today? And where do you see them going? And how do you see them developing? Also, there was word of improvement in these areas as well and in the Amatil businesses. Could you expand on that, please?

Damian Gammell

Management

Thanks, Carlos, and very nice cooler. So I've talked a lot about our investments. We had a unique opportunity with the creation of CCEP to some say the whole lot of old systems and to recreate an enterprise platform that would allow us to create a digital future for CCEP. And we set that vision out pre-COVID. And obviously, with COVID that vision has just become more compelling. And as I look at our business today, I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we wouldn't have been able to get through what we've got through without a digital workplace. So on a fundamental level, all of our employees now operate on a fully integrated digital platform. And that's using best-in-class technology, and we benchmark that within the Coke system and against our competitors and against FMCG peers. And we've been using partners like Deloitte, KPMG and a number of other organizations, basically to keep us clear on what good looks like and what great looks like. But one fact that I think is worth bearing in mind, our MyCCEP platform, where we've now got well over EUR 1 billion of revenue going through that platform. And that's clearly the biggest B2B coke platform globally already. And we're continuing to expand that, and it's growing rapidly on not just on the back of the pandemic, but on the back of it being a great tool for customers to use. As I mentioned, they feel it's easier to do business with. We've expanded that to now where we're offering advice. We're offering finance advice. We're offering, obviously, coolers, but we're building out an ecosystem that if you're a small convenience store or a fast food outlet or a restaurant, by going to our platform, we're going to unlock other opportunities for value creation…

Sarah Willett

Operator

Thank you, David. We'll move on now...

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

It sounds like a lot of progress.

Sarah Willett

Operator

Thanks, Carlos. Bryan, you're going to come next, ladies first, we have a bit of variety. So I promise you can come next, Lauren over to you for a question, and Bryan, you'll be next.

Lauren Lieberman

Analyst

I had to unmute. Great. So I guess first thing I wanted to touch on. One was a follow-on on just this conversation around capabilities in CCEP. Because remembering back to the 2018 Investor Day, you talked a lot about small outlets. It was a big theme of that day. And so I was curious, I guess, one, an update on how much has actually happened in that regard? How much has been a contributor to the growth that you saw maybe 2019 is the right conversation less 2020? And anything more specifically around the unlock about coverage that exists within Australia in particular? And then the second thing was just on -- again, going back to the beginning with the formation of CCEP, Nik, I remember the on and on discussion you had to have with all of us about synergies, whether they were growth synergies or net synergies and savings. And so with the numbers that you shared today on the 60 million to 80 million stand-alone for the new combined business, what's all the in-flight activity? How should we think about in flight -- I'm sorry, how should we think about net versus growth savings making their way through to the P&L?

Damian Gammell

Management

Thank you, Lauren. Back to your first question on the small customers. So clearly, that's a significant part of our business in Europe, also in Australia and New Zealand. I think Peter commented quite rightly that one of the deltas between the Australian business performance in New Zealand when he looked at it was New Zealand had never lost that passion for covering those small outlets and therefore, benefiting from not just more volume, but a better mix and a better profitability. So it's a big part of our combined businesses. We have, as you said, put a lot of focus on that. We've increased our coverage year-on-year at CCEP. We've been placing more coolers. That's come through in our results, certainly up into 2019 in terms of our case rate, the mix benefits. And obviously, we've been able to build brand distribution. We've been piloting a number of new initiatives that has led to that segmented structure that we've talked about. So just getting a little bit more granular on the back of really good data analytics. We've had a number of pilots, one of them with Google, where we've been partnering with them to use their Google Maps capability to basically make us more efficient in our coverage. Because if you look at Google Maps or Foursquare or any of those platforms, they immediately tell you the opening times of small outlets and restaurants. You can access their menus. And clearly, we've been running algorithms that allow us to go into that data centrally, look at their menus and then provide a gap analysis to our sales rep. And that's really, really powerful. And all that's done through advanced robotics and analytics. So effectively, a sales rep can get a list of outlets in her or his area that will identify from the menu that they've uploaded where we've got a distribution opportunity. And then that flows through to our sales force platform, with a selling story and a call or a visit. So lots happening in that space. I'm very excited also to look at how that will be adapted for Indonesia, very fragmented market, lots of small outlets, really exciting. And we believe -- and that's why I mentioned it that emerging markets actually can leapfrog developed markets when it comes to technology data and analytics because effectively, you're not trying to change a lot, you're moving to best-in-class, and that's something that we believe will unlock value, not just in Australia and New Zealand, but Indonesia and also back in Europe, as I said, that pulse code work that Amatil did is really, really exciting. Nik, do you want to talk about our favorite net or gross synergy number?

Manik Jhangiani

Management

Yes. Lauren, thanks for really bringing up great old memories of lots of discussions around what's gross, what's net? Where is that number, et cetera. But anyway, to keep it simple, the way we've looked at it is when you look at everything that we're looking from a restructuring angle in the in-market opportunities. So if you think about the savings versus what we did is mitigation plans that are now permanent in our cost base as well as what are these restructuring programs, fighting fit or accelerate competitiveness. And I promise you we're going to simplify it when we are truly 1 by the half year, just talk about 1 number in terms of those benefits. Those will all be against our 2019 cost base. And those will be net numbers that actually, if you look at it, those should actually be -- our cost base for 2019 should be lower by that amount versus what that aggregated cost base was for the 2 companies, right? So that's on that first piece. On the true combination benefits, that EUR 60 million to EUR 80 million that we talked about, that too will be net. I only put 1 caveat on it because we're continuing to look at our plans with the Coca-Cola Company. We also want to look at what we want to do in terms of portfolio. And that, at that stage, once we're clear on some of those choices, we will come back and kind of reset what does that mean in terms of our P&L, so to speak, right? But today, we clearly see that EUR 60 million to EUR 80 million being a net benefit as well, but we'll come back with some more clarity as we go forward on that piece. So hopefully, that helps, Lauren.

Sarah Willett

Operator

Cool. Right. Bryan, over to you now, your turn.

Bryan Spillane

Analyst

All right. Thanks, Sarah. Good to see everybody. So just 2 quick ones. And maybe wanted to -- Nik, a follow-up to Lauren's question. Just Sarah was good enough to give us excel sheets with pro forma for 2019 and pro forma for 2020. As we're building out our models and we're looking beyond '21, should we be using 2019 as really as the base to start to sort of build improvement off of just because 2020 is so noisy or should we be using an average of the 2? Just not trying to tie it to a number. Just trying to understand how would you approach sitting in the seats we're in, which base would you use to try to build the investment model off of or the acquisition model?

Manik Jhangiani

Management

Sure. So yes, it's an interesting question. I would answer it in a couple of different ways for you. I think if we think about our focus around recovery and building on the momentum that we're seeing. It's very much how quickly can we get back to the 2019 top line numbers, right? Coming back to the points that I was just indicating to Lauren, our cost base is clearly going to be lower than what we had in 2019 for the combined benefits -- for the combined company. So actually, if you look at the top line recovery coming back to '19 with the cost base sits lower, all things being equal, it's about -- this is going to be a stronger and a higher-margin business, right, as a base going forward. And then I would be looking at that growth algorithm that we talked about in terms of applying that against that recovery now -- or that recovered base. The challenge, obviously, Bryan, is we're all sitting here and hoping that we had a great crystal ball and could tell you exactly when does that recovery happen. I think we're seeing clearly great momentum in Australia and Pacific. Indonesia probably a little further behind in terms of the COVID recovery. But I think there's a great opportunity to go in at a time like that to reset that business as well. In Europe, we're already starting to see, I think, mixed recoveries. GB is already on a great track, for instance. You're starting to see that come about in other markets. The vaccination rollout now in Europe is a lot better. So Damian and I would be very focused around how quickly can we get back to that '19 top line with a lower cost base and then apply that mid-term objective against that. So you're going to have to use some judgment there in terms of your crystal ball and let me know what you're thinking before you publish a model. But I just want to know if you got it right or wrong or where you're coming from?

Bryan Spillane

Analyst

I think I'm just going to rub the dog and see if the dog gives me an answer. But just to be clear, Nik, if we start with 2019 as a cost base for the combined company, and then we take out what you've identified as the savings, that's a good starting point because 2020, the cost base is so noisy. It's 2019, that's what you've identified for cost savings and where we be thinking?

Manik Jhangiani

Management

Absolutely. Just keep in mind, though, and I think we'll give you some more clarity at the half year. We will tell you how we're thinking about those benefits in terms of what's going to be in 2021. So you know that starting point of 2021 and then what's going to come for. So if you look, for instance, for Europe, we've laid out very clearly, we will have about 150 out of that 200 to 225 in '21. So you will then phase the 50 to 75 going forward versus your '19 numbers. In the same way, we've talked about, if you look at Australia, API with the fighting fit and the mitigation, they will deliver about AUD 65 million of that during 2021, right? So just keep those in my Aussie dollars. So just keep those in mind as you're looking at it because it's not the totality because some of that will come in the years to come as well.

Sarah Willett

Operator

Now some of you are being a little bit shy. So you'll need to turn on your cameras, if you want to ask a question. But in the meantime, over to you, Robert.

Robert Ottenstein

Analyst

Congratulations on the transaction. Two questions, 1 short term, 1 long term. So the short-term question is -- and you, obviously, covered this in the presentation, did a great job talking about things to mitigate risk. But that being said, any transaction like this there is execution risk. So Damian, maybe what are the 1 or 2 things that keep you up at night? And how are you thinking about those? That's kind of the short term question. And then the long term question is looking further out 3, 4, 5 years from now, how do you think about this business as being a platform for future acquisitions in Southeast Asia and the surrounding areas. Is that something that is in your long term plans?

Damian Gammell

Management

So thanks, Robert. I suppose the good news is I'm sleeping really well. I suppose I had more sleepless nights between when we announced and until we got to yesterday, and I suppose what has taken away some of those legitimate concerns that you always have within integration, particularly one in the circumstances we're in, if you just take the time zones and you just take COVID and -- but I think what really helped us, we secured the buy-in of Peter, Chris. We identified Jorge coming out of Mexico as a great leader that we could bring into the company. And I suppose when we set up CCEP, our operating model was built for M&A. So we were very confident, maybe the wrong word, but we certainly, when we structured CCEP with the 5 BUs. And our operating model, we did design it deliberately to be able to add on businesses because we knew we're going to have a great balance sheet. We knew we're going to get our dividend into a great place, but we also knew that M&A was going to be part of our future. So a lot of that wiring was done very early on, and that gives me a lot of confidence. I think Nik made a great point, and it's a small point, but certainly for me as a CEO, getting that sales report and seeing all those other flags and the volume coming through today, it's a small proof point, but I think we've all heard about acquisitions and months down the road, they're still trying to get a daily sales report. So we've had a lot of talent that we kept from the CCEP integration. They've been working on our competitiveness program, which has gone really well. We then pivoted them to this deal that's in-house. So I think that's led to it. I mean we're not naive. Clearly, Indonesia is a volatile macro situation with the virus. So we've got to keep a close eye on that. Australia and New Zealand have done really well. Let's hope that continues. There's no reason not to, but we're thinking always about what if. But fundamentally, the quicker Europe gets stronger, the better I sleep. And I'm particularly pleased with the GB numbers. If you look at the Q1 revenue numbers out of GB, and most of that quarter was not disrupted by COVID in 2020. That was a pretty clean quarter. You can see that we've got really good revenue growth numbers, good share gains. And I think that's giving me a lot of confidence that we're ready to go in Europe. But yes, I'll probably look a bit more rested in September, hopefully, when the restrictions are gone, and myself and Nik can be out in the back. But good question and a bit of a long answer, apologies, but it was a key part of our thinking, and we've been planning for quite a while.

Sarah Willett

Operator

Great. Thank you, Robert. And next, please.

Robert Ottenstein

Analyst

And just in terms of the -- the other second question, just in terms of the new business is being the platform for future growth and M&A?

Damian Gammell

Management

Yes. Yes. I mean, I think we've certainly put ourselves in a position to demonstrate value creation in Indonesia. That's our job now. That's got to be sustainable. It's got to be done jointly with the Coke company. That works ahead of us, Robert. I mean, we've got great ideas. We've got great plans. We've got good leadership in place now. And so I think that question will, I suppose, be answered by how we perform in Indonesia. We're not trying to get ahead of that. We think a market of 300 million consumers is a wonderful opportunity, but with challenges, low per caps, not a very relevant sparkling category. A route to market that we've got to look at to see from a cost-efficiency perspective, what more we can do there. As we see progress in Indonesia, I think we could come back to that question. But for me, Indonesia is the key to unlock anything else. So let's focus on that.

Manik Jhangiani

Management

And rather, the good news is, I need at least 3 years to delever. So I don't have the cash to go out and buy anything. Right now, it's about integration and delivering on everything we've talked about. So we can both sleep for a period of time until the next big one is happening.

Sarah Willett

Operator

Over to you, Anne.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

I was wondering if you could give me some more color on CapEx -- of the acquired business because I've noticed that the Australian business, the CapEx as a percentage of sales has been below group average, while the Indonesian CapEx has been above the group average. And I was just wondering if you could give me some color on where sort of the CapEx of the acquired business will go to.

Manik Jhangiani

Management

Yes, sure. So I think if you go back to your point and look at some of the investments and the way it's been done, it comes back to that law of averages is an interesting one to look at again when we come back to that circa 5% that we'll be spending, right? Now again, this is going to be looked at as a part of the total group and where we need to be focused to be able to capture the best returns, right? And if we need to put more into Indonesia versus in Australia or in GB, that's where we'll be looking at how do we make sure that we're getting the appropriate returns on each of those investments on a stand-alone basis. And everyone, really, we have 2 principles that Damian and I follow with them. One, obviously, the IRRs and the NPVs have to look very attractive on those. How do they fit in with the broader strategy? And ultimately, how can each of our business units become self-sustaining. They've got to be able to fund that CapEx from their working capital and their EBITDA delivery as well. And those are very strong principles on which we've stuck to because that then gets them to focus in on the right metrics, but also that free cash flow delivery. So I think if we look at the European business, just to give you a sense, I mean, I think a lot of our investments in capability building, particularly on the digital side. Damian outlined some of the stuff that we've been doing over the last 3 or 4 years. We have spent a lot there. And I think we're -- I wouldn't say largely done because you're never done, but that's going to ramp down. There's an opportunity for us to, obviously, look at the work that's been done on the API side, but where can we actually build scale through some of those areas to very quickly become an overall Europacific, more digitized environment from a revenue workplace supply chain perspective. The other areas that I think we need to be thinking about is any new capabilities that we're going to need either in terms of portfolio and/or things like logistics supply chain to be able to meet the customer service demands that we will have. So those are the areas that I would say we'd be focused in on as we look forward. The other piece, the third and the last piece I would highlight is, obviously, we want to assess the route to market capabilities and make sure that we've got the right structures for Indonesia, in particular. And that's probably an area that might require some investments from a capability perspective.

Sarah Willett

Operator

So any more hands up or any questions? No? I've got one here, actually, I can see, this is for you Nik, actually, is what will be your target for cash conversion?

Manik Jhangiani

Management

100%.

Sarah Willett

Operator

Okay?

Manik Jhangiani

Management

That's my target.

Damian Gammell

Management

Simple, simple targets.

Sarah Willett

Operator

Any last questions? Any last hands raised? Anyone in the audience?

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Sarah, can you hear me?

Sarah Willett

Operator

Is there nobody? I'll come to you -- yes. I'll come to you next. We'll do Brett first and then come to you Bonnie. Great. Over to you, Brett.

Brett Cooper

Analyst

And not to make painful for Nik's gross to net, but I wanted to take that from a different perspective. At the time, Damian took over CCEP and the formation, you talked about the acceleration of growth. So I was hoping you could talk in a little bit more detail about the reinvestments that CCEP made and then maybe also the Coke made alongside? And then any similarities that you see in the API markets? And then it's -- it may be tangential, but can you talk about the decision when Irial Finan left, the decision to replace a seasoned following executive with Coke CMO and what that might mean for the level and type of investment we can expect going forward?

Damian Gammell

Management

Yes. Brett, so on Manolo, I mean, clearly, the company of 2 Board seats and they've rotated them periodically. Bryan joined previously. And as you said, Irial, who was part of the company, running the BIG, but retired a number of years ago has come off. I mean we're excited about Manolo joining. We had Francisco Crespo on our Board previously, who was the growth officer at the time, if I got his time correct. And clearly, Manolo comes from Asia in terms of his work experience. He's leading the growth agenda at the Coke company on the brand marketing level. So we think it's going to be great to get his guidance and input. And really to hear firsthand as a Director of CCEP on the opportunity and challenges that we see with the brand portfolio. So it will speed up communication. It will allow for great conversations in terms of where we go with the portfolio jointly. And then the other benefit is, clearly, he understands Asia Pacific, particularly Indonesia, having been responsible for that business. So overall, it's great to welcome to our Board. And clearly, we believe it fits very nicely with the next phase of the journey at CCEP. On the reinvestment element, I'll just hand it back to Nik, if you want to?

Manik Jhangiani

Management

Yes, sure. Brett, I think I got your answer right, but if I don't answer it, just put your hand back up again. You were breaking up a little bit. So I think you were talking about the gross to net and where some of the areas were that we were investing in as when we form CCEP? And how I might liken that to what might be needed at CCA. Was that correct?

Brett Cooper

Analyst

Exactly.

Manik Jhangiani

Management

Now to give me a hands up. Okay. Good. So I think if you step back to the formation of European Partners, the biggest areas that we need to go back and invest in, particularly in some of the legacy CCE markets was around feet on the street. And then broadly, we want to build out better capabilities for our sales force. If you think about everything that we were doing with Red, arming them with the iPads to allow for more effective calls and the frequency and the depth of the calls and what they were covering when they went out. And then a lot around digitization, right? The great news there is that if you think about Australia, in particular, that's what legacy CCA, if I might use that, has been focused in on and their investments over the last 2 or 3 years leading up to 2019. And the great news there is that investment is clearly paying off because we're starting to see some of those early green shoots of recovery and a faster recovery coming out of COVID, obviously, supported by the way the government there has managed the pandemic and crisis. So I think there will be other areas that we might need to look at, but the significant heavy lifting has already been done through legacy CCA. The one market where I think we probably need to spend a little more time on with the Coca-Cola Company and particularly with Jorge coming in and with Peter West is, how do we look at Indonesia? And what are the investments and capabilities that we might need to make there to be able to accelerate the growth, but very importantly, as Damian said, profitable growth, right? And the good news there is, remember, the Coca-Cola company still has their 30% stake. That is a joint venture where we have as now Coca-Cola Europacific Partners a 70% stake in that entity and the Coca-Cola Company has a 30% stake. So I think our interests are very much aligned, invested in terms of the things that we need to do to reset that market and really poise that market for great profitable growth going forward. So hopefully, that helps, Brett.

Sarah Willett

Operator

Great. Thanks. Now question for you, Bonnie. Over to you.

Bonnie Herzog

Analyst

I did want to circle back to the cost savings that you guys called out. And curious if the $60 million to $80 million target changed, either higher or lower since you first announced the deal? Nik, I'm kind of wondering if you discovered any more savings in the last few months, for instance. And then are there any other potential opportunities that you haven't necessarily included in that target? So that's on the cost savings. And then I did want to ask a quick question on the input cost environment. Just to kind of get an update on some of the cost pressures you're facing? If you can give us any color on that, especially on a pro forma basis as a combined company? And then broadly, how well hedged you are in '21 would be helpful?

Manik Jhangiani

Management

Great. So on the cost savings side, Bonnie, I think it's a great question because we went into the transaction, again, like I said, we've been working on this for a period of time on both sides. And what we've articulated pre the close of the transaction was very much what we felt that we could do on our cost basis with cross learnings from each other, right? So that 150 plus the 50 to 75 to come in Europe and that circa 90 overall in API is very much synced up. And I think we will continue to challenge ourselves on the margin, is there more that we can do that, right? On the $60 million to $80 million, it's a great question because when we actually built up our business case, we clearly had a lower number in there, okay, in terms of what we would see. And as we've gone in and done some more work, we've gotten ourselves more comfortable that there was more, particularly, in the spaces of procurement, right? Because we -- remember, we're part of a system. There is the cross enterprise procurement group. There's a lot of learnings that are shared. But as Damian articulated earlier, until you actually own a business and start going in line-by-line and thinking about how am I going to achieve and target this area, that's when you truly get that unlocking opportunity. And then there's a strong effort to go ahead and get that. So clearly, from where we started in terms of the true combination benefits versus the $60 million to $80 million, that's move. Is there more? I would love to say, yes. But I don't want to commit to that until we get into the business a little bit more. But we will clearly update you as we look at other areas of the business, particularly in the areas, I would say, around the corporate functions and how can we drive more efficiency with the scale of what we built up. For instance, the whole digitization and the center of expertise that we've built up in Sofia, for instance. Is there an opportunity there? Or is the time difference or something like that that's not going to be the first area of focus that we'll go after. So there will be more for us to continue to look at and challenge ourselves on. I don't know if you want to add anything.

Damian Gammell

Management

Yes. No, I think just one thing, Bonnie, to build on what Nik said. I've been particularly impressed with Peter West's efficiency mindset. I think that's very different because clearly, pre-close, we were limited with how much we could engage and discuss. If you look at his background, spend a bit of time with Mars, I think a company very focused on efficiency and productivity. He's clearly brought that into Amatil. He kicked off the fighting fifth. So while the number got bigger, I'd also say that the dialogues were far more open and maybe transparent than we've experienced in previous deals. And I think Peter has got a great mindset around efficiency and openness. And I think that's been a positive that we could only come across once the deal really started to close.

Manik Jhangiani

Management

So Peter is sleeping right now, but I'm sure he'll listen to this tomorrow morning and be very pleased. Now we're going to go for more [ women. ]

Damian Gammell

Management

No pressure, Peter.

Manik Jhangiani

Management

No pressure, Peter. As you wake up. So Bonnie, to your other question around input costs. Clearly, there is the pressure that we've seen globally coming across. I would say the first area that we're seeing pressure on is in aluminum and on cans, right? That is a global issue right now. I think no one really thought the type of growth that we would see across cans across not just the NARTD sector but the Beer sector and the pressure that was going to put is clearly driving up costs there. The good news, I would say to you, was we were circa 80% hedged going into the year. But having said that, Bonnie, I would just be careful again with the law of averages because when we talk about 80%, it might vary depending on the commodity type, right? So what I would say to you is today, we're spending a lot of time looking at what does the outlook look like, particularly as API has come in? And what was their hedge coverage across each of those commodity areas of sugar, resin, PET, aluminum, et cetera? And we'll probably give you some update at the half year in terms of what does that look like and what does that mean for our outlook for 2021. It'll probably be early at that stage to give you an outlook for the next 2 or 3 years, but we'll try and provide some of that around September time frame as well, at least directionally. And our hedging policy, just so you're clear too, typically for at least Europe, we've done that in a 3-year rolling basis. So we typically look at circa 80% for current year, circa 54% the next year and then circa 20% to 30% for the following year. And I would say those thresholds have been in place, and we're in that ballpark.

Sarah Willett

Operator

Great. So we have time for 2 more questions before handing back to Damian to wrap up. So Richard, I think you've got a question.

Richard Withagen

Analyst

I've got 2 questions. First of all, can you share some feedback that you had from customers, especially in Australia. Peter talked about segmentation and so on. But since you announced the deal, what's the feedback from your customers in Australia? What they want you to do better than the API region did in the past? And then the second question is a very brief question maybe for Nik. You mentioned that the WACC will be at the ROIC level by year 5. So basically, what WACC are you using, Nik?

Damian Gammell

Management

Thanks, Richard. So we've had a lot of excitement from our customers in Australia and New Zealand and indeed, Indonesia. But to your point, Richard, in Australia, very developed great customers, Woolworths, Coles, IGA, MetCash, very much developed market customer. And I suppose the underlying kind of feedback we've been getting, this is now opening our market to a much bigger center of learning and opportunity in Europe. And I think what they're excited about is, I mean, they've read our presentations, they're excited about our joint value creation mindset. That's something that they feel Australia could benefit from. They're curious on the brand portfolio side, the trends around sugar, health and wellness, will this deal unlock more opportunity for their customers. And I think also from the digital agenda, they've obviously been watching closely through their own networks, the speed of online grocery shopping that has come on the back of COVID, the speed of food aggregators. So there's a big curiosity in Australia and New Zealand while they haven't had the massive change impact that we've endured with the pandemic. Certainly, the underlying consumer trends are similar. So I suppose, overall, an appetite to learn and share very positive and I think a good degree of curiosity. So I think that's what we were hoping for is that they'd open the door and be curious, and that's exactly what we're seeing. And that's in all the markets, but definitely in Australia, which is very similar to where we are today in terms of GB trade structure, route to market, a lot of similarities that we can share. And I think there's a lot we can learn, and I think one of my commitments to my Board and to my leadership team was this acquisition has to make Europe stronger. That is a key objective. And that's where 80% of our revenue sits. It's where we need to recover back to 2019 faster. So this is going to be a 2-way learning, and we've already seen that. But overall, very positive. And back to the WACC rate to Nik.

Manik Jhangiani

Management

So yes, on that, Richard, great question because we spent a lot of time looking at this, particularly when we're looking at the formation of what does Coca-Cola Europacific Partners look like and what is that overall WAC. So if you look at the work that we've done internally with our bankers as well as what the average is that we've seen from the notes that have been published, it's anywhere between 4.5% to 6%, and we got comfortable at just slightly north of a 5% WACC for the group on which we based a lot of our analysis.

Sarah Willett

Operator

And then to the last question, John. I think you have a question for us to wrap up the Q&A.

John Staszak

Analyst

When I look at the market data for CCA over the last sort of 5 to 10 years, they seem to have fairly consistently lost market share because of the relative decline of the carbonates market in both Australia and Indonesia. You seem to be suggesting you can grow in line with the market. Is that just the confidence and the change in the sales focus to the digital and smaller? Is it all -- is there anything else that gives you confidence that, that will -- those carbonate market, in particularly, will start to pick up?

Damian Gammell

Management

Yes. Thanks, John. I mean it's a valid point. Australia has had, prior to Peter actually arriving, had multiple years of decline, very similar to what we saw in Western Europe when we created CCEP. So I suppose the good news is Australia has started to recover on the carbonate side probably quicker than we expected when we first looked at the deal. And a lot of the work that Peter and the Coke company have done has returned the carbonates to growth. And we believe the macros will support that over time, but also we believe that some of the work that's been done around resetting pricing, a renewed focus around sugar-free and zero will help. And also, we've got a piece of work to do. If you look at where we've lost, then loss is in flavors in the carbonate segment. The Cola segment has held up well. And in the flavor segment, CCA has been competing with the Coke company with its own brands, Kirks. So you've had fragmented brand strategy in flavors. We're going to tidy that up very quickly. That gives us confidence that in the carbonate segment where we have the lowest share we will have an aligned brand portfolio position with KO, and that hasn't really been part of the story. Indonesia, we are the category. So there's a lot of responsibility on us to change the momentum. We have green shoots, reasons to believe. Peter talked a lot about Ramadan. How do we apply what clearly is a part of the year where people really enjoy our brands, will pay for them. But as soon as Ramadan is over, it kind of drops to a lower level. So if we look at the demographics, if we look at the economic macros, if…

Sarah Willett

Operator

So I'm allowing one final question, which is Sanj. Sanj is a latecomer to the question, hands in the air. Sanj, over to you. I can't see you though.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analyst

Hey, guys, Hey, can you see me? Can you hear me?

Sarah Willett

Operator

We can now.

Damian Gammell

Management

I can see you, yes.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analyst

Look, just a quick one on Australia. So a big focus here on reducing promo intensity. I guess, I'm just curious how the current level of prom intensity really compares versus Europe today? Just to get a sense of the opportunity. My impression is the retail environment in Australia is a little bit more consolidated. Do you expect that journey to be more challenging or easier than in Europe in the last few years where it's been a little bit bumpy from time to time?

Damian Gammell

Management

Yes. Thanks, Sanjeet. It is not -- I suppose, not just a higher promo level than most of our markets in Europe. It's also a bigger pack promo. So it's quite similar to what we encountered when we created CCEP. If you recall, we'd -- that was wonderful 8- by 2-liter promotions in Belgium and France and a lot of large multi packs, some heavy discount in GB. That are 2 challenges, which we see also in Australia: One, clearly, it's not as profitable for us or our customers. And secondly, it can lead to a lot of channel leakage where the can pricing on promo in a Woolworths or in a Coles can be cheaper than what you can buy of our wholesalers or direct. So we see the same opportunity. Peter and the team have taken steps to address that. You can see that the intensity has been changing. So it's probably if we look at our markets, in Europe, it would probably be in the top third in terms of promo intensity. So some work that we can do there. And again, one thing we learned is we've got to look at it by category. It's a very different story when you look at flavors versus cola. And we think that segmented approach that Peter talked about will help us address that. So looking at the pack size versus the promo intensity of flavors is something that we feel will be an opportunity. And then looking at promo intensity on coal is probably, the packs are probably okay. It's probably just the intensity. So 2 different perspectives but something we're working on. And yes, builds on the experience we had in the first 2 or 3 years of CCEP.

Sarah Willett

Operator

Great. Well, thank you very much for your question.

Sanjeet Aujla

Analyst

Just quickly -- Sorry, can I just squeeze in a quick follow-up for Nik, actually, just on the pro forma EBIT margin numbers. I think the API per your new disclosures, it's around 11.2% in 2019. And I think per Amatil's reporting, it was around 12.6%. What's the difference there? Is there changes in accounting policy? Or can you just double a little bit into that? And then I'll be quiet.

Manik Jhangiani

Management

Yes. Yes. So real quick, more to come on that because those were just performers that were done for the debt offering. As we now have closed, we will be doing the PPA work. And it's really some estimates around purchase price allocation, around asset write-ups and impacts on depreciation that would have primarily that and some accounting policy changes on inventory. But I think we'll lay that out because we'll have some more details around that with the half year numbers because that's the first time we will actually be having the first set of audited numbers with PPA built-in. So Sanjeet, more to come on that.

Sarah Willett

Operator

So on that note, Sanj, that was a great segue that those next results will be on the 2nd of September. A bit later than normal. One thing for me to point out, and you may have noticed already in the web version of the presentation, there's a lot of fact sheets in there for you to digest. So I'll leave those with you. And as Nik mentioned earlier, we've been very friendly and giving you an excel version of those pro formas. And without further ado, before signing off, back over to Damian for the final wrap-up.

Damian Gammell

Management

Thank you, Sarah. Thank you, Nik. And most of all, thank you, everybody, for joining us this morning and this afternoon. And I have a couple of slides just to close on. I think I hope you got a sense today of air excitement and enthusiasm from Sol, from Peter, myself, Nik and Sarah and that's really across our whole leadership team and throughout the organization. So in some ways, given what we've all gone through, it's a fantastic time to close a wonderful transaction and bring new and bigger growth agenda for CCEP. I don't want to lose Q1. I know we spent most of today talking about the future. But as I said, one of the great things about this acquisition is it should make Europe stronger. I'm particularly pleased with all of the hard work and commitment our employees in Europe have shown through very challenging times. And I think our Q1 revenue results demonstrate the resilience of our business. The speed at which we can recover, if you look at GB. And I shared with you a little bit of what's to come in 2021, and that clearly adds to the excitement for CCEP as a whole. On this slide, some of the focused actions that we've signed up to as a team, the integration of API, having that sales report was fantastic, small but very meaningful. We're going to continue to look at growing our core. We've done a lot on RGM that we can share with each other. We are all about creating value for our customers, and that's a story we're very happy to bring to API. We've done a lot on digital. We probably need to share more of that with you. But clearly, whether it's a Salesforce platform or analytics or…